Model-Based Forecasts
Market Forecasts 2026
Scenario-weighted forecasts for 200+ macro indicators combining the current regime classification, active tracked scenarios, and historical patterns. Each forecast surfaces direction, key drivers, and the probability distribution of possible outcomes.
Regime-implied directions as of , current regime: STAGFLATION
Forecast Approaches
Scenario-Weighted
Aggregates probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios.
Regime-Implied
Derives expected direction from current macro regime classification.
Trend-Extrapolation
Near-term trajectory adjusted for mean-reversion and technical levels.
Equity Index
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
$739.17
scenario weighted
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)
$708.93
scenario weighted
Dow Jones ETF (DIA)
$495.37
scenario weighted
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
$277.6
scenario weighted
S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)
$201.56
scenario weighted
Emerging Markets (EEM)
$65.07
scenario weighted
China Large-Cap (FXI)
$36.2
scenario weighted
EAFE Developed (EFA)
$101.72
scenario weighted
Germany / DAX (EWG)
$41.37
scenario weighted
Japan / Nikkei (EWJ)
$91.07
scenario weighted
Equity Sector
Financials (XLF)
$51.1
scenario weighted
Energy (XLE)
$59.44
scenario weighted
Technology (XLK)
$176.26
scenario weighted
Utilities (XLU)
$43.87
scenario weighted
Industrials (XLI)
$171.4
scenario weighted
Healthcare (XLV)
$145.1
scenario weighted
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
$116.53
scenario weighted
Consumer Staples (XLP)
$84.64
scenario weighted
Communication Services (XLC)
$116.08
scenario weighted
Real Estate (XLRE)
$43.23
scenario weighted
Semiconductors (SMH)
$556.34
scenario weighted
Homebuilders (XHB)
$96.32
scenario weighted
Regional Banks (KRE)
$66.97
scenario weighted
Yield Curve & Rates
3-Month Treasury Yield
3.69%
scenario weighted
1Y Treasury Yield
3.79%
scenario weighted
2Y Treasury Yield
4.00%
scenario weighted
5Y Treasury Yield
4.13%
scenario weighted
10Y Treasury Yield
4.47%
scenario weighted
30Y Treasury Yield
5.02%
scenario weighted
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
50 bps
scenario weighted
10Y-3M Yield Spread
90 bps
scenario weighted
5Y Real Yield (TIPS)
1.46%
scenario weighted
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
2.00%
scenario weighted
10Y Term Premium (ACM)
0.70%
scenario weighted
SOFR
3.56%
scenario weighted
Effective Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
scenario weighted
Fed Funds Target (Upper)
3.75%
scenario weighted
Federal Funds Rate
3.64%
scenario weighted
Bank Prime Loan Rate
6.75%
scenario weighted
5Y Breakeven Inflation
2.70%
scenario weighted
5Y5Y Forward Inflation
2.28%
scenario weighted
1-Month Treasury Yield
3.72%
scenario weighted
6-Month Treasury Yield
3.76%
scenario weighted
3Y Treasury Yield
4.04%
scenario weighted
7Y Treasury Yield
4.29%
scenario weighted
20Y Treasury Yield
5.01%
scenario weighted
5Y Treasury minus Fed Funds
50 bps
scenario weighted
10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds
84 bps
scenario weighted
Canada Overnight Rate Target
2.25%
scenario weighted
Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield
3.50%
scenario weighted
Bonds & Duration
Inflation
CPI (All Urban)
332.41
regime implied
US CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy)
2.31%
regime implied
US CPI YoY
3.26%
regime implied
Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)
335.42
regime implied
PCE Price Index
130.34
regime implied
Core PCE (ex Food/Energy)
129.28
regime implied
PPI Final Demand
156.50
regime implied
CPI: Rent of Shelter
445.12
regime implied
CPI: Supercore Services
443.15
regime implied
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
179.82
regime implied
CPI: Energy
325.98
regime implied
CPI: Food
348.35
regime implied
Michigan Inflation Expectations
3.80%
regime implied
10Y Breakeven Inflation
2.49%
regime implied
Global Commodity Price Index
218.81
regime implied
CPI-U (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
333.02
regime implied
1Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)
3.54%
regime implied
2Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)
2.98%
regime implied
5Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)
2.59%
regime implied
10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)
2.48%
regime implied
30Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)
2.51%
regime implied
Mexico Headline CPI YoY
regime implied
FX & Dollar
Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)
118.04
scenario weighted
EM Dollar Index
127.59
scenario weighted
EUR/USD
$1.18
scenario weighted
JPY/USD
156.64
scenario weighted
CNY/USD
6.8
scenario weighted
BRL/USD
4.9
scenario weighted
Real Effective Exchange Rate
107.62
scenario weighted
Trade Balance
-60,307
scenario weighted
AUD/USD
$0.72
scenario weighted
NZD/USD
$0.6
scenario weighted
USD/CHF
0.78
scenario weighted
USD/SEK
9.23
scenario weighted
USD/NOK
9.21
scenario weighted
USD/DKK
6.35
scenario weighted
USD/SGD
1.27
scenario weighted
USD/HKD
7.83
scenario weighted
Japan Real Effective Exchange Rate
66.33
scenario weighted
China Real Effective Exchange Rate
91.54
scenario weighted
UK Real Effective Exchange Rate
111.16
scenario weighted
Canada Real Effective Exchange Rate
98.17
scenario weighted
South Korea Real Effective Exchange Rate
85.44
scenario weighted
India Real Effective Exchange Rate
91.05
scenario weighted
Australia Real Effective Exchange Rate
114.79
scenario weighted
Brazil Real Effective Exchange Rate
115.84
scenario weighted
Mexico Real Effective Exchange Rate
139.11
scenario weighted
Switzerland Real Effective Exchange Rate
104.22
scenario weighted
Russia Real Effective Exchange Rate
122.36
scenario weighted
US Dollar Bull (UUP)
$27.77
scenario weighted
GBP/USD (FRED Daily)
$1.36
scenario weighted
GBP/USD
$1.34
scenario weighted
EUR/GBP
0.87
scenario weighted
CAD/USD
$1.37
scenario weighted
MXN/USD
$17.21
scenario weighted
Commodities
WTI Crude Oil
$101.56
scenario weighted
Brent Crude Oil
$106.11
scenario weighted
Henry Hub Natural Gas
$2.82
scenario weighted
Copper Price (Global)
$12,951.35
scenario weighted
US Retail Gasoline (Weekly)
4.5
scenario weighted
Henry Hub Natural Gas (Monthly)
2.77
scenario weighted
Beef Price (Global)
349.77
scenario weighted
Wheat Price (Global)
193.88
scenario weighted
Soybean Price (Global)
426.6
scenario weighted
Cocoa Price (Global)
3,241.49
scenario weighted
Coffee Price (Other Mild Arabica)
334.11
scenario weighted
Iron Ore Price (Global)
107.58
scenario weighted
Sugar Price (Global)
14.8
scenario weighted
Soybean Meal Price (Global)
312.43
scenario weighted
European Natural Gas Price
17.67
scenario weighted
Gold (Spot)
$4,566.8
scenario weighted
BULLISH
WTI Crude Oil
$101.03
scenario weighted
Brent Crude Oil
$109.34
scenario weighted
Natural Gas
$3.03
scenario weighted
Copper Futures (Daily)
$6.28
scenario weighted
Gold ETF (GLD)
$417.29
scenario weighted
Oil ETF (USO)
$148.23
scenario weighted
Agriculture ETF (DBA)
$27.83
scenario weighted
Energy Supply
Crypto
Volatility
Credit & Financial Stress
HY Credit Spread (OAS)
276 bps
regime implied
IG Credit Spread (OAS)
76 bps
regime implied
HY Effective Yield
6.91%
regime implied
IG Effective Yield
5.15%
regime implied
BBB Credit Spread
95 bps
regime implied
AAA Credit Spread
35 bps
regime implied
Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread
1.05%
regime implied
Baa-10Y Treasury Spread
1.62%
regime implied
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
-0.52
regime implied
Adjusted NFCI
-0.48
regime implied
Financial Stress Index (StL)
-0.76
regime implied
SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening
8.10%
regime implied
SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening
2.00%
regime implied
Credit Card Delinquency Rate
2.94%
regime implied
Moody's Aaa Corporate Yield
5.42%
regime implied
Moody's Baa Corporate Yield
6.03%
regime implied
AA Corporate OAS
48 bps
regime implied
A Corporate OAS
63 bps
regime implied
7-10Y Corporate OAS
89 bps
regime implied
BB HY OAS
166 bps
regime implied
Single-B HY OAS
304 bps
regime implied
CCC & Lower HY OAS
922 bps
regime implied
High Yield Credit (HYG)
$79.46
regime implied
IG Credit (LQD)
$107.86
regime implied
Liquidity
Fed Balance Sheet
$6.73T
regime implied
Overnight Reverse Repo
$0B
regime implied
Treasury General Account
$839B
regime implied
M2 Money Supply
$23B
regime implied
Total Reserves
$3B
regime implied
Monetary Base
$5B
regime implied
Reserve Balances at Fed
$3103B
regime implied
Credit Card Loans (Banks)
$1B
regime implied
Convex Net Liquidity Index
$5.89T
regime implied
Japan Monetary Base
6,621,318
regime implied
BoJ-held JGB Aggregate
regime implied
SNB Currency Reserves (CHF)
877,670
regime implied
Labor Market
Unemployment Rate (U3)
4.30%
regime implied
Underemployment Rate (U6)
8.20%
regime implied
Initial Jobless Claims
219,000
regime implied
Initial Claims 4-Week MA
209,500
regime implied
Continued Claims
1,794,000
regime implied
Nonfarm Payrolls
158,736
regime implied
JOLTS Job Openings
6,866
regime implied
JOLTS Quit Rate
2.00%
regime implied
Avg Weekly Hours (Private)
34.3
regime implied
Avg Hourly Earnings (Private)
$37.41
regime implied
Labor Force Participation
61.80%
regime implied
Employment-Population Ratio
59.10%
regime implied
JOLTS Job Openings Rate
4.10%
regime implied
JOLTS Hires Rate
3.50%
regime implied
JOLTS Hires Level
5,554
regime implied
JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges Rate
1.20%
regime implied
JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges Level
1,867
regime implied
JOLTS Quits Level
3,171
regime implied
JOLTS Total Separations Rate
3.40%
regime implied
JOLTS Total Separations Level
5,378
regime implied
Unemployed 5 to 14 Weeks
1,859
regime implied
Unemployed 15 to 26 Weeks
1,057
regime implied
Unemployed 27+ Weeks (Long-Term)
1,833
regime implied
Marginally Attached
3,511
regime implied
Part-Time for Economic Reasons
4,942
regime implied
Nonfarm Productivity
0.80%
regime implied
Avg Hourly Earnings (Production)
$32.23
regime implied
Unemployment Rate (White)
3.70%
regime implied
Unemployment Rate (Black)
7.30%
regime implied
Unemployment Rate (Hispanic)
5.00%
regime implied
Unemployment Rate (Asian)
4.00%
regime implied
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker — Overall
3.90%
regime implied
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Job Stayers
3.80%
regime implied
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Job Switchers
5.00%
regime implied
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth — Prime Age (25-54)
4.20%
regime implied
Economic Activity
Nominal GDP
$32B
regime implied
Real GDP
$24B
regime implied
Industrial Production
102.50
regime implied
Capacity Utilization
76.12%
regime implied
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)
656,115
regime implied
Durable Goods Orders
318,909
regime implied
Consumer Sentiment (Michigan)
53.30
regime implied
Auto Sales (SAAR)
16.7
regime implied
Inventories-to-Sales Ratio
1.32
regime implied
Real Disposable Income
$18B
regime implied
Personal Saving Rate
3.60%
regime implied
Real Personal Consumption
$17B
regime implied
Total Consumer Credit
$5141B
regime implied
C&I Loans (All Banks)
$3B
regime implied
Revolving Consumer Credit
$1337B
regime implied
Non-Revolving Consumer Credit
$3804B
regime implied
Corporate Profits After Tax
$4B
regime implied
Mfg Unfilled Orders-to-Shipments
670,894
regime implied
Manufacturers' New Orders (Total)
630,448
regime implied
Empire State Manufacturing Index
19.60
regime implied
Housing
Housing Starts
1,502
regime implied
Building Permits
1,363
regime implied
New Home Sales
682
regime implied
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
327.31
regime implied
Months Supply of Houses
8.5
regime implied
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.36%
regime implied
Housing Starts: Single-Family
1,032
regime implied
Housing Starts: 5+ Units
446
regime implied
Building Permits: Single-Family
895
regime implied
Building Permits: 5+ Units
419
regime implied
Housing Completions
1,366
regime implied
Vacant Housing Units
15,305
regime implied
FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index
709.05
regime implied
Recession Indicators
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
0.13%
regime implied
Leading Index for US
1.72
regime implied
OECD Composite Leading Indicator
99.85
regime implied
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability
9.00
regime implied
Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
82,960
regime implied
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
-1.03
regime implied
US Recession Probability (Smoothed)
1.82%
regime implied
Sentiment & Positioning
Convex Risk Appetite Index
52.00
trend extrapolation
Convex Narrative Velocity Index
87.60
trend extrapolation
BTC Net Speculative Positioning
1,259
trend extrapolation
BTC Futures Open Interest
23,535
trend extrapolation
Gold Net Speculative Positioning
171,622
trend extrapolation
Gold Futures Open Interest
376,496
trend extrapolation
WTI Net Speculative Positioning
-41,499
trend extrapolation
WTI Futures Open Interest
875,230
trend extrapolation
S&P 500 Net Speculative Positioning
-138,905
trend extrapolation
S&P 500 Futures Open Interest
2,078,428
trend extrapolation
Copper Net Speculative Positioning
76,309
trend extrapolation
Copper Futures Open Interest
259,808
trend extrapolation
Euro FX Net Speculative Positioning
40,200
trend extrapolation
Euro FX Futures Open Interest
829,377
trend extrapolation
Yen Net Speculative Positioning
-75,102
trend extrapolation
Yen Futures Open Interest
362,042
trend extrapolation
Treasury Bond Net Speculative Positioning
-172,854
trend extrapolation
Treasury Bond Futures Open Interest
1,837,021
trend extrapolation
10Y Note Net Speculative Positioning
-781,167
trend extrapolation
10Y Note Futures Open Interest
5,866,357
trend extrapolation
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
28.00
trend extrapolation
Equity Put/Call Ratio
0.94
trend extrapolation
BTC Perpetual Funding Rate
0.01%
trend extrapolation
Equity Stock
Apple (AAPL)
$300.23
scenario weighted
Microsoft (MSFT)
$421.92
scenario weighted
Nvidia (NVDA)
$225.32
scenario weighted
Alphabet (GOOGL)
$396.78
scenario weighted
Meta (META)
$614.23
scenario weighted
Amazon (AMZN)
$264.14
scenario weighted
Tesla (TSLA)
$422.24
scenario weighted
JPMorgan (JPM)
$297.81
scenario weighted
Caterpillar (CAT)
$888.31
scenario weighted
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
$157.92
scenario weighted
Walmart (WMT)
$131.45
scenario weighted
UnitedHealth (UNH)
$393.85
scenario weighted
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
$63.01
scenario weighted
EU/UK Rates
Switzerland SNB Policy Rate
-0.35%
scenario weighted
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
2.00%
scenario weighted
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
2.15%
scenario weighted
ECB Marginal Lending Rate
2.40%
scenario weighted
€STR (Euro Short-Term Rate)
1.93%
scenario weighted
BoE Bank Rate
3.75%
scenario weighted
UK 10Y Gilt Yield
4.74%
scenario weighted
UK 2Y Gilt Yield
4.83%
scenario weighted
UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM)
4.28%
scenario weighted
Italy 10Y BTP Yield (Q)
3.54%
scenario weighted
Eurozone Real GDP
2,890,460.2
scenario weighted
EURIBOR 3M
2.03%
scenario weighted
UK Real GDP
706,067
scenario weighted
EU/UK Inflation
UK CPI Inflation (WEO)
3.27%
regime implied
Germany CPI Inflation (WEO)
2.26%
regime implied
France CPI Inflation (WEO)
2.00%
regime implied
Italy CPI Inflation (WEO)
0.98%
regime implied
Spain CPI Inflation (WEO)
2.77%
regime implied
Netherlands CPI Inflation (WEO)
3.35%
regime implied
Sweden CPI Inflation (WEO)
2.84%
regime implied
Switzerland CPI Inflation (WEO)
1.06%
regime implied
Eurozone HICP (Index)
101.98
regime implied
UK CPI Index
136.10
regime implied
EU/UK Labor
Germany Unemployment Rate
4.00%
regime implied
France Unemployment Rate
7.70%
regime implied
Italy Unemployment Rate
5.20%
regime implied
Spain Unemployment Rate
10.30%
regime implied
UK Unemployment Rate (WEO)
4.75%
regime implied
Germany Unemployment Rate (WEO)
3.71%
regime implied
France Unemployment Rate (WEO)
7.54%
regime implied
Italy Unemployment Rate (WEO)
6.39%
regime implied
Spain Unemployment Rate (WEO)
10.38%
regime implied
Netherlands Unemployment Rate (WEO)
3.87%
regime implied
Sweden Unemployment Rate (WEO)
8.69%
regime implied
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (WEO)
4.87%
regime implied
Eurozone Unemployment
6.70%
regime implied
UK Unemployment
5.20%
regime implied
EU/UK Equity
EU/UK Volatility
EU/UK Fixed Income
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.