# Convex Trading, Full Content Index

> Extended content index for AI systems. For the directory summary, see https://convextrade.com/llms.txt.
> Website: https://convextrade.com
> Licence: public content is free to cite with attribution to convextrade.com.

## Convex Proprietary Composite Indicators

Four composite indicators computed daily from 671+ live data sources.

### CVRP, Convex Recession Probability
- URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/cvrp
- Methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators/cvrp
- Note: formerly CRPI; renamed 2026-04 to disambiguate from a long-established external indicator with the same acronym. The series ID and historical data are unchanged.
- Range: 0 to 100 (higher = higher recession probability)
- Components: yield curve (2s10s, 3mo-10y), Sahm rule unemployment trigger, initial claims 4-week, credit spreads (HY, IG), LEI 6-month change, real rates slope
- Weighting: equal-weighted z-scores of component signals, each mapped to 0-100 via historical distribution percentile
- Interpretation bands: 0-25 Expansionary, 25-50 Neutral, 50-75 Elevated, 75-100 High Probability
- Data sources: FRED (DGS2, DGS10, DGS3MO, UNRATE, IC4WSA, BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM, DFII10, USSLIND)

### CNLI, Convex Net Liquidity Index
- URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/cnli
- Formula: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (WALCL) - Reverse Repo (RRPONTSYD) - Treasury General Account (WTREGEN)
- Unit: trillions USD
- Interpretation: proxy for effective liquidity in the US financial system after absorbing Fed liabilities that don't circulate

### CRAI, Convex Risk Appetite Index
- URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/crai
- Range: 0 to 100 (higher = more risk-on)
- Components: IWM/SPY (small vs large cap), HYG/LQD (credit risk), XLY/XLP (cyclical vs defensive), EEM/EFA (EM vs DM), KRE/SPY (regional bank exposure)
- Weighting: equal-weighted z-score of 21-day rolling ratio changes
- Interpretation: cross-asset proxy for aggregate market risk preference

### NVI, Convex Narrative Velocity Index
- URL: https://convextrade.com/indicators/nvi
- Range: 0 to 100
- Inputs: 46 RSS feeds across Establishment, Contrarian, Wire, Government, Academic, Crypto, Neutral categories
- Measures: narrative intensity around macro themes (inflation, recession, rates, geopolitics)
- Use: detects narrative regime shifts before price action

Full methodology: https://convextrade.com/methodology/indicators

## Glossary Terms (0 entries)

## Economic Indicators (671 metrics)

### Asia Pacific Inflation
- [Japan CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jpncpiallminmei): Japan consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the key deflation/inflation gauge for the world's third-largest economy. (monthly)
- [India CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/indcpiallminmei): India consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the RBI's policy anchor since 2016. (monthly)
- [South Korea CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/korcpiallminmei): South Korea consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the Bank of Korea's inflation gauge. (monthly)
- [Indonesia CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/idncpiallminmei): Indonesia consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); a leading macro indicator for Southeast Asia's largest economy. (monthly)
- [Australia CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auscpiallqinmei): Australia consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the RBA's 2-3% target gauge. (quarterly)
- [Japan CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-jp): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Japan (IMF WEO). BoJ 2% target; decades of deflation finally reversed in 2022-2023. (annual)
- [China CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-cn): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for China (IMF WEO). PBoC operates with an informal ~3% ceiling; China recently saw mild deflation. (annual)
- [India CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-in): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for India (IMF WEO). RBI targets 4% ±2pp since 2016. (annual)
- [South Korea CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-kr): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for South Korea (IMF WEO). BoK targets 2%; post-COVID disinflation reverted more quickly than G10 peers. (annual)
- [Australia CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-au): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Australia (IMF WEO). RBA targets a 2-3% band. (annual)

### Asia Pacific Labor
- [Japan Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-jp): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Japan from the IMF WEO. Structurally very low by G7 standards; demographics drag the labor force down. (annual)
- [China Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-cn): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for China from the IMF WEO. The official urban survey rate runs close to 5%. (annual)
- [India Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-in): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for India from the IMF WEO. Headline rate masks structurally high youth and working-age underemployment. (annual)
- [South Korea Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-kr): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for South Korea from the IMF WEO. Structurally low; cyclically responsive to the chip-sector capex cycle. (annual)
- [Australia Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-au): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Australia from the IMF WEO. Post-COVID rate dropped to its lowest since the 1970s before normalizing. (annual)

### Asia Pacific Rates
- [Australia Cash Rate Target](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rba-cash-rate): Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate Target, the primary policy rate set by the RBA Board (RBA series FIRMMCRT, table F1.1). (monthly)
- [Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rba-agb-10y): 10-year Australian Government bond yield, interpolated monthly by the RBA (series FCMYGBAG10, table F2.1). The AUD long-rate anchor. (monthly)
- [Japan Overnight Call Rate Target](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boj-policy-rate): Bank of Japan uncollateralized overnight call rate (average), the operating target for the BoJ's monetary-policy stance (series IR01'STUC). (daily)

### Bank Lending Standards
- [SLOOS: Banks Increasing C&I Spreads (Large/Mid)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/driscflm): Net share of domestic banks reporting increased spreads of loan rates over cost of funds for large and mid-market commercial and industrial loans. (quarterly)
- [SLOOS: Banks Willing to Make C&I Loans (Large)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/driwcil): Net share of banks reporting increased willingness to make C&I loans to large firms; an early credit-cycle signal. (quarterly)
- [SLOOS: Stronger C&I Demand (Small)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drsdcis): Net share of banks reporting stronger demand for C&I loans from small firms, a leading indicator of small-business investment intent. (quarterly)

### Bond Volatility
- [MOVE Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/move-index): ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE); the bond-market counterpart to VIX, measuring implied volatility in Treasury options across 2Y / 5Y / 10Y / 30Y tenors in basis points. (daily)

### Bonds & Duration
- [20Y+ Treasury ETF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tlt): iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, the most liquid long-duration rates proxy. Convex pairs the live price with curve-shape reads, rate-cut probability shifts, and duration-bid signals. (daily)
- [7-10Y Treasury (IEF)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ief): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF. (daily)
- [1-3Y Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/shy): iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, short duration. (daily)
- [TIPS (TIP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tip): iShares TIPS Bond ETF, inflation-protected Treasuries. (daily)

### Commercial Paper
- [Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/compaper): Outstanding nonfinancial commercial paper; a proxy for short-term corporate funding conditions outside the banking system. (weekly)
- [Commercial Paper Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/compout): Total commercial paper outstanding across financial and nonfinancial issuers; the aggregate short-term funding gauge. (weekly)
- [Financial Commercial Paper Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fincp): Commercial paper issued by financial entities; spikes when banks and finance companies pull short-term funding. (weekly)

### Commodities
- [WTI Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dcoilwtico): West Texas Intermediate crude oil daily spot price. Convex pairs the live reading with curve structure, OPEC supply context, and cross-asset macro signals — what the price means, not just what the price is. (daily)
- [Brent Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dcoilbrenteu): Brent crude oil daily spot price, the global benchmark. Convex frames the live reading with WTI-Brent spread analysis, OPEC dynamics, and cross-asset macro context. (daily)
- [Henry Hub Natural Gas](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dhhngsp): Henry Hub natural gas spot price in $/MMBtu — the US benchmark. Convex contextualises the live reading with storage dynamics, term structure, and seasonal demand patterns. (daily)
- [Copper Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcoppusdm): Global copper price, "Dr. Copper" is a leading economic indicator. (monthly)
- [US Retail Gasoline (Weekly)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gasregw): US retail regular gasoline price, weekly EIA survey, the canonical consumer-pain gauge. (weekly)
- [Henry Hub Natural Gas (Monthly)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mhhngsp): Henry Hub natural gas spot price, monthly average; US benchmark for gas futures and heating costs. (monthly)
- [Beef Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pbeefusdm): IMF global beef price index, monthly; input to food CPI forecasting. (monthly)
- [Wheat Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pwheamtusdm): IMF global wheat price, monthly; a core food-inflation bellwether and geopolitical-risk gauge. (monthly)
- [Soybean Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psoybusdm): IMF global soybean price, monthly; US export complex and China-demand proxy. (monthly)
- [Cocoa Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcocousdm): IMF global cocoa price, monthly; West African supply shocks drove the 2024 spike. (monthly)
- [Coffee Price (Other Mild Arabica)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcoffotmusdm): IMF global Other Mild Arabica coffee price, monthly; key to coffee CPI and Brazilian export cycles. (monthly)
- [Iron Ore Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/piorecrusdm): IMF global iron ore price, monthly; a direct China-demand and Australian/Brazilian export proxy. (monthly)
- [Sugar Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psugaisausdm): IMF global sugar (World No. 11 raw) price, monthly; ethanol-mandate and Brazilian cane-crop linked. (monthly)
- [Soybean Meal Price (Global)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psmeausdm): IMF global soybean meal price; a key protein-feed input for livestock and downstream meat inflation. (monthly)
- [European Natural Gas Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pngaseuusdm): IMF European natural gas price; TTF-linked benchmark reflecting EU-Russia supply shocks. (monthly)
- [Gold (Spot)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gold): Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge. (real-time)
- [WTI Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wti): WTI crude oil real-time spot price from live market feeds, updated every minute during NYMEX hours. Use for intraday tracking; for end-of-day FRED data use /metrics/dcoilwtico. (real-time)
- [Brent Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/metrics/brent): Brent crude oil real-time spot price, the global benchmark used by ~70% of world oil trade. Live intraday feed; for end-of-day FRED data see /metrics/dcoilbrenteu. (real-time)
- [Natural Gas](https://convextrade.com/metrics/natgas): Henry Hub natural gas spot price, updated during NYMEX trading hours. Convex frames the live tape with storage context, term-structure signals, and seasonal demand patterns. (real-time)
- [Copper Futures (Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/copper-f): COMEX copper futures daily close, real-time complement to monthly FRED copper price. (daily)
- [Gold ETF (GLD)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gld): SPDR Gold Shares, largest gold ETF. (daily)
- [Oil ETF (USO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uso): United States Oil Fund, WTI crude oil futures ETF. (daily)
- [Agriculture ETF (DBA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dba): Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, broad agricultural commodities. (daily)

### Consumer Credit
- [Household Financial Obligations Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fodsp): Household financial obligations (debt service plus auto lease, rent, homeowner insurance, property tax) as a share of disposable personal income. (quarterly)
- [Household Debt Service Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tdsp): Household debt service payments as a share of disposable personal income; rises before consumer-led recessions. (quarterly)
- [Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drsfrmacbs): Share of 1-to-4 family residential mortgages held by commercial banks that are 30+ days past due. (quarterly)
- [Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drclacbs): Share of consumer loans at all commercial banks that are 30+ days past due, a broad household-credit-quality gauge. (quarterly)

### Credit & Financial Stress
- [HY Credit Spread (OAS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a0hym2): ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk. (daily)
- [IG Credit Spread (OAS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a0cm): ICE BofA Investment Grade OAS, credit stress in high-quality corporate bonds. (daily)
- [HY Effective Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a0hym2ey): HY corporate bond effective yield, total return required by junk bond investors. (daily)
- [IG Effective Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a0cmey): IG corporate bond effective yield, cost of investment-grade corporate borrowing. (daily)
- [BBB Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a4cbbb): BBB-rated corporate bond OAS, the lowest rung of investment grade. (daily)
- [AAA Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a1caaa): AAA-rated corporate bond OAS, flight-to-quality indicator. (daily)
- [Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/aaa10y): Moody's Aaa corporate minus 10Y Treasury, credit risk premium for top-rated corporates. (daily)
- [Baa-10Y Treasury Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/baa10y): Moody's Baa minus 10Y Treasury, a wider measure of corporate credit risk. (daily)
- [Financial Conditions (NFCI)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nfci): Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, positive = tighter than average. (weekly)
- [Adjusted NFCI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/anfci): NFCI adjusted for prevailing economic conditions, isolates financial stress from the cycle. (weekly)
- [Financial Stress Index (StL)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/stlfsi4): St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, below zero = below-average stress. (weekly)
- [SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drtscilm): Senior Loan Officer Survey, net % of banks tightening standards on C&I loans. (quarterly)
- [SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drtsclcc): Net % of banks tightening credit card lending standards. (quarterly)
- [Credit Card Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/drcclacbs): Delinquency rate on credit card loans, consumer stress indicator. (quarterly)
- [Moody's Aaa Corporate Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/aaa): Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, the deepest historical US investment-grade series. (daily)
- [Moody's Baa Corporate Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/baa): Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, the classic lowest-rung investment-grade benchmark. (daily)
- [AA Corporate OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a2caa): ICE BofA AA-rated corporate option-adjusted spread, the tightest rung of true investment-grade credit. (daily)
- [A Corporate OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc0a3ca): ICE BofA single-A corporate OAS, the core of the investment-grade index by market weight. (daily)
- [7-10Y Corporate OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlc4a0c710y): ICE BofA 7 to 10 year corporate OAS, tenor-matched duration component of the IG complex. (daily)
- [BB HY OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a1hybb): ICE BofA BB-rated high-yield OAS, the highest-quality junk bond tier. (daily)
- [Single-B HY OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a2hyb): ICE BofA single-B high-yield OAS, the mid-tier junk bond cohort. (daily)
- [CCC & Lower HY OAS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bamlh0a3hyc): ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS, the distressed end of credit that spikes hardest in crises. (daily)
- [High Yield Credit (HYG)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/hyg): iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF. (daily)
- [IG Credit (LQD)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lqd): iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF. (daily)

### Crypto
- [Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc): Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer. (real-time)
- [Ethereum](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eth): Ethereum spot price, the leading smart contract platform token. (real-time)

### Crypto ETF Flows
- [BTC Spot ETF Net Flow (Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-flow-daily): Aggregate daily net flow across US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, etc.) in USD millions; the headline flow signal for institutional BTC demand. (daily)
- [BTC Spot ETF Net Flow (Latest)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-flow-latest): Most recent known aggregate BTC spot ETF net flow reading from CoinGlass; mirrored separately so dashboards can show the latest print without a date filter. (daily)
- [BTC Spot ETF Total Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-total-volume): Aggregate dollar trading volume across the major US spot BTC ETFs (IBIT + FBTC + GBTC), in USD millions; flow size context for net-flow readings. (daily)
- [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT) Net Flow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-ibit-flow): Daily net flow into BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in USD millions. (daily)
- [Fidelity BTC Fund (FBTC) Net Flow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-fbtc-flow): Daily net flow into Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) in USD millions. (daily)
- [Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Net Flow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-gbtc-flow): Daily net flow into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in USD millions; persistent outflows post-conversion are the dominant signal to track. (daily)
- [IBIT Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-ibit-volume): IBIT daily dollar trading volume (close price × shares traded) from Yahoo Finance. (daily)
- [FBTC Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-fbtc-volume): FBTC daily dollar trading volume. (daily)
- [GBTC Dollar Volume](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-gbtc-volume): GBTC daily dollar trading volume. (daily)
- [IBIT Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-ibit-price): IBIT daily close price from Yahoo Finance. (daily)
- [FBTC Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-fbtc-price): FBTC daily close price. (daily)
- [GBTC Price](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-etf-gbtc-price): GBTC daily close price. (daily)

### Economic Activity
- [Nominal GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gdp): US gross domestic product in current dollars. (quarterly)
- [Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gdpc1): Inflation-adjusted GDP, the definitive measure of economic output. (quarterly)
- [Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/metrics/indpro): Industrial production index, measures factory, mining, and utility output. (monthly)
- [Capacity Utilization](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tcu): Industrial capacity utilization rate, high readings signal inflationary bottlenecks. (monthly)
- [Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rsxfs): Advance retail sales excluding food services, consumer spending momentum. (monthly)
- [Durable Goods Orders](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgorder): New orders for manufactured durable goods, proxy for business investment intentions. (monthly)
- [Consumer Sentiment (Michigan)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/umcsent): University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, how consumers feel about the economy. (monthly)
- [Auto Sales (SAAR)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/totalsa): Total vehicle sales at seasonally adjusted annual rate. (monthly)
- [Inventories-to-Sales Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/isratio): Business inventories relative to sales, rising ratio signals slowing demand. (monthly)
- [Real Disposable Income](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dspic96): Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income. (monthly)
- [Personal Saving Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/psavert): Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, buffer for future spending. (monthly)
- [Real Personal Consumption](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcec96): Inflation-adjusted consumer spending, ~70% of US GDP. (monthly)
- [Total Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/metrics/totalsl): Total outstanding consumer credit, auto loans, student loans, credit cards. (monthly)
- [C&I Loans (All Banks)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/busloans): Commercial and industrial loans, business borrowing appetite. (monthly)
- [Revolving Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/metrics/revolsl): Outstanding revolving credit (mainly credit cards). (monthly)
- [Non-Revolving Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nonrevsl): Non-revolving credit (auto loans, student loans, personal loans). (monthly)
- [Corporate Profits After Tax](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpatax): Aggregate corporate profits after tax, key equity valuation input. (quarterly)
- [Mfg Unfilled Orders-to-Shipments](https://convextrade.com/metrics/umtmvs): Manufacturing unfilled orders relative to shipments, a leading indicator of industrial bottlenecks and backlog pressure. (monthly)
- [Manufacturers' New Orders (Total)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/amtmno): Total new orders received by US manufacturers, a leading gauge of industrial activity that feeds into Chicago Fed and Conference Board LEI composites. (monthly)
- [Empire State Manufacturing Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gacdisa066msfrbny): NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions diffusion index, one of the earliest monthly regional PMIs. (monthly)

### EM FX
- [USD/KRW](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexkous): US dollar to South Korean won exchange rate; Asian risk barometer and semiconductor-cycle proxy. (daily)
- [USD/INR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexinus): US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate; RBI intervenes actively to smooth volatility. (daily)
- [USD/THB](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexthus): US dollar to Thai baht exchange rate; ASEAN bellwether after the 1997 crisis reshaped EM architecture. (daily)
- [USD/TWD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dextaus): US dollar to Taiwan dollar exchange rate; semiconductor supply-chain currency. (daily)
- [USD/ZAR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexsfus): US dollar to South African rand exchange rate; high-beta EM currency tracking gold, platinum, and global risk appetite. (daily)
- [USD/MYR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexmaus): US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate; a commodities-linked ASEAN currency tied to palm oil and LNG exports. (daily)

### EM Inflation
- [South Africa CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/zafcpiallminmei): South Africa consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); SARB's policy guide. (monthly)
- [Turkey CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/turcpiallminmei): Turkey consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); reflects the TCMB era of unconventional policy and subsequent normalization. (monthly)
- [Russia CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ruscpiallminmei): Russia consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); note post-2022 sanctions regime may shift data coverage and reliability. (monthly)
- [South Africa CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-za): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for South Africa (IMF WEO). SARB targets a 3-6% band; inflation historically sits near the midpoint. (annual)
- [Turkey CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-tr): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Turkey (IMF WEO). Unconventional policy drove the inflation regime into hyperinflation-adjacent readings post-2021. (annual)

### Energy Supply
- [US Crude Oil Inventories](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eia-crude-stocks): US commercial crude oil inventories, supply/demand barometer for oil markets. (weekly)
- [US Crude Oil Production](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eia-crude-prod): US crude oil field production. (weekly)
- [US Crude Oil Imports](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eia-crude-imports): US crude oil imports, net of exports for supply balance. (weekly)

### Equity Index
- [S&P 500 ETF (SPY)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/spy): SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index. (daily)
- [Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/qqq): Invesco QQQ tracking the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. (daily)
- [Dow Jones ETF (DIA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dia): SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, tracks the 30 blue-chip Dow components. (daily)
- [Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/iwm): iShares Russell 2000 ETF, small-cap equity benchmark. (daily)
- [S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rsp): Equal-weight S&P 500, measures market breadth vs cap-weighted SPY. (daily)
- [Emerging Markets (EEM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eem): iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. (daily)
- [China Large-Cap (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fxi): iShares China Large-Cap ETF, proxy for Chinese equity market. (daily)
- [EAFE Developed (EFA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/efa): iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, developed markets excluding US and Canada. (daily)
- [Germany / DAX (EWG)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ewg): iShares MSCI Germany ETF, proxy for the DAX and German equity market. (daily)
- [Japan / Nikkei (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ewj): iShares MSCI Japan ETF, proxy for the Nikkei 225 and Japanese equity market. (daily)

### Equity Sector
- [Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlf): Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Energy (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xle): Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlk): Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Utilities (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlu): Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund, defensive, rate-sensitive. (daily)
- [Industrials (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xli): Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Healthcare (XLV)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlv): Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xly): Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlp): Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, defensive sector. (daily)
- [Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlc): Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund. (daily)
- [Real Estate (XLRE)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xlre): Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund, rate-sensitive. (daily)
- [Semiconductors (SMH)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF, leads the tech cycle. (daily)
- [Homebuilders (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xhb): SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, housing cycle bellwether. (daily)
- [Regional Banks (KRE)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/kre): SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, credit cycle indicator. (daily)

### Equity Stock
- [Apple (AAPL)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/aapl): Apple Inc., the world's most valuable company by market cap. (daily)
- [Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/msft): Microsoft Corp., enterprise software and cloud computing leader. (daily)
- [Nvidia (NVDA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nvda): Nvidia Corp., the AI/GPU chip leader driving the AI capex cycle. (daily)
- [Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/googl): Alphabet Inc., Google parent company, digital advertising leader. (daily)
- [Meta (META)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/meta): Meta Platforms Inc., Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp parent. (daily)
- [Amazon (AMZN)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/amzn): Amazon.com Inc., e-commerce and AWS cloud leader. (daily)
- [Tesla (TSLA)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tsla): Tesla Inc., electric vehicle and energy company, high retail sentiment indicator. (daily)
- [JPMorgan (JPM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jpm): JPMorgan Chase, largest US bank, financial sector bellwether. (daily)
- [Caterpillar (CAT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cat): Caterpillar Inc., industrial and infrastructure cycle bellwether. (daily)
- [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/xom): Exxon Mobil Corp., energy sector bellwether, tracks oil prices. (daily)
- [Walmart (WMT)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wmt): Walmart Inc., consumer staples bellwether, defensive play. (daily)
- [UnitedHealth (UNH)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/unh): UnitedHealth Group, healthcare sector bellwether, largest health insurer. (daily)
- [Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fcx): Freeport-McMoRan, copper mining bellwether, tracks global industrial demand. (daily)

### EU/UK Equity
- [FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ftse100): FTSE 100 index, the UK large-cap equity benchmark. (daily)
- [DAX 40](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dax40): DAX 40 index, the German large-cap equity benchmark. (daily)
- [CAC 40](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cac40): CAC 40 index, the French large-cap equity benchmark. (daily)
- [Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eurostoxx50): Euro Stoxx 50, the eurozone blue-chip equity benchmark. (daily)

### EU/UK Fixed Income
- [UK Gilt ETF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-gilt-etf): iShares Core UK Gilts ETF, UK government bond exposure. (daily)
- [EU Gov Bond ETF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eu-gov-bond-etf): iShares Core EU Government Bond ETF. (daily)

### EU/UK Inflation
- [UK CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-gb): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the United Kingdom (IMF WEO). BoE targets 2% with a symmetric ±1pp corridor. (annual)
- [Germany CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-de): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Germany (IMF WEO). Operates under ECB's 2% target; German inflation historically tracks below the Eurozone average. (annual)
- [France CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-fr): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for France (IMF WEO). Tracks near the Eurozone average under the ECB's 2% target. (annual)
- [Italy CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-it): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Italy (IMF WEO). Among the lower-inflation Eurozone economies historically. (annual)
- [Spain CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-es): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Spain (IMF WEO). Particularly sensitive to energy-price shocks under the ECB regime. (annual)
- [Netherlands CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-nl): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the Netherlands (IMF WEO). Dutch CPI closely tracks the Eurozone HICP under the ECB's 2% target. (annual)
- [Sweden CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-se): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Sweden (IMF WEO). Riksbank targets 2%; CPIF is the operative domestic measure. (annual)
- [Switzerland CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-ch): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Switzerland (IMF WEO). SNB targets a 0-2% band; Swiss CPI runs structurally below peers. (annual)
- [Eurozone HICP (Index)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ez-hicp): Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (2015=100) across the 19 euro-area members. (monthly)
- [UK CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-cpi): UK Consumer Price Index, all items. (monthly)

### EU/UK Labor
- [Germany Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttdem156s): Germany harmonised unemployment rate; core Eurozone labor gauge. (monthly)
- [France Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttfrm156s): France harmonised unemployment rate; second-largest Eurozone labor market. (monthly)
- [Italy Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttitm156s): Italy harmonised unemployment rate; captures structural southern-European labor weakness. (monthly)
- [Spain Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttesm156s): Spain harmonised unemployment rate; historically the highest-unemployment large Eurozone economy. (monthly)
- [UK Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-gb): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the United Kingdom from the IMF WEO. Post-COVID labor participation declines kept the rate elevated. (annual)
- [Germany Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-de): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Germany from the IMF WEO. Strong labor market; structurally below 5% in recent cycles. (annual)
- [France Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-fr): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for France from the IMF WEO. Structurally higher than core Europe for decades. (annual)
- [Italy Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-it): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Italy from the IMF WEO. Regional dispersion is stark; southern Italy sustains double-digit unemployment. (annual)
- [Spain Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-es): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Spain from the IMF WEO. Chronically the highest jobless rate in the G7. (annual)
- [Netherlands Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-nl): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the Netherlands from the IMF WEO. Very low structural unemployment by European standards. (annual)
- [Sweden Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-se): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Sweden from the IMF WEO. Low unemployment, high labor participation. (annual)
- [Switzerland Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-ch): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Switzerland from the IMF WEO. Very low jobless rate by G7 standards. (annual)
- [Eurozone Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ez-unemployment): Eurozone harmonised unemployment rate. (monthly)
- [UK Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-unemployment): UK ILO unemployment rate. (monthly)

### EU/UK Rates
- [Switzerland SNB Policy Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/snb-policy-rate): Swiss National Bank policy rate, set at quarterly monetary-policy assessments (cube snbpolra). Replaced the LIBOR-based target band in June 2019. (daily)
- [ECB Deposit Facility Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-deposit-rate): ECB deposit facility rate, the floor of the euro area interest rate corridor. (monthly)
- [ECB Main Refinancing Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-main-refi-rate): ECB main refinancing operations rate, the key policy rate. (monthly)
- [ECB Marginal Lending Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-marginal-lending): ECB marginal lending facility rate, the ceiling of the corridor. (monthly)
- [€STR (Euro Short-Term Rate)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecb-estr): €STR, the euro short-term rate replacing EONIA. (daily)
- [BoE Bank Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-bank-rate): Bank of England official Bank Rate, the UK policy rate. (daily)
- [UK 10Y Gilt Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-gilt-10y): UK 10-year gilt yield, monthly average from Bank of England. (monthly)
- [UK 2Y Gilt Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-gilt-2y): UK 2-year gilt yield, monthly average from Bank of England. (monthly)
- [UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boe-gilt-10y-eom): UK 10-year gilt yield, end of month from Bank of England. (monthly)
- [Italy 10Y BTP Yield (Q)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/italy-10y-btp): Italy 10-year government bond yield, quarterly from FRED. (quarterly)
- [Eurozone Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ez-real-gdp): Eurozone real GDP in chain-linked volumes (millions of chained 2010 EUR), the broadest measure of euro-area economic output. (quarterly)
- [EURIBOR 3M](https://convextrade.com/metrics/euribor-3m): Euro Interbank Offered Rate at 3-month tenor, the key euro area money-market benchmark. (monthly)
- [UK Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uk-real-gdp): UK real GDP (millions of domestic currency), seasonally adjusted, quarterly — sourced from FRED (ONS via IMF IFS). (quarterly)

### EU/UK Volatility
- [VSTOXX](https://convextrade.com/metrics/vstoxx): VSTOXX, implied volatility on Euro Stoxx 50 options. (daily)

### Fed Balance Sheet Detail
- [Fed Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treast): Fed holdings of US Treasury securities, the largest single line on the H.4.1 asset side. (weekly)
- [Fed MBS Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mbst): Fed holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities, the other major SOMA portfolio. (weekly)
- [Fed Repo Operations](https://convextrade.com/metrics/resppllopnww): Outstanding repurchase agreements on the Fed balance sheet, spikes during money-market stress. (weekly)
- [Fed Reverse Repo Liabilities](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wlrral): H.4.1 reverse repo liabilities, the liability-side complement to the ON-RRP take-up series. (weekly)
- [Fed TGA (Liability Side)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wdtgal): Treasury General Account balance as it appears on the Fed liability side of H.4.1. (weekly)
- [Fed Central Bank Liquidity Swaps](https://convextrade.com/metrics/swpt): Outstanding Fed dollar liquidity swaps to foreign central banks, spikes in global dollar funding stress. (weekly)
- [Fed Primary Credit Lending](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wlcflpcl): Primary credit lending via the discount window, spikes in bank funding stress episodes like SVB March 2023. (weekly)

### Fed Nowcasts
- [Atlanta Fed GDPNow](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gdpnow): Atlanta Fed real-time nowcast of current-quarter real GDP growth, updated 6-7 times per quarter as new data releases arrive. (weekly)
- [Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-cpi-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of the current-month CPI MoM change, using a dynamic factor model updated daily as price data releases arrive. (daily)
- [Cleveland Fed Core CPI Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-core-cpi-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of core CPI MoM change, the inflation signal excluding food and energy that the Fed watches most closely. (daily)
- [Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-pce-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of headline PCE inflation MoM change, the Fed's statutory target measure. (daily)
- [Cleveland Fed Core PCE Nowcast (MoM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/clev-core-pce-nowcast): Cleveland Fed nowcast of core PCE MoM change, the single most important inflation reading for FOMC decisions. (daily)

### Fed Policy Expectations
- [FedWatch Next-Meeting Cut Probability](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-next-cut-prob): Market-implied probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, derived from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Next-Meeting Implied Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-next-implied-rate): Market-implied effective fed funds rate priced for the next FOMC meeting, from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Rate (M1)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m1): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the next FOMC meeting from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Cut Probability (M1)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m1): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M1 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Hike Probability (M1)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m1): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M1 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m1): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M1, in basis points. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Rate (M2)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m2): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 2 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Cut Probability (M2)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m2): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M2 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Hike Probability (M2)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m2): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M2 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Change (M2, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m2): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M2, in basis points. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Rate (M3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m3): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 3 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Cut Probability (M3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m3): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M3 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Hike Probability (M3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m3): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M3 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Change (M3, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m3): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M3, in basis points. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Rate (M4)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m4): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 4 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Cut Probability (M4)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m4): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M4 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Hike Probability (M4)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m4): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M4 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Change (M4, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m4): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M4, in basis points. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Rate (M5)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m5): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 5 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Cut Probability (M5)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m5): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M5 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Hike Probability (M5)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m5): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M5 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Change (M5, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m5): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M5, in basis points. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Rate (M6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-rate-m6): Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the meeting 6 steps out from CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Cut Probability (M6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-cut-prob-m6): Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M6 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Hike Probability (M6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-hike-prob-m6): Cumulative probability of a rate hike by meeting M6 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. (daily)
- [FedWatch Implied Change (M6, bps)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedwatch-implied-change-bps-m6): Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M6, in basis points. (daily)

### Flow of Funds
- [Household Net Worth](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tnwbshno): Total net worth of US households and nonprofit organizations, assets minus liabilities, from the Fed Z.1 release. (quarterly)
- [Household Total Assets](https://convextrade.com/metrics/tabshno): Total assets held by US households and nonprofits, before subtracting liabilities. (quarterly)
- [Household Debt Securities & Loans](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cmdebt): Household liabilities from debt securities and loans, the comprehensive consumer-leverage aggregate from Z.1. (quarterly)
- [1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding](https://convextrade.com/metrics/hhmsdodns): Outstanding single-family residential mortgage debt held by US households, tracking mortgage-credit expansion cycles. (quarterly)
- [All Sectors Total Loans](https://convextrade.com/metrics/astll): All-sectors total loans liability from the Fed Z.1; the economy-wide aggregate of outstanding loans across households, firms, and government. (quarterly)

### FX & Dollar
- [Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dtwexbgs): Broad trade-weighted US dollar index, measures dollar strength vs major trading partners. (daily)
- [EM Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dtwexemegs): Dollar index weighted by emerging-market trading partners. (daily)
- [EUR/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexuseu): Euro to US dollar exchange rate. (daily)
- [JPY/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexjpus): Japanese yen to US dollar exchange rate. (daily)
- [CNY/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexchus): Chinese yuan to US dollar exchange rate. (daily)
- [BRL/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexbzus): Brazilian real to US dollar exchange rate. (daily)
- [Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbusbis): BIS real effective exchange rate for the US dollar, inflation-adjusted competitiveness. (monthly)
- [Trade Balance](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bopgstb): US trade balance in goods and services, negative = trade deficit. (monthly)
- [AUD/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexusal): Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate; commodity currency tracking iron ore, coal, and China demand. (daily)
- [NZD/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexusnz): New Zealand dollar to US dollar exchange rate; dairy and carry-trade currency. (daily)
- [USD/CHF](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexszus): US dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate; CHF is the classic risk-off safe haven with occasional SNB intervention. (daily)
- [USD/SEK](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexsdus): US dollar to Swedish krona exchange rate; Scandinavian bellwether. (daily)
- [USD/NOK](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexnous): US dollar to Norwegian krone exchange rate; petro-currency tracking Brent. (daily)
- [USD/DKK](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexdnus): US dollar to Danish krone exchange rate; DKK runs a tight euro peg. (daily)
- [USD/SGD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexsius): US dollar to Singapore dollar exchange rate; MAS-managed basket currency serving as Asia trade-weighted barometer. (daily)
- [USD/HKD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexhkus): US dollar to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate; pegged 7.75-7.85 band by the HKMA. (daily)
- [Japan Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbjpbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Japan; JPY on a trade-weighted inflation-adjusted basis. (monthly)
- [China Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbcnbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for China; trade-weighted CNY gauge capturing relative competitiveness. (monthly)
- [UK Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbgbbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for the UK; GBP trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [Canada Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbcabis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Canada; CAD trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [South Korea Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbkrbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for South Korea; KRW trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [India Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbinbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for India; INR trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [Australia Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbaubis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Australia; AUD trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [Brazil Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbbrbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Brazil; BRL trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [Mexico Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbmxbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Mexico; MXN trade-weighted real gauge. (monthly)
- [Switzerland Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbchbis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Switzerland; CHF trade-weighted real gauge; SNB policy-relevant metric. (monthly)
- [Russia Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rbrubis): BIS Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate for Russia; RUB trade-weighted real gauge; post-2022 sanctions era warrants caution. (monthly)
- [US Dollar Bull (UUP)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uup): Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund. (daily)
- [GBP/USD (FRED Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gbpusd-fred): British pound to US dollar exchange rate, official daily fixing from FRED (DEXUSUK series). Citable, fully historical back to 1971. For real-time intraday GBP/USD see /metrics/gbpusd. (daily)
- [GBP/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gbpusd): GBP/USD spot rate from Yahoo Finance. (daily)
- [EUR/GBP](https://convextrade.com/metrics/eurgbp): EUR/GBP spot rate. (daily)
- [CAD/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexcaus): Canadian dollar per US dollar. (daily)
- [MXN/USD](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dexmxus): Mexican peso per US dollar. (daily)

### Global Central Bank Assets
- [ECB Balance Sheet (Weekly)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ecbassetsw): Eurosystem consolidated balance sheet total, weekly. The ECB QE/QT gauge — peaked ~8.8T EUR in Jun-2022, contracting steadily since. (weekly)
- [BoJ Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jpnassets): Bank of Japan total assets, monthly. The broadest BoJ balance-sheet gauge, dominated by JGB holdings under YCC and its gradual unwind. (monthly)

### Global Credit Gap
- [US Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-us): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the United States; the difference in percentage points between private non-financial sector credit-to-GDP and its HP-filter trend, a core BIS financial cycle indicator. (quarterly)
- [China Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-cn): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for China; the benchmark BIS gauge flagged this as the largest positive gap in the world during 2013-2017 before policy-driven deleveraging brought it back to trend. (quarterly)
- [Japan Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-jp): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Japan; one of the few developed-market gaps to turn positive in the post-pandemic cycle, reflecting persistent corporate credit creation. (quarterly)
- [Euro Area Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-ea): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the Euro Area (XM); aggregate measure across 20 member states, still negative into 2025 reflecting post-GFC credit repair. (quarterly)
- [UK Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-gb): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for the United Kingdom; the 2008-2009 gap peaked near +35 percentage points, largest in the G7, and has been negative since 2011. (quarterly)
- [Germany Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-de): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Germany; a structurally low-debt economy that rarely registers a positive gap of any size. (quarterly)
- [France Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-fr): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for France; one of the few G7 economies to maintain a positive gap into the mid-2010s before the post-pandemic normalization turned it negative. (quarterly)
- [Italy Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-it): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Italy; deeply negative since the Eurozone crisis, reflecting the sustained deleveraging of the Italian banking and household sectors. (quarterly)
- [Spain Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-es): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Spain; arguably the most dramatic financial-cycle swing in the BIS dataset, from +45 pre-2008 to -45 by mid-2010s. (quarterly)
- [Canada Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-ca): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Canada; a housing-boom-driven gap that ran well above +20 through the mid-2010s and only recently went into deeply negative territory. (quarterly)
- [Australia Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-au): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Australia; one of the few Asia-Pacific advanced economies to show persistent positive gaps tied to housing credit growth. (quarterly)
- [Korea Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-kr): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for South Korea; household debt accumulation drove this above +15 during 2020-2021 before domestic macroprudential tightening. (quarterly)
- [India Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-in): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for India; reflects both the post-GFC deleveraging and the more recent acceleration in household credit. (quarterly)
- [Brazil Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-br): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Brazil; highly cyclical and sensitive to Selic rate moves and fiscal sentiment. (quarterly)
- [Mexico Credit-to-GDP Gap](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bis-credit-gap-mx): BIS credit-to-GDP gap for Mexico; historically one of the shallower gap series reflecting structurally low private-sector debt relative to GDP. (quarterly)

### Housing
- [Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/metrics/houst): New privately-owned housing units started, leading indicator of construction activity. (monthly)
- [Building Permits](https://convextrade.com/metrics/permit): New privately-owned building permits, leading indicator of future housing starts. (monthly)
- [New Home Sales](https://convextrade.com/metrics/hsn1f): Sales of new single-family houses, sensitive to mortgage rates and consumer confidence. (monthly)
- [Case-Shiller Home Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/csushpinsa): S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. (monthly)
- [Months Supply of Houses](https://convextrade.com/metrics/msacsr): Months of unsold housing inventory, below 4 = seller's market, above 6 = buyer's market. (monthly)
- [30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mortgage30us): 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the primary driver of housing affordability. (weekly)
- [Housing Starts: Single-Family](https://convextrade.com/metrics/houst1f): Annualized rate of new privately-owned single-family housing units started; the purest gauge of detached home construction. (monthly)
- [Housing Starts: 5+ Units](https://convextrade.com/metrics/houst5f): Annualized rate of new housing starts in 5+ unit buildings, primarily multifamily apartment construction. (monthly)
- [Building Permits: Single-Family](https://convextrade.com/metrics/permit1): Authorized new single-family housing units, typically 4-6 weeks ahead of starts. (monthly)
- [Building Permits: 5+ Units](https://convextrade.com/metrics/permit5): Authorized new housing units in multifamily (5+ unit) projects; a multifamily construction leading indicator. (monthly)
- [Housing Completions](https://convextrade.com/metrics/computsa): Total new privately-owned housing units completed, seasonally adjusted; converts the starts backlog into finished supply. (monthly)
- [Vacant Housing Units](https://convextrade.com/metrics/evacantusq176n): Estimate of vacant housing units in the US housing stock; sustained decline signals a tightening supply-demand balance. (quarterly)
- [FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ussthpi): FHFA all-transactions house price index for the United States; a broad repeat-sales measure of home price appreciation. (quarterly)

### Housing Sentiment
- [NAHB Housing Market Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi): NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index; monthly diffusion index of single-family homebuilder sentiment scaled 0-100 where readings above 50 indicate more builders view conditions as good than poor. (monthly)
- [NAHB HMI Current Sales](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi-current): NAHB HMI sub-index for current single-family home sales conditions; builders rate today (not next six months) good, fair, or poor. Scaled 0-100. (monthly)
- [NAHB HMI Future Sales (6mo)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi-future): NAHB HMI sub-index for expected single-family home sales over the next six months; a forward-looking read on builder pipelines. Scaled 0-100. (monthly)
- [NAHB HMI Buyer Traffic](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nahb-hmi-traffic): NAHB HMI sub-index for traffic of prospective buyers visiting model homes and developments; the most volatile of the three components. Scaled 0-100. (monthly)

### IMF Macro
- [US Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-us): Annual real GDP growth rate for the United States from the IMF World Economic Outlook, via World Bank open data. The G7 growth benchmark; typically oscillates 1.5-3%. (annual)
- [Canada Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-ca): Annual real GDP growth rate for Canada from the IMF World Economic Outlook. A resource-exporter tightly coupled to US demand and commodity prices. (annual)
- [Mexico Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-mx): Annual real GDP growth rate for Mexico from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Tightly integrated with US supply chains post-USMCA. (annual)
- [Brazil Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-br): Annual real GDP growth rate for Brazil from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Largest Latin American economy, driven by commodity and agricultural export cycles. (annual)
- [Argentina Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-ar): Annual real GDP growth rate for Argentina from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally volatile; oscillates between stabilization programs and inflation crises. (annual)
- [UK Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-gb): Annual real GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom from the IMF World Economic Outlook. UK growth slowed structurally post-Brexit. (annual)
- [Germany Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-de): Annual real GDP growth rate for Germany from the IMF World Economic Outlook. The Eurozone anchor; manufacturing-export driven. (annual)
- [France Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-fr): Annual real GDP growth rate for France from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Second-largest Eurozone economy, service-led. (annual)
- [Italy Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-it): Annual real GDP growth rate for Italy from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally lower growth than the Eurozone average. (annual)
- [Spain Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-es): Annual real GDP growth rate for Spain from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Highly cyclical with housing-driven booms and busts. (annual)
- [Netherlands Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-nl): Annual real GDP growth rate for the Netherlands from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Small open economy anchored by port and services trade. (annual)
- [Sweden Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-se): Annual real GDP growth rate for Sweden from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Small open economy with a freely floating krona. (annual)
- [Switzerland Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-ch): Annual real GDP growth rate for Switzerland from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Franc safe-haven flows shape the growth trajectory. (annual)
- [Japan Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-jp): Annual real GDP growth rate for Japan from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's fourth-largest economy; emerged from chronic deflation only recently. (annual)
- [China Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-cn): Annual real GDP growth rate for China from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's second-largest economy; growth decelerated meaningfully since the mid-2010s. (annual)
- [India Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-in): Annual real GDP growth rate for India from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's fastest-growing large economy. (annual)
- [South Korea Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-kr): Annual real GDP growth rate for South Korea from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Export-driven industrial economy; highly exposed to the semiconductor cycle. (annual)
- [Australia Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-au): Annual real GDP growth rate for Australia from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Resource-exporter with heavy exposure to the commodity cycle. (annual)
- [South Africa Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-za): Annual real GDP growth rate for South Africa from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally low-growth emerging economy with persistent power-grid constraints. (annual)
- [Turkey Real GDP Growth (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-gdp-growth-tr): Annual real GDP growth rate for Turkey from the IMF World Economic Outlook. High-volatility emerging economy with recurring FX and inflation crises. (annual)
- [US CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-us): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the United States (IMF WEO via World Bank). The Fed's dual mandate anchor; averages ~2% over cycles. (annual)
- [Canada CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-ca): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Canada (IMF WEO). The Bank of Canada targets 2% at the midpoint of a 1-3% band. (annual)
- [US Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-us): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the United States from the IMF WEO. Pre-pandemic NAIRU estimates sat around 4.0-4.5%. (annual)
- [Canada Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-ca): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Canada from the IMF WEO. Structurally close to the BoC's non-inflationary rate. (annual)
- [Mexico Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-mx): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Mexico from the IMF WEO. Structurally low headline reading masks a large informal sector. (annual)
- [Brazil Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-br): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Brazil from the IMF WEO. Two-tier labor market with high informality. (annual)
- [Argentina Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-ar): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Argentina from the IMF WEO. Formal-sector unemployment runs around 7-10% through cycles. (annual)
- [South Africa Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-za): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for South Africa from the IMF WEO. Highest structural jobless rate among major economies, routinely above 30%. (annual)
- [Turkey Unemployment Rate (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-unemployment-tr): ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Turkey from the IMF WEO. Structurally around 10% across cycles. (annual)
- [US Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-us): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the United States (IMF WEO). Chronic deficit around -3% of GDP reflects the reserve-currency status. (annual)
- [Canada Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-ca): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Canada (IMF WEO). Moves with commodity price cycles; typically small deficit. (annual)
- [Mexico Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-mx): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Mexico (IMF WEO). Runs modest deficits in normal times, financed by remittances and FDI. (annual)
- [Brazil Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-br): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Brazil (IMF WEO). Agricultural and iron-ore surpluses partly offset service deficits. (annual)
- [Argentina Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-ar): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Argentina (IMF WEO). Swings between crisis-driven deficit and post-crisis adjustment surplus. (annual)
- [UK Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-gb): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the United Kingdom (IMF WEO). Chronic deficit around -3 to -4% reflects structural trade imbalance. (annual)
- [Germany Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-de): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Germany (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus reflects manufacturing export strength. (annual)
- [France Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-fr): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for France (IMF WEO). Small deficit with structural tourism and luxury-goods surplus offsets. (annual)
- [Italy Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-it): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Italy (IMF WEO). Persistent small surplus since the Eurozone crisis. (annual)
- [Spain Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-es): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Spain (IMF WEO). Swung from large pre-GFC deficits to modest surpluses post-2012. (annual)
- [Netherlands Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-nl): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the Netherlands (IMF WEO). Large persistent surplus from port and trade-hub intermediation. (annual)
- [Sweden Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-se): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Sweden (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by manufacturing exports. (annual)
- [Switzerland Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-ch): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Switzerland (IMF WEO). Large persistent surplus reflects banking and precision-industry exports. (annual)
- [Japan Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-jp): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Japan (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by overseas investment income and manufacturing trade. (annual)
- [China Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-cn): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for China (IMF WEO). Surplus narrowed post-2008 but remains sizable due to manufacturing exports. (annual)
- [India Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-in): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for India (IMF WEO). Runs modest deficits, financed by FDI and IT-services exports. (annual)
- [South Korea Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-kr): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for South Korea (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by tech and auto exports. (annual)
- [Australia Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-au): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Australia (IMF WEO). Historically chronic deficit; flipped to surplus post-2019 via commodity exports. (annual)
- [South Africa Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-za): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for South Africa (IMF WEO). Small deficits reliant on commodity prices and cross-border capital flows. (annual)
- [Turkey Current Account (% GDP, WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-ca-balance-tr): Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Turkey (IMF WEO). Swings from wide deficits to narrower surpluses with each FX adjustment cycle. (annual)

### Inflation
- [CPI (All Urban)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiaucsl): Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge. (monthly)
- [US CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01usm659n): US consumer price index, year-on-year change (OECD MEI). Feed stopped updating in April 2025; CPIAUCNS_YOY is the live replacement. (monthly)
- [US CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiaucns_yoy): US headline CPI year-over-year, derived in-house from CPIAUCNS (NSA, BLS headline methodology). Replaced the stale OECD MEI CPALTT01USM659N feed. (monthly)
- [Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpilfesl): CPI excluding food and energy, less volatile measure of underlying inflation. (monthly)
- [PCE Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcepi): Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. (monthly)
- [Core PCE (ex Food/Energy)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pcepilfe): Core PCE excluding food and energy, the single most important inflation metric for the Fed. (monthly)
- [PPI Final Demand](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ppifis): Producer Price Index for final demand, leading indicator of consumer inflation. (monthly)
- [CPI: Rent of Shelter](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cusr0000seha): CPI shelter component, the stickiest and largest component of core CPI. (monthly)
- [CPI: Supercore Services](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cusr0000sasle): Core services ex housing, the "supercore" metric the Fed watches for wage-driven inflation. (monthly)
- [CPI: Used Cars & Trucks](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cusr0000seta02): Used vehicle price index, volatile goods component that drove 2021-22 inflation. (monthly)
- [CPI: Energy](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiengsl): Energy component of CPI, driven by oil prices and utility costs. (monthly)
- [CPI: Food](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiufdsl): Food component of CPI, politically sensitive and affects consumer sentiment. (monthly)
- [Michigan Inflation Expectations](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mich): University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations, consumer survey measure. (monthly)
- [10Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10yie): Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations from TIPS spread. (daily)
- [Global Commodity Price Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pallfnfindexm): IMF global commodity price index, leading indicator of headline inflation. (monthly)
- [CPI-U (Not Seasonally Adjusted)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpiaucns): Headline Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, NSA; preferred for year-over-year calculations and TIPS contract indexation. (monthly)
- [1Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf1yr): Cleveland Fed 1-year expected inflation rate from a no-arbitrage term-structure model. (monthly)
- [2Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf2yr): Cleveland Fed 2-year expected inflation rate from a no-arbitrage term-structure model. (monthly)
- [5Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf5yr): Cleveland Fed 5-year expected inflation rate; medium-horizon market-implied anchor. (monthly)
- [10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf10yr): Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation rate; long-horizon anchor used in DSGE and nowcasting work. (monthly)
- [30Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/expinf30yr): Cleveland Fed 30-year expected inflation rate; very long-horizon anchor for insurance and pension liability modeling. (monthly)
- [Mexico Headline CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/banxico-headline-cpi): Mexico headline CPI year-over-year (INPC general), published monthly by INEGI and mirrored via Banxico SIE series SP74660. (monthly)

### International Inflation
- [Canada CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cancpiallminmei): Canada consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); Bank of Canada's 2% target. (monthly)
- [Japan Headline CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/estat-cpi-yoy): Japan headline CPI year-over-year (2020-base general index, all Japan), published monthly by the Statistics Bureau (e-Stat statsDataId 0003427113). Replaced the stale FRED CPALTT01JPM659N mirror. (monthly)
- [Japan CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01jpm659n): Japan consumer price index, year-on-year change (OECD MEI), comparable across countries. (monthly)
- [Canada CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01cam659n): Canada consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Switzerland CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01chm659n): Switzerland consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Korea CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01krm659n): South Korea consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [India CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01inm659n): India consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Mexico CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01mxm659n): Mexico consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Brazil CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01brm659n): Brazil consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [China CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/chncpiallminmei): China consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100). (monthly)
- [China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01cnm659n): China consumer price index, year-on-year change (OECD MEI). Feed stopped updating in April 2025; weo-cpi-cn (IMF WEO annual, via World Bank API) is the live fallback. NBS primary-source scraper blocked by WAF; paid API migration deferred. (monthly)
- [Sweden CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01sem659n): Sweden consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Poland CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01plm659n): Poland consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [South Africa CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01zam659n): South Africa consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Turkey CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01trm659n): Turkey consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)
- [Israel CPI YoY](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cpaltt01ilm659n): Israel consumer price index, year-on-year change. (monthly)

### International Labor
- [Japan Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttjpm156s): Japan harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly)
- [Canada Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttcam156s): Canada harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly)
- [Australia Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttaum156s): Australia harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly)
- [Korea Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lrhuttttkrm156s): South Korea harmonised unemployment rate (OECD MEI). (monthly)

### International Rates
- [Germany 10Y Bund](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01dem156n): Germany 10-year Bund yield, Eurozone risk-free reference. (monthly)
- [France 10Y OAT](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01frm156n): France 10-year OAT yield, key input to OAT-Bund spread. (monthly)
- [Spain 10Y SPGB](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01esm156n): Spain 10-year SPGB yield, key input to SPGB-Bund spread. (monthly)
- [Netherlands 10Y](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01nlm156n): Netherlands 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Japan 10Y JGB Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01jpm156n): Japan 10-year JGB yield, key gauge of BoJ YCC exit regime. (monthly)
- [Japan 3M Interbank Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01jpm156n): Japan 3-month interbank rate (TIBOR). (monthly)
- [Canada 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01cam156n): Canada 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Canada 3M Interbank](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01cam156n): Canada 3-month interbank rate (CDOR). (monthly)
- [Australia 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01aum156n): Australia 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Australia 3M Interbank](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01aum156n): Australia 3-month interbank rate (BBSW). (monthly)
- [Switzerland 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01chm156n): Switzerland 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Switzerland 3M Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01chm156n): Switzerland 3-month interbank rate (SARON historical). (monthly)
- [Korea 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01krm156n): South Korea 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [India 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/indirltlt01stm): India 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Mexico 3M Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01mxm156n): Mexico 3-month money-market rate (TIIE). (monthly)
- [NZ 10Y Govt Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01nzm156n): New Zealand 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [China 3M Interbank](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ir3tib01cnm156n): China 3-month interbank rate (SHIBOR). (monthly)
- [Sweden 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01sem156n): Sweden 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Norway 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01nom156n): Norway 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Denmark 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01dkm156n): Denmark 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Poland 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01plm156n): Poland 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [South Africa 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01zam156n): South Africa 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Israel 10Y Bond](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irltlt01ilm156n): Israel 10-year government bond yield. (monthly)
- [Chile Short-Term Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/irstci01clm156n): Chile short-term interbank rate (OECD MEI). (monthly)

### Labor Market
- [Unemployment Rate (U3)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/unrate): Headline unemployment rate, percentage of the labor force without jobs. (monthly)
- [Underemployment Rate (U6)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/u6rate): Broadest unemployment measure including discouraged and part-time workers. (monthly)
- [Initial Jobless Claims](https://convextrade.com/metrics/icsa): Weekly first-time unemployment insurance claims, the highest-frequency labor indicator. (weekly)
- [Initial Claims 4-Week MA](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ic4wsa): Smoothed jobless claims average, removes weekly volatility. (weekly)
- [Continued Claims](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ccsa): Ongoing unemployment insurance claims, measures difficulty of finding new work. (weekly)
- [Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/metrics/payems): Total nonfarm employment, the single most-watched monthly jobs number. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsjol): Job openings from the JOLTS survey, measures labor demand. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Quit Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsqur): Voluntary quit rate, high quits = worker confidence, low = fear. (monthly)
- [Avg Weekly Hours (Private)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/awhaetp): Average weekly hours worked in the private sector, a leading employment indicator. (monthly)
- [Avg Hourly Earnings (Private)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ces0500000003): Average hourly earnings for all private employees, wage growth tracker. (monthly)
- [Labor Force Participation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/civpart): Labor force participation rate, share of working-age population in the labor force. (monthly)
- [Employment-Population Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/emratio): Share of working-age population that is employed, avoids LFPR distortions. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Job Openings Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsjor): Job openings as a share of total employment plus openings, a leading wage-pressure gauge. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Hires Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtshir): Monthly hires as a percent of employment, captures labor-market churn. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Hires Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtshil): Total monthly hires across the US economy, the absolute level companion to the hires rate. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsldr): Involuntary separations as a percent of employment, rises sharply ahead of recessions. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsldl): Monthly count of layoffs and discharges across the US economy. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Quits Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtsqul): Monthly count of voluntary quits, the level companion to the better-known quits rate. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Total Separations Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtstsr): Total separations rate combining quits, layoffs, and other exits. (monthly)
- [JOLTS Total Separations Level](https://convextrade.com/metrics/jtstsl): Total separations level combining quits, layoffs, and other outflows. (monthly)
- [Unemployed 5 to 14 Weeks](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uemp5to14): Short-duration unemployment cohort, signals early-cycle labor churn. (monthly)
- [Unemployed 15 to 26 Weeks](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uemp15t26): Medium-duration unemployment, bridging fresh layoffs and long-term joblessness. (monthly)
- [Unemployed 27+ Weeks (Long-Term)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/uemp27ov): Long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more), a classic late-cycle scarring indicator. (monthly)
- [Marginally Attached](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns13023621): Workers who want a job but have stopped actively searching, counted inside U5 and U6. (monthly)
- [Part-Time for Economic Reasons](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns12032194): Involuntary part-time workers, a core U6 component that spikes in downturns. (monthly)
- [Nonfarm Productivity](https://convextrade.com/metrics/prs85006092): Nonfarm business productivity growth (output per hour), sets the non-inflationary wage ceiling. (quarterly)
- [Avg Hourly Earnings (Production)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ahetpi): Average hourly earnings of private production and non-supervisory workers, the wage series the Fed highlights. (monthly)
- [Unemployment Rate (White)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000003): Unemployment rate for white workers, baseline reference for demographic comparisons. (monthly)
- [Unemployment Rate (Black)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000006): Unemployment rate for Black or African American workers, historically roughly twice the white rate. (monthly)
- [Unemployment Rate (Hispanic)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000009): Unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino workers, sensitive to construction and hospitality cycles. (monthly)
- [Unemployment Rate (Asian)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/lns14000025): Unemployment rate for Asian workers, typically lowest of the major tracked cohorts. (monthly)
- [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker — Overall](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-overall): Median 12-month percent change in hourly wages for workers who appeared in CPS twelve months apart; 3-month moving average. Atlanta Fed's marquee wage-inflation gauge. (monthly)
- [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Job Stayers](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-job-stayer): Median wage growth for workers who stayed with the same employer over the 12-month window. (monthly)
- [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Job Switchers](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-job-switcher): Median wage growth for workers who changed employers in the 12-month window; the switcher premium (switcher − stayer) is a tight labor-market tell. (monthly)
- [Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Prime Age (25-54)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/atl-wage-prime-age): Median wage growth for prime-age workers (25-54); filters out retiree re-entry and youth compositional effects. (monthly)

### Latin America FX
- [Brazilian Real / US Dollar (PTAX)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bcb-brlusd): Daily USD/BRL PTAX closing rate (BCB reference "venda" quote, SGS series 1). The benchmark for BRL trade and contract settlement. (daily)

### Latin America Inflation
- [Brazil CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bracpiallminmei): Brazil consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); the BCB's inflation target anchor. (monthly)
- [Mexico CPI Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/mexcpiallminmei): Mexico consumer price index (OECD MEI, 2015=100); Banxico's policy anchor. (monthly)
- [Mexico CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-mx): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Mexico (IMF WEO). Banxico targets 3% ±1pp. (annual)
- [Brazil CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-br): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Brazil (IMF WEO). BCB targets 3% with a ±1.5pp tolerance. (annual)
- [Argentina CPI Inflation (WEO)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/weo-cpi-ar): Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Argentina (IMF WEO). Hyperinflation regime; triple-digit readings in 2023-24 during stabilization. (annual)

### Latin America Rates
- [Brazil Selic Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bcb-selic): Banco Central do Brasil target Selic rate, the overnight policy rate set by the Copom (SGS series 432). (daily)
- [Mexico Overnight Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/banxico-policy-rate): Banxico target for the interbank overnight rate, set at the biweekly Junta de Gobierno meeting (SIE series SF61745). Mexico’s policy rate. (daily)

### Liquidity
- [Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/metrics/walcl): Total assets held by the Federal Reserve, the QE/QT gauge. (weekly)
- [Overnight Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/metrics/rrpontsyd): ON RRP facility balance, liquidity buffer absorbing QT before reserves drain. (daily)
- [Treasury General Account](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wtregen): Treasury's cash balance at the Fed, drawdowns inject liquidity into markets. (weekly)
- [M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m2sl): Broad money supply including cash, checking, savings, and money market funds. (monthly)
- [Total Reserves](https://convextrade.com/metrics/totresns): Total reserves of depository institutions at the Federal Reserve. (monthly)
- [Monetary Base](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bogmbase): Currency in circulation plus bank reserves, the Fed's narrowest money measure. (monthly)
- [Reserve Balances at Fed](https://convextrade.com/metrics/wresbal): Bank reserve balances deposited at the Federal Reserve, critical QT floor indicator. (weekly)
- [Credit Card Loans (Banks)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cclacbw027sbog): Outstanding credit card loans at all commercial banks. (weekly)
- [Convex Net Liquidity Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_cnli): Convex Net Liquidity Index, Fed Balance Sheet minus Reverse Repo minus TGA. Measures actual liquidity flowing into markets. (daily)
- [Japan Monetary Base](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boj-monetary-base): BoJ monetary base (banknotes plus coin plus BoJ current-account balances), in 100 million yen. Core liquidity gauge for the yen system (series MA02'MABS1AA000). (monthly)
- [BoJ-held JGB Aggregate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boj-jgb-holdings): Aggregate Japanese Government Bonds held on the BoJ balance sheet, in 100 million yen (series BS01'MABSPR01). Tracks YCC unwind and QT progress. (monthly)
- [SNB Currency Reserves (CHF)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/snb-fx-reserves): Total currency reserves held by the SNB in millions of Swiss francs (cube snbbipo, summed across asset classes). Tracks FX intervention and reserve-diversification moves. (monthly)

### Margin & Positioning
- [FINRA Margin Debt](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-margin-debt): FINRA aggregate debit balances in customer securities margin accounts; the canonical aggregate margin-debt series, a widely watched retail leverage proxy. (monthly)
- [FINRA Free Credit (Cash Accounts)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-free-credit-cash): FINRA free credit balances held in customer cash accounts; liquid dry-powder sitting in brokerage accounts. (monthly)
- [FINRA Free Credit (Margin Accounts)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-free-credit-margin): FINRA free credit balances held in customer securities margin accounts; the complement to margin debt within leveraged accounts. (monthly)
- [FINRA Net Margin Debt](https://convextrade.com/metrics/finra-net-margin-debt): Margin debt minus customer free credit balances (cash plus margin); the clean net-leverage series historically used to time equity bubble peaks. (monthly)

### Money Market Fund Flows
- [Money Market Fund Assets (Total)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-total): Total US money market fund assets published weekly by the Investment Company Institute; the headline cash-parking series, used to track rotations between risk assets and cash yields. (weekly)
- [MMF Assets (Retail)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-retail): Retail investor share of total money market fund assets; retail flows track household cash allocation responses to rate changes with a lag. (weekly)
- [MMF Assets (Institutional)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-institutional): Institutional share of total money market fund assets; corporate treasurers and large asset allocators move faster than retail and dominate quarter-end cash cycles. (weekly)
- [MMF Assets (Government Funds)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-govt): Money market funds holding Treasury bills, repos, and government agency paper; the largest MMF bucket and a read on Treasury demand at the short end. (weekly)
- [MMF Assets (Prime Funds)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-prime): Prime money market funds holding commercial paper, certificates of deposit, and corporate short-term debt; the 2016 reform drove mass conversions out of prime into government funds, so trends here are structural. (weekly)
- [MMF Assets (Tax-Exempt Funds)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/ici-mmf-tax-exempt): Tax-exempt money market funds holding short-term municipal paper; the smallest MMF bucket, volumes are driven by tax-bracket arbitrage versus the after-tax yield on taxable funds. (weekly)

### Money Supply
- [M1 Money Stock](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m1sl): M1: currency in circulation plus demand deposits and other liquid deposits, the narrowest operational money aggregate. (monthly)
- [M1 Velocity](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m1v): Ratio of nominal GDP to M1; falling velocity signals hoarded liquidity, rising velocity signals accelerating spending. (quarterly)
- [M2 Velocity](https://convextrade.com/metrics/m2v): Nominal GDP divided by M2, the standard quantity-theory gauge of how fast money circulates through the economy. (quarterly)
- [Nonborrowed Reserves](https://convextrade.com/metrics/nonborres): Reserves held by depository institutions minus borrowings from the Federal Reserve; a classic bank-liquidity stress gauge. (monthly)

### OECD Composite Leading Indicators
- [US OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-us): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United States; amplitude-adjusted monthly index normalized to 100 on its long-run trend. (monthly)
- [Canada OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-ca): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Canada; amplitude-adjusted monthly index normalized to 100 on trend. Tracks commodity-cycle turning points in tandem with US. (monthly)
- [Mexico OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-mx): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Mexico; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Mexican manufacturing PMIs feed heavily into this composite. (monthly)
- [Brazil OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-br): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Brazil; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Commodity export prices and domestic credit are dominant inputs. (monthly)
- [UK OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-gb): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United Kingdom; monthly amplitude-adjusted index normalized to 100 on its long-run trend. (monthly)
- [Germany OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-de): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Germany; the Eurozone turning-point bellwether. Industrial orders and Ifo are heavy inputs. (monthly)
- [France OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-fr): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for France; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. INSEE business climate and industrial order books feed the series. (monthly)
- [Italy OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-it): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Italy; monthly amplitude-adjusted index, historically the most volatile G7 CLI. (monthly)
- [Spain OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-es): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Spain; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Tourism flows and construction order books drive turning points. (monthly)
- [Japan OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-jp): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Japan; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Tankan surveys and shipment indices are heavy inputs. (monthly)
- [China OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-cn): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Power generation and freight volumes are among the core components. (monthly)
- [India OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-in): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for India; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. PMI and capital-goods output drive the composite. (monthly)
- [South Korea OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-kr): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for South Korea; export orders and semiconductor inventories dominate the composite. (monthly)
- [Australia OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-au): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Australia; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Resource exports and housing starts are major inputs. (monthly)
- [Indonesia OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-id): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Indonesia; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. ASEAN bellwether composite tied to commodity and manufacturing flows. (monthly)
- [South Africa OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-za): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for South Africa; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Mining output and power availability weigh heavily. (monthly)
- [Turkey OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-tr): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Turkey; monthly amplitude-adjusted index, highly sensitive to lira swings and external demand. (monthly)
- [G7 OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-g7): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Group of Seven (US, Canada, Japan, UK, Germany, France, Italy). The advanced-economy turning-point gauge. (monthly)
- [G20 OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-g20): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Group of Twenty. The broadest CLI aggregate, covering ~85% of global GDP. (monthly)
- [Euro Area 4 OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-g4e): OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the euro-area G4 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). Captures ~75% of Eurozone GDP in a single series. (monthly)
- [NAFTA OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-nafta): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across NAFTA / USMCA (US, Canada, Mexico). Cross-border manufacturing cycle turning-point gauge. (monthly)
- [Major 5 Asia OECD CLI](https://convextrade.com/metrics/oecd-cli-a5m): OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Major 5 Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea). Asia-Pacific turning-point gauge. (monthly)

### Primary Dealer
- [Primary Dealer Net Positions — US Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-treasuries): Aggregate net positions of primary dealers in US Treasury securities (bills + all coupon buckets + TIPS + FRN), USD millions, from NY Fed PD stats. Positive = net long dealer inventory. (weekly)
- [Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-agency-mbs): Aggregate net positions of primary dealers in agency MBS (pass-through + non-pass-through), USD millions. (weekly)
- [Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency Debt](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-agency-debt): Net positions of primary dealers in federal agency non-MBS debt (FNMA, FHLMC, FHLB debentures), USD millions. (weekly)
- [Primary Dealer Net Positions — Corporate Bonds](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-net-pos-corp): Net positions of primary dealers in corporate bonds (investment grade + high yield), USD millions. (weekly)
- [Primary Dealer Fails to Deliver — Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-fails-to-deliver): Cumulative weekly settlement fails to deliver US Treasury securities across primary dealers, USD millions. Sustained spikes signal collateral scarcity or repo dislocation. (weekly)
- [Primary Dealer Fails to Receive — Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-fails-to-receive): Cumulative weekly settlement fails to receive US Treasury securities across primary dealers, USD millions. (weekly)
- [Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/pd-fails-total): Sum of weekly Treasury fails-to-deliver plus fails-to-receive across primary dealers, USD millions. Standard stress gauge for Treasury market plumbing; 2008 and Mar-2020 episodes saw multi-trillion-dollar spikes. (weekly)

### Recession Indicators
- [Sahm Rule Recession Indicator](https://convextrade.com/metrics/sahmrealtime): Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970. (monthly)
- [Leading Index for US](https://convextrade.com/metrics/usslind): Conference Board Leading Economic Index, composite of 10 leading indicators. (monthly)
- [OECD Composite Leading Indicator](https://convextrade.com/metrics/usalolitonostsam): OECD CLI for the US, designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle. (monthly)
- [CVRP, Convex Recession Probability](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_crpi): CVRP, Convex Recession Probability composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale. (daily)
- [Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/neworder): Manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft, core capex proxy. (monthly)
- [Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/bbkmleix): Brave-Butters-Kelley dynamic factor leading index, a Chicago Fed academic composite of ~500 macro series. (monthly)
- [US Recession Probability (Smoothed)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/recprousm156n): Chauvet-Piger smoothed US recession probability from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model; probabilities above 80% reliably coincide with NBER-dated recessions. (monthly)

### Sentiment & Positioning
- [Convex Risk Appetite Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_crai): Convex Risk Appetite Index, cross-asset risk appetite from 5 ETF price ratio z-scores (IWM/SPY, HYG/LQD, XLY/XLP, EEM/EFA, KRE/SPY). 0-100 scale. (daily)
- [Convex Narrative Velocity Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/convex_nvi): Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale. (daily)
- [BTC Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-btc-net-spec): CME Bitcoin futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly)
- [BTC Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-btc-oi): CME Bitcoin futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [Gold Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-gc-net-spec): COMEX Gold futures net speculative positioning. (weekly)
- [Gold Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-gc-oi): COMEX Gold futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [WTI Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-wti-net-spec): NYMEX WTI crude net speculative positioning. (weekly)
- [WTI Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-wti-oi): NYMEX WTI crude futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [S&P 500 Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-es-net-spec): CME E-mini S&P 500 net speculative positioning. (weekly)
- [S&P 500 Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-es-oi): CME E-mini S&P 500 futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [Copper Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-hg-net-spec): COMEX Copper futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly)
- [Copper Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-hg-oi): COMEX Copper futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [Euro FX Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-eur-net-spec): CME Euro FX futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly)
- [Euro FX Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-eur-oi): CME Euro FX futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [Yen Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-jpy-net-spec): CME Japanese Yen futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly)
- [Yen Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-jpy-oi): CME Japanese Yen futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [Treasury Bond Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zb-net-spec): CBOT US Treasury Bond futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly)
- [Treasury Bond Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zb-oi): CBOT US Treasury Bond futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [10Y Note Net Speculative Positioning](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zn-net-spec): CBOT 10-Year US Treasury Note futures net speculative positioning from CFTC COT report. (weekly)
- [10Y Note Futures Open Interest](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cftc-zn-oi): CBOT 10-Year US Treasury Note futures total open interest. (weekly)
- [Crypto Fear & Greed Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fear-greed): Crypto market fear and greed index (0-100), extreme fear is contrarian bullish. (daily)
- [Equity Put/Call Ratio](https://convextrade.com/metrics/put-call-ratio): CBOE total equity put/call ratio, high readings signal fear, low readings signal complacency. (daily)
- [BTC Perpetual Funding Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/btc-funding): Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate, positive = longs pay shorts, negative = shorts pay longs. (daily)

### Supply Chain
- [NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure](https://convextrade.com/metrics/gscpi): New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, a z-score combining transportation costs and manufacturing PMI delivery times across seven economies. (monthly)

### TIC Foreign Holdings
- [Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fdhbfin): Federal debt held by foreign and international investors, the broadest measure of non-US Treasury ownership from FRED. (monthly)
- [Japan Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-japan): Japanese holdings of US Treasury securities, the largest single-country foreign holder; a window into BoJ-adjacent reserve management and yen-funding flows. (monthly)
- [China Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-china): Mainland Chinese holdings of US Treasury securities; tracked closely as a geopolitical and reserve-diversification signal since the 2018 trade war. (monthly)
- [UK Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-uk): United Kingdom holdings of US Treasury securities; a London-based custodial conduit that often understates the underlying owners. (monthly)
- [Belgium Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-belgium): Belgian holdings of US Treasury securities; Euroclear-domiciled custody amplifies the apparent holdings well beyond Belgian sovereign accounts. (monthly)
- [Luxembourg Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-luxembourg): Luxembourg holdings of US Treasury securities; a fund-domicile hub where mutual-fund ownership inflates reported balances. (monthly)
- [Switzerland Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-switzerland): Swiss holdings of US Treasury securities; SNB reserve allocations and private-bank custody combine in this line. (monthly)
- [Cayman Islands Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-cayman): Cayman Islands custodial holdings of US Treasury securities; a hedge-fund and SPV reporting domicile, almost entirely a conduit rather than a sovereign holder. (monthly)
- [Canada Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-canada): Canadian holdings of US Treasury securities; a mix of BoC reserves and Canadian pension and insurance fixed-income allocations. (monthly)
- [Ireland Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-ireland): Irish holdings of US Treasury securities; another fund-domicile conduit similar to Luxembourg. (monthly)
- [Taiwan Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-taiwan): Taiwanese holdings of US Treasury securities; CBC FX reserves and Taiwanese life insurer balance sheets dominate the line. (monthly)
- [India Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-india): Indian holdings of US Treasury securities; primarily RBI reserve allocations against the rupee. (monthly)
- [Hong Kong Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-hong-kong): Hong Kong holdings of US Treasury securities; HKMA reserves and a regional custodial hub serving the Greater China asset community. (monthly)
- [Brazil Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-brazil): Brazilian holdings of US Treasury securities; the largest Latin American sovereign holder, dominated by BCB reserves. (monthly)
- [Singapore Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-singapore): Singaporean holdings of US Treasury securities; MAS reserves and GIC asset-management positions co-mingle in the published number. (monthly)
- [France Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-france): French holdings of US Treasury securities; Banque de France reserves are part of the wider Eurosystem allocation captured under TIC. (monthly)
- [Saudi Arabia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-saudi-arabia): Saudi Arabian holdings of US Treasury securities; SAMA reserves backing the riyal-dollar peg form the bulk of the line. (monthly)
- [South Korea Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-korea): South Korean holdings of US Treasury securities; BOK reserves dominate, with NPS pension fixed-income exposure adding to the total. (monthly)
- [Norway Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-norway): Norwegian holdings of US Treasury securities; the Government Pension Fund Global accounts for most of the line. (monthly)
- [Germany Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-germany): German holdings of US Treasury securities; Bundesbank reserves and Eurosystem allocation share with other euro-area participants. (monthly)
- [Bermuda Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-bermuda): Bermuda-domiciled holdings of US Treasury securities; reinsurance and captive-insurance balance sheets constitute the bulk. (monthly)
- [Netherlands Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-netherlands): Dutch holdings of US Treasury securities; DNB reserves plus large pension-fund fixed-income exposure. (monthly)
- [UAE Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-uae): UAE holdings of US Treasury securities; ADIA and other sovereign wealth allocations contribute alongside the central bank. (monthly)
- [Australia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-australia): Australian holdings of US Treasury securities; RBA reserves and Future Fund fixed-income exposure together. (monthly)
- [Mexico Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-mexico): Mexican holdings of US Treasury securities; Banxico reserves anchored by deep US-Mexico trade integration. (monthly)
- [Thailand Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-thailand): Thai holdings of US Treasury securities; Bank of Thailand reserve allocation against baht. (monthly)
- [Philippines Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-philippines): Philippine holdings of US Treasury securities; BSP reserve management against peso volatility. (monthly)
- [Israel Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-israel): Israeli holdings of US Treasury securities; BoI reserves alongside private institutional balance sheets. (monthly)
- [Kuwait Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-kuwait): Kuwaiti holdings of US Treasury securities; KIA sovereign wealth allocation against future-generations mandate. (monthly)
- [Iraq Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-iraq): Iraqi holdings of US Treasury securities; CBI reserves linked closely to oil-revenue cycles. (monthly)
- [Poland Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-poland): Polish holdings of US Treasury securities; NBP reserve diversification post-2014 Russia incursion. (monthly)
- [Spain Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-spain): Spanish holdings of US Treasury securities; small relative to Eurosystem peers, mainly Banco de España allocation. (monthly)
- [Italy Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-italy): Italian holdings of US Treasury securities; Banca d'Italia reserves alongside private custody. (monthly)
- [Colombia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-colombia): Colombian holdings of US Treasury securities; BanRep reserves backing peso stability. (monthly)
- [Sweden Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-sweden): Swedish holdings of US Treasury securities; Riksbank reserves and AP fund pension exposure. (monthly)
- [Bahamas Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-bahamas): Bahamas-domiciled holdings of US Treasury securities; principally a hedge-fund custody jurisdiction. (monthly)
- [Vietnam Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-vietnam): Vietnamese holdings of US Treasury securities; SBV reserves built up rapidly through trade-surplus accumulation. (monthly)
- [Chile Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-chile): Chilean holdings of US Treasury securities; BCCh reserves and the Economic and Social Stabilization Fund's fixed-income allocation. (monthly)
- [Peru Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-peru): Peruvian holdings of US Treasury securities; BCRP reserves backing sol-dollar stability. (monthly)
- [Turkey Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-turkey): Turkish holdings of US Treasury securities; CBRT reserve composition is a frequently cited geopolitical and lira-stability indicator. (monthly)
- [Indonesia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-indonesia): Indonesian holdings of US Treasury securities; BI reserves anchored by commodity export receipts. (monthly)
- [South Africa Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-south-africa): South African holdings of US Treasury securities; SARB reserves with structurally smaller balances than Latin American peers. (monthly)
- [Russia Treasury Holdings](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tic-russia): Russian holdings of US Treasury securities; collapsed to near zero after the 2018 sell-off and 2022 sanctions. (monthly)

### TIPS & Breakevens
- [7Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii7): Yield on 7-year TIPS, the belly of the real yield curve. (daily)
- [20Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii20): Yield on 20-year TIPS, long-duration real rate component. (daily)
- [30Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii30): Yield on 30-year TIPS, the longest real yield tenor the Treasury issues. (daily)
- [20Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t20yiem): Monthly 20-year breakeven inflation rate, long-horizon market inflation expectations. (monthly)
- [30Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t30yiem): Monthly 30-year breakeven inflation rate, the longest-horizon inflation expectation gauge. (monthly)

### Treasury Auctions
- [2-Year Note Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 2-Year Note auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly)
- [2-Year Note Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 2-Year Note auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly)
- [2-Year Note Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 2-Year Note auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly)
- [2-Year Note Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 2-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly)
- [2-Year Note Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-2y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 2-Year Note auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly)
- [5-Year Note Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 5-Year Note auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly)
- [5-Year Note Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 5-Year Note auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly)
- [5-Year Note Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 5-Year Note auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly)
- [5-Year Note Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 5-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly)
- [5-Year Note Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-5y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 5-Year Note auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly)
- [10-Year Note Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 10-Year Note auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly)
- [10-Year Note Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 10-Year Note auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly)
- [10-Year Note Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 10-Year Note auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly)
- [10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 10-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly)
- [10-Year Note Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-10y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 10-Year Note auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly)
- [30-Year Bond Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 30-Year Bond auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (monthly)
- [30-Year Bond Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 30-Year Bond auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (monthly)
- [30-Year Bond Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 30-Year Bond auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (monthly)
- [30-Year Bond Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 30-Year Bond auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (monthly)
- [30-Year Bond Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-30y-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 30-Year Bond auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (monthly)
- [3-Month Bill Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 3-Month Bill auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (weekly)
- [3-Month Bill Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 3-Month Bill auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (weekly)
- [3-Month Bill Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 3-Month Bill auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (weekly)
- [3-Month Bill Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 3-Month Bill auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (weekly)
- [3-Month Bill Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-3m-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 3-Month Bill auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (weekly)
- [6-Month Bill Auction Bid-to-Cover](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-btr): Bid-to-cover ratio at the latest 6-Month Bill auction (total tendered / total accepted); readings above 2.5 signal robust demand, sub-2.2 signals softness. (weekly)
- [6-Month Bill Indirect Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-indirect): Indirect bidder share of accepted 6-Month Bill auction bids; indirects include foreign central banks and large real-money investors routed through primary dealers. (weekly)
- [6-Month Bill Direct Bidder Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-direct): Direct bidder share at the latest 6-Month Bill auction; directs are domestic non-primary-dealer investors bidding for their own account. (weekly)
- [6-Month Bill Primary Dealer Share](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-primary): Primary dealer share at the latest 6-Month Bill auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. (weekly)
- [6-Month Bill Auction High Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/auction-6m-yield): Stop-out (high) yield awarded at the latest 6-Month Bill auction; the clearing price that cleared the full issue size. (weekly)

### Treasury Operations
- [Treasury General Account (Daily)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/treas-tga-daily): Treasury General Account closing cash balance from the Daily Treasury Statement; tracks debt-ceiling drawdowns, tax-receipt seasonality, and bill-supply mechanics. (daily)

### Volatility
- [VIX](https://convextrade.com/metrics/vixcls): CBOE Volatility Index — the canonical "fear gauge" measuring S&P 500 expected 30-day volatility. Convex pairs the live reading with regime context, cross-asset signals, and what the level means for positioning. (daily)
- [CBOE SKEW Index](https://convextrade.com/metrics/cboe-skew): CBOE SKEW Index measures the perceived probability of a tail event (≥2σ move down) from S&P 500 options pricing; 100 = lognormal, >120 signals growing tail-hedge demand. (daily)
- [VVIX (Vol of Vol)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/vvix): CBOE VVIX measures the 30-day expected volatility of VIX itself, derived from VIX options; spikes without VIX rising can signal positioning stress. (daily)

### Yield Curve & Rates
- [3-Month Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs3mo): Yield on 3-month US Treasury bill, the shortest benchmark maturity on the curve. (daily)
- [1Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs1): Yield on 1-year US Treasury constant maturity securities. (daily)
- [2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs2): Yield on 2-year US Treasury, key Fed expectations proxy. (daily)
- [5Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs5): Yield on 5-year US Treasury constant maturity securities. (daily)
- [10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs10): Yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark. (daily)
- [30Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs30): Yield on 30-year US Treasury, long bond benchmark. (daily)
- [10Y-2Y Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10y2y): Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, classic recession signal when inverted. (daily)
- [10Y-3M Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10y3m): Spread between 10-year Treasury and 3-month T-bill, Fed's preferred recession indicator. (daily)
- [5Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii5): 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield, real cost of capital. (daily)
- [10Y Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfii10): 10-year TIPS yield, key driver for gold, crypto, and long-duration assets. (daily)
- [10Y Term Premium (ACM)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/threefytp10): Adrian-Crump-Moench 10Y term premium, compensation for duration risk. (daily)
- [SOFR](https://convextrade.com/metrics/sofr): Secured Overnight Financing Rate, replacement for LIBOR, reflects overnight repo rates. (daily)
- [Effective Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/effr): Effective federal funds rate, the actual rate banks charge each other overnight. (daily)
- [Fed Funds Target (Upper)](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dfedtaru): Upper bound of the FOMC target range for the federal funds rate. (daily)
- [Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/fedfunds): Monthly average federal funds rate, the primary tool of US monetary policy. (monthly)
- [Bank Prime Loan Rate](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dprime): Prime rate charged by commercial banks, benchmark for consumer and business loans. (daily)
- [5Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t5yie): 5-year breakeven inflation rate, market-implied inflation expectations. (daily)
- [5Y5Y Forward Inflation](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t5yifr): 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate, the Fed's preferred anchoring metric. (daily)
- [1-Month Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs1mo): One-month T-bill yield, the shortest on-the-run Treasury tenor. (daily)
- [6-Month Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs6mo): Six-month T-bill yield, a reliable proxy for expected policy rate over the coming half year. (daily)
- [3Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs3): Yield on 3-year US Treasury constant maturity securities. (daily)
- [7Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs7): Yield on 7-year US Treasury constant maturity securities, key mortgage-duration tenor. (daily)
- [20Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/dgs20): Yield on 20-year US Treasury, reintroduced in 2020 to anchor the long end of the curve. (daily)
- [5Y Treasury minus Fed Funds](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t5yff): Spread of 5-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; tracks market-implied Fed path vs short end. (daily)
- [10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds](https://convextrade.com/metrics/t10yff): Spread of 10-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; an alternative yield-curve recession gauge with longer record. (daily)
- [Canada Overnight Rate Target](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boc-overnight-rate): Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Rate, the primary policy rate set by the BoC Governing Council (Valet series V39079). (daily)
- [Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/metrics/boc-goc-10y): 10-year benchmark Government of Canada bond yield (Valet series V39055). The Canadian dollar-denominated long-rate anchor. (daily)

## What-Happens-When Scenarios (105 conditional scenarios)

- [What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts): What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal explained with live data.
- [What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30): What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions, and contrarian opportunities.
- [What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates): What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles.
- [What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-raises-rates): What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housing, and crypto explained.
- [What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cpi-surprises-hot): What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portfolio positioning explained.
- [What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-triggers): What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it means for your portfolio.
- [What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/hy-spreads-blow-out): What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality explained with live data.
- [What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply): What happens when the US dollar surges? Impact on emerging markets, commodities, corporate earnings, and global financial stability.
- [What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-price-spikes): What happens when oil prices spike? Inflation fears, consumer squeeze, recession risk, and the complex impact on stocks, bonds, and the dollar.
- [What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/housing-market-crashes): What happens when US home prices crash? The wealth effect, banking stress, and cascading economic impacts of a housing downturn explained.
- [What Happens When Unemployment Rises?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/unemployment-rises): What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback loop explained.
- [What Happens When Gold Surges?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-surges): What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio implications explained.
- [What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-crashes): What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into traditional markets.
- [What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/treasury-auction-fails): What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the global financial system.
- [What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/inflation-expectations-de-anchor): What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral.
- [What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-pauses-rate-hikes): What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, and what comes next after the final hike.
- [What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-crashes): What happens to global markets when the US dollar drops sharply? Impact on commodities, emerging markets, US equities, and the global financial system.
- [What Happens When Copper Surges?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/copper-surges): What happens when copper prices surge? Why "Dr. Copper" is the economy's best diagnostician, and what it means for equities, inflation, and global growth.
- [What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sp500-drops-20-percent): What happens when the stock market enters a bear market? Historical patterns, recovery timelines, asset class reactions, and what separates crashes that recover quickly from those that grind lower.
- [What Happens When Gold Hits $3,000?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-hits-3000): What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications for currencies, bonds, equities, and inflation.
- [What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/initial-claims-spike): What happens when weekly jobless claims surge? The highest-frequency recession indicator, what levels matter, and how markets respond to rising layoffs.
- [What Happens When Oil Drops Below $50?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-drops-below-50): What happens when crude oil crashes below $50? Deflationary signals, energy sector carnage, consumer benefits, and geopolitical implications.
- [What Happens When the VIX Drops Below 12?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-drops-below-12): What happens when market volatility hits extreme lows? The risks of complacency, historical parallels, and how to position when fear disappears from markets.
- [What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-rates-go-negative): What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice when holding cash guarantees losing purchasing power.
- [What Happens When Consumer Confidence Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/consumer-confidence-collapses): What happens when consumer sentiment craters? Does it actually predict spending? Historical analysis of confidence crashes and what they mean for markets.
- [What Happens When the Yield Curve Steepens Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-steepens): What happens when the yield curve steepens rapidly? Bull steepener vs bear steepener, recession timing, and the implications for banks, bonds, and equities.
- [What Happens When Credit Spreads Hit Record Tights?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/credit-spreads-compress): What happens when high yield credit spreads compress to historically tight levels? The risks of complacency in corporate credit, what it means for risk appetite, and how to position.
- [What Happens When Bitcoin Halves?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-halves): What happens to Bitcoin after a halving? Historical price cycles, supply shock mechanics, miner economics, and how halving interacts with macro conditions.
- [What Happens When Mortgage Rates Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/mortgage-rates-spike): What happens when 30-year mortgage rates spike? Impact on housing affordability, homebuilders, banks, consumer spending, and the broader economy.
- [What Happens When the Trade Deficit Widens Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/trade-deficit-widens): What happens when the US trade deficit surges? Dollar implications, tariff risk, manufacturing impact, and what it signals about relative global economic strength.
- [What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-lending-tightens): What happens when banks pull back on lending? How tighter credit standards predict recessions, default waves, and the transmission from Wall Street to Main Street.
- [What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/m2-contracts): What happens when the money supply shrinks? Monetarist deflation fears, historical rarity, and implications for asset prices, inflation, and economic growth.
- [What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/china-devalues-yuan): What happens when China devalues its currency? Global deflation export, emerging market contagion, commodity impact, and US equity market reactions.
- [What Happens When ISM Manufacturing Drops Below 45?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/ism-manufacturing-below-45): What happens when the manufacturing sector enters deep contraction? Historical recession correlation, supply chain effects, and market reactions to collapsing factory output.
- [What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/financial-conditions-tighten): What happens when the Chicago Fed NFCI signals tight financial conditions? How credit conditions transmit through the economy and what it means for every asset class.
- [What Happens When Breakeven Inflation Crashes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/breakeven-inflation-crashes): What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals a deflationary spiral that changes the playbook for every asset.
- [What Happens When the Savings Rate Hits Zero?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/savings-rate-hits-zero): What happens when Americans stop saving? The consumer spending cliff, credit card debt explosion, and what it means when the savings buffer is gone.
- [What Happens When Speculative Positioning Hits Extremes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/extreme-speculative-positioning): What happens when futures market positioning hits extreme levels? Contrarian signals, crowded trade risks, and how CFTC data helps identify turning points.
- [What Happens When Emerging Market Currencies Crash?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/em-currency-crisis): What happens when emerging market currencies collapse? Contagion risk, capital flight, commodity impact, and whether EM crises spill over to US markets.
- [What Happens When Natural Gas Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/natural-gas-spikes): What happens when natural gas prices spike? Winter heating costs, electricity prices, fertilizer costs, and the cascading economic effects of America's most volatile commodity.
- [What Happens When GDP Contracts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gdp-contracts): What happens to markets, policy, and the economy when real GDP contracts? Historical playbook for recession quarters, with current data.
- [What Happens When the Sahm Rule Exceeds 1.0?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-exceeds-1): The Sahm Rule triggers recession alerts when unemployment rises 0.5 points. What happens when it exceeds 1.0, signaling a deepening downturn?
- [What Happens When the Leading Economic Index Turns Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/leading-index-turns-negative): The Leading Economic Index anticipates recessions by 6-12 months. What happens when its six-month change turns negative, warning of contraction ahead?
- [What Happens When U-6 Unemployment Exceeds 10%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/u6-exceeds-10): U-6 captures broader labor underutilization beyond the headline rate. What happens when it exceeds 10%, signaling widespread labor stress?
- [What Happens When Capacity Utilization Falls Below 75%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/capacity-utilization-below-75): Industrial capacity utilization below 75% signals excess factory slack. What happens to inflation, earnings, and policy at these levels?
- [What Happens When Core PCE Exceeds 4%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/core-pce-exceeds-4): Core PCE above 4% represents severe Fed target overshoot. What happens to rates, markets, and the Fed when the preferred inflation gauge runs double target?
- [What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates to Zero?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-funds-reach-zero): Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) marks extreme monetary easing. What happens to markets, saving, and the economy when the Fed takes policy rates to zero?
- [What Happens When the 10Y Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/10y-exceeds-5-percent): 10-year Treasury yields above 5% represent extreme tightening of financial conditions. What happens to equities, housing, and the economy at these levels?
- [What Happens When SOFR Spikes Above Fed Funds?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sofr-funding-spike): SOFR spikes signal acute funding stress in Treasury repo markets. What happens when overnight funding rates rise above the Fed target?
- [What Happens When Investment Grade Spreads Compress Below 100 bps?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/ig-spreads-compress): IG corporate spreads below 100 bps signal credit-market complacency. What happens when investors accept minimal premium over Treasuries for corporate credit?
- [What Happens When Credit Card Delinquency Exceeds 5%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cc-delinquency-exceeds-5): Credit card delinquency above 5% signals acute consumer stress. What happens to retailers, banks, and the consumer economy at these levels?
- [What Happens When Commercial & Industrial Loans Contract?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/business-loans-contract): Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loan contraction signals bank credit retrenchment. What happens to growth, jobs, and investment when business credit shrinks?
- [What Happens When DXY Hits 120?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dxy-hits-120): Extreme dollar strength creates global stress. What happens when the broad dollar index hits multi-decade highs, pressuring emerging markets and commodities?
- [What Happens When the Euro Hits Parity with the Dollar?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/euro-hits-parity): EUR/USD parity signals extreme dollar strength and European economic stress. What happens to European equities, ECB policy, and global markets?
- [What Happens When USD/JPY Exceeds 160?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yen-weakens-past-160): Extreme yen weakness forces BoJ intervention decisions. What happens to Japanese equities, global carry trades, and Asian markets?
- [What Happens When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-silver-ratio-extreme): Gold-silver ratio above 90 signals industrial or financial stress. What happens when gold dramatically outpaces silver, a classic late-cycle warning?
- [What Happens When the Copper-Gold Ratio Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/copper-gold-ratio-collapses): Copper-gold ratio collapse signals growth concerns and is often called "Dr. Copper's recession warning". What happens when the industrial-to-monetary metals ratio crashes?
- [What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-hits-100k): Bitcoin above $100,000 marks a major psychological milestone. What happens to crypto markets, institutional adoption, and traditional finance at this level?
- [What Happens When Small Caps Outperform Large Caps?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/small-caps-outperform): What happens when IWM beats SPY by 10%+? Fed-pivot rotation, regional banks (KRE) leading, Russell 2000 historically up 20-40% during 2-4 year cycles.
- [What Happens When the Magnificent 7 Exceeds 30% of S&P 500?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/magnificent-7-dominates): Extreme mega-cap concentration creates fragility. What happens when the Magnificent 7 (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA) represents over 30% of the index?
- [What Happens When 30Y Mortgage Rates Exceed 8%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/mortgage-rate-exceeds-8): 30Y mortgage rates above 8% freeze the housing market. What happens to home sales, builders, and housing affordability at multi-decade rate highs?
- [What Happens When the Put-Call Ratio Spikes Above 1.2?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/put-call-ratio-spikes): Put-call ratios above 1.2 signal extreme fear and hedging demand. What happens when put options demand dramatically exceeds call options?
- [What Happens When Fear & Greed Index Hits Extreme Greed?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fear-greed-extreme-greed): Extreme greed readings signal euphoria and contrarian sell signals. What happens when sentiment indicators hit maximum optimism?
- [What Happens When the Convex Recession Probability Index Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-recession-index-spikes): What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicators, yield curve, credit spreads, and labor data.
- [What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-liquidity-index-contracts): What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus RRP falls.
- [What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-risk-appetite-collapses): What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call ratios, and positioning.
- [What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/nonfarm-payrolls-negative): What happens when Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) turn negative? Recession confirmation, Fed response, and historical market reactions to month-over-month job losses.
- [What Happens When Job Openings Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/job-openings-collapse): What happens when JOLTS job openings collapse? Labor market weakness, Fed response, and implications for wage growth and consumer spending.
- [What Happens When the Quits Rate Collapses?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/quits-rate-collapses): What happens when the JOLTS quits rate collapses below 2.0%? Loss of worker confidence, wage growth deceleration, and recession risk implications.
- [What Happens When the Labor Force Participation Rate Drops?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/participation-rate-drops): What happens when the labor force participation rate drops sharply? Implications for structural growth, unemployment measurement, and Fed policy.
- [What Happens When Average Weekly Hours Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/weekly-hours-collapse): What happens when weekly hours fall below 34.0? Pre-layoff labor signal: SPY estimates compress, XLY underperforms, retail sales decelerate 2-3pp YoY.
- [What Happens When Continuing Jobless Claims Surge?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/continuing-claims-surge): What happens when continuing unemployment claims surge above 2.0M? Signal that unemployed workers are having trouble finding new jobs.
- [What Happens When Real GDP Turns Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-gdp-negative): What happens when real GDP contracts? Recession definition, Fed response, and historical market behavior during negative growth quarters.
- [What Happens When Wage Growth Accelerates Above 5%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/wage-growth-accelerates): What happens when average hourly earnings accelerate above 5% year-over-year? Fed response, inflation implications, and market reactions to wage pressure.
- [What Happens When Energy CPI Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/energy-cpi-spikes): What happens when energy CPI spikes 20%+ year-over-year? Consumer spending impact, inflation expectations, and recession risk from energy shocks.
- [What Happens When Food Inflation Surges Above 10%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/food-inflation-surges): What happens when food CPI surges above 10%? Consumer sentiment impact, political consequences, and recession risk from food inflation.
- [What Happens When Shelter CPI Peaks?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/shelter-cpi-peaks): What happens when shelter CPI peaks and begins decelerating? Disinflation implications, Fed response, and market reactions to housing cost relief.
- [What Happens When PPI Turns Negative?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/ppi-deflates): What happens when Producer Price Index turns negative? Deflation risk, margin implications, and the leading signal for CPI disinflation.
- [What Happens When Fed Funds Rate Exceeds 6%?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-funds-exceed-6): What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents from restrictive policy.
- [What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/30y-yields-surge): What happens when 30-year Treasury yields surge above 5%? Bond market stress, fiscal concerns, and equity multiple compression.
- [What Happens When 10-Year Real Yields Turn Positive?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-yields-turn-positive): What happens when 10-year real yields turn positive after a prolonged negative period? Impact on gold, tech stocks, and risk assets.
- [What Happens When the Fed Reverse Repo Facility Drains to Zero?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/rrp-drains-to-zero): What happens when the Fed RRP facility drains? Liquidity implications, money market dynamics, and impact on bank reserves.
- [What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-balance-sheet-expands): What happens when the Fed restarts balance sheet expansion (QE)? Risk asset response, inflation implications, and historical precedents.
- [What Happens When Bank Reserves Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-reserves-collapse): What happens when bank reserves fall below $3T? Repo stress (SOFR +50-300bp), risk-off in SPY (5-15% drops), and potential Fed pivot back to QE.
- [What Happens When the Treasury General Account Drains?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/treasury-general-account-drains): What happens when the Treasury General Account (TGA) drains? Liquidity injection effects, risk asset response, and debt ceiling implications.
- [What Happens When Bank Lending Standards Tighten Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-credit-standards-tighten): What happens when banks sharply tighten lending standards? Credit contraction effects, business investment decline, and recession risk.
- [What Happens When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/credit-card-delinquencies-spike): What happens when credit card delinquencies cross 3.5%? Consumer-cycle stress: XLY underperforms, regional banks (KRE) take hits, TLT bid on Fed-cut bets.
- [What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/china-yuan-devalues): What happens when China devalues the yuan beyond 7.5? Global deflation impulse, emerging market stress, and US trade implications.
- [What Happens When the Japanese Yen Weakens Past 160?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/japan-yen-crisis): What happens when USDJPY breaks 160? BoJ intervention risk, carry-trade unwinds (Aug 2024 took S&P -7% and QQQ -10% in days), global VIX spikes.
- [What Happens When Natural Gas Prices Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/natural-gas-collapses): What happens when natural gas prices collapse below $2? Inflation relief, energy sector stress, and producer bankruptcy risk.
- [What Happens When Oil Drops Below $30?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-drops-below-30): What happens when WTI crude drops below $30? Energy (XLE) loses 30-50%, HY energy spreads blow out, 5Y breakevens fall 50-100bp, XLY benefits.
- [What Happens When Copper Surges to All-Time Highs?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/copper-surges-to-record): What happens when copper reaches new all-time highs? Economic signal, inflation implications, and electrification demand drivers.
- [What Happens When Defensive Sectors Lead the Market?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/defensive-sectors-lead): What happens when staples (XLP) sharply outperform discretionary (XLY)? Recession signal, defensive positioning, and sector rotation implications.
- [What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/regional-banks-stress): What happens when regional bank stocks (KRE) drop sharply? Deposit flight risk, commercial real estate exposure, and Fed response.
- [What Happens When Home Builder Stocks Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/home-builders-collapse): What happens when home builder stocks (XHB) collapse? Housing demand destruction, recession signals, and Fed rate implications.
- [What Happens When Retail Sales Contract?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/retail-sales-contract): What happens when retail sales contract for 3+ consecutive months? Consumer weakness signal, recession confirmation, and retail sector impact.
- [What Happens When Durable Goods Orders Plummet?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/durable-goods-plummet): What happens when durable goods orders plummet? Capex signal, manufacturing weakness, and investment cycle implications.
- [What Happens When Housing Starts Collapse?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/housing-starts-collapse): What happens when housing starts collapse below 1.1M? Housing cycle bottom signals, construction employment impact, and broader economic effects.
- [What Happens When Semiconductors Rally Sharply?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/semiconductors-rally): What happens when semiconductors (SMH) sharply outperform? AI investment cycle, global economic implications, and tech leadership signals.
- [What Happens When Corporate Profits Peak?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/corporate-profits-peak): What happens when corporate profits peak and begin declining? Earnings recession signal, equity market implications, and investment cycle impact.
- [What Happens When Industrial Production Declines?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/industrial-production-declines): What happens when industrial production declines for multiple months? Manufacturing recession signals, cyclical sector impact, and GDP implications.
- [What Happens When the Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/inventory-to-sales-spikes): What happens when business inventories rise sharply relative to sales? Destocking signal, production cuts, and recession implications.
- [What Happens When Real Personal Income Declines?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/personal-income-declines): What happens when real disposable personal income declines? Consumer spending implications, savings rate changes, and recession dynamics.
- [What Happens When European Stocks Outperform?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/european-stocks-rally): What happens when European stocks sharply outperform US equities? Sector rotation, currency implications, and relative valuation dynamics.
- [What Happens When VSTOXX European Volatility Spikes?](https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vstoxx-european-vol-spikes): What happens when VSTOXX European volatility exceeds 35? European stress signal, global spillover risk, and ECB policy implications.

## Featured Scenario × Asset Analysis (79 hand-curated long-form pages)

Each page: 700-1000 words across 5-6 H2 sections covering current snapshot, mechanism, 3 historical setups with verified data, and forward signals to watch. Numbers are sourced and dated; written by Convex Research Desk and edited by Ben Bleier.

### What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
#### What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Curve Positive, SPY at Record Highs** The 10-year Treasury yields 4.31% and the 2-year yields approximately 3.79% as of April 24, 2026, giving a positive 10Y-2Y slope of about 52 basis points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at $711.69 on April 28, 2026, near record highs. The Fed held the federal funds rate at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range at its…
**Why the Curve Drives Equities: Discount Rates and Credit** Equities respond to yield-curve inversion through two channels. The discount-rate channel: long-duration assets (large-cap growth equities, where most cash flow lies far in the future) are mathematically more sensitive to long-end rates. When the curve flattens because the long end is anchored or falling on growth…
**Setup 1: 2007 to 2009 Inversion → S&P 500 Lost 57%** The S&P 500 reached a record close of 1565.15 on October 9, 2007. The bear market that followed lasted until March 9, 2009, when the index closed at 676.53, a drawdown of approximately 57%. The intraday low of 666.79 was reached on March 6, 2009.
**Setup 2: 2019 to 2020 Inversion → COVID Compressed the Cycle** The 10Y-2Y first inverted on August 14, 2019, by less than 0.1 basis point, the shallowest inversion in the modern record. The S&P 500 ETF reached its pre-COVID record near $339 on February 19, 2020, then fell approximately 34% to its low on March 23, 2020. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25%…
**Setup 3: 2022 to 2024 Inversion → Curve Was Wrong (So Far)** The 10Y-2Y inverted in July 2022 and stayed inverted continuously for 26 months, the longest in the modern dataset. The peak inversion of -108 basis points was reached on July 3, 2023, the deepest reading since the early 1980s. The curve un-inverted in October 2024 as the Fed began its cutting cycle. The Fed funds…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the soft-landing case from the delayed-recession case for SPY:

#### What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?TLT $85.65, 10Y at 4.31%** The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed April 29, 2026 at $85.65, with a 52-week range of $83.91 to $92.05 and a 30-day SEC yield of 4.88%. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.31% and the 30-year yields approximately 4.55%. The Fed has cut from the 5.25% to 5.50% peak (last hike on July 27, 2023) to the current…
**Why the Curve Drives TLT: Bull Steepening Is the Engine** TLT performance through a yield-curve cycle is determined by which leg of the curve moves and by how much. Four canonical regimes drive the path:
**Setup 1: 2019 to 2020 Inversion → TLT Reached Its All-Time High** The 10Y-2Y first inverted on August 14, 2019 by less than a basis point. TLT rallied through the inversion-anticipation period and reached its all-time high of $179.70 on March 9, 2020 during the COVID emergency response. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two meetings in March 2020 and…
**Setup 2: 2022 to 2023 Inversion → TLT Lost 54%** The 2022 to 2023 cycle was a bear-flattening followed by a bear-steepening sequence and was catastrophic for TLT. From the March 9, 2020 high of $179.70 to the October 2023 low of $82.42, TLT lost 54%, one of the worst long-bond drawdowns in the modern era. The Fed hiked 525 basis points from the 0% to 0.25% trough to…
**Setup 3: October 2024 to April 2026 → Bull-Steepener Has Disappointed** The Fed began cutting on September 18, 2024 with a 50 basis point cut, then continued cutting through 2024 and into 2025. The cycle low for TLT printed in October 2023, ahead of the Fed actually cutting, which is the typical pattern. From the October 2023 low of $82.42 to the September 2024 range high of $101.64, TLT…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether TLT delivers the post-cuts duration rally or stays trapped in the $83 to $102 range:

#### What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Gold ~$4,613 Through the Cycle** Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce as of April 29, 2026, having dropped roughly 2% in the prior session to a one-month low. Gold reached its 2020s low of $1,656.43 on October 21, 2022, then rallied as the curve was inverting and continued higher through the un-inversion and the Fed cutting cycle.…
**Why the Curve Drives Gold: Real Rates Plus a Sovereign Bid** The classic gold-curve mechanism runs through real yields. When the curve inverts because the Fed has hiked the front end and inflation breakevens stay anchored, the 10-year real yield rises and gold should fall. When the curve un-inverts via the Fed cutting faster than the long end falls, real yields decline and gold…
**Setup 1: 2007 to 2009 Inversion → Gold Held Through the Crisis** Gold sold off sharply during the acute phase of the 2008 financial crisis as leveraged positions liquidated everything regardless of fundamentals. The post-Lehman low was approximately $692.50 in September 2008. Gold then rallied through the recession trough as the Fed cut to zero and launched its first quantitative…
**Setup 2: 2019 to 2020 Inversion → Gold Rallied Through COVID** The 10Y-2Y first inverted on August 14, 2019. The COVID-era window from the March 19, 2020 low at $1,471 to the August 6, 2020 peak at $2,069 captured the policy response in compressed form: the Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited…
**Setup 3: 2022 to 2026 Inversion-Then-Cuts → Gold Defied Real Rates** The 2022 to 2024 inversion is the most gold-bullish on record despite an unfavorable real-rate setup. From the October 2022 low at $1,656.43 to approximately $4,613 in late April 2026, gold has roughly tripled across the inversion-and-easing cycle. This happened with the 10-year real yield averaging well above zero, a…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals dominate the gold-curve setup over the next 12 months:

#### What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yield-curve-inverts/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC ~$77,000 After a 14-Month Bear vs Gold** Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on the morning of April 29, 2026. This is well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. Bitcoin has consolidated in a $75,000 to $80,000 range through 2026 after a bear market against gold that has lasted approximately 16 months from the December 2024 peak…
**Why the Curve Drives Bitcoin: Liquidity Channel, Not Discount Rate** Bitcoin's correlation with the yield curve runs through the global liquidity channel rather than the discount-rate channel that drives equities. BTC has no cash flows to discount, so changes in the term structure of interest rates do not directly affect its theoretical valuation. What matters is whether the macro…
**Setup 1: 2019 to 2021 Inversion → BTC Rallied 17x After COVID** The 10Y-2Y first inverted on August 14, 2019. Through the inversion-anticipation period and the COVID emergency response, BTC fell to $3,949 on March 13, 2020 during the global liquidation event, then rallied to $68,789 by November 10, 2021, a roughly 17x move from the March 2020 low. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75%…
**Setup 2: 2022 to 2024 Inversion → Cycle Bottom Was During Inversion** The 2022 to 2024 cycle has produced both the largest BTC drawdown since 2018 and a sustained recovery to a new all-time high. From the November 10, 2021 peak at $68,789 to the November 22, 2022 low at $15,480, BTC fell approximately 77% during the curve-flattening-into-inversion phase. The forced-deleveraging cascades…
**Setup 3: October 2025 to April 2026 → Cycle Has Disappointed** After reaching $126,198 on October 6, 2025, BTC has fallen back toward the $75,000 to $80,000 range through 2026. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio peaked near 40 ounces per BTC in December 2024 and stood at approximately 16.3 ounces per BTC in April 2026, a roughly 60% move against bitcoin in gold terms over approximately 16…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the cycle-complete case from the cycle-extension case:

### What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?
#### What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?VIX 17.83, SPY at Record Highs** The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.83 on April 28, 2026, with the April 2026 monthly average at 19.31. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28 at $711.69, near record highs. The VIX has spent most of 2026 in the normal 15 to 20 range, reflecting subdued realized volatility despite the Iran-driven oil…
**Why VIX Above 30 Drives SPY: Realized-Volatility Lag and Forced Deleveraging** The VIX is forward-looking implied volatility from S&P 500 options, but it tends to lead realized volatility by days rather than weeks. A VIX break above 30 typically means the options market has identified a stressor that is not yet fully priced in cash equities. The transmission to SPY runs through three channels.
**Setup 1: October 2008 → VIX 89, SPY -57% Cycle** The VIX intraday peak of 89.53 on October 24, 2008 came in the middle of the October 2008 equity collapse. The S&P 500 had fallen from 1,565.15 (October 9, 2007 peak) to 848.92 by October 24, 2008, a 46% drawdown to that point. The index ultimately bottomed at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, a total drawdown of approximately…
**Setup 2: March 2020 → VIX 82, SPY -34% in Five Weeks** The COVID-19 emergency drove the VIX to a closing peak of 82.69 on March 16, 2020. SPY had peaked at approximately $339 on February 19, 2020 and fell approximately 34% to its low on March 23, 2020, a five-week drawdown that was the fastest in modern history. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to…
**Setup 3: August 2024 → VIX 65, SPY -6% in Three Days** The VIX spiked to 65 intraday on August 5, 2024 from a prior-day close of 23, the largest single-day VIX surge (+180%) in history. The trigger was the yen carry trade unwind: the BoJ delivered a 15 basis point hike to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, the August 2 nonfarm payrolls report came in at 114k vs 176k expected with a…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the resolved-spike case from the start-of-bear case during a hypothetical VIX break above 30:

#### What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?VIX 17.83, TLT $85.65** The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.83 on April 28, 2026, in the middle of its normal 15-to-20 range per 24/7 Wall St. The VIX briefly spiked to approximately 31 in late March 2026 around the Iran-related stress episode before pulling back to current levels. The April 2026 monthly average per FRED is 19.31.…
**Why VIX Spikes Drive TLT: Three Reinforcing Channels** TLT response to VIX spikes runs through three reinforcing channels with different magnitudes and time-scales. The flight-to-quality channel: investors rotate from equities and credit into Treasuries when systemic risk perception rises. The flow magnitude during prior VIX spikes has been substantial: the 2008 cycle saw…
**Setup 1: 2008 Cycle → VIX 89.53, TLT +28.3% in Calendar 2008** VIX intraday high of 89.53 on October 24, 2008 (closing peak 79.13 same day) per Macroption/Wikipedia data. The S&P 500 fell from peak 1,565.15 (October 9, 2007) to 676.53 trough (March 9, 2009), a 56.8% peak-to-trough drawdown. TLT delivered approximately +28.3% in calendar 2008 per EBC Financial Group analysis, the…
**Setup 2: March 2020 → VIX 82.69, TLT $179.70 ATH** VIX closing peak of 82.69 on March 16, 2020 per Wikipedia/Macroption data, with intraday peaks above 85 across the worst week of the COVID liquidation. The S&P 500 fell 33.9% from February 19, 2020 peak ($339 SPY equivalent) to March 23, 2020 trough across 32 days, the fastest bear market in modern history per…
**Setup 3: August 2024 → VIX 65 Intraday, TLT Stable** VIX intraday spike to 65 on August 5, 2024 per BIS Bulletin 90 (closing 40 same day), driven primarily by the BoJ rate hike on July 31 that triggered yen-funded carry-trade unwinding plus the Sahm Rule trigger from the August 2 NFP release. TOPIX fell -12% on August 5, 2024 alone per BIS analysis. JPMorgan estimated…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether a future VIX spike from current 17.83 levels would produce TLT outperformance similar to 2008/2020 or muted returns similar to 2024:

#### What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?VIX 17.83, Gold $4,613** The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.83 on April 28, 2026, with the April 2026 monthly average at 19.31. Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce. Gold has rallied through a relatively low-volatility environment since the October 2022 cycle low at $1,656.43, with most of the 178% rally occurring…
**Why VIX Above 30 Drives Gold: Two Phases of Response** Gold during a VIX-above-30 episode responds in two phases. Phase 1 is the acute deleveraging window (typically 1 to 5 trading days from the VIX spike). During this phase, gold can sell off temporarily because forced-margin liquidations require dollar liquidity, and gold is one of the most liquid non-dollar assets to…
**Setup 1: 2008 VIX 89 → Gold $692 Low Then Multi-Year Bull** The VIX intraday peak of 89.53 on October 24, 2008 came in the middle of the most severe gold drawdown of that cycle. Gold had peaked at approximately $1,033 in March 2008, fell to approximately $830 in early September, and reached its post-Lehman low of $692.50 in late September 2008. The drawdown was roughly 33%…
**Setup 2: March 2020 VIX 82 → Gold V-Bottomed at $1,471** The COVID-driven VIX peak of 82.69 on March 16, 2020 coincided with gold's temporary low of $1,471 on March 19, 2020. Gold had been trading near $1,650 at the start of March 2020 and fell roughly 11% during the acute phase as forced liquidations hit. The drawdown was milder than 2008 because the deleveraging cascade…
**Setup 3: August 2024 VIX 65 → Gold Held $2,400-Plus** The VIX spike to 65 on August 5, 2024 produced a different gold pattern than the 2008 or 2020 episodes. Gold was trading near $2,400-$2,500 in early August 2024 and held through the carry-trade unwind without a meaningful drawdown. The reason was the central-bank reserve bid that has dominated gold flows since 2022:…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals dominate the gold-versus-VIX-above-30 setup over the next 12 months:

#### What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?VIX 17.83, BTC $77,160** The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.83 on April 28, 2026, with the April 2026 monthly average at 19.31. Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on April 29, 2026, well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. Total US spot bitcoin ETF AUM exceeds $102 billion as of April 23, 2026. ETF…
**Why VIX Above 30 Drives Bitcoin: High-Beta Risk-Off** Bitcoin during a VIX-above-30 episode responds primarily through the high-beta risk-asset channel. BTC has typically traded as a 2.5x to 3x leveraged equity position during equity stress events: SPY drawdowns of 5% have historically corresponded with BTC drawdowns of 12% to 15%; SPY -10% has typically meant BTC -25%…
**Setup 1: March 2020 VIX 82 → BTC -57% in Two Weeks** The COVID-driven VIX peak of 82.69 on March 16, 2020 coincided with bitcoin's most severe drawdown of the modern era. BTC had been trading near $9,200 at the start of March 2020 and fell to $3,949 on March 13, 2020, a 57% drawdown in approximately two weeks. The drop was driven by global liquidation as all asset…
**Setup 2: August 2024 VIX 65 → BTC -17% Then Recovery** The VIX spike to 65 on August 5, 2024 produced a much more contained BTC response than the 2020 episode. BTC fell from approximately $65,000 on August 1 to $54,000 on August 5, a roughly 17% drawdown across the carry-trade-unwind window, before recovering to the $60,000 area within a week and to new highs by October…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → ETF Bid Active, Macro Triggers Multiple** BTC at $77,160 in April 2026 is in a different position than during prior VIX-above-30 episodes. The ETF bid is substantial ($102 billion total AUM, $63 billion at IBIT alone) and has been net-positive for four consecutive weeks through April 24. The April 2026 macro backdrop has multiple potential VIX-above-30…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-drawdown case from the cascade case for BTC during a hypothetical VIX-above-30 event:

#### What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/vix-exceeds-30/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?VIX 17.83, QQQ $657.55** The VIX closed April 28, 2026 at 17.83 per Yahoo Finance/FRED, with April 2026 monthly average of 19.31. This is comfortably inside the "normal" range of 15 to 20 per 24/7 Wall St analysis. The Invesco QQQ Trust closed the same day at $657.55 per Yahoo Finance/Stockanalysis, with the 52-week high of $664.51 set on…
**Why VIX>30 Drives QQQ: High-Beta Amplification** QQQ response to VIX>30 episodes runs through three channels that all amplify QQQ moves relative to SPY. The direct beta channel: QQQ has a 1.27 beta to SPY per PortfoliosLab, meaning a 10% SPY drawdown during a VIX spike historically translates to approximately 12 to 15% QQQ damage. The relationship is not constant…
**Setup 1: October 2008 VIX 89.53, NASDAQ -54%** The VIX hit its all-time intraday high of 89.53 on October 24, 2008 per Macroption/Wikipedia, with closing peak of 79.13 the same day. NASDAQ Composite fell 17.7% in October 2008 alone per Wikipedia/Investopedia, the worst single month, contributing to the QQQ peak-to-trough drawdown of -53.5% per Advisor Perspectives…
**Setup 2: March 2020 COVID VIX 82.69, QQQ -27% in 23 Days** The VIX hit its closing peak of 82.69 on March 16, 2020 per Wikipedia/Macroption, with intraday spikes throughout March 2020 during the COVID liquidity crisis. QQQ fell approximately -27% peak-to-trough from February 19 to March 23, 2020, in just 23 trading days, the fastest growth-stock bear market in modern history.…
**Setup 3: August 5, 2024 VIX 65, QQQ Recovery in 2 Weeks** The VIX intraday spiked to 65 on August 5, 2024 per BIS Bulletin 90 and multiple sources (a 180% intraday surge from the August 2 close of 23, the largest single-day VIX spike in history), then closed at approximately 40. QQQ opened down approximately 5% with intraday losses near 6% per Forex.com/Yahoo, then closed…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next VIX>30 episode produces the 2008 sustained drawdown pattern, the 2020 sharp-but-brief pattern, or the 2024 positioning-driven pattern with rapid recovery:

### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?
#### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?175bp of Cuts, SPY at Record Highs** The Fed held the federal funds rate at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range at its April 2026 meeting, the third consecutive hold, with the FOMC split 8 to 4 on the decision. The peak was the 5.25% to 5.50% range reached on July 27, 2023 (the last hike of the cycle). The Fed has now cut 175 basis points across six rate…
**Why Cuts Drive Equities: Discount Rates Plus the Recession Signal** Equities respond to Fed cuts through two opposing channels. The discount-rate channel is mechanically positive: lower policy rates compress the discount rate applied to future cash flows and lift growth-equity multiples. This is why the S&P 500 ETF can rally hard in the months after the first cut, particularly when…
**Setup 1: 2007 Rate-Cut Cycle → SPY Lost 57% in 17 Months** The Fed began cutting in September 2007 with the 5.25% target rate. The S&P 500 index closed at a record 1565.15 on October 9, 2007, just three weeks after the first cut. The market then fell 57% to its closing low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009. The Fed cut all the way to a 0% to 0.25% target by December 2008 and…
**Setup 2: 2019 Insurance Cuts → COVID Compressed the Cycle** The Fed cut three times in 2019 (July, September, October) for a total of 75 basis points, framed as "insurance" against a slowing global economy and trade-war disruption. The 10Y-2Y curve had inverted briefly on August 14, 2019 by less than a basis point. SPY rallied through the insurance-cut period and reached its…
**Setup 3: 2024 to 2026 Cuts → SPY Compounded Through the Cycle** The current cut cycle began with the 50 basis point cut on September 18, 2024 (taking the target range to 4.75% to 5.00%). Two more 25bp cuts followed in November and December 2024, bringing the Fed funds target to 4.25% to 4.50% by year-end. Three additional 25bp cuts at the final 2025 meetings brought the rate to…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the soft-landing case from the delayed-recession case for SPY:

#### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?TLT $85.65 Despite 175bp of Cuts** The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed April 29, 2026 at $85.65, with a 52-week range of $83.91 to $92.05 and a 30-day SEC yield of 4.88%. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.31% and the 30-year yields approximately 4.55%. The Fed has cut 175 basis points from the 5.25% to 5.50% peak (July 2023) to the current…
**Why Cuts Drive TLT: Bull-Steepener Mathematics** TLT performance during a Fed cut cycle is governed by which leg of the curve moves and by how much. Through duration mathematics, every 25 basis point move in long-end yields translates to roughly 4.5% in TLT price (TLT effective duration is approximately 17.5 years).
**Setup 1: 2007 to 2009 Cuts → TLT Rallied Through the Crisis** The Fed began cutting from the 5.25% target rate in September 2007 and went all the way to 0% to 0.25% by December 2008, then launched its first quantitative easing program. Long-duration Treasuries delivered some of the strongest returns of that cycle. Bonds meaningfully outperformed the S&P 500 in three of nine…
**Setup 2: 2019 to 2020 Cuts → TLT Reached Its All-Time High** The Fed cut three times in 2019 for a total of 75 basis points, then cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020. The Fed launched a Treasury-purchases program at the long end of the curve as part of the COVID emergency response. TLT reached its all-time high of…
**Setup 3: 2024 to 2026 Cuts → Bull Steepener Has Disappointed** The Fed began cutting on September 18, 2024 with a 50 basis point cut. TLT had already bottomed at $82.42 in October 2023 (typical pattern: bond markets price cuts before the Fed delivers them). From the cycle low to the September 2024 range high of $101.64, TLT delivered the duration kicker that the bull-steepener…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether TLT delivers the post-cuts duration rally or stays trapped in the $83 to $102 range:

#### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Gold ~$4,613, Fed Cut 175bp from Peak** Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce as of April 29, 2026. The Fed has cut from the 5.25% to 5.50% peak (July 27, 2023) to the current 3.50% to 3.75% range, a total of 175 basis points across nine rate decisions starting with the 50 basis point cut on September 18, 2024. The 10-year TIPS real yield…
**Why Cuts Drive Gold: Real Rates Plus Dollar Plus Sovereign Bid** Gold during a Fed cut cycle responds through three channels. The real-rate channel is the textbook driver: lower nominal rates with anchored breakevens push real yields down and lift gold. This worked cleanly from 2010 to 2022. The dollar channel is the second: rate-differential compression typically weakens the…
**Setup 1: 2007 Rate-Cut Cycle → Gold Rallied 39% in 24 Months** The Fed began cutting from the 5.25% peak in September 2007 and went all the way to 0% to 0.25% by December 2008, then launched the first quantitative easing program in late 2008. Gold rallied approximately 39% in the 24 months following the September 2007 first cut, the strongest 24-month return through any recent…
**Setup 2: 2019 Insurance Cuts → Gold +26% in 24 Months** The Fed cut three times in 2019 for a total of 75 basis points, framed as insurance against a global slowdown. Gold rallied approximately 26% in the 24 months following the July 2019 first cut. Then COVID arrived, and the Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March…
**Setup 3: 2024 to 2026 Cuts → Strongest Gold Cycle on Record** From the October 22, 2022 low of $1,656.43 to approximately $4,613 in late April 2026, gold has rallied roughly 180%. The path took gold through the deepest yield-curve inversion since 1980 (-108bp on July 3, 2023), the Fed funds peak at 5.25% to 5.50% in July 2023, the un-inversion in October 2024, and the 175 basis…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals dominate the gold-cuts setup over the next 12 months:

#### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC ~$77,000 After the October 2025 Peak** Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on the morning of April 29, 2026. This is well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. The Fed has cut 175 basis points from the 5.25% to 5.50% peak to the current 3.50% to 3.75% target range, with the first 50 basis point cut on September 18, 2024 and…
**Why Cuts Drive Bitcoin: Liquidity and Dollar Channels** Bitcoin's correlation with Fed cuts runs through the global liquidity channel and the dollar channel rather than the discount-rate channel that drives equities. BTC has no cash flows to discount, so changes in the policy rate do not directly affect any theoretical valuation. What matters is whether the macro…
**Setup 1: 2008 Cuts → Bitcoin Did Not Yet Exist** The 2007 to 2009 Fed cut cycle predates Bitcoin. The Bitcoin whitepaper was published October 31, 2008, and the genesis block was mined January 3, 2009, both after the Fed had begun cutting and during the early phase of QE1. There is no BTC price data for comparison to that cycle. The 2007 to 2009 episode is relevant…
**Setup 2: 2019 to 2021 Cuts Plus QE → BTC Rallied 17x** The Fed cut three times in 2019 for a total of 75 basis points, then cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited quantitative easing. BTC fell to $3,949 on March 13, 2020 during the COVID liquidation event, then rallied to $68,789 by November 10,…
**Setup 3: 2024 to 2026 Cuts → Initial Rally, Then Bear vs Gold** The September 18, 2024 Fed cut produced a clean BTC reaction: BTC traded near $61,000 on the day of the cut, gained approximately 6.6% within the week to roughly $64,300, and gained roughly 11% within the month. The rally extended through 2024 and 2025, with BTC crossing $100,000 on December 4, 2024 and reaching its…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the cycle-complete case from the cycle-extension case:

#### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates? → Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates/dtwexbgs
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Broad Dollar 118.86, DXY 98.92** The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) reads 118.86 in April 2026 (Index basis: January 2006 equals 100). The narrower DXY ICE futures index, which weights only major-currency pairs (EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%), trades at 98.92 on April 29, 2026, up from 98.60 the prior day.…
**Why Cuts Drive the Dollar: Rate Differentials and Safe-Haven Crosscurrents** The dollar during a Fed cut cycle responds through two opposing channels. The rate-differential channel is the textbook driver: when the Fed cuts faster than the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan, the interest-rate spread narrows in foreign currency's favor, capital flows out of the dollar, and the trade-weighted…
**Setup 1: 2007 to 2008 Cuts → DXY Fell to All-Time Low** The Fed began cutting from the 5.25% target rate in September 2007. The DXY fell to its all-time low of 70.698 on March 16, 2008, a low that has not been retested since. The dollar weakness coincided with the 250 basis points of cuts the Fed delivered between October 2007 and April 2008, plus the broader narrative…
**Setup 2: 2019 to 2020 Cuts → Dollar Range-Bound** The Fed cut 75 basis points in 2019, then cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited QE. The dollar weakened modestly through the 2019 insurance cuts, briefly rallied during the March 2020 COVID flight-to-safety as global investors scrambled for…
**Setup 3: 2024 to 2026 Cuts → Dollar Range-Bound Despite 175bp** The Fed has cut 175 basis points since September 18, 2024. Under the textbook rate-differential model, this should have weakened the trade-weighted index by 5% to 10%. In practice the broad dollar (DTWEXBGS) is at 118.86 in April 2026, and DXY trades at 98.92, both modestly below their 2024 highs but well above the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the dollar resumes its textbook decline or stays range-bound:

#### What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates? → High Yield Credit (HYG)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-cuts-rates/hyg
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?HY Spread 284bp, HYG $80.48** The ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread reads approximately 284 basis points in April 2026, well below the 800 basis point recession-warning threshold and among the tightest readings in HY history. The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) closed April 26, 2026 at $80.48 with a SEC yield of…
**Why Fed Cuts Drive HYG: Three Reinforcing Channels** HYG response to Fed cuts runs through three channels with reinforcing magnitudes. The spread-compression channel: Fed cuts reduce the discount rate against which credit spreads are measured, which mechanically tightens HY OAS unless default expectations rise faster than the rate cut. Historical pattern: HY spreads…
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 Fed Cuts → HYG Birth and Stress** The HYG ETF launched in April 2007, just before the worst credit cycle in modern history. The Fed delivered its first cut from a 5.25% target rate in September 2007 and continued cutting all the way to 0% to 0.25% by December 2008. HY spreads widened from approximately 300 basis points in October 2007 to over 2,100…
**Setup 2: 2020 Fed Cuts → HYG +5% Year With Mid-Year Spike** The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited QE plus the unprecedented Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, which directly purchased HY ETFs including HYG. HY spreads widened from approximately 300bp in February 2020 to 1,100bp by…
**Setup 3: 2024-2025 Fed Cuts → HYG +18% Cumulative Through April 2026** The Fed delivered its first cut of the current cycle on September 18, 2024 (a 50bp move taking the target to 4.75% to 5.00%), followed by 25bp cuts in November and December 2024 (totaling 100bp in 2024) plus an additional 75 basis points across 2025, bringing the upper bound to 3.75% by late 2025 where it has held…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next leg of HYG performance follows the benign 2024 to 2026 template or shifts toward credit-cycle stress:

### What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?
#### What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-raises-rates/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?No Hikes, But the Pivot Is on the Table** The Fed held the federal funds rate at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range at its April 2026 meeting, the third consecutive hold. The FOMC was split 8 to 4 on the decision, with the statement calling inflation "elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." The last actual hike was on July 27,…
**Why Hikes Drive Equities: Discount Rates and the Earnings Channel** Equities respond to Fed hikes through two channels. The discount-rate channel is mechanically negative: higher policy rates raise the discount rate applied to future cash flows and compress growth-equity multiples. Long-duration equities (large-cap tech, the Magnificent 7, anything where most cash flow lies far in the…
**Setup 1: 1994 Bond Rout → SPY Modest Gain Despite Bond Crisis** The Fed hiked 250 basis points in 1994, taking the federal funds rate from 3.00% to 5.50% over the year. The first hike was 25bp in February 1994. The bond market response was violent: 30-year Treasury yields rose more than 150 basis points over the first nine months of the year, producing approximately $1.5 trillion…
**Setup 2: 2015 to 2018 Gradual Hikes → SPY Up 19% Plus Post-Cycle Spike** The Fed hiked from 0.00% to 0.25% to 2.25% to 2.50% over 36 months from December 2015 to December 2018, the longest and most gradual hiking cycle in modern history. The S&P 500 rose from approximately 2,100 in November 2015 to approximately 2,490 by December 2018, a roughly 19% gain over the cycle. After the December…
**Setup 3: 2022 to 2023 Hikes → SPY Lost 18% in 2022** The Fed delivered 525 basis points of hikes over 16 months from March 2022 to July 2023, the fastest hiking cycle in 40 years. Eleven consecutive hikes included four 75-basis-point hikes in 2022 (the largest individual moves since Volcker). The trigger was CPI peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, a 40-year high driven by…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would shift the probability of a Fed hiking pivot:

#### What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-raises-rates/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC ~$77,000, Memory of the 2022 Drawdown Is Fresh** Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on the morning of April 29, 2026, well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. The Fed held the federal funds rate at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range at its April 2026 meeting (8-4 dissent, statement calling inflation "elevated"). The last hike was July…
**Why Hikes Drive Bitcoin: Liquidity Channel Goes Hard Negative** Bitcoin's correlation with Fed hikes runs through the global liquidity channel and the dollar channel. Higher policy rates strengthen the dollar via rate-differential, raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding BTC, and reduce the supply of risk-asset capital chasing returns. The 2022 cycle was the textbook…
**Setup 1: 2015 to 2018 Gradual Hikes → BTC Limited Macro Sensitivity** Bitcoin during the 2015 to 2018 Fed gradual hiking cycle had little observable macro sensitivity. BTC reached its first major all-time high of $19,783 on December 17, 2017 per the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, then declined approximately 73% during 2018 to a December 2018 low of approximately $3,250. The price path…
**Setup 2: 2022 to 2023 Hikes → BTC Lost 77% in 12 Months** The 2022 cycle is the canonical bear case for BTC during Fed hiking. From the November 10, 2021 peak at $68,789 to the November 22, 2022 low at $15,480, BTC fell approximately 77% over 12 months. The Fed's 525 basis point hiking cycle from 0.00% to 0.25% to 5.25% to 5.50% in 16 months was the underlying macro driver;…
**Setup 3: April 2026 Tail Risk** No actual hiking is happening in April 2026. The scenario "what if the Fed pivots back to hiking" is a tail risk made plausible by the 8-4 FOMC dissent and the inflation-elevated statement. The probability is low (markets price the next move as a cut), but the magnitude of a BTC drawdown if the Fed did pivot makes the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would shift the probability of a hawkish-pivot BTC drawdown:

#### What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-raises-rates/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Gold ~$4,613, No Hikes Yet but Inflation Elevated** Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce as of April 29, 2026. The Fed has held the federal funds rate at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range for three consecutive meetings, with the April 2026 statement calling inflation "elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." The last…
**Why Hikes Drive Gold: Real Rates Versus the Reserve Bid** Gold during a Fed hiking cycle is the textbook losing trade. Higher policy rates (with anchored inflation expectations) push real yields up, raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and typically strengthen the dollar through rate-differential channels. The 2010 to 2022 correlation between gold and…
**Setup 1: 1994 Bond Rout → Gold Modestly Lower** The Fed hiked 250 basis points in 1994 from 3.00% to 5.50%. Gold finished 1994 at approximately $383 per ounce, an annual return of roughly -2%. The 1994 cycle is the textbook negative-for-gold case: hikes were preemptive against inflation that never materialized strongly, real yields rose, and gold had no structural…
**Setup 2: 2015 to 2018 Gradual Hikes → Gold +14% in Three Years** The Fed hiked from 0.00% to 0.25% to 2.25% to 2.50% over 36 months from December 2015 to December 2018. Gold rose from approximately $1,140 to approximately $1,300, a 14% gain over the gradual cycle. This is consistent with the historical pattern that gold "fares best during Fed-rate-hike cycles when they are…
**Setup 3: 2022 to 2023 Hikes → Gold Held Despite the 525bp Shock** The 2022 to 2023 cycle is the most important precedent for gold during hiking because it was the most aggressive cycle in 40 years, and gold still held up. Gold opened 2022 near $1,800, fell to approximately $1,656.43 in October 2022 (the 2020s decade low), then recovered to finish 2022 near $1,806, a 2022 return of…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would shape gold's response to a hypothetical 2026 hiking pivot:

### What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?
#### What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cpi-surprises-hot/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?CPI 3.3% YoY, TLT $85.65** The March 2026 CPI report released April 10, 2026 printed at 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February, with headline rising 0.9% month-over-month, the largest monthly jump in three years. Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% over the year. The 10-year Treasury yields 4.31% on April 24, 2026, with the 30-year…
**Why Hot CPI Drives TLT: Term Premium and Real-Yield Path** TLT during a hot CPI surprise responds through three channels. The breakeven channel: an upside CPI surprise lifts inflation breakevens, which mechanically lifts nominal yields if real yields stay constant. Through duration mathematics, every 25 basis point move in long-end yields translates to roughly 4.5% in TLT…
**Setup 1: 2021-2022 Inflation Surge → TLT Lost 54%** CPI accelerated through 2021 from 1.4% in January to 7.0% by December, then hit a 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The 2-year Treasury yield surged to 3.159% on the June 2022 CPI release day, and the 10-year traded at 3.025%; both moved roughly 20 to 30 basis points on the print itself. Core CPI peaked at 6.6% in…
**Setup 2: October 2023 to April 2026 → Disinflation, TLT Stuck** CPI declined from the 9.1% June 2022 peak to roughly 2.4% by February 2026, a more than 600 basis point disinflation. Under the textbook model, this should have produced a substantial TLT rally. The Fed delivered 175 basis points of cuts starting September 2024. The 10-year nominal yield fell from above 5% in October…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Hot CPI Tests TLT Floor** The March 2026 CPI at 3.3% headline YoY is the largest single-month upside surprise since the 2021 to 2022 inflation surge. Energy-concentrated drivers (gasoline +21.2% MoM tied to Iran) and core CPI undershoot at 2.6% (below estimate by 0.1pp) reduce the urgency of a Fed hawkish pivot. The 10-year breakeven inflation…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine the TLT path after the March 2026 hot CPI print:

#### What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cpi-surprises-hot/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?CPI 3.3% YoY, SPY at Record Highs** The March 2026 CPI report released April 10, 2026 printed at 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February, with headline rising 0.9% month-over-month, the largest monthly jump in three years. Core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, 0.1 percentage point below estimates. The headline surge was driven by gasoline prices rising 21.2% on…
**Why Hot CPI Drives SPY: Discount Rate Plus Fed-Pivot Risk** SPY during a hot CPI surprise responds through two opposing channels. The discount-rate channel: hot CPI lifts nominal yields, which compresses the discount applied to growth-equity cash flows. Long-duration growth equities (the largest weights in the S&P 500) are mathematically more sensitive to yield changes than…
**Setup 1: 2022 Inflation Surge → SPY -25% from Peak** The S&P 500 reached its prior record close of 4,796 on January 3, 2022. CPI was already running at 7.0% YoY at that point, having accelerated from 1.4% twelve months earlier. The June 2022 print at 9.1% YoY exceeded the 8.8% Dow Jones consensus and marked the highest reading since November 1981. The Fed responded with…
**Setup 2: 2024 Calendar Year → SPY +25% as Disinflation Held** CPI declined from the 9.1% June 2022 peak to 2.9% by July 2024 and to 2.4% by February 2026. The Fed delivered 175 basis points of cuts starting September 18, 2024 (50bp first cut, 25bp×2 in late 2024, then 25bp×3 in late 2025). SPY delivered a +24.89% total return in calendar 2024 and a +17.72% total return in…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Iran-Driven Hot Print, Fed 8-4 Split** The March 2026 CPI at 3.3% headline YoY is the largest single-month upside surprise since the 2021 to 2022 inflation surge. The driver is narrowly identifiable (gasoline +21.2% MoM tied to Iran-related oil supply disruption) and core CPI undershot at 2.6% (below estimate by 0.1pp). The April 2026 FOMC was 8-4 split,…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the SPY-extends-rally case from the SPY-corrects case after the March 2026 hot CPI:

#### What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cpi-surprises-hot/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?CPI 3.3% YoY, Gold $4,613** The March 2026 CPI report released April 10, 2026 printed at 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February. The headline rose 0.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, the largest monthly jump in three years. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% over the year, both 0.1 percentage point…
**Why Hot CPI Drives Gold: Real Yields and the Fed Reaction Function** Gold during a hot CPI surprise responds through two channels. The breakeven channel: an upside CPI surprise lifts inflation breakevens directly, which mechanically compresses real yields if nominal yields do not rise as fast. The current 10-year breakeven sits at 2.33% with the 10-year nominal at 4.31% and 10-year…
**Setup 1: 2021-2022 Inflation Surge → Gold Range-Bound at $1,800** CPI accelerated through 2021 from 1.4% in January to 7.0% by December, then hit a 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022, exceeding the 8.8% Dow Jones consensus and marking the highest reading since November 1981. Core CPI peaked at 6.6% in September 2022, the cycle high. Energy rose 41.6% YoY in June 2022 with gasoline up…
**Setup 2: October 2022 to April 2026 → Gold Tripled Despite Disinflation** CPI declined from the 9.1% June 2022 peak to roughly 2.4% by February 2026, a more than 600 basis point disinflation. Under the textbook 2010 to 2022 model, gold should have continued to decline through this disinflation. Instead, gold rallied from the October 21, 2022 low of $1,656.43 to approximately $4,613 by April…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Iran-Driven Hot Print, Fed 8-4 Split** The March 2026 CPI report at 3.3% headline YoY is the largest single-month upside surprise since the 2021 to 2022 inflation surge. The driver is narrowly identifiable: gasoline +21.2% MoM tied to Iran-related oil supply disruption (the Strait of Hormuz closure has halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments per IEA).…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the gold-extends-rally case from the gold-stalls case after the March 2026 hot print:

#### What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/cpi-surprises-hot/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?CPI 3.3%, QQQ $657.55** March 2026 CPI came in at 3.3% headline year-over-year per BLS/CNBC (released April 10, 2026), up from 2.4% in February, with core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year. Headline CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, with gasoline up 21.2% month-over-month, the largest monthly gasoline gain since 1967. The Invesco…
**Why Hot CPI Drives QQQ: The Duration Channel** QQQ response to hot CPI surprises runs through three channels with sharply different magnitudes than its response in SPY. The discount-rate channel: when CPI surprises hot, nominal Treasury yields rise as markets reprice the Fed path higher, real yields rise as breakevens stay anchored to Fed credibility, and the…
**Setup 1: September 13, 2022 Hot CPI, NASDAQ -5.16% Single Day** August 2022 CPI released September 13, 2022 came in at 8.3% headline year-over-year vs 8.1% expected, with core CPI at 6.3% vs 6.1% expected and prior 5.9%. The 20 basis point surprise on headline plus the acceleration in core triggered the biggest single-day Nasdaq drop since June 2020. The NASDAQ Composite fell…
**Setup 2: 2022 Calendar Year, QQQ -32.58% Worst Since 2008** QQQ delivered a 2022 calendar total return of -32.58% per Invesco, with peak-to-trough drawdown of approximately -33% per Gale Finance/PortfoliosLab. The 2022 SPY return was -18.1% with peak-to-trough -25.4% per Wikipedia, producing a QQQ-vs-SPY full-year underperformance gap of approximately 14 percentage points and…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Sticky CPI, QQQ Resilience** CPI has remained above the Fed 2% target across all of 2024 to 2026, with March 2026 headline at 3.3% and core at 2.6% per BLS data. Despite the sticky inflation, QQQ has compounded substantial gains: +25.58% in 2024 plus +20.77% in 2025 plus continued rally to record highs through April 2026. The April 24, 2026…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next hot CPI surprise produces the 2022 decisive QQQ underperformance pattern, the 2024 to 2026 muted-impact pattern, or somewhere in between:

### What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?
#### What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-triggers/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Sahm Rule 0.27, SPY at Record Highs** The Sahm Rule reading sits at approximately 0.27 in February 2026 per the FRED real-time series (SAHMREALTIME), with Trading Economics reporting 0.20 for March 2026 based on FRED-sourced data. Both readings are well below the 0.50 trigger threshold. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in February 2026 to 4.3% in…
**Why Sahm Triggers Drive SPY: The Recession Signal Mechanism** The Sahm Rule triggers when the three-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the prior 12 months. The mechanism captures the non-linear nature of unemployment dynamics: small rises in unemployment tend to compound rapidly because unemployed consumers reduce…
**Setup 1: 2007 Sahm Trigger → SPY -57% Over 17 Months** The Sahm Rule triggered in late 2007 as the unemployment rate rose from a 4.4% low in March 2007 to 4.7% by year-end. The S&P 500 had peaked at 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007. The market then fell 56.8% to its closing low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, a 17-month drawdown driven by the housing-credit crisis that the rising…
**Setup 2: 2020 Sahm Trigger → COVID Compressed the Cycle** The Sahm Rule triggered in March/April 2020 as the COVID-related unemployment spike drove the rate from 3.5% in February 2020 to 14.7% by April 2020, a 11.2 percentage point surge that produced the largest Sahm Rule reading in modern history. The S&P 500 fell 33.9% from its February 2020 peak of approximately $339…
**Setup 3: August 2024 Sahm Trigger → False Positive, SPY Recovered** The Sahm Rule triggered on August 2, 2024 with the July 2024 nonfarm payrolls release. The unemployment rate had risen from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3% in July 2024, with the three-month moving average crossing 0.53 above the prior 12-month low. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% on August 2, 2024 (the day of the release), with the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the false-positive scenario from the recession-leading scenario for any future Sahm Rule trigger:

#### What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-triggers/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Sahm Rule 0.27, TLT $85.65** The Sahm Rule reading sits at approximately 0.27 in February 2026 per the FRED real-time series (SAHMREALTIME), with Trading Economics reporting 0.20 for March 2026 based on FRED-sourced data. Both readings are well below the 0.50 trigger threshold. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in February 2026 to 4.3% in…
**Why Sahm Triggers Drive TLT: Flight-to-Quality and Fed Response** TLT response to a Sahm Rule trigger runs through three reinforcing channels. The flight-to-quality channel: investors rotate into Treasuries as the recession signal raises systemic risk perception, compressing nominal yields and lifting Treasury prices. The Fed-easing channel: every prior Sahm trigger has been…
**Setup 1: 2007 Sahm Trigger → TLT +28.3% in 2008** The Sahm Rule triggered in late 2007 as unemployment rose from 4.4% (March 2007) to 4.7% (year-end 2007). The Fed delivered its first cut from the 5.25% target rate in September 2007 and continued cutting through the cycle to 0% to 0.25% by December 2008. TLT delivered approximately +28.3% in calendar 2008 per EBC…
**Setup 2: 2020 Sahm Trigger → TLT $179.70 ATH** The Sahm Rule triggered in March/April 2020 with the COVID-related unemployment spike from 3.5% in February to 14.7% in April. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited QE plus direct Treasury purchases at the long end. TLT reached its…
**Setup 3: August 2024 Sahm Trigger → TLT Modest Response** The Sahm Rule triggered on August 2, 2024 with the July 2024 nonfarm payrolls release. Unemployment had risen from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3% in July 2024. The Fed delivered its first 50bp cut on September 18, 2024, taking the target range to 4.75% to 5.00%. TLT was trading in the range of $93 to $100 through this…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether a future Sahm Rule trigger from current 0.27 levels would produce TLT outperformance similar to 2008 or muted returns similar to 2024:

#### What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-triggers/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Sahm Rule 0.27, Gold $4,613** The Sahm Rule reading sits at approximately 0.27 in February 2026 per the FRED real-time series, with Trading Economics reporting 0.20 for March 2026, both well below the 0.50 trigger threshold. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in February 2026 to 4.3% in March 2026 per BLS data. Gold spot trades at approximately…
**Why Sahm Triggers Drive Gold: Fed-Easing Response Channel** Gold during a Sahm Rule trigger responds primarily through the Fed-easing channel. Every prior Sahm trigger has been followed by Fed rate cuts within months: the 2007 trigger preceded the September 2007 first cut by a few months; the 2020 trigger came alongside emergency rate cuts to zero; the 2024 trigger preceded…
**Setup 1: 2007 Sahm Trigger → Gold +39% Over 24 Months** The Sahm Rule triggered in late 2007 as unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.7%. The Fed delivered its first cut from the 5.25% target rate in September 2007. Gold rose from approximately $745 in October 2007 to roughly $1,096 by year-end 2009, with the 24-month gold return after the 2007 first cut at +39% per USAGOLD…
**Setup 2: 2020 Sahm Trigger → Gold +41% in Five Months** The Sahm Rule triggered in March/April 2020 with the COVID-related unemployment spike. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited QE. Gold rose from $1,471 on March 19, 2020 to $2,069 on August 6, 2020, a 41% rally in approximately five…
**Setup 3: August 2024 Sahm Trigger → Gold $2,400 to $2,790** The Sahm Rule triggered on August 2, 2024 with the July 2024 nonfarm payrolls release at 114k vs 176k expected and unemployment rising to 4.3%. Gold was trading at approximately $2,400-$2,500 at the time and held through the trigger event. The Fed delivered its first cut on September 18, 2024 (a 50bp move taking the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the gold-extends case from the gold-stalls case during a hypothetical Sahm trigger from current 0.27 levels:

#### What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sahm-rule-triggers/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Sahm Rule 0.27, QQQ $657.55** The Sahm Rule reading is approximately 0.27 for February 2026 per the FRED real-time series (SAHMREALTIME), with Trading Economics reporting 0.20 for March 2026, both well below the 0.50 trigger threshold. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in February 2026 to 4.3% in March 2026 per the BLS Employment Situation,…
**Why Sahm Triggers Drive QQQ: Recession Plus Duration** QQQ response to Sahm Rule triggers runs through three reinforcing channels with sharply different magnitudes than its response in SPY. The recession-confirmation channel: a Sahm trigger historically arrives once per cycle as the most reliable single signal that the labor market has decisively turned. NBER weights…
**Setup 1: 2007 Sahm Trigger, NASDAQ Bear Began October 2007 → -54%** The Sahm Rule did not breach its 0.5% threshold until April 2008 per Delphi Advisers analysis, well after the S&P 500 peaked October 9, 2007 and after QQQ entered its bear market. The S&P 500 fell from peak 1,565.15 (October 9, 2007) to closing low 676.53 (March 9, 2009), a 17-month, -57% drawdown per Wikipedia. QQQ…
**Setup 2: 2020 COVID Sahm Trigger, QQQ -27% in 23 Days Then +47% Q2** The April 2020 NFP release of -20.5 million jobs combined with the unemployment rate spiking to 14.7% in April 2020 produced the most explosive Sahm Rule trigger in postwar history per BLS data. QQQ fell approximately -27% peak-to-trough from February 19 to March 23, 2020, in just 23 trading days, the fastest…
**Setup 3: August 2024 Sahm Trigger, NASDAQ -2.4% Then Full Recovery** The Sahm Rule hit 0.53 with the August 2, 2024 NFP release covering July 2024 data per Fortune/Fed analysis, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% per BLS. The NASDAQ Composite dropped -2.4% on August 2, 2024 per CNBC (vs S&P 500 -1.8% and Dow -1.5%), then declined further into the August 5, 2024 yen carry-trade unwind…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next Sahm Rule reading produces the 2007 lagging-confirmation pattern, the 2020 sharp-but-brief drawdown pattern, or the 2024 false-positive recovery pattern:

### What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?
#### What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/hy-spreads-blow-out/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?HY Spread 284bp, SPY at Record Highs** The ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread reads approximately 284 basis points (2.84%) in April 2026, well below the 800 basis point threshold that has historically marked credit-stress recession-warning territory. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026 at $711.69, near record highs. High yield…
**Why HY Spread Blowouts Drive SPY: Credit-to-Equity Transmission** HY spread blowouts pressure SPY through three channels. The corporate-funding channel: rising HY spreads increase the cost of capital for HY-rated firms, which represent approximately 25% of US corporate debt outstanding. Higher funding costs compress earnings via interest expense, and refinancing failures can produce…
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 HY Blowout → SPY -57% Over 17 Months** HY spreads widened from approximately 300 basis points in October 2007 (SPY peak) to over 2,100 basis points by December 2008, the widest reading in modern HY history. The HY default rate surged past 13%, and the HY new-issuance market effectively shut down for several months. The S&P 500 fell 56.8% from its October…
**Setup 2: March 2020 HY Spike → SPY -34% in 32 Days** HY spreads widened from approximately 300 basis points in February 2020 to 1,100 basis points by March 23, 2020, an 800 basis point widening in 23 business days. This was the fastest credit shock in modern history, faster than even the 2008 collapse. The Fed responded with unprecedented action: in addition to cutting…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Tight Spreads Despite Multiple Stressors** HY spreads at 284bp in April 2026 are among the tightest in HY history, well below the post-2010 typical range of 350 to 500bp. This is despite multiple macro stressors active simultaneously: the Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruption, the March 2026 hot CPI print at 3.3% YoY, the FOMC 8-4 split with hawkish…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-macro-stress case from the credit-cycle-turn case for SPY:

#### What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/hy-spreads-blow-out/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?HY Spread 284bp, TLT $85.65** The ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread reads approximately 284 basis points (2.84%) in April 2026, well below the 800 basis point threshold that has historically marked credit-stress recession-warning territory. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed April 29, 2026 at $85.65, with a…
**Why HY Spread Blowouts Drive TLT: Two Regime Outcomes** TLT response to a HY spread blowout is governed by which regime is active. Regime 1 is the traditional flight-to-quality (credit-stress in a disinflation environment). In this regime, investors rotate from HY into Treasuries, the Fed cuts aggressively, and TLT rallies through the bull-steepener channel. The 2007 to…
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 HY Blowout → TLT +33% in 2008** HY spreads widened from approximately 300bp in October 2007 to over 2,100bp by December 2008. The Fed cut from a 5.25% target rate in September 2007 all the way to 0%-0.25% by December 2008, then launched the first quantitative easing program. Long-duration Treasuries delivered exceptional returns across this cycle:…
**Setup 2: March 2020 HY Spike → TLT $179.70 ATH** HY spreads widened from approximately 300bp in February 2020 to 1,100bp by March 23, 2020. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range to 0% to 0.25% in two emergency meetings in March 2020 and launched unlimited QE plus a Treasury-purchases program at the long end. TLT reached its all-time high of $179.70 on March…
**Setup 3: 2022 Stagflation → HY Wider, TLT Lost 31%** The 2022 cycle is the single counterexample to the flight-to-quality pattern. HY spreads widened from approximately 300bp at the start of 2022 to roughly 600bp by mid-October 2022, a 300 basis point widening that signaled credit-cycle stress. TLT did not benefit. From the March 9, 2020 ATH of $179.70 to the October…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether a future HY spread blowout produces Regime 1 (TLT rallies) or Regime 2 (TLT and HY both fall) outcomes:

### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?
#### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply? → Emerging Markets (EEM)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply/eem
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, EEM $63.36** The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) closed at $63.36 on April 24, 2026, with a 52-week range of $43.14 to $65.96. The DXY trades at 98.92 on April 29, 2026, modestly below recent highs. The dollar is range-bound at 99 despite 175 basis points of Fed cuts, the configuration that under the textbook…
**Why the Dollar Drives EM: Three Reinforcing Channels** EM equities during a dollar-strengthening episode respond through three reinforcing channels. The currency channel: EM corporate borrowers with dollar liabilities face rising local-currency debt-servicing costs as the dollar strengthens, which compresses earnings directly. The 2013 to 2014 episode saw average EM…
**Setup 1: 2013 Taper Tantrum → EM Currencies -20% Average** In May 2013, Fed Chair Bernanke testified that the FOMC would consider tapering bond purchases, triggering immediate EM stress. From May 2013 through early 2014, EM asset prices fell sharply, exchange rates depreciated, and capital flows reversed. The Fragile Five (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa) saw…
**Setup 2: 2014-2015 Dollar Surge → EEM -16% in 2015 Alone** The 2014 to 2015 dollar rally combined Fed-tapering momentum with US growth divergence and an oil-price collapse. The dollar gained 12.1% in calendar 2014 and 14.3% against major trading partners June 2014 to January 2015. The euro depreciated 25% against the dollar from March 2014 to March 2015. WTI fell from $107.95…
**Setup 3: 2022 DXY Above 114 → EEM -20.55% NAV Return** The DXY rallied from below 96 at the start of 2022 to above 114 by September 2022, the largest sustained dollar surge since the early 1980s. EEM delivered a NAV total return of minus 20.55% in calendar 2022 per iShares performance data, driven by the Fed's 525 basis point hiking cycle and the corresponding…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the EEM-resilient case from the EEM-cascade case during a potential dollar surge:

#### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, Gold $4,613** The DXY trades at 98.92 on April 29, 2026, up from 98.60 the prior day. The broader Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) reads 118.86 in April 2026 (Index basis: January 2006 equals 100). Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce. The Fed has cut 175 basis points from the 5.25% to 5.50% peak (July…
**Why the Dollar Drives Gold: Currency Denominator Plus Reserve Substitution** Gold during a dollar-strengthening episode responds through two channels. The mechanical channel: gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers (in their home currency) and reduces overseas demand. From 2010 to 2022, the DXY-gold correlation ran around minus 0.5 to minus…
**Setup 1: 2014-2015 Dollar Rally → Gold -25% to $1,045** The dollar index gained 12.1% in calendar 2014 and rose 14.3% against major trading partners between June 2014 and January 2015 per BLS data. The euro depreciated approximately 25% against the dollar from March 2014 to March 2015. The dollar surge was driven by US growth diverging from Europe (Q2 2014 GDP +4.6%, Q3…
**Setup 2: 2022 DXY Above 114 → Gold Held the $1,656 Low** The DXY rallied from below 96 at the start of 2022 to above 114 by September 2022, the largest sustained dollar-strengthening episode since the early 1980s. The driver was the Fed's 525 basis point hiking cycle in 2022 to 2023, the most aggressive in 40 years, while other central banks moved more slowly. Gold under…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Dollar Range-Bound at 99 Despite 175bp of Cuts** The Fed has cut 175 basis points since September 18, 2024. Under the textbook rate-differential model, this should have weakened the dollar by 5% to 10%. In practice, DXY trades at 98.92 in late April 2026, modestly below the 2024 highs but well above what the rate-differential model would predict. The dollar has…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would indicate that a sharp dollar rally is starting:

#### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, SPY $711.69** The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.92 on April 29, 2026 per TradingEconomics, modestly weaker than the 99.5 level prevailing through most of Q1 2026 and approximately 12% below the October 2022 peak of 113. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026 at $711.69, near record highs. The dollar has weakened…
**Why Dollar Strength Pressures SPY: The Foreign-Revenue Channel** Approximately 41% of S&P 500 revenue is generated outside the US per FactSet data, making aggregate corporate earnings materially exposed to dollar moves. The transmission runs through three channels with different magnitudes and lags. The translation channel: foreign-currency revenues translate into fewer dollars…
**Setup 1: 2014-2015 Dollar Surge → SPY +13.7% Then +1.4%** The dollar surged 12.1% in calendar 2014 per Yahoo Finance/Wikipedia DXY data and an additional 14.3% versus major trading partners from June 2014 to January 2015 per BLS Beyond the Numbers analysis. The euro depreciated 25% versus USD from March 2014 to March 2015 per Federal Reserve Notes. SPY delivered a +13.7%…
**Setup 2: 2022 Dollar Surge → SPY -18.1% (But Inflation, Not Dollar)** The dollar surged from approximately DXY 95 at the start of 2022 to peak DXY 113 by October 2022, a 19% rally over nine months and the strongest dollar move since the 2014 to 2015 cycle. SPY fell 18.1% in calendar 2022 per multiple sources, with the peak-to-trough drawdown reaching 25% from the January 2022 record…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Dollar Range → SPY Continued Compounding** The dollar peaked at DXY 113 in October 2022 and has weakened persistently across 2023 to 2026 to current 98.92, a 12% cumulative decline over three and a half years. Across this same window SPY total return has compounded substantially: +24.89% in 2024, +17.72% in 2025 per SlickCharts data, with continued strength…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next leg of dollar movement adds to or subtracts from SPY total returns:

#### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, BTC ~$77,000** The DXY trades at 98.92 on April 29, 2026, with Bitcoin at approximately $77,160. The dollar is range-bound at 99 despite 175 basis points of Fed cuts. BTC is well below its all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025, and has fallen back into the $75,000 to $80,000 range through early 2026. The…
**Why the Dollar Drives Bitcoin: Liquidity Plus Risk-Off** Bitcoin during a dollar-strengthening episode responds through two channels. The liquidity channel: a sharp dollar rally typically signals tightening global financial conditions, which historically reduces the marginal capital available for risk-asset accumulation including BTC. The 2022 dollar surge coincided with…
**Setup 1: 2014-2015 Dollar Surge → BTC Bear Market Independent of Macro** The 2014 to 2015 dollar rally (DXY +12.1% in calendar 2014, +14.3% vs major trading partners through January 2015) coincided with bitcoin's 2014 to 2015 bear market: BTC fell from approximately $1,100 in December 2013 to roughly $200 by January 2015. The drivers were retail-cycle exhaustion, the Mt. Gox collapse in…
**Setup 2: 2022 DXY Above 114 → BTC -77% to $15,480** The DXY rallied from below 96 at the start of 2022 to above 114 by September 2022, the largest sustained dollar surge since the early 1980s. BTC fell from $68,789 on November 10, 2021 to $15,480 on November 22, 2022, a -77% drawdown that bottomed at the FTX collapse. The forced-deleveraging cascades (Terra/Luna, Three…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Cycle → ETF Bid Has Not Eliminated Macro Sensitivity** The spot ETF launch on January 11, 2024 delivered $37 billion of cumulative net inflows in the first year, with BlackRock's IBIT at $52.5 billion in AUM at the one-year mark and $63 billion by April 2026. The institutional channel has been the structural driver of the 2024 to 2026 leg, with BTC reaching a new ATH at…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the cascade case from the resilience case for BTC during a dollar surge:

#### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply? → WTI Crude Oil
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply/wti
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, WTI $103** WTI crude oil futures rose above $103 per barrel on April 29, 2026, gaining for the third straight session. The April 2026 trading range has been approximately $80.56 to $117.63, with an average price near $98 across the month. The DXY trades at 98.92 on April 29, 2026, modestly below recent highs. Geopolitical…
**Why the Dollar Drives Oil: Three Channels** Oil during a dollar-strengthening episode responds through three channels. The denominator channel: WTI is dollar-priced, so a 10% dollar rally mechanically reduces oil affordability for non-dollar buyers by approximately 10%. Empirically the pass-through is closer to 0.6 to 0.8 (every 10% DXY move corresponds to a 6%…
**Setup 1: 2014-2015 Dollar Surge → WTI -59% in Seven Months** WTI peaked at $107.95 on June 20, 2014. The dollar began rallying in July 2014 as US growth accelerated (Q2 2014 GDP +4.6%, Q3 +5.0%) and the ECB cut toward zero. By November 2014 the DXY was up 8% from the summer level; OPEC announced on November 27, 2014 that it would not cut production to defend price. WTI then…
**Setup 2: 2022 Dollar Above 114 → WTI Range-Bound** The DXY rallied above 114 in September 2022 during the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle in 40 years. Under the 2014 to 2015 playbook, WTI should have collapsed alongside the dollar surge. Instead WTI traded in a $76 to $122 range across 2022, with the March 2022 peak at $123.70 driven by the immediate Russia-Ukraine…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Iran Supply Premium Plus Range-Bound Dollar** WTI at $103 in late April 2026 reflects approximately $20 to $25 of Iran-related supply premium on top of a baseline near $80. The Strait of Hormuz closure has halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments per IEA, which the agency has called the largest supply shock on record. The dollar at DXY 98.92 has been…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the WTI-collapses case from the WTI-elevated-supply-premium case:

#### What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-strengthens-sharply/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, QQQ $657.55** The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.92 on April 29, 2026 per TradingEconomics, modestly weaker than the 99.5 level that prevailed through most of Q1 2026 and approximately 12% below the October 2022 peak of 113. The dollar declined approximately 10.1% in calendar 2025 per Voronoi/TradingView, the worst year since…
**Why Dollar Strength Pressures QQQ: Three Channels Amplified** QQQ response to dollar strength runs through the same three channels as SPY but with structurally larger magnitudes due to higher international exposure. The translation channel: with 49% of Nasdaq-100 revenue from outside the US per Nasdaq Global Indexes/FactSet versus 42% for SPY, the same 10% dollar move produces…
**Setup 1: 2014-2015 Dollar Surge → QQQ +19.18% Then +9.45%** The dollar surged 12.1% in calendar 2014 per Yahoo Finance/Wikipedia DXY data and an additional 9.3% in calendar 2015 per Macrotrends, with total cumulative DXY appreciation of approximately 22% across the two-year window. The euro depreciated 25% versus USD from March 2014 to March 2015 per Federal Reserve Notes. QQQ…
**Setup 2: 2022 Dollar Surge → QQQ -32.58% Calendar Year** The dollar surged from approximately DXY 95 at the start of 2022 to peak DXY 114.78 on September 27, 2022 per Yahoo Finance/Investing.com, a 19% rally over nine months and the strongest dollar move since the 2014 to 2015 cycle. DXY ended calendar 2022 at 103.52 (+8.2% calendar return) after the Q4 reversal. QQQ…
**Setup 3: 2017 Dollar Weakness → QQQ +32.7% (The Inverse Case)** DXY fell -9.9% in calendar 2017 per Wikipedia/Quartz, the worst year for the dollar in more than a decade at the time. QQQ delivered +32.7% calendar 2017 per TradeThatSwing/multiple, alongside SPY +21.83% per SlickCharts. The dollar weakness coincided with synchronized global growth recovery, accelerating EM equity…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next leg of dollar movement adds to or subtracts from QQQ total returns:

### What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?
#### What Happens When Oil Prices Spike? → Energy (XLE)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-price-spikes/xle
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?WTI $103, XLE $57.71** The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) closed April 28, 2026 at $57.71, with a 52-week range of $39.75 to $63.46 and a dividend yield of 2.71%. WTI crude trades above $103 per barrel on April 29, 2026. XLE is up approximately 22% year-to-date through April 2026 amid the Iran-related oil rally and sector rotation from…
**Why Oil Spikes Drive XLE: Direct Earnings Pass-Through** XLE during an oil spike responds through three reinforcing channels. The earnings-pass-through channel: integrated oil and gas company net income scales approximately linearly with crude prices for upstream operations. XOM's exploration and production segment earnings have historically delivered roughly $1 to $2…
**Setup 1: 2007-2008 Oil Spike → XLE Peaked Then Crashed** WTI rose from approximately $50 in early 2007 to $147 by July 11, 2008, a 194% surge over 18 months. XLE rose from approximately $55 in early 2007 to roughly $90 by July 2008, a 64% gain that captured the sector's direct exposure to the oil spike. Energy-sector earnings expanded substantially through this period: XOM…
**Setup 2: 2022 Energy Bull → XLE +64% in One Year** XLE delivered a calendar 2022 return of 64.17% per Yahoo Finance data, the strongest single-year performance in the ETF's history. The Russia-Ukraine war drove WTI from approximately $76 at the start of 2022 to $123 in March 2022, with average WTI for 2022 near $95. Energy-sector earnings expanded dramatically: XOM…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Iran-Driven Spike, XLE Catching the Move** XLE at $57.71 in late April 2026 is up roughly 22% year-to-date and approximately 45% above its 52-week low of $39.75. The ETF's 52-week high of $63.46 was reached during the peak of the Iran-driven oil rally in early 2026. Top holdings have benefited: XOM and CVX both reported strong Q1 2026 earnings beats driven by…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals dominate the XLE setup over the next 12 months:

#### What Happens When Oil Prices Spike? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-price-spikes/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?WTI $103, SPY at Record Highs** WTI crude trades above $103 per barrel on April 29, 2026, gaining for the third straight session. The April 2026 monthly range has been approximately $80.56 to $117.63, with an average price near $98 across the month. The Iran-related Strait of Hormuz closure has halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments per IEA,…
**Why Oil Spikes Drive SPY: Margin Compression Plus Demand Destruction** Oil during a spike pressures SPY through three channels. The corporate-margin channel: oil and energy-related inputs flow through to manufacturer COGS, transportation costs, and consumer-goods pricing. A sustained $30 oil-price increase historically compresses non-energy S&P 500 margins by 30 to 60 basis points over…
**Setup 1: 1973 OPEC Embargo → S&P 500 -48% Bear Market** The 1973 OPEC embargo produced the canonical oil shock. Crude oil rose from roughly $3 per barrel to approximately $12 per barrel in four months, a 300% surge that the global economy could not absorb. The S&P 500 entered a 21-month bear market with a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 48%, the worst drawdown…
**Setup 2: 2008 Oil Peak $147 → Coincided with Financial Crisis** WTI peaked at $147 per barrel on July 11, 2008, having approximately tripled from the $50 level in early 2007. The S&P 500 had already begun declining from its October 9, 2007 peak of 1,565.15, and the oil spike accelerated the deterioration. The S&P 500 ultimately fell roughly 57% to its closing low of 676.53 on…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Iran Supply Shock, Net-Exporter Cushion** The April 2026 oil-price configuration is unique in modern history: WTI at $103 is elevated by approximately $20 to $25 of Iran-related supply premium on top of a baseline near $80, but the US is now a net energy exporter. This was not the case in 1973 or 2008. Net energy export status means rising oil prices produce…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the SPY-extends case from the SPY-corrects case during this oil-spike scenario:

#### What Happens When Oil Prices Spike? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-price-spikes/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?WTI $103, Gold $4,613** WTI crude trades above $103 per barrel on April 29, 2026, with the April monthly range of $80.56 to $117.63 and an average near $98. The Iran-related Strait of Hormuz closure has halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments per IEA. Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce. The 10-year breakeven inflation…
**Why Oil Spikes Drive Gold: Inflation, Uncertainty, Dollar Crosscurrents** Gold during an oil spike responds through three reinforcing channels. The inflation-breakeven channel: oil flows through to headline CPI within one to two months (the March 2026 CPI surge of 3.3% YoY came directly from gasoline +21.2% MoM). Hot CPI lifts inflation breakevens, which compresses real yields if nominal…
**Setup 1: 1973 OPEC Embargo → Gold Began Multi-Year Bull** Crude oil rose from roughly $3 per barrel to approximately $12 in four months following the October 1973 OPEC embargo, a 300% surge. Gold during this period became the canonical inflation hedge of the 1970s. From the August 1971 abandonment of Bretton Woods (gold trading near $35/oz) through the January 1980 peak near…
**Setup 2: 2007-2008 Oil Peak → Gold Held Through Crisis** WTI peaked at $147 on July 11, 2008, having approximately tripled from the early 2007 baseline. Gold reached approximately $1,033 in March 2008, approximately 25% above its early-2007 starting level. The 2008 financial crisis then arrived, and gold sold off temporarily during the September 2008 deleveraging cascade…
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 Russia/Iran Cycle → Gold Tripled** The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war drove WTI to $123 in March 2022. Gold simultaneously reached $2,069 in March 2022, the prior all-time high at that point. The 2022 to 2026 cycle then combined three reinforcing oil-related drivers: the persistent Russia-Ukraine supply premium through 2022 to 2024, the post-sanctions reserve…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals dominate the gold-versus-oil-spike setup over the next six months:

#### What Happens When Oil Prices Spike? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/oil-price-spikes/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?WTI $103, QQQ $657.55** WTI crude rose above $103 per barrel on April 29, 2026 per TradingEconomics/Angle360, with the April 2026 month range running $80.56 to $117.63. The current Iran-related geopolitical premium has kept oil elevated above the $80 level that prevailed across most of 2024 to 2025. The Invesco QQQ Trust closed April 28,…
**Why Oil Spikes Drive QQQ: Three Channels in Tension** QQQ response to oil spikes runs through three channels that sometimes reinforce and sometimes offset each other. The direct cost channel: QQQ technology holdings have low direct oil intensity compared to industrials, transports, and consumer discretionary. Software, cloud, and semiconductor businesses use modest…
**Setup 1: 1973 Oil Crisis, Oil $3 to $12 (+300%), NASDAQ -60%** The October 1973 OPEC embargo drove crude oil from approximately $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel within 4 months per Wikipedia and Federal Reserve History, a 300% spike. US CPI peaked at approximately 11% in 1974 per Wikipedia, US GDP contracted 0.5% in calendar 1974 per Wikipedia, and unemployment hit 9% by May 1975.…
**Setup 2: 2007-2008 Oil $147 Peak, QQQ -53.5% in 2008 GFC** WTI crude reached its all-time record close of $147 per barrel on July 11, 2008 per multiple sources, then collapsed to $32 per barrel by December 2008 (-78% peak-to-trough per calculation). The 2007 to 2009 financial crisis saw QQQ -53.5% peak-to-trough per Advisor Perspectives/Mamaysky, with the NASDAQ-100 calendar…
**Setup 3: February 2022 Russia Invasion, WTI $130, QQQ Resilience** Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, sending WTI crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, with Brent crude reaching $105.79 intraday per CNBC/NPR. WTI subsequently peaked near $130 per barrel on March 8, 2022 on Russia oil import ban concerns. On the invasion day itself, the NASDAQ Composite…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the current oil setup with WTI at $103 produces material QQQ damage or remains a muted regional impact:

### What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes?
#### What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/housing-market-crashes/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Case-Shiller +0.7% YoY, SPY $711.69** The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index posted a +0.7% annual gain for February 2026 per the April 28, 2026 release, down from +0.8% the prior month and the ninth consecutive month in which inflation outpaced national home price appreciation. The 20-City Composite gained +0.9% YoY (down -0.1% MoM…
**Why Housing Crashes Drive SPY: Three Reinforcing Channels** SPY response to housing crashes runs through three channels with different magnitudes and lags. The wealth-effect channel: home equity is the largest household asset for the median American household. Declining home values reduce household net worth, which compresses consumer spending via the wealth-effect coefficient…
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 Subprime Crisis, Case-Shiller -27%, S&P 500 -57%** The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index peaked in Q1 2006 at 198.01 and bottomed at 113.89 in Q1 2012 per Wikipedia/S&P data, an approximately -27% decline on the seasonally adjusted national index (variants -42% on raw NSA). By September 2008, average US housing prices had already declined more than 20% from the…
**Setup 2: 1990 S&L Crisis, Regional Housing Stress, S&P 500 -20%** The Savings and Loan crisis of 1986 to 1995 produced regional housing stress concentrated in Texas, the Northeast, and California, but did not produce a national Case-Shiller decline equivalent to 2007 to 2012. Approximately 1,043 of 3,234 S&L institutions failed across the cycle, with total cleanup cost estimated at…
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 Mortgage-Rate Reset, Prices Flat, SPY +52%** The current cycle has been an unusual one. The Fed hiking from 0.25% to 5.50% across 2022 to 2023 drove the 30-year mortgage rate from approximately 3% to over 7% within 18 months, the largest rate shock in housing history. Home transaction volumes collapsed: existing home sales fell to multi-decade lows (3.98 million…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the slow-grind housing weakness escalates to the historical crash patterns or remains contained to transaction volume:

### What Happens When Unemployment Rises?
#### What Happens When Unemployment Rises? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/unemployment-rises/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Unemployment 4.3%, SPY $711.69** The US unemployment rate held at 4.3% in March 2026 per the BLS Employment Situation report released April 3, 2026, edging down from 4.4% in February 2026. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs in March, with gains concentrated in health care, construction, and transportation. The April 2026 jobs report releases May 8,…
**Why Rising Unemployment Drives SPY: The Consumption Feedback Loop** SPY response to rising unemployment runs through three reinforcing channels with different magnitudes. The consumption channel: consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of US GDP per BEA data. Job losses immediately cut spending among the affected, while the fear of job loss raises precautionary savings among…
**Setup 1: 1973-1975 Stagflation, Unemployment 4.9% to 9.0%, S&P 500 -48%** Unemployment rose from a 1973 annual average of 4.9% to a cycle peak of 9.0% in May 1975, a 410 basis point rise across 16 months. The S&P 500 fell from approximately 120 in January 1973 to roughly 62 in October 1974, a -48% drawdown across the bear market that defined the stagflation era. The OPEC oil embargo of…
**Setup 2: 2008-2009 Great Recession, Unemployment 5% to 10%, S&P 500 -57%** Unemployment rose from approximately 5.0% in early 2008 to a cycle peak of 10.0% in October 2009, a 500 basis point rise across approximately 21 months. Nearly 9 million jobs were lost across 2008 and 2009 per Federal Reserve data, approximately 6% of the workforce. The S&P 500 fell from its October 9, 2007 peak of…
**Setup 3: 2020 COVID, Unemployment 3.5% to 14.7%, S&P 500 -33.9%** Unemployment quadrupled from 3.5% in February 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020, the largest single-month rise in BLS history. Per Congress.gov R46554, the misclassification-adjusted figure was closer to 19.5%. The S&P 500 fell from 3,386.15 on February 19, 2020 to 2,237.40 on March 23, 2020, a -33.9% peak-to-trough…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether a future unemployment rise from current 4.3% would produce the 1973/2008 deep-drawdown pattern or the 2020 V-recovery pattern:

### What Happens When Gold Surges?
#### What Happens When Gold Surges? → Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-surges/dtwexbgs
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Gold $4,613, DTWEXBGS 118.86** Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce on April 29, 2026, having roughly tripled from the October 2022 low of $1,656.43. The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) reads 118.86 in April 2026 (Index basis: January 2006 = 100), and the narrower DXY trades at 98.92 the same day. The dollar has weakened…
**Why Gold Surges Pressure the Dollar: Reserve Substitution Channel** Gold surges pressure the dollar primarily through the reserve-substitution channel. Sovereign reserve managers facing constraints on Treasury holdings (post-Russia-sanctions concerns, dollar-weaponization risk, fiscal-deficit unsustainability) rebalance into gold. The flow is two-sided: gold demand rises while…
**Setup 1: 2002-2008 Gold Bull → DXY Fell 40%** Gold rose from approximately $278/oz in early 2002 to $1,033/oz in March 2008, a roughly 270% gain over six years. The DXY fell from approximately 120 in early 2002 to 70.698 on March 16, 2008 (the all-time DXY low), a roughly 40% decline across the same window. The 2002 to 2008 cycle is the canonical case for the…
**Setup 2: 2020-2021 Pandemic → Both Decoupled Briefly** The COVID-era response produced an early example of gold-versus-dollar decoupling. The DXY spiked above 103 in March 2020 as global investors fled to dollar liquidity, then declined to approximately 90 by January 2021 as the Fed's unlimited QE expanded the balance sheet. Gold rallied from $1,471 in March 2020 to…
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 Cycle → Gold Tripled, DXY Range-Bound** The 2022 to 2026 cycle has delivered the strongest break of the textbook gold-versus-DXY inverse relationship in modern history. Gold tripled from $1,656 to $4,613 across this window. DXY traded between 96 and 114, with the September 2022 peak above 114 coinciding with the October 2022 gold low and the subsequent DXY…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals dominate the gold-versus-dollar setup over the next 12 months:

#### What Happens When Gold Surges? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gold-surges/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Gold $4,613, BTC $77,160, Ratio 16.3** Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce on April 29, 2026 and Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 the same day. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio sits at approximately 16.3 ounces of gold per bitcoin. Gold has rallied from its October 21, 2022 low of $1,656.43 to current levels, roughly tripling across that…
**Why Gold Surges Pressure Bitcoin: The Same-Trade Test** Gold and bitcoin are often described as competing stores-of-value, with the implicit assumption that capital allocation rotates between them based on relative attractiveness. The empirical record from 2020 to 2024 supported this framing: gold and bitcoin tracked each other closely during periods of rising debasement…
**Setup 1: 2010-2011 Gold Surge → BTC Pre-Macro** Gold rallied from approximately $1,100/oz at the start of 2010 to $1,920/oz in September 2011, a 75% gain over 21 months driven by post-GFC monetary stimulus, sovereign debt fears (Greek crisis, Italian yields), and US debt-ceiling drama (August 2011 S&P downgrade). Bitcoin during this period traded between $0 and…
**Setup 2: 2020-2021 Pandemic → Both Surged Together** The COVID-era response produced the first cycle in which gold and bitcoin both surged simultaneously. Gold rose from $1,471 on March 19, 2020 to $2,069 on August 6, 2020, a 41% rally in five months. Bitcoin rose from $3,949 on March 13, 2020 to $68,789 by November 10, 2021, a 17x rally over 20 months. The 2020 to 2021…
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 Cycle → Gold Tripled, BTC Faded From Peak** The 2022 to 2026 cycle decisively broke the "BTC equals gold-with-leverage" thesis. From the October 22, 2022 gold low of $1,656.43 to approximately $4,613 by April 2026, gold has rallied roughly 178% (close to a triple). From the November 22, 2022 BTC low of $15,480 to the October 6, 2025 ATH of $126,198, BTC…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the BTC-recovers case from the BTC-continues-to-lose-vs-gold case during continued gold strength:

### What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?
#### What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-crashes/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC $77,160, SPY $711** Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on April 29, 2026, well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. The drawdown from the October 2025 peak is approximately 39%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026 at $711.69, near record highs. Total US spot bitcoin ETF AUM exceeds $102…
**Why Bitcoin Crashes Matter for SPY: The Risk-Sentiment Channel** BTC crashes affect SPY through three channels of varying magnitude. The direct-wealth-effect channel is small: BTC market cap of approximately $1.5 trillion at current levels is roughly 3% of US household financial assets, and BTC is concentrated in fewer, more risk-tolerant holders than equities. A 50% BTC drawdown…
**Setup 1: 2018 BTC Crash → SPY Range-Bound** BTC peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017 and fell to approximately $3,250 by December 2018, an 86.3% drawdown over 12 months and a calendar-year decline of 73%. The 2018 BTC crash was contemporaneous with two SPY corrections (February 2018, October-December 2018) but the relationship was modest: SPY fell…
**Setup 2: 2022 BTC Crash → SPY -25% in Same Window** BTC fell from $68,789 on November 10, 2021 to $15,480 on November 22, 2022, a 76.9% drawdown over 12 months with a calendar-2022 return of minus 64.3%. The S&P 500 fell 25.4% from its January 2022 peak to October 2022 trough during the same window. The two markets fell together but the rolling 50-day BTC-SPY…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Post-ETF Era, Higher Correlation** The post-January 2024 ETF launch has driven the rolling BTC-SPY correlation to a sustained level around 0.5, the highest in BTC's history. Total US spot bitcoin ETF AUM at $102 billion in April 2026 has institutionalized BTC ownership in a way that did not exist in 2018 or 2022. The April 2026 setup has BTC already…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-BTC-decline case from the cascade case for SPY:

#### What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-crashes/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC $76K, QQQ $657.55** Bitcoin trades at approximately $76,316 on April 30, 2026 per Fortune, well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. The drawdown from the October 2025 peak is approximately -40%. The Invesco QQQ Trust closed April 28, 2026 at $657.55 per Yahoo Finance/Stockanalysis, with the 52-week high of…
**Why Bitcoin Crashes Drive QQQ: Risk-Sentiment, Beta, Liquidity** QQQ response to BTC crashes runs through three channels with different magnitudes. The risk-sentiment channel: BTC functions as a high-beta indicator of broader risk appetite, with daily standard deviation roughly 3 to 5 times higher than QQQ per Stoic.ai analysis. Sustained BTC weakness signals deteriorating risk…
**Setup 1: 2017-2018 BTC Crash, BTC -84%, QQQ +32.66% then -0.12%** Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017 per CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, then fell to approximately $3,191 by mid-December 2018, an -84% peak-to-trough drawdown across 12 months. Calendar 2018 BTC return was -73% per CoinDesk, the worst calendar year on record at the time. QQQ delivered +32.66% in calendar…
**Setup 2: 2021-2022 BTC Crash, BTC -77.5%, QQQ -32.58% Calendar 2022** Bitcoin fell from $68,789 on November 10, 2021 per comparison-pairs.ts to $15,480 on November 22, 2022 per CNBC, a -77.5% drawdown across 12 months. The collapse included multiple cascading events: May 2021 first leg from $64,800 to $30,000 (-54%) on Tesla/China announcements, the November 2021 ATH at $68,789, the May…
**Setup 3: 2020 COVID Crash, BTC -50% in Two Days, QQQ -27% in 23 Days** Bitcoin lost approximately 50% from $9,100 on March 7, 2020 to $3,800 by March 13, 2020 per CNBC/Binance, a -58% drawdown in just 6 days during the COVID flight-to-cash episode (one of the fastest BTC crashes on record). QQQ fell -27% peak-to-trough from February 19 to March 23, 2020 across 23 trading days during the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-BTC-decline case from the cascade-to-QQQ case in the current setup with BTC -40% from ATH and QQQ near record highs:

#### What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-crashes/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC $77,160, Gold $4,613** Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on April 29, 2026, well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio sits at approximately 16.3 ounces of gold per bitcoin, near the lower edge of its 12-year trading range. Gold…
**Why Bitcoin Crashes Matter for Gold: Substitute, Complement, or Independent** Gold during a bitcoin crash can produce three distinct outcomes depending on the macro driver. Outcome 1: Substitute relationship (bitcoin investors rotate to gold). This pattern would have BTC-versus-gold capital flow shifting to gold during BTC crashes, supporting gold prices even when broader macro factors are…
**Setup 1: 2018 BTC -86% → Gold Range-Bound** BTC peaked at $19,783 on December 17, 2017 and fell to approximately $3,250 by December 2018, an 86.3% drawdown. Gold during this 12-month period was range-bound, trading between approximately $1,200 and $1,365. Gold delivered a calendar 2018 NAV total return of approximately minus 1.5% per typical gold ETF data,…
**Setup 2: 2022 BTC -77% → Gold Held $1,656 Despite Equity Bear** BTC fell from $68,789 on November 10, 2021 to $15,480 on November 22, 2022, a 76.9% drawdown. Gold during this window was range-bound between $1,656 (October 21, 2022 low) and approximately $1,900 (peaks around the Russia-Ukraine outbreak). Gold neither rallied as a BTC-substitute nor declined catastrophically…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 → Gold Tripled While BTC Faded** The 2024 to 2026 cycle has produced the strongest evidence of Outcome 3 (independent gold rally) in modern history. From the October 2022 gold low of $1,656.43 to approximately $4,613 by April 2026, gold has roughly tripled. From the November 2022 BTC low of $15,480 to the October 6, 2025 ATH of $126,198, BTC…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the gold-substitute case from the gold-independent case during continued BTC weakness:

### What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?
#### What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/treasury-auction-fails/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Auctions Functional, SPY $711.69** The 30-year Treasury bond was auctioned April 9, 2026 with settlement April 15, 2026 per TreasuryDirect/Forex Factory, providing baseline reading for the current cycle. The US Treasury is expected to issue approximately $31 trillion in marketable debt in fiscal year 2026 per CBO 2026 projections, up from approximately…
**Why Weak Treasury Auctions Drive SPY: Yields, Multiples, Confidence** SPY response to weak Treasury auctions runs through three reinforcing channels. The yield channel: weak auctions directly cause Treasury prices to drop and yields to rise as the market demands higher compensation for absorbing supply. A serious demand problem could send the 10Y yield 50-100 basis points higher in…
**Setup 1: October 2023 30-Year Auction Tail 5.3bp, 10Y Above 5%, SPY -7%** The October 2023 30-year Treasury auction sold $24 billion at a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.24x per Hamilton Capital/multiple sources, well below the 6-auction average of 2.44x. The auction recorded a 5.3 basis point tail (when-issued price 4.716% versus auction settling at 4.769%), one of the worst results in years…
**Setup 2: September 2022 UK Gilt Crisis Template, BoE Intervention, SPY Recovered** The UK gilt crisis was triggered by Liz Truss' government unfunded mini-budget on September 23, 2022 per Bank of England/multiple sources. UK 30-year gilt yields spiked 150 basis points in days, the largest move since the 1970s, forcing pension funds operating Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) strategies to face…
**Setup 3: 2024 7-Year Auction Concerns, SPY Continued Rally** The February 2024 7-year Treasury auction recorded a 0.8 basis point tail, slightly above the 0.3bp average per TheStreet/TreasuryDirect, with bid-to-cover and dealer takedown modestly worse than average. Subsequent 2024 7-year auctions had tails generally consistent with average levels. Despite occasional…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-auction-volatility case from the genuine-auction-failure case for SPY in current positioning at $711.69 with $31 trillion projected FY 2026 Treasury issuance:

### What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?
#### What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-pauses-rate-hikes/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Fed at 3.50-3.75%, SPY $711.69** The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at the 3.50% to 3.75% target range at its April 28-29, 2026 meeting, the third consecutive hold. The vote split 8-4, the most divided FOMC vote since October 1992 per Reuters/Investing.com. Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25 basis point cut;…
**Why Fed Pauses Drive SPY: Discount Rate, Credit, Earnings** SPY response to Fed pauses runs through three reinforcing channels. The discount-rate channel: equity multiples are mathematically sensitive to expected future short rates because long-duration cash flows are discounted at rates anchored partly to the federal funds path. When the Fed pauses, the front end of the rate…
**Setup 1: 2006 Pause at 5.25%, SPY +5.49% in 2007 Then -38% in 2008** The Fed delivered its final hike of the 2004-2006 cycle on June 29, 2006, taking the federal funds rate to 5.25% per Federal Reserve records. The pause lasted 446 days, the longest in modern market history per StreetLight Blog, before the first cut on September 18, 2007 (50bp to 4.75%). SPY delivered +5.49% calendar…
**Setup 2: December 2018 Pause at 2.50%, SPY +31.22% in 2019** The Fed delivered its final hike of the 2015-2018 cycle on December 19, 2018, taking the federal funds rate to 2.25-2.50%. The S&P 500 had fallen -19.8% peak-to-trough from September 20 to December 24, 2018 in the Q4 selloff, falling just shy of the technical bear-market threshold per Wikipedia/Syntax data. SPY…
**Setup 3: July 2023 Pause at 5.25-5.50%, SPY +24.89% in 2024** The Fed delivered its final hike of the 2022-2023 cycle on July 26, 2023, taking the federal funds rate to 5.25-5.50% per Federal Reserve records. The pause lasted 420 days (~14 months) before the first cut on September 18, 2024 (50bp to 4.75-5.00%) per JPMorgan/Federal Reserve data. SPY delivered +26.5% calendar 2023…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the favorable post-pause path (2019/2024 pattern) from the eventual bear-market path (2007/2008 pattern) in current SPY positioning at $711.69:

### What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?
#### What Happens When the Dollar Crashes? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/dollar-crashes/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, SPY $711.69** The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.92 on April 29, 2026 per TradingEconomics, approximately 12% below the October 2022 peak of 113 and weakening persistently across 2025 (the dollar declined 9.4% in calendar 2025 per TradingView/KuCoin, the worst year since 2017). The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026…
**Why Dollar Crashes Drive SPY: The Foreign-Revenue Tailwind** SPY response to dollar weakness runs through three channels with different magnitudes and lags. The translation channel: foreign-currency revenues translate into more dollars when the dollar weakens. The rule-of-thumb beta per JPMorgan and Goldman analysis is approximately +0.5 to +0.7 percentage points of S&P 500 EPS…
**Setup 1: 2002-2008 Dollar Crash, DXY 120 to 70.7, S&P 500 +104%** The dollar peaked near DXY 120 in February 2002 per Wikipedia/Macrotrends data and bottomed at 70.698 on March 16, 2008 per Wikipedia/PIMCO, a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 41% across six years. The S&P 500 simultaneously rallied from a closing low of 768.83 on October 10, 2002 per Wikipedia closing…
**Setup 2: 2017 Dollar Decline, DXY -9.9%, SPY +21.83%** The dollar declined 9.9% in calendar 2017 per Wikipedia/Quartz analysis, the worst calendar year for DXY in more than a decade at the time, even as the Fed delivered three rate hikes (March, June, December 2017) totaling 75 basis points. The S&P 500 ETF returned 21.83% in calendar 2017 per SlickCharts, with…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Dollar Range, DXY 113 to 98.92, SPY +47%** The dollar peaked at DXY 113 in October 2022 and has weakened persistently across 2023 to 2026 to current 98.92, a 12% cumulative decline over three and a half years. The 2025 calendar decline alone was 9.4% per TradingView/KuCoin, the worst since 2017. Across this same window SPY total return has compounded…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next leg of dollar weakness adds to or subtracts from SPY total returns:

### What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%?
#### What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sp500-drops-20-percent/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?SPY $711, TLT $85.65** The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026 at $711.69, near record highs. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed April 29, 2026 at $85.65, with a 30-day SEC yield of 4.88% and a 52-week range of $83.91 to $92.05. A 20% SPY drawdown from current levels would take the index to approximately $570, last…
**Why a 20% SPY Drop Matters for TLT: The Two Bear-Market Regimes** TLT response to a 20%-plus S&P 500 drawdown is governed by which regime is active. Regime 1 is the traditional bear market (recession-driven equity decline plus disinflation). In this regime, the Fed cuts aggressively, real yields fall, and TLT rallies through the bull-steepener channel. The 2000 to 2002 dot-com bear…
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 Bear → TLT Rallied Through the Crisis** The S&P 500 fell from its October 9, 2007 peak of 1,565.15 to its closing low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, a 56.8% drawdown over approximately 17 months. The Fed cut from a 5.25% target rate in September 2007 all the way to 0%-0.25% by December 2008, then launched the first quantitative easing program. The 10-year…
**Setup 2: 2022 Bear → TLT Lost 31.4% Alongside SPY -18%** The S&P 500 fell from its January 3, 2022 peak of 4,796 to its October 12, 2022 low of approximately 3,577, a 25.4% drawdown over 9 months. The Fed delivered 425 basis points of hikes during the year (25bp in March, 50bp in May, 75bp×4 from June through November, 50bp in December). The 10-year Treasury yield rose from…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Mixed Signals on Which Regime** The April 2026 setup has features of both regimes. SPY at $711.69 is near record highs and has compounded substantially through 2024 to 2026. The 10-year breakeven inflation at 2.33% sits modestly above the Fed's 2% target. The March 2026 CPI just printed at 3.3% YoY, the largest single-month upside surprise since the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the Regime 1 (TLT hedges) case from the Regime 2 (TLT and SPY both fall) case for any future SPY drawdown:

#### What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sp500-drops-20-percent/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?SPY $711, Gold $4,613** The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026 at $711.69, near record highs. Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce on April 29, 2026. A 20% SPY drawdown from current levels would take the index to approximately $570, last seen in early 2024 when gold was approximately $2,400.
**Why a 20% SPY Drop Matters for Gold: Three Regime Outcomes** Gold during a 20%-plus S&P 500 drawdown can produce three distinct outcomes depending on the macro trigger.
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 Bear → Gold +20% Net of Drawdown** The S&P 500 fell 56.8% from October 2007 to March 2009. Gold peaked at $1,033 in March 2008 (approximately 12 months into the equity bear), fell to $692.50 in late September 2008 during the acute Lehman-aftermath deleveraging phase (a roughly 33% peak-to-trough drawdown across the year, with the most stressed selling…
**Setup 2: 2020 COVID Bear → Gold V-Bottomed at $1,471** The S&P 500 fell 33.9% from February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020, the fastest bear market in modern history at 32 days. Gold fell from approximately $1,650 at the start of March 2020 to $1,471 on March 19, 2020, a roughly 11% drawdown during the acute deleveraging phase. The Fed cut from a 1.50% to 1.75% target range…
**Setup 3: 2022 Bear → Gold Range-Bound, Central-Bank Bid Activated** The S&P 500 fell 25.4% from January 3, 2022 to October 12, 2022. Gold during this period was range-bound between $1,656 (October 21, 2022 low) and approximately $1,900 (peaks in March, June 2022 around the Russia-Ukraine outbreak). Gold neither hedged the equity drawdown effectively nor declined catastrophically. The…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the gold-rallies case from the gold-stalls case during a hypothetical 20%-plus SPY drawdown:

#### What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sp500-drops-20-percent/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?SPY $711, BTC $77,160** The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed April 28, 2026 at $711.69, near record highs. Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on April 29, 2026, well below its all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. Total US spot bitcoin ETF AUM exceeds $102 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT at approximately $63 billion. A 20%…
**Why a 20% SPY Drop Matters for Bitcoin: Beta Plus Leverage Cascade** BTC during a 20%-plus S&P 500 drawdown responds through two channels. The high-beta channel: BTC has historically traded as a 2.5x to 3x leveraged equity position during equity stress, with BTC drawdowns roughly 2.5x to 3x the SPY drawdown over comparable windows. SPY -10% has typically meant BTC -25% to -30%; SPY…
**Setup 1: 2020 COVID Bear → BTC -57% Alongside SPY -34%** The S&P 500 fell 33.9% from February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 in just 32 days, the fastest bear market in modern history. BTC fell from approximately $9,200 in early March 2020 to $3,949 on March 13, 2020, a 57% drawdown in approximately two weeks. The drop was driven by global liquidation as all asset classes saw…
**Setup 2: 2022 Bear → BTC -77% Alongside SPY -25%** The S&P 500 fell 25.4% from January 3, 2022 to October 12, 2022. BTC fell from $68,789 on November 10, 2021 to $15,480 on November 22, 2022, a 77% drawdown that bottomed at the FTX collapse approximately one month after the SPY trough. The BTC drawdown was approximately 3x the SPY drawdown, consistent with the…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → ETF Bid Active, Macro Triggers Multiple** BTC at $77,160 in April 2026 enters any potential equity bear from a different starting position than 2020 or 2022. The ETF bid is substantial ($102 billion total AUM, $63 billion at IBIT alone) and has been net-positive for four consecutive weeks through April 24 ($824 million in inflows during that window). The…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-drawdown case from the cascade case for BTC during a 20%-plus SPY drawdown:

### What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?
#### What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/initial-claims-spike/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Claims 189K, SPY $711.69** Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 189,000 in the week ending April 25, 2026, down from 215,000 the prior week per the Department of Labor weekly release. The 4-week moving average sits at approximately 207,500, the lowest reading in nearly a year and well below any historical recession threshold. The S&P…
**Why Claims Spikes Drive SPY: Earnings, Confidence, Fed Reaction** SPY response to initial claims spikes runs through three channels with sharply different lags. The earnings channel: rising layoffs reduce aggregate wages, which contract consumer spending (approximately 70% of US GDP per BEA), which compresses S&P 500 revenue. The transmission lag from claims spike to SPY earnings…
**Setup 1: 2008-2009 Claims Spike to 665K, SPY -38% Calendar 2008** Initial claims peaked at 665,000 in March 2009 per DOL data, the highest weekly reading since 1982 prior to the COVID episode, representing 0.424% of the labor force per AEI Carpe Diem analysis. The 4-week moving average had crossed 280,000 in spring 2007 per FRED IC4WSA data, roughly 18 months before the SPY peaked…
**Setup 2: April 2020 Claims to 6.6 Million, SPY +18.4% Calendar** Initial claims spiked to 6,648,000 in the week ending April 4, 2020 per DOL data, the largest weekly reading in US history and roughly 10 times the prior weekly record set during the 1982 recession. Cumulative claims reached approximately 16 million across three weeks (March 21 to April 11, 2020), representing about…
**Setup 3: August 2024 Claims to 249K, Sahm Trigger, SPY Recovery in Weeks** Initial claims rose to 249,000 in the week ending July 27, 2024 per Bloomberg/DOL, a one-year high coinciding with the Sahm Rule triggering on the August 2, 2024 NFP release that pushed unemployment to 4.3%. SPY fell -1.8% on August 2, 2024 (with NASDAQ -2.4% per CNBC), then declined further into the August 5, 2024…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-claims case from the sustained-breakout case for SPY in the current setup:

### What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?
#### What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-rates-go-negative/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Real Yield 1.93%, Gold $4,613** The 10-year TIPS real yield reads 1.93% on April 29, 2026, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.33%. Gold spot trades at approximately $4,613.57 per ounce. The textbook 2010 to 2022 model would have predicted gold to be flat to declining at this real yield level, because positive 10-year real yields above…
**Why Negative Real Rates Drive Gold: Opportunity Cost Vanishes** Gold pays no yield. Holding gold sacrifices the income an investor could earn on a Treasury or TIPS. The 10-year TIPS real yield is the cleanest single read on that opportunity cost: it is the inflation-adjusted return an investor gives up to hold gold instead of US government debt of equivalent maturity.
**Setup 1: 2012-2013 First Negative TIPS → Gold $1,920 ATH** The 10-year TIPS yield first auctioned at a negative level on January 19, 2012 at minus 0.046%, the first time in the 23-year history of TIPS auctions. The yield deepened through 2012, with the May 2012 auction at minus 0.329% and the December 2012 auction at minus 0.720%. Gold reached its prior all-time high near…
**Setup 2: 2020-2021 Pandemic Negative Rates → Gold $2,075 ATH** The COVID-19 emergency response produced the deepest negative real yields in the modern record. The 10-year TIPS auction on July 23, 2020 priced at minus 0.93%, the lowest in TIPS auction history at that time. Gold reached its prior all-time high above $2,075 per ounce in August 2020, with COMEX gold crossing $2,000…
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 Rate Hikes → Gold Defied the Textbook** The 2022 hiking cycle drove the 10-year TIPS yield from approximately minus 1.0% in early 2022 to plus 2.5% at the late-2023 peak, the largest positive swing in real yields in the modern record. Under the textbook 2010 to 2022 model, gold should have collapsed. Instead, gold rose from $1,656.43 on October 21, 2022…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would indicate that 10-year real yields are heading back toward negative territory:

#### What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative? → Bitcoin
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-rates-go-negative/btc
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Real Yield 1.93%, BTC ~$77,000** The 10-year TIPS real yield reads 1.93% on April 29, 2026. Bitcoin trades at approximately $77,160 on the morning of April 29, 2026, well below the all-time high of $126,198 reached on October 6, 2025. Total US spot bitcoin ETF AUM exceeds $102 billion as of April 23, 2026, with BlackRock's IBIT at approximately $63…
**Why Negative Real Rates Drive Bitcoin: Liquidity Plus Debasement** Bitcoin's correlation with real yields runs through two channels. The liquidity channel: negative real yields require either Fed QE or aggressive cuts or both, and both produce more risk-asset capital that flows into bitcoin via ETFs and direct accumulation. The debasement channel: the act of accepting a negative real…
**Setup 1: 2012-2013 Negative Rates → BTC Was Pre-Macro** The 2012 to 2013 negative-real-yield regime predates bitcoin's integration with the macro liquidity framework. BTC traded between roughly $5 and $1,200 during this period, with the November 2013 cycle peak near $1,200 driven by retail and early-adopter speculation rather than any macro real-yield channel. There were…
**Setup 2: 2020-2021 Pandemic Negatives → BTC Rallied 17x** The COVID-era negative real yields produced the largest BTC rally on record. The 10-year TIPS auction on July 23, 2020 priced at minus 0.93% (record at the time). The auction lows extended through 2021: minus 0.805% in May 2021, minus 1.016% in July 2021 (record), minus 1.145% in November 2021 (all-time auction low).
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 Real Rate Surge → BTC -77% Then $126k ATH** The 2022 hiking cycle drove the 10-year TIPS yield from approximately minus 1.0% in early 2022 to plus 2.5% at the late-2023 peak. BTC collapsed across this real-yield surge from $68,789 on November 10, 2021 to $15,480 on November 22, 2022, a -77% drawdown driven by forced-deleveraging cascades (Terra/Luna in May…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the cycle-extension case from the macro-headwind case for BTC:

#### What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/real-rates-go-negative/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Real Yield 1.93%, TLT $85.65** The 10-year TIPS real yield reads 1.93% on April 29, 2026. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed April 29, 2026 at $85.65, with a 30-day SEC yield of 4.88% and a 52-week range of $83.91 to $92.05. TLT remains far below its $179.70 all-time high recorded on March 9, 2020, when 10-year real yields were…
**Why Negative Real Rates Drive TLT: Duration on Falling Nominals** TLT performance in any rate regime is governed by which leg of the curve moves and by how much. Through duration mathematics, every 25 basis point move in long-end yields translates to roughly 4.5% in TLT price (TLT effective duration is approximately 17.5 years).
**Setup 1: 2012-2013 Negative Rates → Bond Bull Then Taper Tantrum** The 10-year TIPS yield first auctioned at a negative level on January 19, 2012 at minus 0.046%. The negative-yield regime persisted through most of 2012 and into early 2013, with the December 2012 auction at minus 0.720%. TLT performed strongly through this period, supported by Fed QE3 announced in September 2012 ($40…
**Setup 2: 2020-2021 Pandemic Negatives → TLT $179.70 ATH** The COVID-era response produced the deepest negative real yields in the modern record. The 10-year TIPS auction on July 23, 2020 priced at minus 0.93% (record low at that time). The auction lows extended through 2021: minus 0.805% in May 2021, minus 1.016% in July 2021 (record), minus 1.145% in November 2021 (all-time…
**Setup 3: 2022-2024 Real Rate Surge → TLT -54% Drawdown** The 2022 hiking cycle drove the 10-year TIPS yield from approximately minus 1.0% in early 2022 to plus 2.5% at the late-2023 peak. TLT collapsed across this real-yield surge, falling from $179.70 in March 2020 to $82.42 in October 2023, a drawdown of roughly 54% and one of the worst long-bond drawdowns in the modern…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals indicate whether 10-year real yields are heading back toward negative territory:

### What Happens When Bitcoin Halves?
#### What Happens When Bitcoin Halves? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-halves/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Halving Two Years Past, SPY $711.69** The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024 per LSEG/Fidelity Digital Assets, reducing the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. Bitcoin closed approximately $63,762 on halving day, then traded at $83,671 by April 15, 2025 (one year later) per Fidelity Digital Assets, a +31% gain that…
**Why Bitcoin Halvings Drive SPY: Risk-On Sentiment, Liquidity Conditions, Wealth Effect** SPY response to Bitcoin halvings runs through three indirect channels rather than direct mechanical linkage. The risk-on-sentiment channel: Bitcoin halvings have historically marked the start of crypto bull markets, which extend to broader risk-asset enthusiasm. The 2012 halving preceded SPY +32.31% calendar 2013; the…
**Setup 1: November 2012 First Halving, BTC +7,000% Then SPY +32.31% Calendar 2013** The first Bitcoin halving occurred on November 28, 2012 per multiple sources, reducing the block reward from 50 to 25 BTC. Bitcoin traded at approximately $12 on halving day, then surged +7,000% over the following 12 months (some sources cite up to +9,000%) per Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysis, peaking near $1,200 in…
**Setup 2: July 2016 Second Halving, BTC +291%, SPY Through 2016-2017** The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016 per multiple sources, reducing the block reward from 25 to 12.5 BTC. Bitcoin traded at approximately $650 on halving day, then rallied +291% over the following 12 months and approximately +1,300% over 18 months to the December 17, 2017 ATH of $19,783 per CoinDesk…
**Setup 3: April 2024 Fourth Halving, BTC +31% (Weakest), SPY +24.89% Calendar** The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024 per LSEG/Fidelity Digital Assets, reducing the block subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin traded at $63,762 on halving day, then reached $83,671 by April 15, 2025 (one year later) per Fidelity Digital Assets, a +31% gain that marks the weakest 12-month…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the post-2024-halving cycle continues to support SPY or whether crypto cycle dynamics begin diverging from equity strength in current positioning at $711.69:

### What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards?
#### What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bank-lending-tightens/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?SLOOS Easing, SPY $711.69** The Federal Reserve's January 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) showed net 5.3% of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and middle-market firms per FRED DRTSCILM (Q4 2025 reporting period), with 9% net tightening for C&I loans to small firms (annual sales under…
**Why SLOOS Tightening Drives SPY: Credit Supply, Earnings, Confidence** SPY response to SLOOS tightening runs through three reinforcing channels. The credit-supply channel: bank lending standards directly restrict the supply of credit available to small businesses (which cannot access bond markets), commercial real estate borrowers (which depend on regional bank funding), and…
**Setup 1: 2008 GFC, SLOOS Peaked 84%, SPY Collapsed -57%** SLOOS C&I tightening for large and middle-market firms peaked at approximately 84% (precisely 83.6%) in Q4 2008 per FRED DRTSCILM historical data, the highest reading in series history since the 1990 inception. The fraction of banks reporting tighter prime mortgage standards hit a then-record 75% in the July 2008…
**Setup 2: 2020 COVID, SLOOS Spiked 71%, SPY +18.4% Calendar via Fed Response** SLOOS C&I tightening for large and middle-market firms spiked to 71.2% in Q3 2020 per FRED DRTSCILM (October 2020 SLOOS reporting period) during the COVID pandemic. Significant net shares of banks reported tightening on weaker demand from firms of all sizes, with major banks citing less favorable economic outlook plus…
**Setup 3: 2023-2024 SVB Crisis, SLOOS 50% Peak, SPY Up 56% in Two Years** SLOOS C&I tightening peaked at approximately 50% in Q2 2023 per FRED/KPMG around the SVB-Signature-First Republic banking crisis (silicon valley bank $209B failure March 10, banking sector $548.5B in combined failures). SLOOS C&I to large firms moderated to 34% Q3 2023 then 15% Q4 2023 per KPMG analysis, with the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next round of SLOOS tightening produces the 2008 systemic-contagion pattern, the 2020 policy-overridden pattern, or the 2023-2024 false-positive pattern in current SPY positioning at $711.69:

### What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?
#### What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/m2-contracts/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?M2 $22.7T Growing, SPY $711.69** The US M2 money supply (seasonally adjusted) reached $22,686.0 billion in March 2026 per the Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stock Measures release April 28, 2026, up 4.6% year-over-year. M2 growth has accelerated meaningfully from 2.97% YoY in October 2024, with year-over-year growth more than doubling across 12 months.…
**Why M2 Contraction Drives SPY: Liquidity, Velocity, Confidence** SPY response to M2 contraction runs through three reinforcing channels. The liquidity channel: M2 captures the broad money available for transactions across cash, checkable deposits, savings deposits, and money-market mutual funds. When M2 contracts, the marginal dollar available for asset purchases shrinks,…
**Setup 1: 1921 M2 Decline Plus Dow -40%, The Canonical Contraction Bear** The 1921 M2 contraction is the canonical pre-modern case for "M2 decline of 2%-plus produces 40%-plus equity drawdown." US M2 money supply fell more than 2% during 1921 per Stansberry/Motley Fool historical analysis, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted approximately 40% during the same period. The 1921…
**Setup 2: 2022-2023 M2 Contraction, First Since Great Depression, SPY -25% Then Full Recovery** M2 peaked at $21.7 trillion in July 2022 per FRED M2SL/multiple sources, then declined to $20.6 trillion by October 2023 (the trough) before recovering to $20.87 trillion December 2023. The peak-to-trough M2 decline was approximately -5% absolute and -2.5% YoY at the worst, marking the first sustained M2 contraction…
**Setup 3: 2008-2009 M2 Growth Plus QE, SPY -38% Then +26.37% Recovery** The 2008-2009 cycle showed an unusual configuration where the Federal Reserve monetary base exploded upward after September 2008 even as M2 growth remained little altered initially per ResearchGate/Federal Reserve analysis. Commercial bank excess reserves rose from near zero to above 90%, meaning very little of the…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-liquidity case from the M2-reversal-driven stress case for SPY in the current setup with M2 at $22.7T growing 4.6% YoY:

### What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?
#### What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/financial-conditions-tighten/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?NFCI ~-0.55, SPY $711.69** The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) reads approximately -0.55 standard deviations as of the April 24, 2026 release per Chicago Fed data, indicating financial conditions remain looser than the long-run average despite Iran tensions plus gasoline-driven CPI surprise. The NFCI distills 105 measures…
**Why NFCI Tightening Drives SPY: Credit Supply, Multiples, Lagged Transmission** SPY response to NFCI tightening runs through three reinforcing channels with very different lags. The credit-supply channel: NFCI captures bank lending standards, corporate bond spreads, equity volatility, and money-market funding conditions in a single composite. When NFCI rises above zero, the financial system is…
**Setup 1: 2008 GFC, NFCI Peak +3.0, SPY -57% Peak-to-Trough** The NFCI peaked at approximately +3.0 standard deviations during the 2008 financial crisis per Chicago Fed historical data, the tightest financial conditions since the Great Depression. The index trajectory tracked the cascade: pre-Bear Stearns (March 2008) NFCI was already elevated near +0.5; post-Bear Stearns NFCI…
**Setup 2: March 2020 COVID, NFCI Brief +1.0 Spike, SPY +18.4% Calendar** The NFCI spiked briefly to approximately +1.0 during the March 2020 COVID liquidity crisis per Chicago Fed historical data, before massive Fed intervention loosened conditions within weeks. From February 21 through March 20, 2020, the NFCI saw large positive week-to-week revisions as financial markets tightened in the…
**Setup 3: 2022-2023 Cycle, NFCI Tightened from -0.5 to ~0, SPY -25% Then Recovery** The 2022-2023 tightening cycle pushed NFCI from deeply negative (-0.5, very loose) toward zero or modestly positive as the Fed raised rates from 0% to 5.25% across 11 consecutive meetings per Chicago Fed historical data. The NFCI never crossed firmly positive despite 525bp of cumulative Fed hikes, frustrating…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the favorable continued-loose case from the eventual-tightening case for SPY in the current setup with NFCI at -0.55:

### What Happens When GDP Contracts?
#### What Happens When GDP Contracts? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/gdp-contracts/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?GDP +2.0% Q1, SPY $711.69** Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of +2.0% in Q1 2026 per the BEA Advance Estimate released April 30, 2026, accelerating from +0.5% in Q4 2025. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew +2.5% in Q1 2026, compared with +1.8% in Q4 2025. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose +3.6% in Q1 2026,…
**Why GDP Contraction Drives SPY: Earnings, Discount Rates, Risk Premia** SPY response to GDP contraction runs through three reinforcing channels with different magnitudes. The earnings channel: aggregate corporate revenue tracks nominal GDP closely on multi-quarter horizons. A 1% reduction in real GDP plus a 1% reduction in inflation produces approximately 2% reduction in nominal revenue,…
**Setup 1: 1973-1975 Stagflation, GDP -3.1% Peak-to-Trough, S&P 500 -48%** Real GDP contracted approximately -3.1% peak-to-trough across the 1973 to 1975 recession per NBER/Wikipedia data, with the cycle officially dated November 1973 to March 1975 (16 months). The 1974 calendar year alone saw real GDP -0.5%. The S&P 500 fell -48% from January 1973 to October 1974 per Wikipedia. The OPEC oil…
**Setup 2: 2008-2009 Great Recession, GDP -4.3% Peak-to-Trough, S&P 500 -57%** Real GDP contracted -4.3% peak-to-trough across the 2008 to 2009 cycle per Federal Reserve History, the deepest postwar contraction at the time. Q4 2008 saw the steepest single quarter at -8.9% annualized per BEA/Wikipedia, the worst quarterly drop since 1982. The recession lasted 18 months from December 2007 to June…
**Setup 3: 2020 COVID, GDP -31.4% Q2 Annualized, SPY +18.4% Calendar** Real GDP contracted -31.4% annualized in Q2 2020 per the BEA initial estimate (later revised to -31.7% in the second estimate), the worst quarterly contraction ever recorded by a wide margin (more than triple any previous decline). The recovery was equally unprecedented: Q3 2020 produced +33.4% annualized growth per…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the +2.0% Q1 2026 GDP print evolves toward acceleration, soft-landing, or contraction:

### What Happens When SOFR Spikes Above Fed Funds?
#### What Happens When SOFR Spikes Above Fed Funds? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/sofr-funding-spike/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?SOFR 3.63%, SPY $711.69** The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) printed 3.63644% for April 29, 2026 per New York Fed/FRED, well within the Fed funds target range of 3.50% to 3.75% set at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting. The SOFR-to-fed-funds spread is approximately 13 basis points, normal for a non-stress regime. The Interest on…
**Why SOFR Spikes Drive SPY: Funding Stress, Forced Selling, Fed Reaction** SPY response to SOFR spikes runs through three channels with very different magnitudes depending on duration and underlying cause. The funding-stress channel: SOFR spikes signal acute mismatches between reserves (Fed liability to banks) and demand for overnight financing. Drivers include quarter-end balance-sheet…
**Setup 1: September 17, 2019 Repo Spike, SOFR to 10% Intraday, SPY +31.22% Calendar** SOFR jumped from 2.43% on September 16, 2019 to 5.25% closing rate on September 17, 2019 per New York Fed/OFR/Wikipedia, with intraday repo rates reaching as high as 10% and the intraday range jumping to about 700 basis points from the typical 10-20 basis points. The spike was roughly 300bp above the fed funds target…
**Setup 2: March 2020 COVID Dollar Shortage, Fed Swap Lines, SPY +18.4% Calendar** The March 2020 COVID episode produced acute SOFR distortion driven by global dollar shortage as lenders and borrowers each sought to hoard dollars per New York Fed/Liberty Street Economics/BIS analysis. The average foreign exchange swap spread for the standing currency group rose from around 20 basis points in January…
**Setup 3: September 30, 2024 Quarter-End SOFR Spike, SRF Backstop, SPY Continued Rally** SOFR rose on September 30, 2024 pushing the spread between SOFR and the effective fed funds rate to 13 basis points per Bloomberg/New York Fed, the most since March 2020 and the largest one-day SOFR fixing increase since March 2020. Causes included declining reserve liquidity (continued QT had reduced reserves) plus…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next SOFR stress episode produces the 2019 contained-pattern, the 2020 systemic-but-policy-overridden pattern, or escalates beyond historical templates in current SPY positioning at $711.69:

### What Happens When the Euro Hits Parity with the Dollar?
#### What Happens When the Euro Hits Parity with the Dollar? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/euro-hits-parity/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?EUR/USD 1.17, Gold $4,613** EUR/USD trades at 1.1696 on April 29, 2026, well above the parity (1.00) level that triggered the headline-driven currency stress of 2022. The 2026 average has been approximately $1.1701 per X-Rates data, with the 2026 high of $1.2016 reached on January 27 and the 2026 low of $1.1435 reached on March 15. Gold spot…
**Why Euro Parity Drives Gold: Dollar Strength Plus Eurozone Stress** Euro-USD parity is rarely a euro-only event. The dollar component of the move is mechanically reflected in the DXY index, where the euro carries a 57.6% weight. Parity means EUR/USD has fallen approximately 13% from the long-run average near $1.15, which translates to a DXY rise of roughly 7% to 8% mechanically…
**Setup 1: 2002-2003 Parity → Gold Rallied 65% in Three Years** EUR/USD broke parity in early 2000 as the post-dot-com unwind drove dollar strength. The euro traded below $1.00 from October 2000 through July 2002, with the low near $0.823 in October 2000. Gold averaged approximately $279/oz in 2000, $271/oz in 2001, and $310/oz in 2002, a modest range during the deepest parity…
**Setup 2: 2022 Parity → Gold Held $1,656 Low** EUR/USD started 2022 at $1.137 and broke parity in July 2022, the first time in 20 years. The pair fell to its 2022 low of $0.960 on September 27, 2022, the day after the indefinite shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline confirmed the depth of the European energy crisis. The drivers were three-fold: European…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → Euro Above Parity, Gold at $4,613** The current setup is the inverse of the 2022 parity episode. EUR/USD at 1.1696 is well above parity, the dollar is range-bound at 98.92 on DXY despite 175 basis points of Fed cuts, and gold trades at $4,613, roughly 2.8x the October 2022 low. The 2024 to 2026 cycle has been characterized by the dollar holding firmer…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would indicate that EUR/USD is heading back toward parity:

#### What Happens When the Euro Hits Parity with the Dollar? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/euro-hits-parity/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?EUR/USD 1.1726, SPY $711.69** EUR/USD trades at 1.1726 on April 30, 2026 per TradingEconomics/poundsterlinglive, well above the parity (1.00) threshold and approximately 17% above the September 2022 cycle low of $0.9589. The pair has rallied approximately 14% across calendar 2025 from $1.04 January start to current levels, with EUR/USD up 3.86%…
**Why Euro Parity Drives SPY: Dollar Strength as Macro Signal** SPY response to EUR/USD parity runs through three channels with reinforcing magnitudes. The dollar-strength channel: EUR carries a 57.6% weight in DXY per ICE methodology, so EUR/USD falling from current 1.17 to 1.00 would mechanically lift DXY by approximately 7-8 percentage points via the euro channel alone. Other…
**Setup 1: 1999-2002 Parity Episode, EUR Launched at $1.17 to $0.823, SPY -49%** The euro launched January 1, 1999 at approximately $1.17 to USD per CurrencyTransfer/Macrotrends data and fell continuously through the dot-com cycle to a low of $0.823 in October 2000. EUR/USD remained below parity from October 2000 through July 2002, the longest sustained sub-parity period in the single-currency…
**Setup 2: 2022 Parity Break, EUR/USD $0.9589, SPY -18.1% Calendar** EUR/USD reached parity on July 13, 2022 per Euronews/Atlantic Council, the first time in 20 years since November 2002, before falling to its 2022 low of $0.9589 on September 27, 2022 per exchangerates.org.uk around the Nord Stream 1 indefinite shutdown announcement. The drivers were three-fold: European energy…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Above-Parity Recovery, EUR/USD 1.04 to 1.17, SPY +47%** EUR/USD has recovered from approximately $1.04 in early 2024 to $1.1726 currently, an approximately 13% rally across the 2024-2026 window driven by Fed-ECB policy convergence (both cutting toward neutral), narrowing growth differentials, and the post-COVID synchronous global recovery. SPY delivered +24.89% in 2024…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals would indicate that EUR/USD is heading back toward parity and SPY damage is engaging:

### What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000?
#### What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/bitcoin-hits-100k/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC $76K Below $100K Threshold, SPY Record Highs** Bitcoin trades at approximately $76,316 on the morning of April 30, 2026 per Fortune, well below the symbolic $100,000 threshold it first crossed on December 4 to 5, 2024. BTC peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025 per multiple sources, putting it currently approximately -40% from all-time high. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF…
**Why BTC at $100K Drives SPY: Risk Appetite, Liquidity, ETF Flows** SPY response to BTC threshold moves runs through three channels with distinct mechanisms. The risk-appetite channel: Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns share a common risk-on/risk-off factor, with rolling 30-day correlation peaking at 0.74 in March 2026 per Phemex/Newhedge analysis, the highest reading since the January 2024…
**Setup 1: December 2024 First $100K Cross, BTC +135%, SPY +24%** Bitcoin first crossed $100,000 on December 4 to 5, 2024 per Ledger/Forex.com, reaching $103,679 intraday and peaking near $108,000 in mid-December 2024. The crossing came just under a year after the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024 (trading began January 11, 2024). The S&P 500 set a record close at…
**Setup 2: October 2025 ATH $126,198, SPY Continued to New Highs** Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025 per multiple sources, with variants reported at $126,210.50, $126,080, and $125,835.92 across different exchanges. The peak came 10 months after the first $100K crossing, with Bitcoin briefly touching $124,500 in mid-August 2025 before consolidating and…
**Setup 3: 2026 Decoupling, BTC -40% from ATH, SPY at Record Highs** The 2026 cycle has produced an unusual decoupling. BTC has fallen approximately -40% from its October 6, 2025 ATH of $126,198 to current $76,316 on April 30, 2026 per Fortune, while the S&P 500 has set successive record closes in April 2026 (most recent 7,173.91 on April 26, 2026 per CNBC). IBIT YTD inflows of $1.5…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether BTC reclaims the $100K threshold and re-engages the historical risk-on correlation, or continues the 2026 decoupling pattern:

### What Happens When the Magnificent 7 Exceeds 30% of S&P 500?
#### What Happens When the Magnificent 7 Exceeds 30% of S&P 500? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/magnificent-7-dominates/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Mag 7 33.7% of S&P 500, SPY $711.69** The Magnificent 7 (Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Nvidia NVDA, Alphabet GOOG/GOOGL, Amazon AMZN, Meta META, Tesla TSLA) represent approximately 33.7% of the S&P 500 market capitalization as of April 2026 per Motley Fool/Multiple, having declined modestly from the December 2025 peak of 34.3%. The top 10 S&P 500 companies…
**Why Mag 7 Concentration Drives SPY: Performance Asymmetry, Multiple Exposure, Sector Rotation** SPY response to Magnificent 7 dominance and any subsequent break runs through three interrelated channels. The performance-asymmetry channel: Mag 7 contribution has driven the majority of S&P 500 returns over 2023-2024. The Magnificent 7 contributed approximately 62% of S&P 500 total return in 2023 (some sources…
**Setup 1: 1972-1974 Nifty Fifty, S&P 500 -49% Through Concentration Unwind** The Nifty Fifty era of 1969-1972 saw approximately 50 mega-cap "one-decision" growth stocks (Coca-Cola, Xerox, McDonald's, Avon, Disney, Polaroid, IBM, Eastman Kodak among them) reach P/E of 42x at the 1972 peak per Bridgeway/Wikipedia, more than twice the S&P 500 average of 19x. The 1973-1974 bear market then…
**Setup 2: 1999-2002 Dot-Com, S&P 500 -49% Through Top-10 Unwind** The dot-com era saw S&P 500 top 10 concentration peak intra-year at approximately 27% in 2000 per Visual Capitalist/RBC, ending the year at 23%. The dominant names at end of 1999 were Microsoft, General Electric, and Cisco, with Microsoft trading at 65x forward earnings, GE at 42x, and Cisco at 97x. The S&P 500 fell…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Mag 7 Era, S&P 500 +56% Across Two Years on AI Theme** The 2024-2026 Magnificent 7 era has been the most concentrated S&P 500 in modern history. SPY delivered +26.5% calendar 2023 plus +24.89% calendar 2024 plus +17.72% calendar 2025 per SlickCharts, cumulative approximately +56% across 2023-2024 with the majority concentrated in 7 names. Nvidia rose approximately +1,600%…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the continued-Mag 7-leadership case from the concentration-break case for SPY in current positioning at $711.69 with Mag 7 at 33.7%:

#### What Happens When the Magnificent 7 Exceeds 30% of S&P 500? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/magnificent-7-dominates/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Mag 7 33.7% of S&P 500, SPY $711.69** The Magnificent 7 (Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Nvidia NVDA, Alphabet GOOG/GOOGL, Amazon AMZN, Meta META, Tesla TSLA) represent approximately 33.7% of the S&P 500 market capitalization as of April 2026 per Motley Fool/Multiple, having declined modestly from the December 2025 peak of 34.3%. The top 10 S&P 500 companies…
**Why Mag 7 Concentration Drives SPY: Performance Asymmetry, Multiple Exposure, Sector Rotation** SPY response to Magnificent 7 dominance and any subsequent break runs through three interrelated channels. The performance-asymmetry channel: Mag 7 contribution has driven the majority of S&P 500 returns over 2023-2024. The Magnificent 7 contributed approximately 62% of S&P 500 total return in 2023 (some sources…
**Setup 1: 1972-1974 Nifty Fifty, S&P 500 -49% Through Concentration Unwind** The Nifty Fifty era of 1969-1972 saw approximately 50 mega-cap "one-decision" growth stocks (Coca-Cola, Xerox, McDonald's, Avon, Disney, Polaroid, IBM, Eastman Kodak among them) reach P/E of 42x at the 1972 peak per Bridgeway/Wikipedia, more than twice the S&P 500 average of 19x. The 1973-1974 bear market then…
**Setup 2: 1999-2002 Dot-Com, S&P 500 -49% Through Top-10 Unwind** The dot-com era saw S&P 500 top 10 concentration peak intra-year at approximately 27% in 2000 per Visual Capitalist/RBC, ending the year at 23%. The dominant names at end of 1999 were Microsoft, General Electric, and Cisco, with Microsoft trading at 65x forward earnings, GE at 42x, and Cisco at 97x. The S&P 500 fell…
**Setup 3: 2024-2026 Mag 7 Era, S&P 500 +56% Across Two Years on AI Theme** The 2024-2026 Magnificent 7 era has been the most concentrated S&P 500 in modern history. SPY delivered +26.5% calendar 2023 plus +24.89% calendar 2024 plus +17.72% calendar 2025 per SlickCharts, cumulative approximately +56% across 2023-2024 with the majority concentrated in 7 names. Nvidia rose approximately +1,600%…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the continued-Mag 7-leadership case from the concentration-break case for SPY in current positioning at $711.69 with Mag 7 at 33.7%:

### What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?
#### What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/convex-risk-appetite-collapses/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?CRAI Stable, SPY $711.69** The Convex Risk Appetite Index (CRAI) is a daily 0-100 cross-asset composite built from five independent paired-ETF ratios per the convextrade methodology paper: IWM/SPY (small-cap risk), HYG/LQD (credit quality), XLY/XLP (consumer cyclicality), EEM/EFA (global risk preference), and KRE/SPY (regional bank health).…
**Why CRAI Drives SPY: Composite Sentiment, Forced Selling, Reflexive Recovery** SPY response to CRAI extreme-fear readings runs through three reinforcing channels. The composite-signal channel: CRAI captures simultaneous risk-off behavior across five distinct dimensions (small-cap, credit, consumer, global, banks). When all five components align bearishly, the marginal seller is already in:…
**Setup 1: March 2020 COVID, CRAI Most Extreme on Record, SPY +70% in 12 Months** The CRAI registered its most extreme reading on record in March 2020 per CRAI methodology, coinciding with the COVID liquidity crisis. SPY fell -33.9% peak-to-trough from February 19, 2020 ($339 area) to March 23, 2020 in just 32 days, the fastest bear market in recorded history. All five CRAI components collapsed…
**Setup 2: September-November 2008 Lehman, CRAI Sustained Extreme Fear, SPY +15% in 12 Months** The CRAI collapsed into extreme fear repeatedly from September through November 2008 around Lehman bankruptcy plus AIG bailout plus TARP enactment per CRAI methodology. SPY fell -38% calendar 2008 per SlickCharts, with peak-to-trough drawdown reaching -57% by March 9, 2009 close at 676.53 per Wikipedia. All five CRAI…
**Setup 3: December 2018 Powell Pivot, Brief CRAI Extreme Fear, SPY +31% in 12 Months** The CRAI dipped into extreme fear briefly in December 2018 around Powell hawkish hike plus Q4 selloff per CRAI methodology. SPY fell -19.8% peak-to-trough from September 20 to December 24, 2018 per Wikipedia/Syntax, just shy of the technical bear-market threshold. SPY delivered -4.57% calendar 2018 per SlickCharts.…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-volatility case from the genuine-extreme-fear case for SPY in the current setup with CRAI in normal territory:

### What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative?
#### What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/nonfarm-payrolls-negative/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?NFP +178K, SPY at Record Highs** Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March 2026 per the BLS Employment Situation released April 3, 2026, with the unemployment rate little changed at 4.3%. February 2026 NFP was revised down from -92,000 to -133,000, while January 2026 was revised up from +126,000 to +160,000. The April 2026…
**Why Negative NFP Drives SPY: Confirmation, Earnings, Fed Policy** SPY response to negative NFP runs through three reinforcing channels. The recession-confirmation channel: NBER weights nonfarm payroll employment heavily in business cycle dating, and NFP is the most timely component of the recession-determination toolkit. A sustained negative NFP print combined with rising…
**Setup 1: 2008-2009 Great Recession, NFP -712K Average, S&P 500 -57%** The Great Recession produced the most severe sustained NFP losses since World War II. From October 2008 through March 2009, monthly NFP losses averaged -712,000 per BLS/EPI analysis, with the single-worst month at -802,000 in March 2009. Total NFP losses across the cycle were -8.7 million jobs from December 2007 to…
**Setup 2: April 2020 COVID Shock, NFP -20.5M Single Month, SPY +12.7%** April 2020 produced the largest single-month NFP decline in BLS history at -20.5 million jobs per CNBC, with total NFP losses from January 2020 to April 2020 reaching -22.1 million jobs per BLS/Statista (approximately 25 times the average monthly loss during the worst 2008 to 2009 stretch). The unemployment rate…
**Setup 3: 2023-2026 Soft Landing, NFP Decelerating, SPY +47%** The 2023 to 2026 cycle has produced repeated mid-cycle scares followed by soft-landing resumptions. NFP averaged approximately 200,000 per month in 2023 before decelerating to roughly 150,000 in 2024 and 100,000 to 180,000 across 2025 to early 2026. The August 2024 NFP release for July 2024 data triggered the Sahm…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the May 8, 2026 NFP release confirms the soft-landing path or initiates the recession-transition pattern:

### What Happens When Job Openings Collapse?
#### What Happens When Job Openings Collapse? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/job-openings-collapse/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?JOLTS 6.9M, SPY $711.69** US job openings stood at 6.9 million in February 2026 per the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary released March 31, 2026, little changed from January 2026. The hires rate fell to 3.1% in February, the lowest hires rate since April 2020 per BLS, with the number of hires decreased to 4.8 million (down 387,000…
**Why JOLTS Collapse Drives SPY: Earnings, Recession Confirmation, Wage Pressure** SPY response to JOLTS collapse runs through three reinforcing channels. The earnings channel: job openings reflect employer demand for labor, which mechanically tracks corporate revenue growth expectations. When JOLTS collapses 30%-plus across 12 months, S&P 500 EPS estimates compress with a lag of 2-3 quarters…
**Setup 1: 2007-2009 JOLTS -44%, SPY -36.81% Calendar 2008** During the 2007-2009 recession, the number of job openings decreased 44% per BLS Spotlight on Statistics analysis, while employment declined only 5% over the same period. JOLTS peaked at approximately 4.7M in April 2007, then collapsed to a series low of 2.1 million in July 2009 per BLS, one month after the official…
**Setup 2: April 2020 JOLTS -1.2M, SPY +18.4% Calendar via Fed Response** Job openings experienced their largest single-month decline in April 2020 with a 1.2 million decrease per BLS, the most severe drop in the JOLTS series during initial COVID shock. The collapse continued through April 2020 to approximately 5.4M trough, recovering to pre-pandemic 7.0M baseline by approximately May 2021…
**Setup 3: 2022-2024 JOLTS Decel from 12M to 7.5M, SPY +47% in Two Years** JOLTS peaked at the series-high 12.0 million in March 2022 per BLS Monthly Labor Review, the highest reading in JOLTS history (data since 2000). Job openings then decelerated steadily across 2022-2024: 11.2M December 2022, 9.0M July 2023, 7.5M area Q4 2024, reaching 7.0M area early 2026. The quits rate declined from a…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the continued-soft-landing case from the recession-confirmation case for SPY in current positioning at $711.69 with JOLTS at 6.9M:

### What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge?
#### What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/30y-yields-surge/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in May 2026? Long Bonds Range-Trading Below the 2023 Stress Highs** The 30-year Treasury yield is trading in the high-4s in mid-May 2026 after a multi-year cycle that took it from a March 2020 record low of 0.99% to a peak above 5% in October 2023, the first time the long bond crossed 5% since 2007. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) holds the most rate-sensitive segment of…
**Why a 30Y Yield Surge Crushes TLT: Duration Mechanics and the Convexity Trap** TLT is the most direct casualty of any 30Y yield surge through pure duration mechanics. The math is unforgiving: at 16-17 years duration, a 100 basis point yield rise produces a 16-17% price loss before convexity adjustments, and convexity itself works against the bond holder on rapid moves (the relationship between…
**Setup 1: October 2023 — 30Y Cracks 5%, TLT Hits $82** The 30Y yield broke above 5% on October 19, 2023, the first time since July 2007. The trigger combination was the November 1, 2023 Treasury refunding announcement (quarterly refunding sizes raised by $7-9B per maturity, signalling persistent supply pressure), a notable Treasury auction tail on the October 12 30-year…
**Setup 2: 1994 — The Tequila-Era Bear Steepener** The 1994 cycle is the second canonical reference for what happens to long-duration Treasuries when the curve bear-steepens off a yield surge. The Fed hiked from 3.00% to 6.00% over 12 months starting February 1994, but the 30Y yield rose roughly 200 basis points (per widely-cited historical commentary) — the long end…
**What to Watch for the Next 30Y Surge** Three signals separate "TLT range trade in $85-100" from "TLT breakdown to retest the 2023 lows":

#### What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/30y-yields-surge/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in May 2026? Record SPY With Elevated Long Rates** The S&P 500 has held near record highs through 2025 and into 2026 despite the long bond trading in the high-4% range. SPY is in the $700+ region after a back-to-back 17%+ years in 2024 and 2025, while the 30Y yield is roughly 100 basis points above its 2010-2019 average. The historical relationship would have…
**Why a 30Y Surge Hits SPY: Real Rates and the Earnings Yield Spread** The long-end yield drives equities through two interconnected channels. The discount-rate channel: long-duration cash flows (which dominate the cap-weighted index because the Magnificent Seven account for roughly 30% of SPY weight) are discounted by long real yields. Every 100 basis points of real-yield expansion…
**Setup 1: October 2023 — SPY -10% While 30Y Crossed 5%** The S&P 500 peaked at 4607 on July 31, 2023 and then fell approximately 10% to its October 27, 2023 low of 4117, almost exactly mirroring the 30Y yield rise from 3.85% to 5.10% over the same window. The peak-to-trough timing was clean: equity weakness began the day after the 30Y yield broke above 4.30%, accelerated as…
**Setup 2: 1987 — Bond Crash Preceded the Equity Crash by Months** The 1987 cycle is the historical reminder that 30Y yield surges have preceded major equity dislocations not by weeks but by months. The 30Y yield rose from approximately 7.5% in early 1987 to above 10% by September, a brutal 250+ basis point move. The S&P 500 initially shrugged off the bond move (a setup analogous to…
**What to Watch for SPY in the Next 30Y Surge** Three signals separate "SPY grinds higher despite the 30Y" from "SPY compresses 10-20% on long-end stress":

#### What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge? → 30Y Mortgage Rate
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/30y-yields-surge/mortgage30us
**Where Do Things Stand in May 2026? Mortgage Rates Have Eased From the 2023 Peak But Remain Restrictive** The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.23% the week of April 23, 2026 and 6.46% the week of April 2, 2026, putting the April monthly range at 6.23-6.46%. That is materially below the October 2023 cycle peak of 7.79% (Freddie Mac PMMS, the two-decade high) but still well above the pre-2022 range that…
**Why a 30Y Surge Hits Mortgages: Term Premium Plus MBS Spread** The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is determined by two components: the underlying long-end Treasury yield (the 10Y is the closest reference, though the actual MBS duration is shorter due to prepayment options) plus the MBS spread that compensates investors for prepayment risk, credit risk, and supply-demand dynamics.…
**Setup 1: October 2023 — Mortgage Rates Hit 7.79%, Housing Activity Froze** The October 2023 episode produced the canonical modern playbook for "30Y surge plus mortgage rate spike plus housing freeze." The 30-year fixed averaged 7.79% the week of October 26, 2023 (Freddie Mac PMMS), the highest reading since November 2000. Existing home sales fell roughly 40% from the early-2022 pace, new…
**Setup 2: 1981 — Mortgage Rates Reached 18.63%, Housing Crashed** The October 1981 mortgage rate of 18.63% (Freddie Mac PMMS, the all-time high) is the historical extreme that puts the 2023 cycle in perspective. The early-1980s mortgage spike accompanied the Volcker disinflation campaign, with the Fed funds rate at 19%, the 30Y Treasury above 14%, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate…
**What to Watch for Mortgage Rates in the Next 30Y Surge** Three signals separate "mortgage rates absorb the 30Y move" from "mortgage rates spike back through 7% and housing re-freezes":

#### What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge? → Gold (Spot)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/30y-yields-surge/gold
**Where Do Things Stand in May 2026? Gold Above $4,500 Despite Positive Real Yields** Gold trades above $4,500 per ounce in May 2026 after a sustained rally that began at the October 2022 low near $1,656. The metal has approximately tripled over that window, a performance that has explicitly defied the textbook real-yield model — gold "should" have struggled with the 10Y TIPS yield staying above 1.5%…
**Why a 30Y Surge Cuts Both Ways for Gold** The traditional gold-rate mechanism runs through real yields. When the 30Y rises because the Fed is hiking and inflation breakevens stay anchored, the 10Y TIPS real yield rises and gold faces opportunity-cost pressure (gold pays no coupon, Treasuries do). This relationship dominated from roughly 2010 to 2022 and…
**Setup 1: October 2023 — Gold Stayed Bid Even as 30Y Crossed 5%** During the October 2023 episode when the 30Y broke above 5% and TLT made its cycle low and SPY fell 10%, gold traded in a remarkably tight $1,820-$2,050 range, finishing the month higher than where it started. The metal absorbed the real-yield rise (the 10Y TIPS yield made its cycle high near 2.5% in October 2023,…
**Setup 2: 1981 — Gold Crashed When the 30Y Surged to 14%** The 1980-1981 cycle is the historical reminder that gold is not immune to 30Y yield surges when the surge is driven by aggressive monetary tightening with real yields turning sharply positive. Volcker took the Fed funds rate to 19% by 1981, the 30Y yield peaked above 14%, and the 10Y real yield reached 8%+ (the…
**What to Watch for Gold in the Next 30Y Surge** Three signals separate "gold absorbs the 30Y surge" from "gold cracks alongside Treasuries":

### What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?
#### What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/regional-banks-stress/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?KRE $69.88, SPY $711.69** The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) traded at $69.88 on April 30, 2026 per Robinhood/Yahoo Finance, with the 52-week range spanning $53.71 to $74.08 and a year-to-date total return of +7.12%. KRE manages approximately $3.71 billion in net assets across the regional-banking universe, with an expense ratio of 0.35%…
**Why Regional Bank Stress Drives SPY: Credit, Confidence, Contagion** SPY response to regional bank stress runs through three channels with very different magnitudes depending on whether the stress stays contained or becomes systemic. The credit-tightening channel: regional banks hold approximately 30% of US commercial real estate loans per FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, versus roughly…
**Setup 1: March 2023 SVB Crisis, KRE -27%, SPY -4.6% Week** Silicon Valley Bank failed on March 10, 2023 per FDIC ($209 billion in assets, second-largest US bank failure in history at the time), Signature Bank closed March 12, 2023 ($110 billion in assets, regulators citing systemic risks), and First Republic Bank failed May 1, 2023 ($213 billion in assets, third-largest US…
**Setup 2: 2008 Lehman, KBW Bank Index -84%, SPY -57%** The KBW Bank Index (BKX) fell approximately -84% peak-to-trough from February 2007 to March 2009, and the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) fell roughly -75% peak-to-trough during the same window, both materially deeper than the broad S&P 500 -56.8% drawdown. The cascade ran from Bear Stearns failure (March 2008)…
**Setup 3: 1990-1991 S&L Crisis, S&P 500 -19.9%** The savings and loan crisis saw approximately 1,043 of 3,234 thrifts fail between 1986 and 1995 per FDIC, with total resolution costs reaching approximately $160 billion. Congress appropriated an additional $30 billion in March 1991 on top of prior funding to address the crisis. The S&P 500 fell -19.9% peak-to-trough…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next round of regional bank stress produces the 2023 contained-pattern or the 2008 systemic-contagion pattern in current SPY positioning at $711.69:

### What Happens When Retail Sales Contract?
#### What Happens When Retail Sales Contract? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/retail-sales-contract/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Retail Sales +1.7% MoM, SPY $711.69** US retail and food services sales reached $752.1 billion in March 2026, up 1.7% from February 2026 and up 4.0% year-over-year per Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey released April 21, 2026. The January 2026 through March 2026 period showed +3.7% growth from the same period a year ago. Retail trade sales…
**Why Retail Contraction Drives SPY: Earnings, Recession Confirmation, Sector Rotation** SPY response to sustained retail sales contraction runs through three reinforcing channels. The earnings channel: retail sales captures the goods spending that flows directly into S&P 500 revenue (consumer discretionary at about 11% of the index, consumer staples at about 6%, plus indirect transmission through…
**Setup 1: 2008-2009 Retail Sales -10.2% YoY, SPY -36.81% Calendar** Q1 2009 total retail sales reached $909.6 billion, a -10.2% year-over-year decline from Q1 2008 per Census Bureau historical data, the peak YoY contraction of the Great Financial Crisis. Q4 2008 retail sales fell -7.8% from Q3 2008 ($938.1 billion total) per Census Bureau. The contraction extended across multiple…
**Setup 2: April 2020 Retail Sales -16.4% MoM, SPY +18.4% Calendar via Fed Response** April 2020 US retail sales tumbled -16.4% from March 2020 per CNBC/NPR/Census Bureau, the largest monthly drop in recorded history at total $403.9 billion versus March $483.5 billion. The annual decline reached -21.6% YoY per CNBC. Sector destruction was extreme: clothing stores -78.8% MoM (the largest sector decline…
**Setup 3: 2022 Retail Inventory Destocking, SPY -25% Peak-to-Trough** The 2022 episode showed nominal retail sales remaining resilient even as real (inflation-adjusted) retail sales stagnated, plus widespread retail-inventory pile-ups. Walmart Q1 2022 inventory rose 32.0% YoY to $61.2 billion per ICIS/Walmart earnings; Target Q1 2022 inventory rose 43.1% YoY per ICIS/Target earnings.…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-retail case from the sustained-contraction case for SPY in the current setup with March 2026 retail sales +1.7% MoM:

### What Happens When Natural Gas Spikes?
#### What Happens When Natural Gas Spikes? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/natural-gas-spikes/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Henry Hub $2.65, SPY $711.69** The Henry Hub natural gas spot price closed at $2.65/MMBtu on April 29, 2026 per TradingEconomics/EIA, with the front-month NYMEX contract at $2.67 on April 24, 2026. The price is well below historical spike levels and reflects above-normal storage (8% above seasonal norms for the week ended April 24, 2026 per EIA)…
**Why Natural Gas Spikes Drive SPY: Three Transmission Channels** SPY response to natural gas spikes runs through three channels with distinct lags. The headline-CPI channel: natural gas feeds directly into electricity costs (gas-fired generation supplies approximately 40% of US electricity per EIA) plus residential heating bills. Sustained spikes lift CPI energy components, which…
**Setup 1: 2008 Gas Spike to $13.31, SPY -36.81% Calendar** Henry Hub spot peaked at $13.31/MMBtu on July 3, 2008 per EIA/EveryCRSReport data, with NYMEX August 2008 futures cresting at $13.694/MMBtu on July 2, 2008. The spike was part of the broader 2008 commodity supercycle that drove WTI to $147/barrel in July 2008. By year-end 2008 Henry Hub had collapsed to $5.71/MMBtu as…
**Setup 2: 2022 European Energy Crisis, Gas $9.85, SPY -18.1% Calendar** Henry Hub spot peaked at $9.85/MMBtu on August 22, 2022 per EIA Today in Energy data, 60% above the year-start level, as the European energy crisis driven by Russia-Ukraine war supply disruption transmitted to US prices via LNG export arbitrage. European TTF month-ahead prices averaged over USD $50/MMBtu summer 2022…
**Setup 3: February 2021 Winter Storm Uri, Gas $23.86, SPY +28.75% Calendar** Henry Hub spot reached $23.86/MMBtu on February 17, 2021 per EIA Today in Energy data, an extreme spike from $3.76 just one week earlier on February 10, 2021. Winter Storm Uri cut US natural gas production by more than 15 Bcf/d per EIA/FERC, with Texas production falling 4.3 Bcf/d (-15%) to 21.5 Bcf/d on freeze-offs.…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether a hypothetical natural gas spike from current $2.65 levels would replicate the 2008/2022 macro-crisis pattern of SPY damage or the 2021 isolated-event pattern of SPY resilience:

### What Happens When USD/JPY Exceeds 160?
#### What Happens When USD/JPY Exceeds 160? → S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yen-weakens-past-160/spy
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?USD/JPY ~159, SPY at Record Highs** USD/JPY traded between 158.815 and 159.795 during the week of April 21 to 24, 2026, just below the 160 threshold that has historically triggered Japanese MOF intervention. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% for a fourth straight meeting at its April 2026 decision, with three of nine board members voting…
**Why the Yen Drives SPY: Carry-Trade Unwind Mechanics** The yen during a sharp weakening or sharp reversal episode drives SPY through the carry-trade channel. Japanese investors and global hedge funds borrow in yen at low Japanese rates and invest in higher-yielding dollar assets including US equities. As long as the yen is trending weaker, the carry trade is doubly…
**Setup 1: 1998 USD/JPY 147 → S&P 500 -19% in LTCM Crisis** USD/JPY peaked at 147 on August 11, 1998, an 8-year low for the yen against the dollar. The combination of the Asian financial crisis (Thailand baht devaluation July 1997 spreading regionally), Russian default (August 17, 1998), and the LTCM near-failure (LTCM lost 44% of its value in August 1998 alone, $4.6B in less…
**Setup 2: July 2024 USD/JPY 161.62 → August 5 Risk-Off** USD/JPY peaked at 161.62 on July 3, 2024, the highest level since 1986. The Japanese MOF spent approximately $62 billion defending the yen in 2024, the largest intervention campaign since 1998. The BoJ delivered a 15 basis point hike on July 31, 2024, taking the policy rate to 0.25%. The combination of BoJ tightening…
**Setup 3: April 2026 → 159 Approaching Intervention Threshold** USD/JPY at approximately 159 in late April 2026 is just below the 155 to 160 intervention threshold that JPMorgan FX research has identified for 2026. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% at its April 2026 meeting with three hawkish dissents; the next meeting in June 2026 carries a higher probability of a rate hike.…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the cascade case from the contained-yen-spike case for SPY:

#### What Happens When USD/JPY Exceeds 160? → Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/yen-weakens-past-160/qqq
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?USD/JPY 156.57, QQQ $657.55** USD/JPY traded at 156.57 on April 30, 2026 per TradingEconomics, down 2.38% from the prior session on intervention-threat headlines, but earlier in the month touched 160.47 (the lowest yen vs USD since July 2024). The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% at the April 28, 2026 meeting per CNBC for the fourth…
**Why USD/JPY Past 160 Drives QQQ: Carry Trades, Risk Sentiment, Indirect Exposure** QQQ response to USD/JPY past 160 runs through three interacting channels. The carry-trade-unwind channel: yen-funded carry trades involve borrowing low-yield JPY to invest in higher-yield foreign assets (Treasuries, EM currencies, or equities/crypto), with total notional positions estimated at $4 trillion globally…
**Setup 1: October 2022 First Crossed 150, Brief MOF Intervention** USD/JPY first crossed the 150 threshold in October 2022 per BIS/FXEmpire, reaching an intraday high of 151.94 on October 21, 2022, the highest level since 1990. The MOF intervened in October 2022, selling approximately $43 billion in reserves to defend the yen at the 151-152 level per multiple sources, the first FX…
**Setup 2: July 2024 USD/JPY 161.95 Peak, August 5 2024 QQQ Open Down -5%** USD/JPY peaked at 161.95 on July 3, 2024 per PoundSterlingLive/FXStreet, a 38-year high reaching levels last seen in 1986 (Plaza Accord era). The BoJ unexpectedly raised its benchmark rate from 0.10% to 0.25% on July 31, 2024 per Wellington Management, surprising markets and triggering immediate carry-trade unwind.…
**Setup 3: 1998 USD/JPY 147 Plus LTCM, Coordinated G7 Response** USD/JPY peaked at approximately 147 on August 11, 1998 per BIS/Wikipedia (8-year high at the time), coinciding with the LTCM hedge-fund crisis (LTCM lost 44% of value in August 1998 alone, $4.6 billion total losses in less than 4 months per Wikipedia). The S&P 500 fell -19% peak-to-trough from July 17, 1998 (peak) to…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals separate the contained-yen-weakness case from the August-2024-style maximum-transmission case for QQQ in the current setup with USD/JPY at 156.57:

### What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands?
#### What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands? → 20Y+ Treasury ETF
https://convextrade.com/what-happens-when/fed-balance-sheet-expands/tlt
**Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Fed Balance Sheet $6.7T, TLT $85.65** The Federal Reserve total assets stand at approximately $6.7 trillion as of April 22, 2026 per the Fed H.4.1 release, down roughly $19 billion from a year ago and well below the April 2022 peak of $8.97 trillion per Wolf Street/Federal Reserve data. Cumulative quantitative tightening (QT) since June 2022 has run off…
**Why Balance-Sheet Expansion Drives TLT: Three Reinforcing Channels** TLT response to Fed balance-sheet expansion runs through three channels with different magnitudes. The direct demand channel: when the Fed purchases Treasury securities, it absorbs a meaningful share of net Treasury supply, compressing yields across the curve. QE1 alone purchased $300 billion in long-term Treasuries…
**Setup 1: 2008-2014 QE1+QE2+QE3, Balance Sheet $0.9T to $4.5T** The Fed expanded its balance sheet roughly five-fold from approximately $0.9 trillion in September 2008 to $4.5 trillion in October 2014 per Congress.gov CRS and Brookings analysis, across three rounds of asset purchases. QE1 (announced November 25, 2008, expanded March 2009) totaled approximately $1.75 trillion. QE2…
**Setup 2: 2020 COVID QE, Balance Sheet $4.2T to $8.97T** The Fed expanded its balance sheet from approximately $4.2 trillion in February 2020 to $7.0 trillion by May 20, 2020, $7.4 trillion by year-end 2020, and a peak of $8.97 trillion in April 2022 per Liberty Street Economics, PGPF, and Wolf Street data. The expansion included unlimited quantitative easing announced…
**Setup 3: 2022-2026 QT Reverse, Balance Sheet $8.97T to $6.7T** The Fed reversed course beginning June 2022, reducing its balance sheet from approximately $8.97 trillion peak to $6.7 trillion by April 2026 per Wolf Street and Federal Reserve H.4.1 data, totaling $2.19 trillion in cumulative runoff. The Fed slowed the Treasury runoff cap from $60 billion per month to $25 billion…
**What Should Investors Watch in April 2026?** Three signals determine whether the next Fed move involves balance-sheet expansion that would drive TLT outperformance or continued QT that would extend the bond-bear pattern:

## Country Profiles (40 countries)

### Africa
- [South Africa](https://convextrade.com/countries/za): South African Reserve Bank (SARB), South African Rand (ZAR), GDP rank #41, next SARB decision 2026-05-28 (Cautious easing path; ZAR volatility the binding constraint)
  Themes: Eskom loadshedding impact; GNU coalition policy; Structural unemployment; Rand carry dynamics; PGM mining exports
  Watch: SARB repo rate; USD/ZAR; South Africa CPI; Eskom EAF availability; JALSH index
- [Egypt](https://convextrade.com/countries/eg): Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Egyptian Pound (EGP), GDP rank #36, next CBE decision 2026-05-21 (High-rate regime sustained until inflation path stabilises)
  Themes: IMF programme cycle; Suez Canal revenue sensitivity; Gulf funding dependence; FX regime adjustments; Remittance inflows
  Watch: CBE lending rate; USD/EGP; Egypt core CPI; Suez Canal revenues; Net international reserves
- [Nigeria](https://convextrade.com/countries/ng): Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigerian Naira (NGN), GDP rank #39, next CBN decision 2026-05-20 (Continued tight stance to defend NGN and anchor inflation expectations)
  Themes: Naira FX unification; Fuel subsidy removal; Oil production undershoot; Dangote refinery commissioning; CBN credibility rebuild
  Watch: CBN MPR; USD/NGN; Nigeria CPI; Nigeria oil production vs quota; NGX All Share

### Asia Pacific
- [Japan](https://convextrade.com/countries/jp): Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japanese Yen (JPY), GDP rank #5, next BoJ decision 2026-04-30 (Gradual normalization path with pace calibrated to JPY stability and wage data)
  Themes: Exit from NIRP and YCC; Corporate governance reform; JPY-USD differential; Public debt and BoJ holdings; Demographic decline
  Watch: BoJ policy rate; JGB 10Y yield; USD/JPY; Japan CPI ex-fresh food; Nikkei 225; TSE PBR distribution
- [China](https://convextrade.com/countries/cn): People's Bank of China (PBoC), Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) (CNY), GDP rank #2, next PBoC decision 2026-04-21 (LPR stance anchored by growth targets and currency stability requirements)
  Themes: Property sector workout; Deflation and credit demand; Managed CNY fix; US technology decoupling; LGFV debt resolution; Advanced manufacturing pivot
  Watch: PBoC MLF/LPR rates; USD/CNH; China CPI and PPI; 10Y CGB yield; Property new starts; SHCOMP
- [Hong Kong](https://convextrade.com/countries/hk): Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), GDP rank #40, next HKMA decision 2026-05-14 (Tracks Fed via linked-rate peg; local conditions transmitted through HIBOR)
  Themes: USD peg and linked rate system; Offshore CNH hub; Stock Connect flows; China IPO listings; Property market pressure
  Watch: HIBOR rates; HKD peg band position; Hang Seng index; Hong Kong property price index; Stock Connect net flows
- [South Korea](https://convextrade.com/countries/kr): Bank of Korea (BoK), South Korean Won (KRW), GDP rank #13, next BoK decision 2026-05-28 (Cut path modulated by housing debt and FX volatility considerations)
  Themes: Semiconductor export cycle; Household debt transmission; Korea discount and Value-Up programme; BoK policy leadership; Chaebol governance
  Watch: BoK base rate; USD/KRW; Samsung/SK Hynix earnings; Korea CPI; KOSPI; Memory chip prices
- [India](https://convextrade.com/countries/in): Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian Rupee (INR), GDP rank #3, next RBI decision 2026-06-05 (Hold with scope to ease if inflation path continues within target band)
  Themes: Demographic dividend; SIP flows and equity financialisation; Services export base; RBI inflation targeting; PLI manufacturing incentives
  Watch: RBI repo rate; USD/INR; India CPI; Nifty 50; SIP net flows; Current account deficit
- [Indonesia](https://convextrade.com/countries/id): Bank Indonesia (BI), Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), GDP rank #16, next BI decision 2026-04-22 (IDR stability the binding constraint on easing pace)
  Themes: Nickel downstreaming; Fiscal deficit ceiling; Commodity export mix; Managed rupiah regime; Demographic tailwind
  Watch: BI rate; USD/IDR; Indonesia CPI; Nickel and coal prices; JCI index
- [Vietnam](https://convextrade.com/countries/vn): State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Vietnamese Đồng (VND), GDP rank #32, next SBV decision 2026-05-15 (Policy calibrated to credit growth and external FX pressures)
  Themes: China-plus-one manufacturing; VND managed float; Property shadow finance; US trade policy scrutiny; FDI-led industrialisation
  Watch: SBV refinancing rate; USD/VND; Vietnam CPI; Manufacturing export growth; FDI commitments
- [Thailand](https://convextrade.com/countries/th): Bank of Thailand (BoT), Thai Baht (THB), GDP rank #26, next BoT decision 2026-04-30 (Policy path balances subdued growth against elevated household debt)
  Themes: Tourism receipts concentration; Automotive manufacturing base; Household debt constraint; Political cycle volatility; BoT inflation target band
  Watch: BoT policy rate; USD/THB; Tourist arrivals; Thailand CPI; SET index
- [Taiwan](https://convextrade.com/countries/tw): Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC), New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), GDP rank #22, next CBC decision 2026-06-18 (Quarterly framework with inflation path within target band)
  Themes: TSMC and semiconductor concentration; Persistent current account surplus; Managed TWD; Cross-Strait risk premium; CHIPS Act redistribution
  Watch: CBC discount rate; USD/TWD; TSMC revenue; Taiwan CPI; TWSE index; Current account share of GDP
- [Singapore](https://convextrade.com/countries/sg): Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore Dollar (SGD), GDP rank #33, next MAS decision 2026-10-14 (Semi-annual NEER slope framework; next review at scheduled meeting)
  Themes: S$NEER policy framework; Regional financial hub; Electronics export cycle; ABSD property cooling regime; Family office inflows
  Watch: SORA rate; S$NEER slope position; Singapore CPI; STI index; Non-oil domestic exports
- [Malaysia](https://convextrade.com/countries/my): Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), GDP rank #38, next BNM decision 2026-05-08 (Hold with MYR stability monitored against regional peers)
  Themes: Petronas fiscal dependence; Manufacturing-commodity mix; Data centre FDI flows; Islamic finance segment; MYR liquidity constraints
  Watch: BNM OPR; USD/MYR; Palm oil prices; Malaysia CPI; KLCI index
- [Australia](https://convextrade.com/countries/au): Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Australian Dollar (AUD), GDP rank #15, next RBA decision 2026-05-06 (Hold bias; services inflation the key hurdle to cuts)
  Themes: Iron ore-China linkage; Variable-rate mortgage transmission; Superannuation asset base; RBA inflation target; Critical minerals exports
  Watch: RBA cash rate; AUD/USD; Iron ore prices; Australia trimmed mean CPI; ASX 200
- [New Zealand](https://convextrade.com/countries/nz): Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), GDP rank #52, next RBNZ decision 2026-05-28 (Cutting cycle underway; pace moderated by housing market resilience)
  Themes: Pioneer of inflation targeting; Dairy-China export link; Australian-owned banking oligopoly; Housing-dominated wealth; RBNZ policy cycle leadership
  Watch: RBNZ OCR; NZD/USD; Dairy whole milk powder prices; New Zealand CPI; NZX 50

### Europe
- [United Kingdom](https://convextrade.com/countries/gb): Bank of England (BoE), British Pound (GBP), GDP rank #6, next BoE decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with gradual cut bias as services inflation moderates)
  Themes: BoE policy trajectory; LDI and gilt stability; Fiscal credibility post-Truss; Services-led cycle; Short-fix mortgage transmission
  Watch: Bank Rate; UK 10Y gilt yield; UK CPI; GBP/USD; UK services PMI
- [Germany](https://convextrade.com/countries/de): European Central Bank (via Bundesbank) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #4, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: Industrial transition post-Russian gas; Schuldenbremse fiscal rule; Export dependency; DAX international revenue mix; Bund risk-free pricing
  Watch: German 10Y bund yield; Ifo business climate; Industrial production; DAX index; EUR/USD
- [France](https://convextrade.com/countries/fr): European Central Bank (via Banque de France) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #7, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: Public spending share; French-German spreads; Nuclear electricity base; Luxury export cycle; Aerospace trade flows
  Watch: OAT-Bund spread; French fiscal deficit; CAC 40; EUR/USD; French services PMI
- [Italy](https://convextrade.com/countries/it): European Central Bank (via Banca d'Italia) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #8, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: Public debt sustainability; BTP-Bund spread dynamics; Demographic decline; Regional north-south divergence; ECB TPI backstop
  Watch: BTP-Bund 10Y spread; Italian fiscal deficit; FTSE MIB; Italian CPI; ECB holdings of BTPs
- [Spain](https://convextrade.com/countries/es): European Central Bank (via Banco de España) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #14, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: EU Next Generation deployment; Tourism cycle; Post-2008 deleveraging; Regional fiscal transfers; Services export strength
  Watch: Spanish 10Y yield; Tourist arrivals; IBEX 35; Spanish unemployment rate; EU funds disbursed
- [Netherlands](https://convextrade.com/countries/nl): European Central Bank (via DNB) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #18, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: ASML and semiconductor export controls; Current account surplus; Pension asset base; Rotterdam logistics hub; Housing-tax interaction
  Watch: Dutch 10Y yield; Semiconductor export orders; AEX index; House price index; Pension funding ratios
- [Switzerland](https://convextrade.com/countries/ch): Swiss National Bank (SNB), Swiss Franc (CHF), GDP rank #20, next SNB decision 2026-06-18 (Hold with CHF strength and imported disinflation in focus)
  Themes: CHF as haven currency; SNB balance sheet interventions; UBS post-Credit Suisse footprint; Structurally low inflation; Pharma export cycle
  Watch: SNB policy rate; CHF/EUR; SNB FX reserves; Swiss CPI; SMI index
- [Sweden](https://convextrade.com/countries/se): Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbank), Swedish Krona (SEK), GDP rank #23, next Riksbank decision 2026-05-07 (Hold bias; housing market recovery the key domestic variable)
  Themes: Floating-rate mortgage transmission; Commercial real estate stress; SEK valuation; Export sensitivity to Europe; Open-economy policy
  Watch: Riksbank policy rate; SEK/EUR; Swedish CPIF; Commercial real estate NAVs; OMXS30
- [Norway](https://convextrade.com/countries/no): Norges Bank (Norges Bank), Norwegian Krone (NOK), GDP rank #30, next Norges Bank decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with NOK weakness tempering the pace of further cuts)
  Themes: Government Pension Fund Global; Fiscal rule discipline; NOK oil correlation; Aquaculture export growth; Imported inflation channel
  Watch: Norges Bank policy rate; Brent oil price; NOK/EUR; Norwegian CPI-ATE; NBIM fund value
- [Denmark](https://convextrade.com/countries/dk): Danmarks Nationalbank (DN), Danish Krone (DKK), GDP rank #37, next DN decision 2026-04-23 (Matches ECB moves to defend the EUR peg framework)
  Themes: ERM II krone peg to euro; Novo Nordisk export dominance; Callable mortgage structure; Long period of negative rates; High household debt
  Watch: DN policy rate; DKK/EUR band position; Novo Nordisk export share; Danish CPI; Mortgage bond yields
- [Greece](https://convextrade.com/countries/gr): European Central Bank (via Bank of Greece) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #52, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: Post-crisis fiscal discipline; Credit rating upgrades; Tourism-led recovery; NPL cleanup programmes; Sovereign yield normalization
  Watch: Greek 10Y yield; Greek primary fiscal balance; Tourist arrivals; ATHEX index; Greek bank NPL ratios
- [Ireland](https://convextrade.com/countries/ie): European Central Bank (via Central Bank of Ireland) (ECB), Euro (EUR), GDP rank #29, next ECB decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
  Themes: Multinational distortion in GDP; Corporate tax receipts; OECD Pillar Two transition; Brexit trade effects; Housing supply shortage
  Watch: Corporate tax receipts; ISEQ index; Irish 10Y yield; Dublin house prices; Multinational employment
- [Poland](https://convextrade.com/countries/pl): Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Polish Złoty (PLN), GDP rank #21, next NBP decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with focus on core inflation persistence and fiscal path)
  Themes: EU convergence growth; Post-2022 defence spending; FX mortgage litigation overhang; German supply chain coupling; Ukraine refugee absorption
  Watch: NBP reference rate; PLN/EUR; Polish CPI; Defence spending share of GDP; WIG20 index
- [Turkey](https://convextrade.com/countries/tr): Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Turkish Lira (TRY), GDP rank #17, next CBRT decision 2026-04-24 (Orthodox framework disinflation path with careful sequencing)
  Themes: Return to orthodox monetary policy; Lira credibility rebuild; KKM unwinding; External financing dependence; NATO-Russia triangulation
  Watch: CBRT policy rate; TRY/USD; Turkish CPI; CBRT net FX reserves; Current account balance
- [Russia](https://convextrade.com/countries/ru): Bank of Russia (CBR), Russian Ruble (RUB), GDP rank #11, next CBR decision 2026-04-24 (Elevated rates sustained by FX stability requirements)
  Themes: Sanctions regime; Oil revenue redirection; Central bank credibility defence; Defence-industrial mobilisation; Shadow fleet operations
  Watch: CBR key rate; RUB/USD; Urals-Brent discount; Russian CPI; National Wealth Fund balance

### Latin America
- [Mexico](https://convextrade.com/countries/mx): Banco de México (Banxico), Mexican Peso (MXN), GDP rank #12, next Banxico decision 2026-05-08 (Incremental cut path contingent on Fed trajectory and MXN stability)
  Themes: USMCA and nearshoring; Carry trade flows; Pemex fiscal overhang; US manufacturing coupling
  Watch: Banxico overnight rate; MXN/USD; Mexico CPI; Remittance flows; US manufacturing PMI
- [Brazil](https://convextrade.com/countries/br): Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), Brazilian Real (BRL), GDP rank #10, next BCB decision 2026-05-07 (Hold after prior cutting cycle; focus on FX pass-through and fiscal risk)
  Themes: Fiscal dominance risk; Commodity export cycle; BCB independence; China demand linkage
  Watch: Selic rate; BRL/USD; Brazilian primary fiscal balance; Iron ore prices; IPCA inflation
- [Argentina](https://convextrade.com/countries/ar): Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Argentine Peso (ARS), GDP rank #24, next BCRA decision 2026-04-17 (Easing path tied to monthly inflation prints and FX regime stability)
  Themes: Inflation regime shift; FX regime transitions; Fiscal consolidation; IMF engagement; Parallel currency market
  Watch: BCRA policy rate; Official vs blue ARS spread; Argentina CPI; Central bank reserves; Sovereign bond spreads
- [Chile](https://convextrade.com/countries/cl): Banco Central de Chile (BCCh), Chilean Peso (CLP), GDP rank #42, next BCCh decision 2026-06-17 (Hold with room to cut if inflation path confirms)
  Themes: Copper export cycle; Institutional credibility; Pension fund flows; Constitutional reform
  Watch: Copper prices; CLP/USD; BCCh policy rate; Chile IPoM; Pension system flows

### Middle East
- [Saudi Arabia](https://convextrade.com/countries/sa): Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), Saudi Riyal (SAR), GDP rank #19, next SAMA decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework)
  Themes: USD peg and imported monetary policy; Vision 2030 and PIF deployment; OPEC+ supply coordination; Fiscal breakeven oil price; MSCI EM inclusion
  Watch: SAMA repo rate; Brent oil price; Saudi fiscal balance; PIF portfolio disclosures; Tadawul index
- [United Arab Emirates](https://convextrade.com/countries/ae): Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), UAE Dirham (AED), GDP rank #31, next CBUAE decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework)
  Themes: USD peg and Fed transmission; Dubai-Abu Dhabi federal split; Expat workforce composition; Corporate tax introduction; Post-Abraham Accords integration
  Watch: CBUAE base rate; Brent oil price; Dubai property price index; Emirates NBD earnings; DFM and ADX indexes
- [Israel](https://convextrade.com/countries/il): Bank of Israel (BoI), Israeli Shekel (ILS), GDP rank #28, next BoI decision 2026-05-26 (Cut path contingent on geopolitical risk premium and inflation persistence)
  Themes: Tech services export dominance; Post-2023 security overhang; Natural gas export pivot; Shekel geopolitical risk premium; BoI policy credibility
  Watch: BoI interest rate; USD/ILS; Israel CPI; High-tech services export growth; TA-125 index

### North America
- [United States](https://convextrade.com/countries/us): Federal Reserve (Fed), US Dollar (USD), GDP rank #1, next Fed decision 2026-05-14 (Hold, with debate on timing of first cut shifting toward Q3)
  Themes: Federal Reserve policy; Treasury yield curve; Dollar cycle; Fiscal trajectory; Labor market tightness
  Watch: Core PCE inflation; Non-farm payrolls; Unemployment rate; 10Y Treasury yield; DXY dollar index; High-yield credit spreads
- [Canada](https://convextrade.com/countries/ca): Bank of Canada (BoC), Canadian Dollar (CAD), GDP rank #9, next BoC decision 2026-04-22 (Hold, with debate on further cut timing as housing debt-service ratios peak)
  Themes: Oil-linked export economy; Household debt and mortgage resets; BoC rate path; Commodity currency dynamics
  Watch: WCS-WTI differential; BoC overnight rate; Canada 10Y yield; Household debt-service ratio; CAD/USD

## Central Banks Directory

- Banco de México (Banxico), Mexico: Mexican Peso (MXN), next decision 2026-05-08 (Incremental cut path contingent on Fed trajectory and MXN stability)
- Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), Brazil: Brazilian Real (BRL), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold after prior cutting cycle; focus on FX pass-through and fiscal risk)
- Banco Central de Chile (BCCh), Chile: Chilean Peso (CLP), next decision 2026-06-17 (Hold with room to cut if inflation path confirms)
- Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Argentina: Argentine Peso (ARS), next decision 2026-04-17 (Easing path tied to monthly inflation prints and FX regime stability)
- Bank Indonesia (BI), Indonesia: Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), next decision 2026-04-22 (IDR stability the binding constraint on easing pace)
- Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), Malaysia: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), next decision 2026-05-08 (Hold with MYR stability monitored against regional peers)
- Bank of Canada (BoC), Canada: Canadian Dollar (CAD), next decision 2026-04-22 (Hold, with debate on further cut timing as housing debt-service ratios peak)
- Bank of England (BoE), United Kingdom: British Pound (GBP), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with gradual cut bias as services inflation moderates)
- Bank of Israel (BoI), Israel: Israeli Shekel (ILS), next decision 2026-05-26 (Cut path contingent on geopolitical risk premium and inflation persistence)
- Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japan: Japanese Yen (JPY), next decision 2026-04-30 (Gradual normalization path with pace calibrated to JPY stability and wage data)
- Bank of Korea (BoK), South Korea: South Korean Won (KRW), next decision 2026-05-28 (Cut path modulated by housing debt and FX volatility considerations)
- Bank of Thailand (BoT), Thailand: Thai Baht (THB), next decision 2026-04-30 (Policy path balances subdued growth against elevated household debt)
- Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC), Taiwan: New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), next decision 2026-06-18 (Quarterly framework with inflation path within target band)
- Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), Egypt: Egyptian Pound (EGP), next decision 2026-05-21 (High-rate regime sustained until inflation path stabilises)
- Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria: Nigerian Naira (NGN), next decision 2026-05-20 (Continued tight stance to defend NGN and anchor inflation expectations)
- Bank of Russia (CBR), Russia: Russian Ruble (RUB), next decision 2026-04-24 (Elevated rates sustained by FX stability requirements)
- Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Turkey: Turkish Lira (TRY), next decision 2026-04-24 (Orthodox framework disinflation path with careful sequencing)
- Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), United Arab Emirates: UAE Dirham (AED), next decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework)
- Danmarks Nationalbank (DN), Denmark: Danish Krone (DKK), next decision 2026-04-23 (Matches ECB moves to defend the EUR peg framework)
- European Central Bank (via Bundesbank) (ECB), Germany: Euro (EUR), next decision 2026-04-23 (ECB hold with debate on terminal rate; core inflation path closely watched)
- Federal Reserve (Fed), United States: US Dollar (USD), next decision 2026-05-14 (Hold, with debate on timing of first cut shifting toward Q3)
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Hong Kong: Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), next decision 2026-05-14 (Tracks Fed via linked-rate peg; local conditions transmitted through HIBOR)
- Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Singapore: Singapore Dollar (SGD), next decision 2026-10-14 (Semi-annual NEER slope framework; next review at scheduled meeting)
- Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Poland: Polish Złoty (PLN), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with focus on core inflation persistence and fiscal path)
- Norges Bank (Norges Bank), Norway: Norwegian Krone (NOK), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold with NOK weakness tempering the pace of further cuts)
- People's Bank of China (PBoC), China: Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) (CNY), next decision 2026-04-21 (LPR stance anchored by growth targets and currency stability requirements)
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Australia: Australian Dollar (AUD), next decision 2026-05-06 (Hold bias; services inflation the key hurdle to cuts)
- Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India: Indian Rupee (INR), next decision 2026-06-05 (Hold with scope to ease if inflation path continues within target band)
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), New Zealand: New Zealand Dollar (NZD), next decision 2026-05-28 (Cutting cycle underway; pace moderated by housing market resilience)
- Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbank), Sweden: Swedish Krona (SEK), next decision 2026-05-07 (Hold bias; housing market recovery the key domestic variable)
- Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), Saudi Arabia: Saudi Riyal (SAR), next decision 2026-05-14 (Follows Fed via USD peg framework)
- South African Reserve Bank (SARB), South Africa: South African Rand (ZAR), next decision 2026-05-28 (Cautious easing path; ZAR volatility the binding constraint)
- State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Vietnam: Vietnamese Đồng (VND), next decision 2026-05-15 (Policy calibrated to credit growth and external FX pressures)
- Swiss National Bank (SNB), Switzerland: Swiss Franc (CHF), next decision 2026-06-18 (Hold with CHF strength and imported disinflation in focus)

## Today's Indicators (142 featured-snippet landing pages with live readings)

Each entry below is a first-sentence answer suitable for direct citation by AI search engines.
Attribution: "Data by Convex Research Desk, convextrade.com" is required when lifting these values.

### Commodities
- [Gold Price](https://convextrade.com/today/gold-price): Live data for Gold Price loading. Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge. (target query: "gold price today")
- [WTI Crude Oil Price](https://convextrade.com/today/oil-price): Live data for WTI Crude Oil Price loading. West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price, the North American benchmark. (target query: "oil price today")
- [Brent Crude Oil Price](https://convextrade.com/today/brent-crude-oil-price): Live data for Brent Crude Oil Price loading. Brent crude spot price, the international oil benchmark used for two-thirds of global pricing. (target query: "brent crude oil price today")
- [Natural Gas Price](https://convextrade.com/today/natural-gas-price): Live data for Natural Gas Price loading. Henry Hub natural gas spot price, the North American benchmark for gas markets. (target query: "natural gas price today")
- [Gold ETF (GLD)](https://convextrade.com/today/gold-etf): Live data for Gold ETF (GLD) loading. SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the largest gold-backed ETF for tracking spot gold performance. (target query: "gold etf price today")
- [Copper Price](https://convextrade.com/today/copper-price): Live data for Copper Price loading. Global copper price, the "Dr. Copper" bellwether for industrial activity and global growth. (target query: "copper price today")
- [Global Commodity Price Index](https://convextrade.com/today/commodity-price-index): Live data for Global Commodity Price Index loading. IMF/World Bank all-commodity price index, the broadest gauge of raw materials inflation. (target query: "commodity price index today")
- [Homebuilder Stocks](https://convextrade.com/today/homebuilder-stocks): Live data for Homebuilder Stocks loading. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, tracking housing-related equities. (target query: "homebuilder stocks today")

### Credit
- [High-Yield Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/high-yield-spread): Live data for High-Yield Credit Spread loading. ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk. (target query: "high yield spread today")
- [Investment-Grade Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/investment-grade-spread): Live data for Investment-Grade Credit Spread loading. ICE BofA Investment-Grade OAS, the cost of corporate credit vs Treasuries. (target query: "investment grade spread today")
- [BBB Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/bbb-credit-spread): Live data for BBB Credit Spread loading. BBB-rated corporate bond spread, the threshold between investment grade and junk. (target query: "bbb spread today")
- [High-Yield Effective Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/high-yield-effective-yield): Live data for High-Yield Effective Yield loading. ICE BofA High-Yield effective yield, the all-in return demanded by junk bond investors. (target query: "high yield bond yield today")
- [Financial Stress Index](https://convextrade.com/today/financial-stress-index): Live data for Financial Stress Index loading. St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, a composite of 18 market stress signals. (target query: "financial stress index today")
- [Credit Card Delinquency Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/credit-card-delinquency-rate): Live data for Credit Card Delinquency Rate loading. Credit card loan delinquency rate at commercial banks, tracking consumer financial distress. (target query: "credit card delinquency rate today")
- [Bank Lending Standards (C&I)](https://convextrade.com/today/bank-lending-standards): Live data for Bank Lending Standards (C&I) loading. Net percentage of banks tightening standards for C&I loans, from the Senior Loan Officer Survey. (target query: "bank lending standards today")
- [Regional Bank Stocks](https://convextrade.com/today/regional-bank-stocks): Live data for Regional Bank Stocks loading. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, the barometer for regional bank health. (target query: "regional bank stocks today")

### Crypto
- [Bitcoin Price](https://convextrade.com/today/bitcoin-price): Live data for Bitcoin Price loading. Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer. (target query: "bitcoin price today")
- [Ethereum Price](https://convextrade.com/today/ethereum-price): Live data for Ethereum Price loading. Ethereum spot price, the leading smart-contract platform token. (target query: "ethereum price today")
- [Fear & Greed Index](https://convextrade.com/today/fear-and-greed-index): Live data for Fear & Greed Index loading. Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a composite sentiment measure from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). (target query: "fear and greed index today")

### Economy
- [Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/today/gdp-growth-rate): Live data for Real GDP loading. Real gross domestic product, the headline measure of US economic output. (target query: "gdp growth rate today")
- [Atlanta Fed GDPNow](https://convextrade.com/today/gdpnow): Live data for Atlanta Fed GDPNow loading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow real-time GDP estimate, the most-watched nowcast of current-quarter growth. (target query: "gdpnow today")
- [Consumer Sentiment](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-sentiment): Live data for Consumer Sentiment loading. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, a leading gauge of spending intentions. (target query: "consumer sentiment today")
- [Retail Sales](https://convextrade.com/today/retail-sales): Live data for Retail Sales loading. Advance retail sales excluding food services, the primary monthly consumer spending indicator. (target query: "retail sales today")
- [Industrial Production](https://convextrade.com/today/industrial-production): Live data for Industrial Production loading. Fed industrial production index, the broadest monthly output measure for factories and mines. (target query: "industrial production today")
- [Housing Starts](https://convextrade.com/today/housing-starts): Live data for Housing Starts loading. New residential construction starts (SAAR), the primary gauge of homebuilding activity. (target query: "housing starts today")
- [Building Permits](https://convextrade.com/today/building-permits): Live data for Building Permits loading. New privately-owned housing units authorized, a leading indicator of future construction. (target query: "building permits today")
- [New Home Sales](https://convextrade.com/today/new-home-sales): Live data for New Home Sales loading. Sales of new single-family homes (SAAR), a forward-looking housing demand signal. (target query: "new home sales today")
- [Case-Shiller Home Price Index](https://convextrade.com/today/case-shiller-home-price-index): Live data for Case-Shiller Home Price Index loading. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, the gold standard for house prices. (target query: "case shiller home price index today")
- [Durable Goods Orders](https://convextrade.com/today/durable-goods-orders): Live data for Durable Goods Orders loading. New orders for manufactured durable goods, a gauge of business investment intentions. (target query: "durable goods orders today")
- [Capacity Utilization](https://convextrade.com/today/capacity-utilization): Live data for Capacity Utilization loading. Industrial capacity utilization rate, signaling how much slack remains in the economy. (target query: "capacity utilization today")
- [Personal Saving Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/personal-saving-rate): Live data for Personal Saving Rate loading. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, a gauge of consumer financial health. (target query: "personal saving rate today")
- [Total Consumer Credit](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-credit): Live data for Total Consumer Credit loading. Total outstanding consumer credit, tracking household borrowing for spending. (target query: "consumer credit today")
- [Auto Sales](https://convextrade.com/today/auto-sales): Live data for Auto Sales loading. Total vehicle sales (SAAR), a high-frequency signal for consumer big-ticket spending. (target query: "auto sales today")
- [Leading Economic Index](https://convextrade.com/today/leading-economic-index): Live data for Leading Economic Index loading. Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a composite of ten forward-looking indicators. (target query: "leading economic index today")
- [US Trade Balance](https://convextrade.com/today/trade-balance): Live data for US Trade Balance loading. US balance on goods and services trade, the headline measure of external deficits. (target query: "us trade balance today")
- [Corporate Profits After Tax](https://convextrade.com/today/corporate-profits): Live data for Corporate Profits After Tax loading. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation adjustments. (target query: "corporate profits today")
- [NAHB Housing Market Index](https://convextrade.com/today/nahb-housing-market-index): Live data for NAHB Housing Market Index loading. National Association of Home Builders sentiment index, the builder confidence barometer. (target query: "nahb housing market index today")
- [NY Fed GSCPI](https://convextrade.com/today/global-supply-chain-pressure): Live data for NY Fed GSCPI loading. NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, tracking cross-border logistics stress. (target query: "global supply chain pressure index today")
- [Financial Conditions (NFCI)](https://convextrade.com/today/financial-conditions-index): Live data for Financial Conditions (NFCI) loading. Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, a broad gauge of US financial tightness. (target query: "financial conditions index today")

### Employment
- [Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/unemployment-rate): Live data for Unemployment Rate loading. The headline U3 unemployment rate, percentage of the labor force without jobs. (target query: "unemployment rate today")
- [Initial Jobless Claims](https://convextrade.com/today/initial-jobless-claims): Live data for Initial Jobless Claims loading. Weekly first-time unemployment insurance claims, the highest-frequency labor indicator. (target query: "initial jobless claims today")
- [Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/today/nonfarm-payrolls): Live data for Nonfarm Payrolls loading. Total nonfarm employment change, the single most-watched US jobs report figure. (target query: "nonfarm payrolls today")
- [JOLTS Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/today/job-openings): Live data for JOLTS Job Openings loading. JOLTS job openings, a key measure of labor demand and the jobs-workers gap. (target query: "jolts job openings today")
- [JOLTS Quit Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/quits-rate): Live data for JOLTS Quit Rate loading. JOLTS voluntary quits rate, a signal of worker confidence in the labor market. (target query: "quits rate today")
- [U6 Underemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/u6-unemployment-rate): Live data for U6 Underemployment Rate loading. The broadest official unemployment measure, including part-time for economic reasons. (target query: "u6 unemployment rate today")
- [Labor Force Participation Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/labor-force-participation-rate): Live data for Labor Force Participation Rate loading. Share of working-age population in the labor force, a structural supply indicator. (target query: "labor force participation rate today")
- [Average Hourly Earnings](https://convextrade.com/today/average-hourly-earnings): Live data for Average Hourly Earnings loading. Average hourly earnings for all private employees, the primary wage growth indicator. (target query: "average hourly earnings today")
- [Continuing Jobless Claims](https://convextrade.com/today/continuing-jobless-claims): Live data for Continuing Jobless Claims loading. Insured unemployment continuing claims, tracking how long displaced workers stay jobless. (target query: "continuing claims today")
- [Sahm Rule Indicator](https://convextrade.com/today/sahm-rule-recession-indicator): Live data for Sahm Rule Indicator loading. The Sahm Rule recession indicator, triggered when unemployment rises 0.5pp from its 12-month low. (target query: "sahm rule today")
- [Employment-Population Ratio](https://convextrade.com/today/employment-population-ratio): Live data for Employment-Population Ratio loading. Share of working-age population currently employed, a broad labor utilization measure. (target query: "employment population ratio today")
- [UK Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/uk-unemployment-rate): Live data for UK Unemployment Rate loading. UK unemployment rate, the headline labour market indicator for the Bank of England. (target query: "uk unemployment rate today")
- [Eurozone Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/eurozone-unemployment-rate): Live data for Eurozone Unemployment Rate loading. Eurozone harmonised unemployment rate, tracking joblessness across the currency bloc. (target query: "eurozone unemployment rate today")
- [Canada Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-unemployment-rate): Live data for Canada Unemployment Rate loading. Canadian unemployment rate, a key input for Bank of Canada policy decisions. (target query: "canada unemployment rate today")

### FX
- [US Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/today/dollar-index): Live data for US Dollar Index loading. Broad trade-weighted US dollar index, measures dollar strength vs major trading partners. (target query: "dollar index today")
- [EUR/USD](https://convextrade.com/today/eur-usd-exchange-rate): Live data for EUR/USD loading. Euro to US dollar exchange rate, the world's most traded currency pair. (target query: "eur usd exchange rate today")
- [USD/JPY](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-jpy-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/JPY loading. US dollar to Japanese yen, driven by the rate differential between Fed and BoJ. (target query: "usd jpy exchange rate today")
- [GBP/USD](https://convextrade.com/today/gbp-usd-exchange-rate): Live data for GBP/USD loading. British pound to US dollar, the "cable" rate tracking UK-US monetary divergence. (target query: "gbp usd exchange rate today")
- [USD/CNY](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-cny-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/CNY loading. US dollar to Chinese yuan, the managed exchange rate reflecting PBoC policy. (target query: "usd cny exchange rate today")
- [USD/CAD](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-cad-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/CAD loading. US dollar to Canadian dollar, the "loonie" rate driven by oil and BoC policy. (target query: "usd cad exchange rate today")
- [USD/MXN](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-mxn-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/MXN loading. US dollar to Mexican peso, influenced by Banxico rates and nearshoring flows. (target query: "usd mxn exchange rate today")
- [USD/BRL](https://convextrade.com/today/usd-brl-exchange-rate): Live data for USD/BRL loading. US dollar to Brazilian real, reflecting Latin American carry trade dynamics. (target query: "usd brl exchange rate today")
- [EUR/GBP](https://convextrade.com/today/eur-gbp-exchange-rate): Live data for EUR/GBP loading. Euro to British pound cross rate, tracking ECB-BoE policy divergence. (target query: "eur gbp exchange rate today")
- [EM Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/today/em-dollar-index): Live data for EM Dollar Index loading. Trade-weighted dollar index against emerging-market currencies. (target query: "emerging market dollar index today")
- [Real Effective Exchange Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/real-effective-exchange-rate): Live data for Real Effective Exchange Rate loading. BIS real effective exchange rate for the US dollar, inflation-adjusted trade-weighted measure. (target query: "real effective exchange rate today")
- [Dollar Strength (UUP)](https://convextrade.com/today/dxy): Live data for Dollar Strength (UUP) loading. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, a tradeable proxy for dollar strength. (target query: "dxy today")

### Inflation
- [CPI Inflation Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/cpi-inflation-rate): Live data for CPI Inflation Rate loading. Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge. (target query: "cpi inflation rate today")
- [Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/today/core-pce): Live data for Core PCE loading. Core PCE excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. (target query: "core pce today")
- [Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/today/core-cpi): Live data for Core CPI loading. Core CPI excluding food and energy, the standard measure of underlying consumer price inflation. (target query: "core cpi today")
- [PCE Price Index](https://convextrade.com/today/pce-price-index): Live data for PCE Price Index loading. Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the broadest consumer inflation measure. (target query: "pce price index today")
- [PPI Inflation Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/ppi-inflation-rate): Live data for PPI Inflation Rate loading. Producer Price Index for final demand, a leading signal for consumer inflation. (target query: "ppi today")
- [5-Year Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/today/5-year-breakeven-inflation): Live data for 5-Year Breakeven Inflation loading. 5-year breakeven inflation rate derived from TIPS, the market-implied inflation forecast. (target query: "5 year breakeven inflation rate today")
- [10-Year Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/today/10-year-breakeven-inflation): Live data for 10-Year Breakeven Inflation loading. 10-year breakeven inflation rate, the bond market consensus on decade-ahead price growth. (target query: "10 year breakeven inflation rate today")
- [5Y5Y Forward Inflation](https://convextrade.com/today/5y5y-forward-inflation): Live data for 5Y5Y Forward Inflation loading. 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate, the Fed's preferred gauge of anchored expectations. (target query: "5y5y forward inflation rate today")
- [CPI: Rent of Shelter](https://convextrade.com/today/shelter-inflation): Live data for CPI: Rent of Shelter loading. CPI rent of shelter component, the stickiest and largest weight in the CPI basket. (target query: "shelter inflation today")
- [Michigan Inflation Expectations](https://convextrade.com/today/michigan-inflation-expectations): Live data for Michigan Inflation Expectations loading. University of Michigan consumer survey 1-year ahead inflation expectations. (target query: "michigan inflation expectations today")
- [CPI: Energy](https://convextrade.com/today/energy-inflation): Live data for CPI: Energy loading. CPI energy component, the most volatile contributor to headline inflation swings. (target query: "energy inflation today")
- [CPI: Food](https://convextrade.com/today/food-inflation): Live data for CPI: Food loading. CPI food component tracking grocery and restaurant price changes. (target query: "food inflation today")
- [UK CPI](https://convextrade.com/today/uk-inflation-rate): Live data for UK CPI loading. UK Consumer Price Index, the headline inflation measure for the Bank of England. (target query: "uk inflation rate today")
- [Eurozone HICP](https://convextrade.com/today/eurozone-inflation): Live data for Eurozone HICP loading. Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the headline inflation gauge for ECB policy. (target query: "eurozone inflation rate today")
- [Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast](https://convextrade.com/today/cleveland-fed-cpi-nowcast): Live data for Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast loading. Cleveland Fed real-time CPI nowcast for the current month, updated daily. (target query: "cleveland fed cpi nowcast today")
- [Canada CPI](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-cpi): Live data for Canada CPI loading. Canadian Consumer Price Index year-over-year, the headline inflation print for BoC policy. (target query: "canada cpi today")

### Markets
- [S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/today/sp500): Live data for S&P 500 loading. SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracking the benchmark US large-cap equity index. (target query: "sp500 today")
- [Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/today/nasdaq): Live data for Nasdaq 100 loading. Invesco QQQ tracking the Nasdaq 100, the tech-heavy growth benchmark. (target query: "nasdaq today")
- [VIX Index](https://convextrade.com/today/vix): Live data for VIX Index loading. CBOE Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" measuring S&P 500 expected volatility. (target query: "vix today")
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://convextrade.com/today/dow-jones): Live data for Dow Jones Industrial Average loading. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, tracking the blue-chip 30 price-weighted index. (target query: "dow jones today")
- [Russell 2000](https://convextrade.com/today/russell-2000): Live data for Russell 2000 loading. iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the primary US small-cap equity benchmark. (target query: "russell 2000 today")
- [Equal-Weight S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/today/equal-weight-sp500): Live data for Equal-Weight S&P 500 loading. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, measuring breadth without mega-cap concentration. (target query: "equal weight sp500 today")
- [Semiconductor Index](https://convextrade.com/today/semiconductors): Live data for Semiconductor Index loading. VanEck Semiconductor ETF, tracking the AI-driven chip cycle. (target query: "semiconductor stocks today")
- [Emerging Markets](https://convextrade.com/today/emerging-markets): Live data for Emerging Markets loading. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the broad EM equity benchmark. (target query: "emerging markets today")
- [FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/today/ftse-100): Live data for FTSE 100 loading. FTSE 100 index, the headline equity benchmark for the London Stock Exchange. (target query: "ftse 100 today")
- [DAX 40](https://convextrade.com/today/dax-40): Live data for DAX 40 loading. DAX 40 index, the primary equity benchmark for the German stock market. (target query: "dax today")
- [Euro Stoxx 50](https://convextrade.com/today/euro-stoxx-50): Live data for Euro Stoxx 50 loading. Euro Stoxx 50, the leading eurozone blue-chip equity index. (target query: "euro stoxx 50 today")
- [Japan Equities (EWJ)](https://convextrade.com/today/nikkei-225): Live data for Japan Equities (EWJ) loading. iShares MSCI Japan ETF, tracking Japanese large-cap equities. (target query: "nikkei today")
- [China Large-Cap (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/today/china-stocks): Live data for China Large-Cap (FXI) loading. iShares China Large-Cap ETF, tracking the 50 largest Chinese companies. (target query: "china stocks today")
- [Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/today/fed-balance-sheet): Live data for Fed Balance Sheet loading. Total assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the headline measure of QE/QT. (target query: "fed balance sheet today")
- [M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/today/m2-money-supply): Live data for M2 Money Supply loading. M2 money supply, the broadest commonly tracked measure of dollars in circulation. (target query: "m2 money supply today")
- [Overnight Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/today/reverse-repo): Live data for Overnight Reverse Repo loading. Overnight reverse repurchase facility balance, a key gauge of excess liquidity. (target query: "reverse repo today")
- [Treasury General Account](https://convextrade.com/today/treasury-general-account): Live data for Treasury General Account loading. The Treasury's checking account at the Fed, a driver of near-term liquidity flows. (target query: "treasury general account today")
- [VSTOXX](https://convextrade.com/today/vstoxx): Live data for VSTOXX loading. Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index, the European equivalent of the VIX. (target query: "vstoxx today")
- [MOVE Index](https://convextrade.com/today/move-index): Live data for MOVE Index loading. ICE BofA MOVE Index, the "VIX for bonds" measuring Treasury market volatility. (target query: "move index today")
- [FINRA Margin Debt](https://convextrade.com/today/margin-debt): Live data for FINRA Margin Debt loading. FINRA member margin debt outstanding, a gauge of leveraged equity market speculation. (target query: "margin debt today")
- [Technology Sector (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/today/technology-sector): Live data for Technology Sector (XLK) loading. Technology Select Sector SPDR, tracking the largest US tech stocks. (target query: "technology sector today")
- [Financial Sector (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/today/financial-sector): Live data for Financial Sector (XLF) loading. Financial Select Sector SPDR, tracking US banks, insurers, and asset managers. (target query: "financial sector today")
- [Energy Sector (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/today/energy-sector): Live data for Energy Sector (XLE) loading. Energy Select Sector SPDR, tracking US oil, gas, and energy companies. (target query: "energy sector today")
- [Healthcare Sector (XLV)](https://convextrade.com/today/healthcare-sector): Live data for Healthcare Sector (XLV) loading. Health Care Select Sector SPDR, tracking US pharma, biotech, and health services. (target query: "healthcare sector today")
- [Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-discretionary-sector): Live data for Consumer Discretionary (XLY) loading. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, the cyclical consumer spending barometer. (target query: "consumer discretionary sector today")
- [Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/today/consumer-staples-sector): Live data for Consumer Staples (XLP) loading. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the defensive essentials benchmark. (target query: "consumer staples sector today")
- [Utilities Sector (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/today/utilities-sector): Live data for Utilities Sector (XLU) loading. Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the rate-sensitive defensive yield play. (target query: "utilities sector today")
- [Industrials Sector (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/today/industrials-sector): Live data for Industrials Sector (XLI) loading. Industrial Select Sector SPDR, tracking manufacturers, defense, and transportation. (target query: "industrials sector today")
- [Real Estate Sector (XLRE)](https://convextrade.com/today/real-estate-sector): Live data for Real Estate Sector (XLRE) loading. Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, tracking REITs and real estate companies. (target query: "real estate sector today")
- [Materials Sector (XLB)](https://convextrade.com/today/materials-sector): Live data for Materials Sector (XLB) loading. Freeport-McMoRan, the largest US-listed copper miner and materials bellwether. (target query: "materials sector today")
- [Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/today/communication-services-sector): Live data for Communication Services (XLC) loading. Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, tracking Meta, Alphabet, and telcos. (target query: "communication services sector today")
- [Put/Call Ratio](https://convextrade.com/today/put-call-ratio): Live data for Put/Call Ratio loading. CBOE equity put/call ratio, a contrarian sentiment indicator for US stock markets. (target query: "put call ratio today")
- [CFTC S&P 500 Net Speculative](https://convextrade.com/today/cftc-sp500-positioning): Live data for CFTC S&P 500 Net Speculative loading. CFTC Commitments of Traders net speculative positions in S&P 500 futures. (target query: "cftc sp500 positioning today")

### Rates
- [Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/federal-funds-rate): Live data for Federal Funds Rate loading. The effective federal funds rate, the primary tool of US monetary policy. (target query: "federal funds rate today")
- [10-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/10-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 10-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 10-year US Treasury notes, the global risk-free benchmark. (target query: "10 year treasury yield today")
- [2-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/2-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 2-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 2-year US Treasury notes, the key Fed expectations proxy. (target query: "2 year treasury yield today")
- [30-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/30-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 30-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds, the longest-duration sovereign benchmark. (target query: "30 year treasury yield today")
- [5-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/5-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 5-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 5-year US Treasury notes, the belly of the curve and key mortgage reference. (target query: "5 year treasury yield today")
- [1-Year Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/1-year-treasury-yield): Live data for 1-Year Treasury Yield loading. Yield on 1-year US Treasury bills, a proxy for short-term rate expectations. (target query: "1 year treasury yield today")
- [3-Month Treasury Bill Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/3-month-treasury-bill-rate): Live data for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate loading. Yield on 3-month Treasury bills, the shortest major sovereign benchmark. (target query: "3 month treasury bill rate today")
- [30-Year Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/30-year-mortgage-rate): Live data for 30-Year Mortgage Rate loading. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the primary driver of housing affordability. (target query: "30 year mortgage rate today")
- [10Y-2Y Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/today/yield-curve): Live data for 10Y-2Y Yield Spread loading. 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, the classic recession signal when inverted. (target query: "yield curve today")
- [10-Year Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/today/10-year-real-yield): Live data for 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) loading. 10-year TIPS yield, the key driver for gold, crypto, and long-duration assets. (target query: "10 year real yield today")
- [5-Year Real Yield (TIPS)](https://convextrade.com/today/5-year-real-yield): Live data for 5-Year Real Yield (TIPS) loading. 5-year TIPS yield, a core input to real rate models and gold valuation. (target query: "5 year real yield today")
- [SOFR Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/sofr-rate): Live data for SOFR Rate loading. Secured Overnight Financing Rate, the benchmark replacing LIBOR for trillions in derivatives. (target query: "sofr rate today")
- [Effective Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/effective-federal-funds-rate): Live data for Effective Federal Funds Rate loading. The actual rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of federal funds. (target query: "effective federal funds rate today")
- [Bank Prime Loan Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/prime-rate): Live data for Bank Prime Loan Rate loading. Prime rate charged by commercial banks, the benchmark for consumer and business loans. (target query: "prime rate today")
- [10-Year Term Premium](https://convextrade.com/today/term-premium): Live data for 10-Year Term Premium loading. ACM model estimate of the 10-year term premium, the compensation for holding long bonds. (target query: "term premium today")
- [Fed Funds Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/fed-funds-target-rate): Live data for Fed Funds Target Rate loading. Upper bound of the FOMC target range for the federal funds rate. (target query: "fed funds target rate today")
- [ECB Deposit Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/ecb-interest-rate): Live data for ECB Deposit Rate loading. European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the main policy rate for the eurozone. (target query: "ecb interest rate today")
- [Bank of England Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/boe-interest-rate): Live data for Bank of England Rate loading. Bank of England official bank rate, the primary monetary policy tool for the UK. (target query: "bank of england interest rate today")
- [Germany 10-Year Bund Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/germany-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Germany 10-Year Bund Yield loading. Yield on 10-year German government bonds, the eurozone risk-free benchmark. (target query: "germany 10 year bond yield today")
- [UK 10-Year Gilt Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/uk-10-year-gilt-yield): Live data for UK 10-Year Gilt Yield loading. Yield on 10-year UK government gilts, the primary sterling fixed-income benchmark. (target query: "uk gilt yield today")
- [Italy 10-Year BTP Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/italy-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Italy 10-Year BTP Yield loading. Italian 10-year government bond (BTP) yield, the gauge of eurozone peripheral risk. (target query: "italy 10 year bond yield today")
- [Japan 10-Year JGB Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/japan-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Japan 10-Year JGB Yield loading. Japanese 10-year government bond yield, closely watched for BoJ yield curve control shifts. (target query: "japan 10 year bond yield today")
- [Bank of Canada Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-interest-rate): Live data for Bank of Canada Rate loading. Bank of Canada overnight rate target, the primary monetary policy tool for Canada. (target query: "bank of canada interest rate today")
- [Bank of Japan Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/boj-interest-rate): Live data for Bank of Japan Rate loading. Bank of Japan overnight call rate target, the anchor of Japanese monetary policy. (target query: "bank of japan interest rate today")
- [Swiss National Bank Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/snb-interest-rate): Live data for Swiss National Bank Rate loading. Swiss National Bank policy rate, the anchor of Swiss franc monetary policy. (target query: "snb interest rate today")
- [EURIBOR 3-Month](https://convextrade.com/today/euribor-rate): Live data for EURIBOR 3-Month loading. 3-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate, the benchmark for eurozone short-term lending. (target query: "euribor rate today")
- [Canada 10-Year Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/today/canada-10-year-bond-yield): Live data for Canada 10-Year Bond Yield loading. Canadian 10-year government bond yield, the key fixed-income benchmark north of the border. (target query: "canada 10 year bond yield today")
- [RBA Cash Rate](https://convextrade.com/today/australia-interest-rate): Live data for RBA Cash Rate loading. Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target, the primary monetary policy tool for Australia. (target query: "rba interest rate today")

## Historical Macro Events (34 archived events)

### Deflation Regime
- [1982 Latin American Debt Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/1982-latam-debt-crisis), August 1982 – 1989: Mexico defaulted on its external debt in August 1982, triggering a seven-year crisis that engulfed Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and most of Latin America. The "lost decade" reshaped emerging market finance.
- [1990 Japanese Bubble Collapse](https://convextrade.com/history/1990-japan-bubble-burst), January 1990 – 2003: The Nikkei 225 peaked at 38,957 on December 29, 1989, then fell 82% over 13 years. Japan entered its "lost decades" of deflation, zero rates, and structural stagnation that still shapes global markets today.
- [1997 Asian Financial Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/1997-asian-financial-crisis), July 1997 – 1998: Thailand's forced devaluation of the baht on July 2, 1997 triggered contagion across Southeast Asia. Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia saw currency collapses, sovereign debt crises, and economic contractions of 10-15%.
- [1998 LTCM Collapse & Russia Default](https://convextrade.com/history/1998-ltcm-russia-default), August – October 1998: Russia's default on August 17, 1998 blew up Long-Term Capital Management, which had $125 billion of assets on $4.7 billion of equity. The Fed orchestrated a private bailout to prevent systemic contagion.
- [2000 Dotcom Crash](https://convextrade.com/history/2000-dotcom-crash), March 2000 – October 2002: The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048 on March 10, 2000 and fell 78% over 31 months. Internet companies went bankrupt en masse. The crash reshaped venture capital, corporate governance, and accounting standards.
- [2008 Financial Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2008-financial-crisis), September 2007 – March 2009: The 2008 Financial Crisis remains the deepest and most instructive market event of the 21st century. Subprime losses cascaded through leveraged balance sheets, froze interbank lending, and forced unprecedented central bank intervention.
- [2010 European Sovereign Debt Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2010-european-debt-crisis), April 2010 – July 2012: Greece's debt revelation in October 2009 triggered a multi-year eurozone crisis that threatened the euro's survival. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy required emergency support. Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" in 2012 ended the acute phase.
- [2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse](https://convextrade.com/history/2014-oil-collapse), June 2014 – February 2016: Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
- [2020 COVID Crash & Recovery](https://convextrade.com/history/2020-covid-crash), February–April 2020: The fastest 30%+ decline in S&P 500 history, followed by the fastest recovery. COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented monetary and fiscal intervention.

### Goldilocks Regime
- [1998 Euro Launch & 1999 Introduction](https://convextrade.com/history/1998-euro-launch), May 1998 – January 2002: Eleven European Union members locked exchange rates on January 1, 1999, creating the euro as a virtual currency. Physical notes and coins circulated from January 1, 2002. The euro became the largest monetary experiment since Bretton Woods.
- [2006 US Housing Market Peak](https://convextrade.com/history/2006-housing-peak), June 2006 – February 2007: US home prices peaked in summer 2006 after a 106% rally from 2000. Subprime mortgage underwriting collapsed in late 2006, setting up the 2008 crisis. The peak is the canonical example of a market top visible only in retrospect.
- [2010 Flash Crash](https://convextrade.com/history/2010-flash-crash), May 6, 2010: On May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1,000 points in minutes before recovering. The Flash Crash exposed the fragility of modern electronic market structure.
- [2016 Brexit Vote](https://convextrade.com/history/2016-brexit), June 23–24, 2016: The UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016. The pound fell 10% overnight, its largest single-day drop since floating in 1971.
- [2018 Volmageddon (XIV Collapse)](https://convextrade.com/history/2018-volmageddon), February 5, 2018: On February 5, 2018, the VIX doubled intraday, the largest single-day VIX move ever. Short-volatility ETNs lost 90% of their value, and the XIV was terminated.
- [2019 September Repo Market Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2019-repo-crisis), September 16-17, 2019: Overnight repo rates spiked from 2% to 10% on September 17, 2019, forcing the Fed to intervene with its first open market operations since 2008. The episode revealed structural strains in US money markets that persisted into 2020.

### Mixed Regime
- [1987 Black Monday](https://convextrade.com/history/1987-black-monday), October 19, 1987: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6% on October 19, 1987, the largest single-day percentage decline in history. Portfolio insurance and program trading amplified the crash.
- [2011 US Debt Ceiling & Downgrade](https://convextrade.com/history/2011-us-debt-downgrade), July–August 2011: S&P stripped the United States of its AAA credit rating on August 5, 2011, the first time in history. Markets whipsawed as the debt ceiling fight showed political risk could reprice government creditworthiness.
- [2015 Swiss Franc Unpegging Shock](https://convextrade.com/history/2015-swiss-franc-unpegging), January 15, 2015: The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments.
- [2015 China Yuan Devaluation](https://convextrade.com/history/2015-china-devaluation), August 2015: The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed.
- [2019 Hong Kong Protests & Capital Outflows](https://convextrade.com/history/2019-hong-kong-protests), June 2019 – June 2020: Hong Kong's 2019 protests over an extradition bill and Beijing's 2020 National Security Law reshaped the territory's role as Asia's financial hub. Capital outflows, reduced multinational presence, and regulatory divergence from the West had durable effects on regional finance.
- [2023 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse](https://convextrade.com/history/2023-svb-banking-crisis), March 2023: Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, 2023, the second-largest bank failure in US history. The Fed's response redefined liquidity backstops for the banking system.
- [2023 Credit Suisse Forced Merger](https://convextrade.com/history/2023-credit-suisse-failure), March 15-19, 2023: Credit Suisse was forced into an emergency acquisition by UBS over the weekend of March 18-19, 2023. The deal wiped out AT1 bondholders while preserving some equity, reshaping bank capital structure risk assessment globally.
- [2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind](https://convextrade.com/history/2024-yen-carry-trade-unwind), July–August 2024: The Bank of Japan hiked rates on July 31, 2024. The yen rallied 8% in days. The Nikkei crashed 12% in one session. VIX briefly spiked to 65.

### Reflation Regime
- [1985 Plaza Accord](https://convextrade.com/history/1985-plaza-accord), September 22, 1985: G5 finance ministers agreed at the Plaza Hotel in New York to coordinate intervention that weakened the dollar. The accord engineered a 50% decline in DXY over two years and set the stage for the 1987 crash and Japan's bubble.
- [1994 Bond Market Massacre](https://convextrade.com/history/1994-bond-market-massacre), February – November 1994: The Fed's surprise 25bp hike on February 4, 1994 triggered one of the worst bond market selloffs in history. 10Y yields rose 240bps in nine months. Orange County, Mexico, and Kidder Peabody were casualties.
- [2012 Draghi "Whatever It Takes" Moment](https://convextrade.com/history/2012-draghi-whatever-it-takes), July 26, 2012: ECB President Mario Draghi's July 26, 2012 speech in London ended the acute eurozone crisis. The commitment, backed by Outright Monetary Transactions, arrested peripheral yield spikes without buying a single bond.
- [2013 Taper Tantrum](https://convextrade.com/history/2013-taper-tantrum), May–September 2013: When Fed Chair Ben Bernanke suggested tapering QE in May 2013, 10Y Treasury yields nearly doubled, emerging markets cracked, and carry trades unwound violently.
- [2021 Meme Stock Mania (GameStop)](https://convextrade.com/history/2021-meme-stock-mania), January–February 2021: GameStop rose 1,625% in January 2021 as retail traders on r/WallStreetBets forced a short squeeze. Hedge funds lost billions. Robinhood restricted trading.

### Stagflation Regime
- [1971 Nixon Shock (End of Gold Standard)](https://convextrade.com/history/1971-nixon-shock), August 15, 1971: On August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at $35/oz, ending the Bretton Woods system and ushering in the modern fiat era.
- [1973 OPEC Oil Embargo](https://convextrade.com/history/1973-oil-embargo), October 1973 – March 1974: OPEC quadrupled oil prices and embargoed shipments to the United States in response to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The shock launched a decade of stagflation.
- [1979 Volcker Shock](https://convextrade.com/history/1979-volcker-shock), October 1979 – August 1982: Paul Volcker's Fed raised interest rates to 20% to break entrenched inflation. The policy triggered the deepest post-war recession but ended the stagflation era and established inflation-targeting credibility.
- [2022 Fed Rate Hiking Cycle](https://convextrade.com/history/2022-rate-hiking-cycle), March–December 2022: The Fed raised rates 425bps in 2022, the fastest hiking cycle since the Volcker era. The 60/40 portfolio posted its worst year since 1937.
- [2022 UK Mini-Budget & Gilt Crisis](https://convextrade.com/history/2022-uk-gilt-crisis), September 23 – October 14, 2022: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's September 23, 2022 mini-budget triggered a collapse in sterling and gilts. LDI pension strategies faced forced liquidation. The Bank of England intervened to prevent financial instability.
- [2025 US Tariff Shock](https://convextrade.com/history/2025-tariff-shock), February – April 2025: The Trump administration imposed reciprocal tariffs averaging 25% on most trading partners in February-April 2025. Markets priced the most aggressive trade policy shift since 1930, with ripple effects across currencies, bond yields, and supply chains.

## Data Sources (11 upstream providers)

### Alternative Data
- [On-Chain Analytics](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#onchain) (On-chain): Blockchain-native metrics: active addresses, exchange flows, realized cap, miner behavior, stablecoin flows. Cadence: Daily, with some metrics available intraday. License: Derived from public blockchain data and aggregator APIs.

### Community
- [News APIs](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#news-apis) (News): Financial news headlines used for signal detection, not republication. Original sources always linked. Cadence: Streaming through the trading day. License: Headlines and URLs consumed under API terms; full articles are linked to the original publisher.

### Market Data
- [Equity, FX, and Commodity Market Feeds](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#market-feeds) (Market Data): Spot prices for equities, ETFs, FX pairs, and commodity futures. End-of-day and intraday quotes. Cadence: Near real-time during market hours. License: Aggregated from licensed market-data providers with redistribution terms permitting derived analytics.
- [CoinGecko](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#coingecko) (CoinGecko): Spot and derivatives data across 10,000+ cryptocurrencies: prices, volume, dominance, market cap. Cadence: Real-time via public API. License: CoinGecko API Terms of Service.
- [CBOE](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#cboe) (CBOE): Options and volatility data: VIX, VIX term structure, SKEW, put/call ratios. Cadence: Daily close values; intraday snapshots where available. License: CBOE data used under redistribution terms for derived analytics.

### Official Government
- [Federal Reserve Economic Data](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#fred) (FRED): US and international macro time series: rates, inflation, employment, GDP, housing, credit. Cadence: Daily sync, same-day for high-frequency series. License: Public domain data aggregated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#bls) (BLS): US labor market and price indices: employment situation, CPI detail, PPI, JOLTS, productivity. Cadence: On BLS release calendar, usually monthly. License: Public domain US Government data.
- [US Treasury](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#treasury) (Treasury): Daily Treasury yield curve rates, Treasury auction results, debt outstanding, TGA balance. Cadence: Daily for yields and TGA; per-auction for results. License: Public domain US Government data.
- [US Energy Information Administration](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#eia) (EIA): Energy fundamentals: crude inventories, refinery utilization, natural gas storage, production. Cadence: Weekly for inventories; monthly for STEO. License: Public domain US Government data.
- [Commodity Futures Trading Commission](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#cftc) (CFTC): Commitments of Traders (CoT) reports, commercial and non-commercial positioning in futures. Cadence: Weekly (Friday release, covering prior Tuesday). License: Public domain US Government data.
- [Global Central Banks](https://convextrade.com/data-sources#central-banks) (Central Banks): Policy rate decisions, meeting statements, and macro releases from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, PBoC, RBA, BoC, SNB, and others. Cadence: Real-time on release. License: Public information published by each central bank.

## Side-by-Side Comparisons (285 pairs)

- [Gold vs Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-bitcoin): Compare gold and bitcoin prices side by side. Live data, historical performance, and analysis of the two leading store-of-value assets.
- [CPI vs Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpi-vs-core-pce): Compare headline CPI and core PCE inflation measures side by side. Understand the gap between the two key US inflation gauges.
- [10Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/10y-vs-2y-yield): Compare the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields side by side. Track yield curve dynamics and recession signals in real time.
- [Fed Funds Rate vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-funds-vs-10y): Compare the Fed funds rate against the 10-year Treasury yield. Track the term premium, the recession-signaling inversion, and how Fed policy interacts with market-determined long rates.
- [VIX vs HY Credit Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/vix-vs-hy-spreads): Compare the VIX fear gauge and high yield credit spreads. Two key measures of market stress and risk appetite.
- [Dollar Index vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dxy-vs-gold): Compare the trade-weighted US dollar and gold price. Track the classic inverse relationship between the dollar and gold.
- [S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-qqq): Compare SPY and QQQ performance side by side. Track the gap between broad market and tech-heavy growth equities.
- [S&P 500 vs Russell 2000](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-iwm): Compare S&P 500 and Russell 2000. SPY +3.95 percent YTD vs IWM +11.8 percent YTD as small caps explode on Iran ceasefire progress, retreating oil, and Fed cut expectations.
- [5Y vs 10Y Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/5y-breakeven-vs-10y-breakeven): Compare 5Y breakeven (~2.58%) vs 10Y breakeven (~2.40%). Inflation term structure shows near-term inflation pressure above long-term Fed target.
- [Recession Probability vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/recession-probability-vs-vix): Compare a recession probability composite against the VIX. Track whether equity volatility is pricing macro recession risk appropriately, with historical disconnects providing the strongest cross-asset signals.
- [Sahm Rule vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahm-rule-vs-unemployment): Compare the Sahm Rule recession indicator and the unemployment rate. Track whether labor market deterioration is accelerating.
- [S&P 500 vs Dow Jones](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-dia): Compare SPY at $708 vs DIA at $492.21. The 500-stock cap-weighted S&P versus the 30-stock price-weighted Dow. Both are top US equity indices but with very different concentration profiles.
- [Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000](https://convextrade.com/compare/qqq-vs-iwm): Compare QQQ at $656 vs IWM at ~$246. The cleanest mega-cap-tech vs small-cap pair trade with QQQ +1 percent YTD vs IWM +11.8 percent YTD as small caps explode in April 2026.
- [S&P 500 vs Equal-Weight S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-rsp): Compare cap-weighted SPY against equal-weight RSP. RSP outpaced SPY by ~5pp in early 2026 as mega-cap dominance faded. The cleanest market-breadth indicator in equity markets.
- [S&P 500 vs Emerging Markets](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-eem): Compare US large-cap equities against emerging markets. EEM gained 53 percent over trailing 12 months versus SPY 17.4 percent, the largest sustained EM outperformance in over a decade.
- [S&P 500 vs International Developed](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-efa): Compare US equities against international developed markets (Europe, Japan, Australia). EFA outperformed SPY 21.82 percent vs 17.4 percent over trailing 12 months, the first sustained reversal of US exceptionalism in years.
- [S&P 500 vs China Large-Cap](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-fxi): Compare US and Chinese equity performance. SPY at $708 vs FXI at $35.56 (April 5 2026, 52-week range $29.21-$42.00). The cleanest US-vs-China cross-asset trade in equity markets.
- [S&P 500 vs Japan](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-ewj): Compare US and Japanese equity performance. EWJ +31.7 percent trailing 12 months vs SPY +17 percent as Japanese equities reach multi-decade highs on Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms and yen weakness.
- [Technology (XLK) vs Utilities (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-xlu): Compare technology (XLK) against utilities (XLU). Track the growth-defense rotation signal that has been altered by the AI data center power demand cycle starting in 2024.
- [Technology (XLK) vs Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-xlf): Compare technology against financials sector. Track XLK at $155 vs XLF at $51.73, the rate-cycle rotation between long-duration tech and rate-sensitive financials, and the AI-vs-banking sector battle.
- [Energy vs Technology](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-xlk): Compare XLE energy against XLK technology. April 2026: WTI $95.85 driving XLE rally vs XLK at recent highs on AI capex. The ultimate old-vs-new economy rotation pair.
- [Consumer Discretionary (XLY) vs Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xly-vs-xlp): Compare cyclical consumer spending (XLY) against defensive staples (XLP). The XLY/XLP ratio signaled the 2000 and 2007 market tops and remains the cleanest single sector-rotation cyclical indicator.
- [Financials vs Regional Banks](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-kre): Compare broad financials (XLF) against regional banks (KRE). Track systemic vs localized banking stress.
- [Healthcare (XLV) vs Industrials (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlv-vs-xli): Compare defensive healthcare against cyclical industrials. Track XLV at $147.77 vs XLI at $171.18, the 0.863 ratio, and what late-cycle rotation looks like in April 2026.
- [Energy Sector (XLE) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-spy): Compare energy sector against the S&P 500. Track XLE at $55 vs SPY at $708, the only S&P sector positive YTD 2026, and the Iran war-driven oil price catalyst.
- [Real Estate vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-spy): Compare XLRE Real Estate sector against SPY S&P 500. XLRE at $44.48 yielding 2.44 percent vs SPY at $708. The clearest read on rate-sensitivity vs broad-market growth dynamics.
- [Semiconductors vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/smh-vs-qqq): Compare the semiconductor sector against the broader Nasdaq. Track whether the AI trade is broadening or narrowing.
- [30Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/30y-vs-10y-yield): Compare long bond and 10-year Treasury yields. Track the 30Y at 4.91 percent vs 10Y at 4.31 percent, the 60 basis-point spread, and what fiscal-driven term premium looks like in April 2026.
- [5Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/5y-vs-2y-yield): Compare 5-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Track 5Y at 3.94 percent vs 2Y at 3.78 percent, the 16 basis-point belly spread, and what Fed-cut pricing looks like in April 2026.
- [TLT vs IEF (Long vs Intermediate Bonds)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tlt-vs-ief): Compare TLT 20Y+ Treasury at $87 with 4.49 percent yield against IEF 7-10Y Treasury. The cleanest duration-risk pair in fixed income with TLT down 26 percent over 5 years on rate normalization.
- [Long Bonds vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/tlt-vs-spy): Compare Treasury bonds and equities. Track the 60/40 portfolio relationship and risk parity dynamics.
- [HY Bonds vs IG Bonds (ETFs)](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-lqd): Compare high yield and investment grade corporate bond ETFs. Track credit risk appetite through tradeable instruments.
- [TIPS vs Nominal Treasuries](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-tlt): Compare inflation-protected bonds against nominal long bonds. A tradeable proxy for inflation expectations.
- [Short-Term (SHY) vs Long-Term Treasuries (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/shy-vs-tlt): Compare SHY 1-3Y Treasury at ~$83 with 3.85 percent yield against TLT 20Y+ Treasury at $87. The cleanest extreme-duration pair: SHY is essentially cash; TLT carries massive duration exposure.
- [CPI vs PPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpi-vs-ppi): Compare CPI consumer prices against PPI producer prices. March 2026 PPI +4.0 percent YoY (largest since Feb 2023) vs CPI +3.3 percent YoY. Track inflation transmission from producer to consumer.
- [Shelter CPI vs Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/shelter-cpi-vs-core-cpi): Compare shelter CPI against core CPI. March 2026 shelter +3.0 percent YoY vs core CPI +2.6 percent YoY. Track shelter as the dominant core CPI driver.
- [Supercore Services vs Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/supercore-vs-core-pce): Compare supercore services (core services ex shelter) against core PCE. Core PCE 3.0 percent (March 2026 FOMC) vs supercore stuck flat for a year. The Fed's most-watched inflation gauges.
- [Michigan Expectations vs Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/michigan-inflation-vs-breakeven): Compare Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations (4.7 percent April 2026) against 10-year TIPS breakeven (2.38 percent). The most extreme survey-vs-market divergence on record.
- [Food CPI vs Energy CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/food-cpi-vs-energy-cpi): Compare food CPI against energy CPI. March 2026 food +2.7 percent YoY (stable) vs energy +12.5 percent YoY (gasoline +18.9 percent). The two most volatile and politically sensitive inflation components.
- [Gold Spot vs SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-silver): Compare gold spot price and SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). Track the tracking error and expense drag of holding physical gold via the largest gold ETF.
- [WTI vs Brent Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/wti-vs-brent): Compare US WTI and international Brent crude oil benchmarks. Track the spread between domestic and global oil prices.
- [Gold vs 10Y Real Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-real-yield): Compare gold against 10-year TIPS real yield. Gold at $4,722.19 with 10Y TIPS at 1.85 percent. The single most important fundamental relationship for gold prices, with structural breakdown emerging in 2024-2026.
- [Copper vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/copper-vs-gold): Compare copper (the economic bellwether) against gold (the safe haven). The copper-to-gold ratio is a growth indicator.
- [Oil Price vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/oil-vs-spy): Compare crude oil against US equities. WTI at $95.85 vs SPY at $708. Track whether rising oil reflects growth strength or supply-shock taxation of the economy.
- [Oil ETF (USO) vs Energy Equities (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/uso-vs-xle): Compare the oil commodity ETF against energy sector stocks. USO tracks WTI futures with roll-cost drag; XLE tracks 22 integrated oil majors and E&P companies. Track operational value vs commodity exposure.
- [Bitcoin vs Ethereum](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-eth): Compare Bitcoin and Ethereum prices side by side. Track the two largest cryptocurrencies and their evolving relationship.
- [Bitcoin vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-spy): Compare bitcoin against the S&P 500 (SPY). Track the rolling correlation that has ranged from -0.2 to 0.6, the post-ETF institutional flow effect, and whether bitcoin is becoming a high-beta tech proxy or retaining alternative-asset properties.
- [Bitcoin vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-qqq): Compare bitcoin against the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Track the 0.55 average correlation, the AI capex cycle effect, and bitcoin's emergence as a high-beta tech proxy.
- [Bitcoin vs Long Bonds (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-tlt): Compare bitcoin against the iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT). Track the real-rate connection, the 2022 joint decline, and how the two assets diverge under inflation versus liquidity regimes.
- [Bitcoin Funding Rate vs Bitcoin Price](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-funding-vs-btc): Compare Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate against spot price. Track positioning and leverage through the perpetual swap market, the cleanest crypto-specific positioning gauge.
- [Dollar ETF vs Gold ETF](https://convextrade.com/compare/uup-vs-gld): Compare the dollar bull ETF against gold. Track the inverse relationship through tradeable instruments.
- [EUR/USD vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurusd-vs-dxy): Compare EUR/USD against the broad trade-weighted dollar. Track ECB-Fed policy divergence, the euro's 58 percent weight in DXY, and the 160 basis point rate gap.
- [USD/JPY vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpyusd-vs-dxy): Compare USD/JPY against the broad trade-weighted dollar. Track the yen carry trade, BoJ policy normalization, and the 300 basis point Fed-BoJ rate gap that drives global capital flows.
- [Unemployment Rate vs JOLTS Job Openings](https://convextrade.com/compare/unemployment-vs-jolts): Compare the unemployment rate against job openings. Track the Beveridge curve and labor market tightness.
- [Initial Claims vs Continuing Claims](https://convextrade.com/compare/initial-claims-vs-continuing-claims): Compare weekly initial jobless claims (~225K) against continuing claims (~1.95M) April 2026. Track whether layoffs are accelerating and whether fired workers are finding new jobs.
- [Nonfarm Payrolls vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/nonfarm-vs-unemployment): Compare job creation against the unemployment rate. Track whether the labor market is in expansion or contraction.
- [Average Hourly Earnings vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/wages-vs-cpi): Compare wage growth against consumer inflation. Track whether workers are gaining or losing purchasing power.
- [Quits Rate vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/quits-rate-vs-unemployment): Compare JOLTS quits rate (1.9 percent April 2026) against unemployment (4.3 percent). Track labor market confidence and worker bargaining power.
- [Leading Economic Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/leading-index-vs-spy): Compare Conference Board LEI (-1.3% six-month decline through January 2026) against SPY (~$712, S&P 500 record territory ~7,126). Track whether leading indicators support the equity rally.
- [Industrial Production vs Capacity Utilization](https://convextrade.com/compare/industrial-production-vs-capacity): Compare US Industrial Production against Capacity Utilization. March 2026 industrial production at 101.8 with capacity utilization 75.7 percent (3.7pp below 1972-2025 long-run average). Track manufacturing sector health and inflation implications.
- [Retail Sales vs Consumer Sentiment](https://convextrade.com/compare/retail-sales-vs-consumer-sentiment): Compare US retail sales against University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Retail sales +0.7 percent MoM March 2026 vs sentiment 49.8 (April 2026, weakest reading on record). The classic hard data vs soft data divergence.
- [Housing Starts vs Building Permits](https://convextrade.com/compare/housing-starts-vs-permits): Compare housing starts against building permits. January 2026 starts +7.2 percent to 1.487M annualized, permits -5.4 percent to 1.38M. Track the housing construction pipeline.
- [Case-Shiller Home Prices vs Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/home-prices-vs-mortgage-rate): Compare Case-Shiller home prices against 30-year mortgage rate. Case-Shiller +1.2 percent YoY (January 2026) with mortgage rate 5.98-6.22 percent. Track US housing affordability dynamics.
- [Homebuilders vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-spy): Compare XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF against SPY. XHB at $109.44 vs SPY at $708 with 30-year mortgage rate at 5.98 to 6.22 percent. Housing-cycle leading indicator vs broad-market.
- [BBB vs AAA Credit Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/bbb-vs-aaa-spread): Compare BBB (lowest IG) vs AAA (highest IG) corporate spreads. Track the credit-quality curve, the 60 basis point April 2026 spread near 25-year tights, and the IG-side recession warning signal.
- [VIX vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/vix-vs-spy): Compare the VIX fear gauge against the S&P 500. Track the inverse relationship between volatility and equity prices.
- [Fed Balance Sheet vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-balance-sheet-vs-spy): Compare the Federal Reserve balance sheet (WALCL) against US equities. Track how QE, QT, and emergency facilities have shaped SPY since 2008.
- [M2 Money Supply vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/m2-vs-cpi): Compare M2 money supply growth against headline CPI inflation. Track the monetarist thesis from the 2020 surge through the 2023 contraction and the 2025 reacceleration.
- [Bank Reserves vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/bank-reserves-vs-spy): Compare total bank reserves at the Fed against equities. Track the plumbing of the financial system.
- [Yield Curve vs Leading Economic Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/yield-curve-vs-leading-index): Compare 10Y-2Y yield curve (+31bp re-steepened) against Conference Board LEI (-1.3% six-month change). Two classic recession indicators side by side.
- [Recession Probability vs Unemployment](https://convextrade.com/compare/recession-probability-vs-unemployment): Compare NY Fed 12-month-ahead recession probability (~18.8% April 2026) against unemployment rate (~4.3%). Track whether recession risk is rising before it shows up in jobs data.
- [Sahm Rule vs Initial Claims](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahm-rule-vs-initial-claims): Compare the Sahm Rule recession indicator against weekly initial jobless claims. Track the two key labor-market signals (smoothed and high-frequency) that historically lead recession turning points.
- [Fear & Greed Index vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/fear-greed-vs-spy): Compare the CNN Fear & Greed Index against US equities. Track the contrarian value of extreme sentiment readings.
- [Put/Call Ratio vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/put-call-vs-vix): Compare the equity put/call ratio against the VIX. Track how 0DTE flows have created a structural divergence between option demand and the headline volatility gauge.
- [CFTC Oil Positioning vs WTI Price](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-oil-positioning-vs-wti): Compare speculative positioning in oil futures against the oil price. Track whether the crowd is leaning the right way.
- [CFTC Gold Positioning vs Gold Price](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-gold-positioning-vs-gold): Compare speculative positioning in gold futures against the gold price. Track whether gold moves have positioning support.
- [CFTC S&P 500 Positioning vs SPY](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-sp500-positioning-vs-spy): Compare speculative futures positioning in the S&P 500 against the index price. Track institutional conviction.
- [CFTC Bitcoin Positioning vs BTC](https://convextrade.com/compare/cftc-btc-positioning-vs-btc): Compare CME Bitcoin futures positioning against the spot price. Track institutional crypto sentiment.
- [Oil Price vs Breakeven Inflation](https://convextrade.com/compare/oil-vs-breakeven-inflation): Compare crude oil price against market inflation expectations. Track whether energy prices are driving inflation fears.
- [Fed Funds Rate vs CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-funds-vs-cpi): Compare the Fed funds rate against headline CPI. Track real policy rate, the Volcker-era restraint comparison, and whether the Fed is ahead of or behind the inflation curve.
- [ECB Deposit Rate vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/ecb-rate-vs-fed-funds): Compare ECB deposit rate against Fed funds rate. April 2026: ECB at 2.00 percent (last cut June 2025), Fed at 3.50-3.75 percent (paused since December 2024). 150 basis point divergence drives EUR/USD.
- [BOE Bank Rate vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/boe-rate-vs-fed-funds): Compare BoE Bank Rate against Fed Funds Rate. April 2026: BoE at 3.75 percent (paused December 2025), Fed at 3.50-3.75 percent. UK inflation 4 percent expectations vs US persistent inflation. Track GBP/USD differential.
- [DAX 40 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/dax-vs-spy): Compare DAX 40 German equity benchmark against S&P 500. DAX at 24,129 vs SPY at $708. The clearest old-vs-new economy global rotation pair.
- [FTSE 100 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/ftse-vs-spy): Compare UK FTSE 100 against S&P 500. FTSE 100 at 10,425 (April 24 2026) vs SPY $708. The clearest value + commodity + dividend pair vs US tech-led broad-market.
- [Euro Stoxx 50 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurostoxx-vs-spy): Compare Euro Stoxx 50 eurozone blue chips against S&P 500. Top holdings include ASML and Novo Nordisk. STOXX 600 +17.5 percent YTD in EUR vs S&P 500 flat in EUR translation. The clearest European value vs US tech rotation pair.
- [VSTOXX vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-vix): Compare European VSTOXX against US VIX. VSTOXX hit 3-year high in early April 2026 amid trade disruption concerns. The clearest test of whether fear is global or region-specific.
- [Net Liquidity vs Bitcoin](https://convextrade.com/compare/net-liquidity-vs-btc): Compare net liquidity (Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus RRP) against Bitcoin. April 2026: WALCL $6.7T, TGA targeting $1.025T peak late April, RRP near zero. BTC at $78,126. The cleanest crypto liquidity-thesis pair.
- [Recession Index vs HY Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/recession-index-vs-hy-spreads): Compare Convex Recession Probability Index against ICE BofA HY Option-Adjusted Spread (~280bp tight). Track whether credit markets are pricing recession appropriately.
- [Real GDP vs Unemployment Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-unemployment): Compare real GDP against unemployment rate. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 2026 +1.2 percent vs unemployment 4.3 percent (March 2026). Track Okun's Law and growth-employment dynamics.
- [Bitcoin vs US Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-dollar): Compare Bitcoin against the broad dollar index. The 30-day correlation hit -0.90 on April 24, 2026, the most extreme inverse correlation in nearly four years, with 81 percent of BTC short-term moves explained by DXY.
- [Bitcoin vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-10y-yield): Compare Bitcoin against the 10-year US Treasury yield. BTC at $78,126 vs 10Y at 4.31 percent. Track how long-duration rates affect the leading digital asset through real-yield and discount-rate channels.
- [Bitcoin vs Federal Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-fed-funds): Compare Bitcoin against the Federal Funds Rate. BTC at $78,126 vs Fed funds at 3.50-3.75 percent. Track Bitcoin cycles aligning with Fed policy cycles, the cleanest macro liquidity bet in crypto.
- [Bitcoin vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-m2): Compare bitcoin against M2 money supply. Track the debasement thesis, the 70 to 90 day liquidity lag, and the $98 trillion global M2 backdrop.
- [Ethereum vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-spy): Compare Ethereum to the S&P 500. ETH at $2,353.84 vs SPY at $708. The cleanest high-beta-risk-asset vs broad-market trade with ETH outpacing BTC in April 2026.
- [Ethereum vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-gold): Compare Ethereum against gold. ETH at $2,322.61 vs gold at $4,722.19 (ATH $5,602.22 January 28 2026). The cleanest digital-platform-token vs traditional-store-of-value trade.
- [Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-qqq): Compare Ethereum to the Nasdaq 100. ETH at $2,353.84 vs QQQ at $656. The cleanest leveraged-tech-beta vs Nasdaq trade with ETH as crypto-tech proxy.
- [Ethereum vs US Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/ethereum-vs-dollar): Compare Ethereum to the broad dollar index. ETH at $2,322.61 vs DXY weakened 6-8 percent YTD 2026. ETH-DXY 30-day correlation typically -0.65 to -0.75, modestly less extreme than BTC at -0.90.
- [Bitcoin vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-vix): Compare Bitcoin against the VIX fear index. BTC at $78,126 vs VIX at 18.76 (March 2026 peak 31.05). Track crypto sensitivity to equity volatility shocks.
- [Bitcoin vs High Yield Credit Spreads](https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-hy-spreads): Compare Bitcoin against HY credit spreads. BTC at $78,126 vs HY OAS at 2.84 percent (April 2026). Track whether crypto is leading or lagging real credit market stress.
- [Gold vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-oil): Compare gold and WTI crude oil. Gold at $4,722.19 vs WTI at $95.85 puts the ratio at approximately 49 barrels per ounce, near 2020 COVID extremes and well above the 15-20 long-run average.
- [Gold vs Brent Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-brent): Compare gold against Brent crude oil. Gold at $4,722.19 vs Brent at approximately $100 puts the international gold-oil ratio at 47, complementing the WTI version with a more global lens.
- [Gold vs Freeport (FCX)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-fcx): Compare gold ($4,722 record territory) against Freeport-McMoRan ($68.28, ATH $70.71 April 17 2026). Precious vs industrial metals through producer lens.
- [Gold vs TIPS Bond ETF](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-tips): Compare gold against TIPS. Gold at $4,722.19 vs TIP ETF tracking 10-year TIPS at 1.85 percent real yield. The two primary inflation hedges with diverging behavior in 2024-2026.
- [Gold vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-spy): Compare gold and the S&P 500. Gold at $4,722.19 vs SPY at $708 puts the gold/SPY ratio at 6.67, near multi-year highs. The cleanest safe-haven vs risk-asset rotation gauge.
- [WTI Oil vs Energy Sector (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/wti-vs-xle): Compare WTI crude oil against the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE). Track XOM and CVX (40 percent combined weight), capex discipline era dynamics, and the Iran war catalyst.
- [WTI Oil vs US Dollar](https://convextrade.com/compare/oil-vs-dollar): Compare WTI crude against the US dollar index. WTI at $95.85 with DXY weakened 6-8 percent YTD 2026. Track the classic inverse relationship that has reasserted in 2025-2026.
- [Copper vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/copper-vs-oil): Compare copper against WTI oil. Copper at $5.98/lb COMEX vs WTI at $95.85/barrel. Two industrial commodities with diverging structural drivers in 2024-2026 (copper electrification cycle vs oil supply shock).
- [Copper vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/copper-vs-spy): Compare copper against the S&P 500. Copper at $5.98/lb vs SPY at $708. Dr. Copper as growth signal complementing equity-market signals, with current 2024-2026 era favoring copper structural demand.
- [Germany (EWG) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/ewg-vs-spy): Compare EWG iShares MSCI Germany ETF against SPY. EWG at $42.32 with DAX at 24,129 and SPY at $708. The classic global cyclical vs US large-cap pair.
- [CAC 40 vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/cac40-vs-spy): Compare the French CAC 40 against S&P 500. CAC 40 at 8,249 (April 24 2026) vs SPY $708. The clearest luxury + energy + healthcare European pair vs US tech.
- [Emerging Markets (EEM) vs Developed ex-US (EFA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/eem-vs-efa): Compare emerging markets against developed markets outside the US. EEM trailing 12 months +53 percent vs EFA +21.82 percent. The cleanest EM-vs-DM rotation excluding US dominance.
- [Apple (AAPL) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-spy): Compare Apple against the S&P 500. Track AAPL's 7.6 percent SPY weight, services revenue acceleration, the Apple Intelligence rollout, and the iPhone replacement cycle.
- [Apple (AAPL) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-qqq): Compare Apple against the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Track AAPL at 7.6 percent QQQ weight, the iPhone 17 cycle, Apple Intelligence rollout, and AAPL's position as the second-largest QQQ holding.
- [Microsoft (MSFT) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-spy): Compare Microsoft against the S&P 500. Track Azure cloud growth, the $110 billion AI capex commitment, Copilot adoption, and MSFT's 5.7 percent SPY weight.
- [Microsoft (MSFT) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-qqq): Compare Microsoft against the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Track MSFT at 5.7 percent QQQ weight, the Azure-and-Copilot enterprise AI thesis, and the $110 billion 2026 capex commitment.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-spy): Compare Nvidia against the S&P 500. Track the AI capex flagship trade, NVDA at $5 trillion market cap as the world's most valuable company, and the dominant single-stock driver of US equity returns.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Semiconductor ETF (SMH)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-smh): Compare Nvidia against the semiconductor ETF. Isolate Nvidia-specific leadership within semis.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-qqq): Compare Nvidia against the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Track NVDA at 9 percent QQQ weight, the AI capex narrowing, and how much of QQQ's 2024 to 2026 rally depends on NVDA alone.
- [Alphabet (GOOGL) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/alphabet-vs-spy): Compare Alphabet against the S&P 500. Track Google Cloud at 48 percent growth, Gemini at 750 million monthly users, the $175 to $185 billion 2026 capex, and the antitrust overhang.
- [Amazon (AMZN) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-spy): Compare Amazon against the S&P 500. Track AWS at $142 billion annual revenue, the $200 billion 2026 capex commitment (largest in US corporate history), and the dual retail-cloud exposure.
- [Meta (META) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/meta-vs-spy): Compare Meta Platforms against the S&P 500. Track META at 3.7 percent SPY weight, the $115 to $135 billion 2026 AI capex, the Scale AI $14.3 billion acquisition, and Llama with 1 billion+ downloads.
- [Tesla (TSLA) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-spy): Compare Tesla against the S&P 500. Track TSLA at $1.2 trillion, the high-beta retail-driven mega-cap (50-60 percent realized volatility), and the applied-AI-vs-broad-market risk appetite signal.
- [Tesla (TSLA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-qqq): Compare Tesla against the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Track TSLA at 3.5 percent QQQ weight, the robotaxi rollout (135 vehicles in Austin), Optimus production timeline, and Tesla as the highest-beta Magnificent 7 holding.
- [JPMorgan (JPM) vs Financial Sector (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-xlf): Track JPMorgan against the financial sector ETF. JPM at ~$310 ($873.62B mcap) is 11.33 percent of XLF, second-largest after Berkshire Hathaway at 11.46 percent. The cleanest mega-bank vs financial sector trade.
- [JPMorgan (JPM) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-spy): Compare JPMorgan against the S&P 500. Track JPM at $873 billion market cap, Q1 2026 record earnings ($16.5 billion), the largest US bank, and the financial-sector flagship signal.
- [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs Energy Sector (XLE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/exxon-vs-xle): Track ExxonMobil against the energy sector ETF. XOM at $148.85 ($627.67B mcap) is 22.85 percent of XLE, so the pair isolates everything in XLE that is not Exxon.
- [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/exxon-vs-spy): Track ExxonMobil against the S&P 500. XOM at $148.85 ($627.67B mcap, ~1.3 percent of S&P) versus SPY at $708. The cleanest oil-vs-equities pair trade.
- [Walmart (WMT) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/walmart-vs-xlp): Track Walmart against the consumer staples ETF. WMT at $131.94 ($1.036T mcap) is the largest XLP holding at 11.85 percent. The pair captures value retail vs the broader staples complex.
- [Walmart (WMT) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/walmart-vs-xly): Track Walmart against the consumer discretionary ETF. WMT at $131.94 ($1.036T mcap) is staples; XLY is dominated by Amazon (22.3 percent) and Tesla (19.2 percent). The cleanest staples-vs-discretionary pair.
- [UnitedHealth (UNH) vs Healthcare Sector (XLV)](https://convextrade.com/compare/unitedhealth-vs-xlv): Track UnitedHealth against the healthcare sector ETF. UNH at $350.82 ($276.23B mcap) is 6.10 percent of XLV. The pair captures managed care vs the broader sector dominated by Lilly and pharma.
- [UnitedHealth (UNH) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/unitedhealth-vs-spy): Track UnitedHealth against the S&P 500. UNH at $350.82 ($276.23B mcap, ~0.7 percent of S&P) versus SPY at $708. The cleanest managed-care vs broad-market trade.
- [Caterpillar (CAT) vs Industrial Sector (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/caterpillar-vs-xli): Track Caterpillar against the industrial sector ETF. CAT at $835.24 ($383.96B mcap) is the largest XLI holding at 7.06 percent. The pair captures heavy machinery vs broader industrial sector dynamics.
- [Caterpillar (CAT) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/caterpillar-vs-spy): Track Caterpillar against the S&P 500. CAT at $835.24 ($383.96B mcap, ~0.8 percent of S&P) versus SPY at $708. The cleanest global-capex bellwether vs broad market trade.
- [Apple (AAPL) vs Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/apple-vs-microsoft): Compare the two largest US software-and-hardware companies. Track AAPL at $4.04 trillion vs MSFT at $3.14 trillion, the consumer-vs-enterprise tech split, and the AI strategy divergence.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-microsoft): Compare the two dominant AI infrastructure plays. Track NVDA at $5.06 trillion vs MSFT at $3.14 trillion, the chip-vs-cloud rotation, and the customer-supplier dynamic.
- [Alphabet (GOOGL) vs Meta (META)](https://convextrade.com/compare/alphabet-vs-meta): Compare Alphabet and Meta. Track GOOGL at $4.1 trillion vs META at $1.71 trillion, the digital advertising duopoly, and the AI strategy divergence (cloud vs open-source).
- [Tesla (TSLA) vs Nvidia (NVDA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-nvidia): Compare the two highest-volatility mega caps. Track TSLA at $1.2 trillion vs NVDA at $5.06 trillion, applied AI (robotaxi, Optimus) vs AI infrastructure, and the most retail-driven mega-cap pair.
- [Healthcare (XLV) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlv-vs-spy): Track healthcare against the S&P 500. Monitor defensive leadership and healthcare-specific catalysts.
- [Communication Services (XLC) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlc-vs-spy): Compare communication services against the S&P 500. Track XLC at $115.54 vs SPY at $708, Meta and Alphabet driving 38 percent combined weight, and the AI advertising supercycle.
- [Communication (XLC) vs Technology (XLK)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlc-vs-xlk): Compare XLC communication services against XLK technology. April 2026: XLK $155.03 (AI capex). XLC dominated by Meta + Alphabet. Track digital advertising vs AI infrastructure leadership.
- [Industrials (XLI) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xli-vs-xly): Compare XLI industrials against XLY consumer discretionary. Both cyclical sectors with different drivers: XLI capex-driven, XLY consumer-driven. April 2026 with both cyclicals testing demand.
- [Financials (XLF) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-spy): Compare financials against the S&P 500. Track XLF at $51.73 vs SPY at $708, the 13 percent S&P weight financial sector, JPM record Q1 2026 earnings, and the rate-cycle exposure.
- [Real Estate (XLRE) vs Utilities (XLU)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-xlu): Compare XLRE REITs against XLU utilities. XLRE at $44.48, XLU at $46. Two rate-sensitive defensives with different AI capex exposure (data center REITs vs power utilities).
- [Real Estate (XLRE) vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-tlt): Compare XLRE Real Estate Select Sector SPDR against TLT long Treasury. XLRE at $44.48 yielding 2.44 percent, TLT at $87 yielding 4.49 percent. Both rate-sensitive but XLRE adds property cash-flow fundamentals.
- [Homebuilders (XHB) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-xly): Compare XHB homebuilders against XLY consumer discretionary. April 2026: XHB at $109.44 (housing resilient) vs XLY pressured by Tesla. Isolate housing-specific strength within consumer cycle.
- [Energy (XLE) vs Financials (XLF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-xlf): Compare XLE energy against XLF financials. April 2026: WTI $95.85 driving XLE rally vs XLF at $51.42 with 14-year-high bank NIMs. Two cyclicals with different inflation sensitivities.
- [Energy (XLE) vs Industrials (XLI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-xli): Compare XLE energy against XLI industrials. April 2026: XLE rallying on Iran war oil shock; XLI rallying on defense + AI data center capex. Two cyclicals with different drivers.
- [Healthcare (XLV) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlv-vs-xlp): Compare XLV healthcare against XLP consumer staples. Two defensive sectors with different drivers: XLV biotech/GLP-1, XLP consumer staples + retail. April 2026 GLP-1 winners drive divergence.
- [Utilities (XLU) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlu-vs-xlp): Compare XLU utilities against XLP consumer staples. April 2026: XLU at $46 (NextEra +26 percent on AI data center) vs XLP at $80 (Costco strong, GLP-1 headwinds). Two defensive sectors with different drivers.
- [Real Estate (XLRE) vs Homebuilders (XHB)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-xhb): Compare XLRE REITs against XHB homebuilders. April 2026: XLRE at $44.48 (data center subsector + bond proxy) vs XHB at $109.44 (housing resilience). Existing property vs new construction.
- [10Y Treasury vs 10Y-3M Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/10y-vs-3m-yield): Track the 10Y Treasury at 4.31 percent alongside the T10Y3M spread at 63 basis points. Read what the NY Fed recession-probability model is signaling in April 2026.
- [10Y vs 5Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs10-vs-dgs5): Compare the 10-year and 5-year Treasury yields. Track 10Y at 4.31 percent vs 5Y at 3.94 percent, the 37 basis-point spread, and what the back end of the belly is signaling in April 2026.
- [30Y vs 5Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs30-vs-dgs5): Compare 30Y Treasury at 4.65 percent vs 5Y Treasury at 4.05 percent. April 2026 5s30s spread approximately 60 basis points. Pure term-premium and long-run inflation expectation gauge.
- [1Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield: The Treasury Yield Curve Hub](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs1-vs-dgs2): Comprehensive Treasury yield curve hub: 1Y-2Y, 1Y-30Y, 2Y-30Y, EFFR-SOFR plumbing. Fed expectations decoder, the 2022-2024 deepest inversion since 1981, the 2024-2026 199bp re-steepening, and why the 26-month inversion was the longest false positive ever.
- [10Y-3M Spread vs 10Y-2Y Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/t10y3m-vs-t10y2y): Compare the two most-watched yield curve measures. Track T10Y3M at 63 bps vs T10Y2Y at 53 bps, the 10 bp differential, and which recession signal activates first.
- [BAA Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/baa-vs-10y): Compare Moody's BAA corporate yield against the 10-year Treasury. Track credit risk premium.
- [AAA Corporate Yield vs 10Y Treasury](https://convextrade.com/compare/aaa-vs-10y): Compare Moody's AAA corporate yield against the 10-year Treasury. Monitor top-tier credit risk.
- [BAA vs AAA Corporate Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/baa-vs-aaa): Compare the BAA corporate yield against AAA. Track credit quality differentiation.
- [5Y5Y Forward Inflation vs 5Y Breakeven](https://convextrade.com/compare/t5yifr-vs-t5yie): Compare the 5Y5Y forward inflation expectation against the current 5Y breakeven.
- [TIP vs Short Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-shy): Compare TIPS against short-duration nominal Treasuries. Track inflation protection demand.
- [IEF vs SHY (Intermediate vs Short Treasury)](https://convextrade.com/compare/ief-vs-shy): Compare 7-10 year against 1-3 year Treasuries. Track curve steepening and duration demand.
- [Sahm Rule Indicator vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahmrealtime-vs-payems): Compare Sahm Rule (TRIGGERED July 2024, 21+ months without recession) vs nonfarm payrolls (~159M total, slowing to 25K avg/month). Monitor labor-market-based recession odds.
- [Core CPI vs Core PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpilfesl-vs-pcepilfe): Compare core CPI against core PCE (the Fed's preferred measure). Track the two main core inflation gauges.
- [Core PCE vs Headline PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/pcepilfe-vs-pcepi): Compare core PCE against headline PCE. Track food and energy contributions to the Fed's preferred gauge.
- [Nominal GDP vs Real GDP](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-gdpc1): Compare nominal GDP against real GDP. Track inflation contribution to nominal growth.
- [Brent Crude vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/brent-vs-spy): Compare Brent crude against the S&P 500. Track global oil versus US equities.
- [Natural Gas vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/natgas-vs-spy): Compare natural gas against the S&P 500. Track the commodity most sensitive to weather and LNG demand.
- [Freeport-McMoRan vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/fcx-vs-spy): Compare the copper miner against the S&P 500. Track copper-cycle leadership within equities.
- [Agricultural Commodities (DBA) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/dba-vs-spy): Compare the agricultural commodity ETF against the S&P 500. Track ag-inflation versus equities.
- [USD/JPY vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexjpus-vs-dgs10): Compare USD/JPY against the US 10-year Treasury yield. Track how the US-JGB rate differential drives carry trade math, with the spread compressing from 350 to 190 basis points since 2024.
- [EUR/USD vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexuseu-vs-dgs10): Compare EUR/USD against the US 10-year Treasury yield. Track ECB-Fed policy divergence through the rate differential and the German bund-Treasury spread that anchors the pair.
- [GBP/USD vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/gbpusd-vs-dxy): Compare GBP/USD against broad dollar index. Sterling at $1.345-1.35 in April 2026 with DXY below 100. Track sterling-specific moves vs broad dollar dynamics.
- [EUR/GBP vs Dollar Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurgbp-vs-dxy): Compare EUR/GBP cross against dollar index. EUR/GBP at 0.8669 with 175bp BoE-ECB rate differential. Isolate Europe-UK relative dynamics independent of dollar interference.
- [Fed Balance Sheet vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/walcl-vs-tlt): Compare the Fed balance sheet against long-duration Treasuries. Track QE and long-rate dynamics.
- [BBB Spread vs High Yield Spread](https://convextrade.com/compare/bamlc0a4cbbb-vs-bamlh0a0hym2): Compare BBB (lowest investment grade) corporate spreads against high yield spreads. Track the credit quality cliff, fallen angel risk, and the 100 basis point line that defines the IG-HY boundary.
- [High Yield Bonds (HYG) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-spy): Compare high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) against the S&P 500. Track credit-equity risk-appetite confirmation, the 262 basis point HY spread, and divergence signals.
- [Investment Grade Bonds (LQD) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/lqd-vs-spy): Compare LQD investment-grade corporate bonds against SPY. LQD at $109.52 yielding 4.52 percent; SPY at $708 trading 22x forward earnings. The clearest cross-asset capital structure pair available through ETFs.
- [IG Corporate Bonds (LQD) vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/lqd-vs-tlt): Compare LQD investment-grade corporates against TLT long Treasuries. IG OAS at 80 basis points is near 25-year tights with LQD at $109.52 and TLT at $87. The cleanest IG-credit-versus-pure-duration pair available through ETFs.
- [High Yield (HYG) vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-tlt): Compare HYG high-yield credit against TLT long Treasury. HY OAS at 2.84 percent (tight) with TLT at $87. The cleanest credit-cycle vs duration-cycle pair available through ETFs.
- [Bitcoin vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/btc-vs-walcl): Compare bitcoin against the Fed balance sheet (WALCL). Track the QE-driven 2020 to 2021 rally, QT-driven 2022 drawdown, and the post-2024 ETF era decoupling.
- [Ethereum vs Long Treasury (TLT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/eth-vs-tlt): Compare ethereum against the iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT). Track the staking yield (3.2 percent), the July 2024 spot ETF approval, and the March 2026 staking ETF approval that combined ETH with bond-like income.
- [VSTOXX vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/vstoxx-vs-spy): Compare European VSTOXX volatility against US S&P 500. VSTOXX hit 3-year high in early April 2026 with SPY at $708. The cleanest cross-region risk-off detector.
- [Gold vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-vixcls): Compare gold spot at $4,722 against VIX at 18.76. Two safe-haven indicators with distinct drivers: gold for debasement/geopolitical, VIX for equity volatility.
- [Reverse Repo vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/rrpontsyd-vs-spy): Compare Fed reverse repo balances against the S&P 500. Track liquidity drain versus equity resilience.
- [1Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/dgs1-vs-dgs10): Compare 1Y Treasury at 3.85 percent vs 10Y Treasury at 4.31 percent. April 2026 1s10s spread approximately 46 basis points (positive). Track short-to-long curve shape.
- [High Yield (HYG) vs Short Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/hyg-vs-shy): Compare high-yield bonds against short Treasuries. Track credit risk premium.
- [IG Corporate (LQD) vs Short Treasury (SHY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/lqd-vs-shy): Compare IG corporates against short Treasuries. Track IG credit plus duration.
- [CPI vs WTI Crude Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpi-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare headline CPI against WTI crude oil. Track gasoline pass-through, the Iran war shock, and how energy moves headline inflation.
- [Headline CPI vs Headline PCE](https://convextrade.com/compare/cpiaucsl-vs-pcepi): Compare headline CPI against headline PCE. Track the two main inflation gauges.
- [Gold vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-dgs10): Compare gold ($4,722 record territory) against 10Y Treasury yield (4.31% sticky high). Track real-rate-driven gold dynamics + monetary debasement era.
- [Gold vs M2 Money Supply](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-m2): Compare gold ($4,722) against M2 (~$22.5T April 2026). Track gold as monetary debasement hedge tracking money-supply growth.
- [Gold vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-walcl): Compare gold ($4,722) against Fed balance sheet WALCL (~$6.7T, paused QT). Track gold as QE-sensitive asset.
- [Oil ETF (USO) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/uso-vs-spy): USO vs SPY analysis: futures-based oil ETF mechanics, contango roll-yield drag, the 2020 negative-oil episode, and why USO is a trade not an investment.
- [VIX vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-t10y2y): Compare the VIX against the yield curve. Track two distinct recession-risk signals.
- [VIX vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-dgs10): Compare the VIX against the 10Y yield. Track volatility versus rates dynamics.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-spy-momentum): Compare Nvidia against the 10Y yield. Track AI growth stock duration sensitivity.
- [JPMorgan (JPM) vs Regional Banks (KRE)](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-kre): Compare JPMorgan against regional banks. JPM at ~$310 ($873.62B mcap) versus KRE at $70.64. The cleanest mega-bank vs regional-bank trade with CRE maturity wall in focus.
- [Caterpillar (CAT) vs Copper](https://convextrade.com/compare/caterpillar-vs-pcoppusdm): Compare Caterpillar against copper. Track two global cycle proxies.
- [Tesla (TSLA) vs Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-fcx): Compare Tesla against Freeport-McMoRan. Track EV demand versus copper mining.
- [Amazon (AMZN) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-xly): Compare Amazon against consumer discretionary. Track AMZN's dominance in the sector.
- [Alphabet (GOOGL) vs Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/compare/google-vs-xlc): Compare Alphabet against communication services. Track Google dominance in the sector.
- [Meta (META) vs Communication Services (XLC)](https://convextrade.com/compare/meta-vs-xlc): Compare Meta against communication services. Track Meta's contribution to the sector.
- [Technology (XLK) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-dgs10): Compare XLK Technology Select Sector against the 10Y Treasury yield. XLK at $155.03 (52-week range $94.64-$156.07) with 10Y yield 4.31 percent. The tech sector duration sensitivity test.
- [Financials (XLF) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlf-vs-dgs10): Compare XLF financials against 10Y Treasury yield. XLF at $51.42 (April 25 2026) with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Top holdings include JPM 11.33 percent, Berkshire 11.46 percent, Visa 7.02 percent. Track bank NIM sensitivity.
- [Real Estate (XLRE) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlre-vs-dgs10): Compare XLRE REITs against 10Y Treasury yield. XLRE at $44.48 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Data center REITs (EQIX, DLR) ~18 percent of XLRE drive AI capex tailwind despite duration drag.
- [Utilities (XLU) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlu-vs-dgs10): Compare XLU utilities against 10Y Treasury yield. XLU at $46 (April 24 2026) with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Top holdings: NextEra 14.01 percent, Southern 7.23 percent, Duke 6.96 percent. Track bond-proxy with AI data center growth narrative.
- [Consumer Staples (XLP) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlp-vs-dgs10): Compare XLP consumer staples against 10Y Treasury yield. Top holdings: PG, COST, KO, WMT, PEP. April 2026 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Track defensive sector rate sensitivity plus inflation pass-through.
- [Energy (XLE) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xle-vs-dgs10): Compare XLE energy against 10Y Treasury yield. WTI at $95.85 driving XLE near 52-week highs; 10Y at 4.31 percent. Iran war oil shock catalyzed sector outperformance.
- [Industrials (XLI) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/xli-vs-dgs10): Compare XLI industrials against 10Y Treasury yield. Top holdings: GE, Caterpillar, Boeing, Raytheon, Honeywell. April 2026 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Track capex cycle vs rates.
- [Regional Banks (KRE) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/kre-vs-dgs10): Compare KRE regional banks against 10Y Treasury yield. KRE at $66.66 (April 2026) with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Higher beta to rates than XLF; key indicator for regional banking stress and CRE risk.
- [Homebuilders (XHB) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-mortgage30us): Compare XHB Homebuilders ETF against the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. XHB at $109.44 with mortgage rate at 5.98 to 6.22 percent. The clearest read on housing-affordability dynamics.
- [EUR/USD vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexuseu-vs-gold): Compare EUR/USD against gold. Track dollar-alternative trades.
- [USD/JPY vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexjpus-vs-gold): Compare USD/JPY (~159) against gold ($4,722 record territory). Track yen-dollar dynamics + gold debasement.
- [USD/CNY vs China Equity (FXI)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dexchus-vs-fxi): Compare USD/CNY against China Large-Cap equity (FXI). Track PBOC daily fix policy, the September 2024 stimulus rally, and how Beijing manages currency-equity tradeoffs.
- [GBP/USD vs FTSE 100](https://convextrade.com/compare/gbpusd-vs-ftse100): Compare GBP/USD against FTSE 100. Sterling at $1.345-1.35 with FTSE 100 at 10,379 (down from 10,641 recent high). The cleanest currency-adjusted UK equity exposure trade.
- [10Y Breakeven Inflation vs Gold](https://convextrade.com/compare/t10yie-vs-gold): Compare 10Y breakeven inflation (~2.4%) against gold ($4,722 record territory). Track gold vs market-implied inflation expectations.
- [JPMorgan (JPM) vs Walmart (WMT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-walmart): JPM vs WMT analysis: largest US bank vs largest US retailer as two competing reads on consumer health, recession bellwether dynamics, and Q1 2026 earnings divergence.
- [UnitedHealth (UNH) vs Walmart (WMT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/unitedhealth-vs-walmart): UNH vs WMT analysis: largest health insurer vs largest US retailer, Q1 2026 earnings beat with raised guidance, Medicare Advantage 2026 plan changes, and how two defensive names move on entirely different cycles.
- [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs Caterpillar (CAT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/exxon-vs-caterpillar): XOM vs CAT analysis: energy cyclical vs industrial cyclical, the 2026 Iran oil shock vs the data-center capex cycle, and why two cyclicals can move on completely different drivers in the same year.
- [Microsoft (MSFT) vs Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-alphabet): Compare Microsoft against Alphabet. Track MSFT at $3.14 trillion vs GOOGL at $4.1 trillion, the enterprise software vs digital advertising split, and the AI-cloud-search competition.
- [Amazon (AMZN) vs Microsoft (MSFT)](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-microsoft): Compare Amazon against Microsoft. Track AWS at $142 billion vs Azure at $90 billion annualized, the cloud market share war (32 vs 25 percent), and the $200 billion vs $110 billion 2026 capex commitments.
- [Amazon (AMZN) vs Tesla (TSLA)](https://convextrade.com/compare/amazon-vs-tesla): Compare Amazon against Tesla. Track AMZN at $2.84 trillion vs TSLA at $1.2 trillion, the consumer discretionary giants split between e-commerce/cloud and EV/AI applications.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Apple (AAPL)](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-apple): Compare Nvidia against Apple. Track NVDA at $5.06 trillion vs AAPL at $4.04 trillion, AI infrastructure vs consumer hardware, and the world's top two most valuable companies head-to-head.
- [Initial Jobless Claims vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/icsa-vs-spy): Compare initial claims against the S&P 500. Track labor stress versus equity markets.
- [Nonfarm Payrolls vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/payems-vs-spy): Compare nonfarm payrolls (~159M total, slowing to 25K avg/month) against SPY (~$712 record territory). Track labor market vs equity valuations.
- [Unemployment Rate vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/unrate-vs-spy): Compare unemployment rate against the S&P 500. Track labor market versus equities.
- [Consumer Sentiment vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/umcsent-vs-spy): Compare Michigan consumer sentiment against the S&P 500. Track sentiment-versus-price.
- [Auto Sales vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/totalsa-vs-spy): Compare total auto sales against the S&P 500. Track big-ticket consumer spending.
- [Semiconductors (SMH) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/smh-vs-dgs10): Compare SMH semiconductors against 10Y Treasury yield. SMH at $482 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. NVDA ~20 percent, TSMC ~13 percent. AI capex narrative dominant in 2024-2026 era.
- [Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/qqq-vs-dgs10): Compare QQQ Nasdaq 100 against 10Y Treasury yield. QQQ at $656 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Track tech-heavy growth duration sensitivity vs AI capex narrative override.
- [S&P 500 vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/spy-vs-dgs10): Compare SPY S&P 500 against 10Y Treasury yield. SPY at $708 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. The most-watched equity-rates pair for stock-bond regime classification.
- [Russell 2000 (IWM) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/iwm-vs-dgs10): Compare IWM Russell 2000 against 10Y Treasury yield. IWM at $245 with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Track small-cap credit-sensitivity.
- [TIPS (TIP) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-dgs10): Compare TIPS ETF against the 10Y nominal yield. Track real yield dynamics.
- [TIPS (TIP) vs Intermediate Treasury (IEF)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tip-vs-ief): Compare TIPS against intermediate nominal Treasuries. Isolate breakeven inflation.
- [Nominal GDP vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/gdp-vs-spy): Compare nominal GDP against the S&P 500. Track real-economy growth versus equity valuations.
- [ExxonMobil (XOM) vs WTI Oil](https://convextrade.com/compare/xom-vs-dcoilwtico): Compare Exxon equity against oil. Track integrated oil equity leverage.
- [EM Dollar Index vs Emerging Markets (EEM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dtwexemegs-vs-eem): Compare the EM dollar index against the EM equity ETF.
- [Dollar ETF (UUP) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/uup-vs-spy): Compare the dollar ETF against the S&P 500. Track dollar versus US equities through ETFs.
- [Adjusted NFCI vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/anfci-vs-spy): Compare the Adjusted NFCI against the S&P 500. Track excess financial stress.
- [Chicago NFCI vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/nfci-vs-spy): Compare the Chicago Fed NFCI against the S&P 500.
- [Nvidia (NVDA) vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/nvidia-vs-walcl): Compare Nvidia against the Fed balance sheet. Track AI leader versus liquidity.
- [Microsoft (MSFT) vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/microsoft-vs-walcl): Compare Microsoft against the Fed balance sheet.
- [Tesla (TSLA) vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/tesla-vs-dgs10): Compare Tesla against 10Y Treasury yield. TSLA at $376 (April 2026, -14 percent YTD) with 10Y at 4.31 percent. Track AI/robotaxi narrative duration sensitivity vs Q1 delivery miss.
- [JPMorgan vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/jpmorgan-vs-t10y2y): Compare JPMorgan against the yield curve. Track bank NIM dynamics.
- [Technology (XLK) vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/xlk-vs-vixcls): Compare technology against the VIX. Track tech risk-on leadership.
- [Russell 2000 (IWM) vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/iwm-vs-vixcls): IWM vs VIX analysis: small-cap VIX-beta of -1.2, the credit-cycle amplifier, the Russell 2000 reconstitution effect, and why small-caps lead recoveries despite trailing into stress.
- [Emerging Markets (EEM) vs VIX](https://convextrade.com/compare/eem-vs-vixcls): EEM vs VIX analysis: why emerging-markets equity has higher VIX-beta than SPY, the dollar-correlation amplifier, and how 2008/2013/2018/2020 stress episodes reset the EM volatility relationship.
- [Long Treasury (TLT) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/tlt-vs-iwm): Compare long Treasuries against small caps. Track duration versus small-cap risk.
- [Gold vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-spy-alt): Compare gold ($4,722, retraced 16% from $5,602 ATH January 2026) against QQQ (~$656, AI-led tech rally). Track hedge asset vs growth equity rotation.
- [Gold vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/gold-vs-iwm): Compare gold against small-cap equities.
- [VIX vs Fed Balance Sheet](https://convextrade.com/compare/vixcls-vs-walcl): Compare VIX against the Fed balance sheet. Track volatility versus Fed liquidity.
- [Sahm Rule vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahmrealtime-vs-spy): Compare Sahm Rule (TRIGGERED July 2024, 21+ months without recession) against SPY (~$712, S&P 500 record territory ~7,126). Track recession indicator vs equity-market discount.
- [10Y-3M Yield Curve vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/t10y3m-vs-spy): Compare the 10Y-3M curve against the S&P 500.
- [Homebuilders (XHB) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)](https://convextrade.com/compare/xhb-vs-iwm): Compare XHB homebuilders against IWM small-caps. April 2026: XHB at $109.44 (housing resilience) vs IWM at $245 (lagging on AI capex era). Two domestic-economy proxies.
- [30Y Mortgage Rate vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage30us-vs-spy): Compare the mortgage rate against the S&P 500.
- [Building Permits vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/permit-vs-spy): Compare permits against the S&P 500.
- [Average Weekly Hours vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/awhaetp-vs-spy): Compare weekly hours worked against the S&P 500.
- [Effective Fed Funds Rate vs Target Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/effr-vs-fedfunds): Compare the effective (realized) fed funds rate against the Fed target. Track how closely the market tracks the Fed target.
- [Trade Balance vs Nominal GDP](https://convextrade.com/compare/trade-balance-vs-gdp): Compare the US goods trade balance against nominal GDP. Track the external deficit as a share of the economy.
- [Capacity Utilization vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/capacity-utilization-vs-spy): Compare total industry capacity utilization against the S&P 500. Track real-economy slack against equity valuations.
- [Dow Jones (DIA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)](https://convextrade.com/compare/dia-vs-qqq): Compare DIA at $492.21 vs QQQ at $656. The cleanest old-economy-vs-tech pair trade with Dow underperforming Nasdaq for 8 of the last 10 years.
- [EUR/GBP vs GBP/USD](https://convextrade.com/compare/eurgbp-vs-gbpusd): Compare EUR/GBP cross against GBP/USD. EUR/GBP at 0.8669 with GBP/USD at $1.345-1.35. Triangulate sterling strength between euro and dollar through identity-based currency triangulation.
- [Bank Reserves vs Reverse Repo](https://convextrade.com/compare/reserves-vs-rrp): Compare bank reserves against the overnight reverse repo balance. Track the Fed liability split between banks and money funds.
- [Average Weekly Hours vs Average Hourly Earnings](https://convextrade.com/compare/hours-vs-wages): Compare average weekly hours (~34.2 March 2026) against average hourly earnings (+3.5% YoY March 2026, +0.1% real). Track labor-market intensive vs extensive margin.
- [Job Openings vs Nonfarm Payrolls](https://convextrade.com/compare/job-openings-vs-nonfarm): Compare JOLTS job openings (~7.6M April 2026) against nonfarm payrolls (~159M total). Track labor demand pipeline vs realized hiring.
- [Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): The Equal-Weight Hub](https://convextrade.com/compare/rsp-vs-qqq): Comprehensive RSP equal-weight comparison hub: RSP vs QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM, EFA, EEM. Concentration math, the 2024-2026 mega-cap reversal, the quarterly rebalance mechanic, and a practical framework for when equal-weight wins.
- [Developed ex-US (EFA) vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): The Global Equity Rotation Hub](https://convextrade.com/compare/efa-vs-qqq): Comprehensive global equity rotation hub: EFA vs QQQ, EFA vs DIA, EEM vs IWM, DIA vs IWM. Tracks the 14-year US-exceptionalism cycle, the 2026 EFA outperformance reversal, and which global rotation regime is dominant.
- [Gold ETF (GLD) vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/gld-vs-spy): GLD vs SPY analysis: gold ETF mechanics, 2024-2026 gold rally to $4,680, real-yield inverse, central-bank buying, and the tax-treatment trap most allocators miss.
- [SOFR vs 10Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/sofr-vs-dgs10): Compare overnight SOFR against the 10Y Treasury yield. Track the short-long funding spread.
- [SOFR vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/sofr-vs-fedfunds): Compare the SOFR overnight rate against the effective fed funds rate. Track secured-vs-unsecured overnight funding.
- [30Y Mortgage Rate vs 30Y Treasury Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/mortgage-rate-vs-30y): Compare the 30Y fixed mortgage rate against the 30Y Treasury yield. The cleanest single-pair view of mortgage credit spread, prepayment-option cost, and US housing affordability.
- [Durable Goods Orders vs S&P 500](https://convextrade.com/compare/durable-goods-vs-spy): Compare durable goods orders against the S&P 500. Track business capex against equity prices.
- [1Y Treasury Yield vs Fed Funds Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/1y-vs-fed-funds): Compare the 1Y Treasury yield against the fed funds rate. Track market expectations for Fed policy over the next year.
- [Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) vs Japanese Yen (JPY/USD)](https://convextrade.com/compare/cny-vs-jpy): Compare USD/CNY at 6.83 against USD/JPY at 159.30. Two major Asian currencies with very different policy frameworks: PBoC managed float vs BoJ market-driven yen.
- [Fed Funds vs Bank of Canada Overnight Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-vs-boc-rates): Compare the Federal Reserve policy rate and the Bank of Canada overnight rate side by side. Track US-Canada policy divergence and its impact on USD/CAD.
- [Fed Funds vs RBA Cash Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-vs-rba-rates): Compare US Federal Reserve rate and Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate side by side. Track AUD/USD drivers and Asia-Pacific policy divergence.
- [Fed Funds vs Brazil Selic Rate](https://convextrade.com/compare/fed-vs-bcb-rates): Compare US Federal Reserve rate and Brazil Selic rate side by side. Track emerging-market policy divergence and the BRL carry trade.
- [US 10Y vs Canada 10Y Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-10y-vs-canada-10y): Compare US 10Y Treasury at 4.31 percent vs Canada 10Y at approximately 3.65 percent. Track long-end policy divergence and the Canada-US term-premium spread.
- [US 10Y vs Australia 10Y Government Bond Yield](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-10y-vs-australia-10y): Compare US 10Y at 4.31 percent vs Australia 10Y at approximately 4.10 percent. Track Asia-Pacific long-end policy divergence and AUD carry dynamics.
- [VIX vs MOVE Index](https://convextrade.com/compare/vix-vs-move): Compare VIX equity volatility against MOVE Treasury volatility — the two dominant cross-asset volatility benchmarks. Track the VIX/MOVE ratio, historical divergence patterns, and regime signals across equities and rates.
- [FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 (SPY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/margin-debt-vs-spy): Compare FINRA margin debt and S&P 500 levels side by side. Track retail leverage cycles, margin-call risk, and equity-market froth indicators.
- [Sahm Rule vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve](https://convextrade.com/compare/sahm-vs-yield-curve): Compare Sahm Rule (triggered July 2024, 21+ months without recession) and 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve (re-steepened to ~31bp) side by side. Track two leading recession signals.
- [US Composite Leading Indicator vs Euro Area CLI](https://convextrade.com/compare/us-cli-vs-euro-cli): Compare OECD Composite Leading Indicators for US (~99.5 April 2026) and Euro Area (~99.0). Track transatlantic cycle divergence narrowing as US softens + Eurozone bottoms.
- [5-Year Breakeven Inflation vs Core CPI](https://convextrade.com/compare/breakeven-5y-vs-core-cpi): Compare 5-year breakeven inflation and core CPI side by side. Track market-based inflation expectations against realized core inflation.
- [Money Market Fund Assets vs S&P 500 (SPY)](https://convextrade.com/compare/mmf-flows-vs-spy): Compare total US money market fund assets (ICI) and S&P 500 side by side. Track cash-on-the-sidelines dynamics and risk-asset rotation.

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## Public API Reference

All endpoints return JSON, are rate-limited to 100 req/day unauthenticated, and require visible attribution in published content.

### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/macro-summary
Complete macro snapshot for AI agents. Includes regime, CVRP, stress index, key rates, VIX, credit spreads, inflation, and narrative.
Example response:
```json
{
  "regime": { "current": "Stagflation", "confidence": 72, "trajectory": "deteriorating" },
  "recession_probability": 34,
  "stress_index": 45,
  "net_liquidity_trn": 5.42,
  "key_rates": { "10y": 4.25, "2y": 3.95, "spread_2s10s_bps": 30 },
  "volatility": { "vix": 18.5 },
  "credit": { "hy_spread_bps": 350 },
  "inflation": { "cpi_yoy_pct": 3.2 },
  "narrative": "...",
  "attribution": "Data by Convex, https://convextrade.com"
}
```

### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/regime
Current macro regime with per-asset directional views.

### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/metrics/{ticker}
Current value, historical changes, and interpretation for any metric. Replace {ticker} with any supported ID (e.g., dgs10, vixcls, spy, btc, convex_crpi).

### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/signals
Convex composite indices plus key market signals.

### GET https://convextrade.com/api/public/content/latest
Latest 5 articles with summaries, ready for syndication.

Full OpenAPI spec: https://convextrade.com/.well-known/openapi.yaml
MCP spec: https://convextrade.com/.well-known/mcp.json