Gold traded near $4,700 in mid-May 2026 even after the inflation shock of 2022 faded and real yields stayed positive. The clean explanation is not a resurrected CPI trade. It is a reserve-allocation trade: central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 through 2024 and another 863 tonnes in 2025, changing who sets the marginal price.
Gold near $4,700 an ounce in mid-May 2026 is not supposed to sit comfortably inside the old macro model. The October 2022 low was near $1,656. From there, bullion roughly tripled while the inflation panic cooled, the Fed completed one of the sharpest hiking cycles in modern history, and real yields stayed positive.
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