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Economic Analysis
Institutional-grade macro analysis generated daily from live central bank data, CFTC positioning, commodity markets, and financial news.
Institutional-grade macro analysis generated daily from live central bank data, CFTC positioning, commodity markets, and financial news.
The new 50% U.S. tariff is best understood as a customs-code remedy: three proclamations answer specific Canadian treatment of U.S. vehicles, alcohol and dairy, while the annexes, Section 232 carve-out and August 19 effective date determine which Canadian shipments actually pay.
The Atlanta Fed's nowcast printed the same 1.3% it reset to in April, and Thursday's update, not Tuesday's CPI, is the number that settles the growth question.
The 2023 grant of a competitiveness objective to the PRA recreates, in softer form, the regulatory configuration that preceded the 2007-08 UK banking failures, and it does so at a point in the cycle, benchmark real yields rising and realized inflation above what markets price, when prudential slack is most likely to be exposed.
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