Editorial Standards & Methodology

How Our Analysis Is Produced

All analysis published on Convex is produced by the Convex Research Desk, an AI-powered editorial system. Our models, built on Claude by Anthropic, synthesize data from 300+ live economic indicators to produce original analysis. The AI is our analytical engine, not a shortcut: it cross-references multiple data sources and analytical frameworks to generate research that reflects the current macro environment with specificity and rigour.

We publish two types of analysis: longform editorials (800–1,300 words) that provide deep, thesis-driven analysis of macro themes, and breaking analysis (300–600 words) that deliver rapid-response analytical takes on significant market developments, typically within minutes of an event.

Data Sources

Our analysis draws on primary economic data from authoritative sources. Every claim and statistic in a Convex article is grounded in this data pipeline:

Analytical Framework

Our analysis is grounded in established macro-economic frameworks, not pattern-matching or sentiment aggregation. Key pillars of our analytical approach:

• Macro Regime Classification

  We classify the current economic environment into one of four regimes, Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation, based on the interaction of growth, inflation, and monetary policy data. This regime framework shapes every piece of analysis we publish.

• Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis

  Markets do not move in isolation. Our models track correlations across rates, equities, commodities, credit, and currencies to identify divergences, contagion risks, and positioning imbalances.

• Central Bank Policy Tracking

  Federal Reserve communications, dot plots, and policy rate expectations are integrated into our macro model. We track the gap between market pricing and our assessment of likely policy outcomes.

• CFTC Positioning Data

  Net speculative positioning across major futures markets provides a contrarian signal layer. Extreme positioning often precedes reversals, and we incorporate this data into our analysis systematically.

• Significance Scoring

  Not every data release warrants analysis. Our proprietary scoring system evaluates signal magnitude, cross-asset convergence, topic freshness, and event severity to determine whether a development merits publication, ensuring we publish when there is something meaningful to say, not on a fixed schedule.

Quality Controls

Every article published on Convex passes through a multi-stage validation process designed to ensure accuracy, originality, and editorial quality:

1. Articles are only generated when our significance scoring system identifies a meaningful development worth analyzing, preventing noise and ensuring every piece has a clear analytical purpose.
2. Every article undergoes automated fact-checking against our live data sources. Specific numbers, rates, and percentages cited in articles are validated against the underlying economic data to catch discrepancies.
3. Our editorial review system evaluates each article for coherence, logical flow, appropriate tone for professional financial analysis, and consistency with the current macro regime. Articles that are over-hedged, internally contradictory, or tonally inappropriate are rejected.
4. Duplicate and overlapping coverage is automatically detected. We enforce topic diversity to ensure we do not publish repetitive analysis on the same theme, even when the underlying data changes incrementally.
5. Articles that fail any quality check are rejected and never published. Our system logs rejection reasons for ongoing calibration and improvement.

Financial Disclaimer

Correction Policy

Accuracy is fundamental to our credibility. If you identify a factual error in our analysis, an incorrect data point, a misattributed statistic, or a logical inconsistency, please contact us at mail@convextrade.com.

We will review the report and, where warranted, update the article with a correction notice. Corrected articles display an updated modification timestamp. We do not silently alter published analysis, corrections are transparent and traceable.

Funding & Ownership

Convex is independently founded and self-funded by Ben Bleier. There are no outside investors, no advertisers, no affiliate revenue, and no paid placements influencing editorial coverage. The site is free during beta. There is no paywall and no premium tier with conflict-of-interest implications for indexed content.

If this changes — for example if Convex takes outside investment, introduces sponsored content, or begins charging for analysis — we will disclose the change here and date the disclosure.

Conflict-of-Interest Policy

Articles published on Convex frequently discuss specific tickers, asset classes, and policy outcomes. The editor's personal positions do not influence which assets get covered, what the analytical conclusion is, or how scenarios are framed. Coverage is driven by significance scoring and macro relevance, not by holdings.

Where the editor holds a material long or short position in an asset that is the primary subject of an article, that position will be disclosed inline at the top of the article. Material is defined as more than 1% of the editor's investable net worth in a single ticker. No such disclosures are required for articles where the discussed asset is one of many cross-referenced data points (e.g., gold mentioned alongside twenty other commodities in a regime classification).