Brent shed the war premium as U.S.-Iran strikes paused, yet gold climbed and Convex's NVI held at 81.77. Markets removed one inflation tail without pricing a durable settlement.
Brent crude dropped 9.31% on Monday. Gold rose 0.73%. Those moves look contradictory only if both assets were trading the same version of peace. They weren't. Oil priced fewer missiles and a better chance of tanker traffic recovering. Gold priced lower yields, an unresolved war and a Federal Reserve decision that became no easier to call.
Continue reading →Long-form analysis from the Convex research desk — the stories shaping the macro tape.
The Atlanta Fed's nowcast printed the same 1.3% it reset to in April, and Thursday's update, not Tuesday's CPI, is the number that settles the growth question.
The 10-year looks unchanged over a month, but beneath it real yields are up 10 basis points, breakevens price a rapid disinflation that realized CPI has not delivered, and Tuesday's June inflation print decides which side folds.
Long-form investigative pieces. Multi-pass synthesis across 150+ indicators, central bank data, and narrative shifts, edited for depth over speed.
Three Section 338 proclamations answer disputes over vehicles, alcohol and dairy with a separately defined basket of Canadian goods from August 19.
Britain's bank regulator gained a growth mandate in 2023; the last UK regulator told to weigh competitiveness was abolished after the 2008 crisis.
Recession probability from yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims, credit spreads, and leading indicators.
Fed Balance Sheet minus Reverse Repo minus TGA. Measures actual liquidity flowing into markets.
Current directional bias and conviction from our macro regime analysis.
Transmission-mechanism analysis tracing geopolitical events to tradeable market consequences. Sanctions, supply chains, sovereign divergence, energy, and conflict.
THESIS Brent closed at $94.37, up 6.06% in a day and 32.77% over twenty sessions from $71.08. WTI ran with it, $68.16 to $87.66, a 28.6% move. A crude jump that fast, driven by sup...
THESIS The 10-year Treasury is flat over 30 days — 4.55% to 4.56% — but the composition has swung hard: real yields +10bp (DFII10 2.21% to 2.31%), the breakeven -11bp to 2.23%. The...
A 92nd-percentile speculative long, a collapsing hash rate and real yields at a 2.7-sigma extreme are converging on the asset built to fall first.
Crude rose 3.9% in a session, clearing the $78-90 range the house view carried on Tuesday night. The inflation and credit readings it should be judged against have not been marked since.
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Create free account →The VIX sits near 16 while Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reads 15. That gap is June’s rates shock showing up in the one asset built to feel it first.
Cross-asset risk appetite from 5 ETF price ratio z-scores: small/large, HY/IG, discretionary/staples, EM/DM, banks/broad.