Economic Calendar
Events & Data Releases
Recent economic data releases and market-moving events, scored by AI for macroeconomic significance. Events that trigger full analysis re-runs are marked.
Latest event:
Forward-looking macro calendar: US releases plus central bank decisions scheduled this week.
Saturday, May 16, 2026
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 1.6% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.6% (-$74.90) — notable move worth monitoring
2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% — crosses above 4
[DGS2:4] 2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% threshold crossed. Current value: 4.00. Previous side: below. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
10Y Real Yield (TIPS) above 2% — crosses above 2
[DFII10:2] 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) above 2% threshold crossed. Current value: 2.00. Previous side: below. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
Friday, May 15, 2026
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 2.4% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.4% (-$111.80) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.2% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.2% (-$6.17) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.8% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.8% (-$1.51) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 2.7% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.7% (-$126.60) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.2% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.2% (-$6.13) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.8% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.8% (-$1.50) — notable move worth monitoring
HYG down 0.5% in 24h
HYG moved down 0.5% (-$0.41) — notable move worth monitoring
SMALL-LARGE CAP DIVERGENCE resolved — spread normalized
[small-large-cap] Divergence transition: CONFIRMED -> NONE. Z-score: -1.1. IWM rising while SPY rising. Historical hit rate: 64% over median 20 trading days. Implication: Risk appetite narrowing, late-cycle breadth signal
Gold down 3.1% in 24h
Gold moved down 3.1% (-$147.00) — major move exceeding normal range
Gold down 2.9% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.9% (-$135.90) — notable move worth monitoring
2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% — crosses below 4
[DGS2:4] 2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% threshold crossed. Current value: 3.98. Previous side: above. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
Gold down 2.1% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.1% (-$101.10) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 1.7% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.7% (-$78.70) — notable move worth monitoring
CREDIT-EQUITY DIVERGENCE emerging — HY Spread falling while SPY rising
[credit-equity] Divergence transition: NONE -> EMERGING. Z-score: -1.6. HY Spread falling while SPY rising. Historical hit rate: 73% over median 18 trading days. Implication: BEARISH equities on 2-6 week horizon
Thursday, May 14, 2026
SMALL-LARGE CAP DIVERGENCE CONFIRMED at -2.3σ — historical resolution rate 64%
[small-large-cap] Divergence transition: EMERGING -> CONFIRMED. Z-score: -2.3. IWM rising while SPY rising. Historical hit rate: 64% over median 20 trading days. Implication: Risk appetite narrowing, late-cycle breadth signal
2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% — crosses above 4
[DGS2:4] 2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% threshold crossed. Current value: 4.00. Previous side: below. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management Launches Second Tokenized Money Market Fund on Ethereum - PR Newswire
J.P. Morgan launching a second tokenized money market fund on Ethereum signals accelerating institutional adoption of blockchain-based financial infrastructure, with cross-asset implications for crypto and traditional finance convergence.
CREDIT-EQUITY DIVERGENCE emerging — HY Spread falling while SPY rising
[credit-equity] Divergence transition: NONE -> EMERGING. Z-score: -1.6. HY Spread falling while SPY rising. Historical hit rate: 73% over median 18 trading days. Implication: BEARISH equities on 2-6 week horizon
Kevin Warsh confirmed as next Fed chair by Senate
Kevin Warsh, known as a hawkish Fed critic, confirmed as next Fed chair signals potential major policy shift toward tighter monetary policy and institutional restructuring at the Fed.
How much sway will new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh really have over interest rates? - CBS News
Speculation about incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's influence over monetary policy is a meaningful policy signal with broad cross-asset implications, particularly for rates and FX.
Crypto-Friendly Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair to Replace Jerome Powell
Confirmation of a new Fed Chair replacing Powell is a systemic macro event with immediate implications for monetary policy trajectory, rate expectations, and all asset classes — Warsh's crypto-friendly and hawkish-leaning reputation adds further cross-asset repricing pressure.
Senators File Clarity Act Amendments on DeFi, Trump Family, and Jeffrey Epstein
Senate Banking Committee vote on Clarity Act amendments covering DeFi regulation is a meaningful legislative milestone that could shape the US crypto regulatory framework, with Trump family and Epstein provisions adding political complexity that may affect passage odds.
Russia unleashes massive drone barrage on Ukraine killing six
Escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict with large-scale drone attack signals continued war intensity, relevant to European energy security, defense equities, and safe-haven flows.
Netanyahu visited UAE in ‘secret’ during US-Israel war on Iran, office says
Secret Netanyahu-UAE visit during active US-Israel-Iran conflict signals potential Gulf diplomatic realignment with significant implications for regional stability, oil markets, and geopolitical risk pricing.
Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve chair, as US central bank faces Trump assault
Confirmation of a new Fed Chair is a major policy inflection point — Warsh is known as a hawk, replacing Powell signals potential shift in monetary policy stance amid elevated inflation and political pressure on Fed independence.
Cisco's stock pops 14% on surging AI orders, as company says it's cutting almost 4,000 jobs
Cisco's 14% stock pop on surging AI orders is a significant earnings surprise with broad implications for AI infrastructure spending and tech sector sentiment, while the 4,000 job cuts signal ongoing enterprise restructuring.
Trump's Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmed by US Senate
Senate confirmation of a new Fed Chair is a major policy event with significant implications for monetary policy trajectory, rate expectations, and USD — Warsh is known as a hawk and critic of QE, signaling potential policy divergence from current Fed stance.
Cisco soars after Q4 guidance tops estimate by nearly $1B as AI infrastructure takes off
Cisco's Q4 guidance beating estimates by ~$1B signals strong AI infrastructure demand, with broad implications for networking/tech sector and AI capex cycle sentiment.
📊 PPI Final Demand: 154.30 ▲ 1.0% MoM (April 2026)
PPI Final Demand surging +1.0% MoM in April 2026 is a significant upside inflation surprise that signals pipeline price pressures re-accelerating, with direct implications for Fed policy expectations, bond yields, and equity valuations.
Fidelity International’s first tokenized fund receives top-tier AAA-mf rating from Moody’s
Fidelity International's tokenized money market fund receiving a AAA-mf Moody's rating is a meaningful institutional validation of tokenized fund infrastructure, signaling growing TradFi adoption of blockchain-based financial products.
Bitcoin Rally Cut Short as Profit-Taking Rises, US Demand Falls: CryptoQuant
On-chain data from CryptoQuant signals rising profit-taking and falling US demand, historically a precursor to major Bitcoin corrections with potential crypto-wide contagion.
US Senate warns of China’s nuclear capabilities hours before Xi-Trump summit
Senate nuclear warning against China timed hours before Xi-Trump summit creates geopolitical tension that could influence trade/diplomatic outcomes and risk sentiment.
Trump Has One Major Focus While in China: Trade
A Trump visit to China focused exclusively on trade deals signals potential tariff relief or new bilateral agreements with significant cross-asset implications.
Trump, Xi Prepare for High-Stakes Summit in Beijing
A Trump-Xi summit with trade deal expectations is a major geopolitical and trade event with broad cross-asset implications, particularly for equities, FX, and commodities sensitive to US-China relations.
Senate confirms Trump pick Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve, following Powell - PBS
Senate confirmation of Warsh as Fed Chair is a major policy leadership transition with significant implications for monetary policy direction, rate path expectations, and USD — Warsh is known as a hawk and critic of QE, signaling potential policy divergence from Powell era.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Wobble As Markets Await Clarity Act Markup, Dogecoin Extends Rally - Yahoo Finance
Crypto markets showing volatility ahead of the Clarity Act markup, a significant US regulatory development that could reshape the digital asset landscape.
Circle CEO Reveals CLARITY Act’s Impact on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP - Coinpedia
Circle CEO commentary on the CLARITY Act's implications for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP signals meaningful regulatory framework development that could reshape crypto asset classification and market structure.
Cisco Earnings and Revenue Beat Estimates On Strong AI Demand. Its Shares Surge. - Barron's
Cisco earnings and revenue beat driven by AI demand signals continued enterprise AI infrastructure spending, with positive read-through for networking and tech hardware sector.
S&P 500 rises to another record on the back of tech even as majority of stocks close lower: Live updates - CNBC
S&P 500 hitting another record high driven by tech with negative breadth (majority of stocks lower) signals a narrow, concentrated rally — a notable divergence worth flagging for risk and positioning.
Release Archives by Event Type
Deep-dive pages for each major recurring economic release, with per-release historical data.
Get notified when high-impact economic events occur.