Convex Research Desk
Economic Analysis
The Convex Research Desk is an AI-powered editorial system that produces daily macro intelligence from over 670 live economic indicators. Our analysis covers macro regimes, rates and fixed income, energy markets, credit conditions, currencies, cryptocurrency, equities, trade policy, and geopolitics.
Every article produced by the Research Desk is generated from primary economic data, not summarized or rewritten from existing reporting. Our models cross-reference multiple data sources and analytical frameworks to produce original analysis that reflects the current macro environment with specificity and rigour.
Analytical Framework
Our analysis is structured around a macro regime model that classifies the current economic environment into one of four states, Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation, based on the real-time interaction of growth indicators, inflation metrics, and monetary policy signals. This regime classification informs every piece of analysis we publish.
Beyond regime classification, we employ cross-asset correlation analysis, central bank policy tracking, CFTC positioning analysis, and a proprietary significance scoring system that determines when a development is meaningful enough to warrant publication. Articles are not published on a fixed schedule, they are generated when there is something substantive to say.
Coverage Areas
Macro
Economic regime classification, liquidity conditions, and monetary policy analysis. We track the interaction of growth, inflation, and policy data to classify the current environment as Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation, a framework that shapes all downstream analysis.
Sources: FRED, US Treasury, Federal Reserve, fiscal data
Rates & Fixed Income
Yield curve dynamics, duration positioning, real rate analysis, and Treasury auction impact assessment. We track term premia, curve inversions, and the gap between market rate expectations and our macro model.
Sources: FRED yield data, Treasury auction results, CFTC bond positioning
Energy
Crude oil, natural gas, and energy commodity analysis with focus on supply-demand fundamentals, inventory cycles, and geopolitical supply risk. Energy prices are a primary input to our inflation and regime models.
Sources: EIA inventory/production data, CFTC energy positioning, global supply models
Credit
High-yield and investment-grade spread analysis, fund flow tracking, and default cycle monitoring. Credit markets often lead equity repricing, making them a critical early warning system in our framework.
Sources: FRED credit spreads, fund flow data, financial conditions indices
Currencies
G10 and emerging market FX analysis, carry trade dynamics, and central bank policy divergence. We pay particular attention to USD/JPY carry trade mechanics and their systemic implications.
Sources: Cross-rate data, interest rate differentials, CFTC FX positioning
Crypto
On-chain analytics, Wyckoff regime analysis, and derivatives positioning across Bitcoin and Ethereum. We treat crypto as a macro asset class, analyzing it through the same rigorous framework as traditional markets.
Sources: CoinGecko, blockchain network data, derivatives positioning
Equities
Index-level analysis, sector rotation tracking, earnings season assessment, and volatility surface signals. We focus on how equity markets price macro risk rather than individual stock analysis.
Sources: Market data, VIX term structure, CFTC equity index positioning, earnings data
Geopolitics
Analysis of geopolitical developments through a macro lens, trade policy, sanctions, conflict escalation, and their transmission into commodity prices, supply chains, and risk premia.
Sources: Wire services, policy announcements, commodity flow data
Quality Standards & Transparency
Every article passes through automated fact-checking against our live data sources, editorial review for coherence and accuracy, and deduplication checks before publication. Articles that fail any quality gate are rejected and never published.
The Research Desk is an AI-powered system, not a team of human journalists. We are fully transparent about this. Every article includes a clear disclosure identifying it as AI-generated content produced from live economic data.
Learn more about our process, data sources, and correction policy on the editorial standards page.