ConvexTrade Macro
Geopolitical-economic intelligence briefings. We trace transmission mechanisms between world events and market consequences, the analytical layer between breaking news and sell-side research.
Trump Threatens Military Action Against Iran Over Strait of Hormuz Blockade
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued a direct military threat against Iran following renewed Iranian rhetoric about potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The threat represents an escalation in US-Iran t...
Israeli Airstrikes Hit Iranian Airports, Major Petrochemical Complex in Escalation
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli airstrikes targeted three Iranian airports and the country's largest petrochemical complex, marking the most significant direct attack on Iranian energy infrastructure since t...
Iran-backed coalition coordinates first unified strike, escalating Red Sea maritime conflict risks
WHAT HAPPENED Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen's Houthis conducted coordinated strikes against Israeli targets, marking the first operational trinity between Tehran's proxy network. The synchronised atta...
Trump Threatens Comprehensive Strikes on Iran's Critical Infrastructure by Tuesday
WHAT HAPPENED President Trump issued an ultimatum threatening comprehensive strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure by Tuesday deadline, specifically targeting energy and industrial facilities. T...
Trump threatens Iranian critical infrastructure strikes by April 7 deadline
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued a public ultimatum threatening strikes against Iranian critical infrastructure with an April 7 deadline, following what the White House described as a rescue operation of...
Iran's South Pars Gas Hub Strike Threatens Global LNG Supply Chains
WHAT HAPPENED Strikes targeted Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir containing approximately 51 trillion cubic metres (14% of global proven reserves). The facility...
Trump Threatens Iranian Infrastructure, Escalates Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint Risk
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued explicit threats to target Iranian power plants and bridges unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. The ultimatum directly threatens critical economic infrastructure near...
Trump Sets 48-Hour Iran Deadline, Threatens Critical Infrastructure Strikes
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued a 48-hour negotiation deadline to Iran following a White House-described rescue operation of a wounded American pilot, threatening strikes on Iranian critical infrastruct...
Trump Threatens Strait of Hormuz Infrastructure Over Iran Negotiation Deadline
WHAT HAPPENED President Trump issued an ultimatum threatening Strait of Hormuz infrastructure if Iran fails to meet an undisclosed negotiation deadline. The threat targets the world's most critical...
IRGC Navy Launches Operation True Promise 4, Strikes US-Israeli Targets Syria
WHAT HAPPENED Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy launched Operation True Promise 4, striking US-Israeli targets in Syria. The operation represents an escalation in regional military acti...
UN Security Council Reimpose Snapback Sanctions on Iran's Nuclear Program and Energy Exports
WHAT HAPPENED The UN Security Council reimposed comprehensive sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme following Tehran's withdrawal from JCPOA monitoring protocols. The sanctions package targets Iran...
Trump Threatens Iran Strikes Over Hormuz Strait Closure Risk
WHAT HAPPENED Trump threatened military strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges following potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait handles approximately 21% of global petroleum tra...
Houthis claim coordinated strike on Israeli port Eilat; Red Sea shipping risks escalate
WHAT HAPPENED Houthis claimed a coordinated strike with Iran and Hezbollah targeting the Israeli port of Eilat, escalating conflict near critical Red Sea shipping infrastructure. Eilat handles cont...
Israeli Strike Near Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant Escalates Regional Conflict Risks
WHAT HAPPENED An Israeli strike landed 75 metres from Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, according to IAEA reports. Bushehr represents Iran's only operational nuclear power plant and sits adjacent to...
Trump Threatens Military Action Over Iran's Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran demanding immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening military action if compliance is not achieved within an unspecified deadline. The...
Israeli Strike Kills Four in Haifa; Trump Threatens Iran with Escalatory Rhetoric
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli strike on Haifa killed 4 civilians whilst Trump issued an ultimatum to Tehran threatening Iran will be "living in Hell" if attacks continue. The direct targeting of Israeli ci...
Israel Strikes Iran's Pars Petrochemical Zone, Threatening Regional Energy Supply
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli forces conducted precision strikes on Iran's Pars Special Economic Zone petrochemical facilities, targeting downstream processing infrastructure without reported casualties. T...
Strikes near Iran nuclear facility trigger IAEA emergency alert, oil markets volatile
WHAT HAPPENED Strikes occurred near Iran's nuclear facilities, prompting the International Atomic Energy Agency to issue an emergency alarm regarding potential infrastructure damage. The incidents...
Ukrainian Drones Damage Russia's Primary Black Sea Oil Export Terminal
WHAT HAPPENED Ukrainian drones struck Russia's primary Black Sea oil export terminal, causing significant structural damage to loading infrastructure. The facility handles approximately 1.2 million...
Iran's Hormuz closure threat pushes oil futures above $110 amid escalating tensions
WHAT HAPPENED Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz following escalating military tensions, triggering oil futures to surge past $110/barrel. The strait handles approximately 21% of global...
US-Israeli strikes kill Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in Damascus, triggering retaliation threats.
WHAT HAPPENED US-Israeli joint strikes targeted senior Iranian officials in Damascus, killing Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders overseeing regional proxy operations. The strikes represent the mo...
Trump Threatens Iranian Infrastructure; Hormuz Strait Closure Risk Escalates Oil Markets
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued an ultimatum threatening to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges by 8pm Tuesday unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz. The threat directly targets critical infrastru...
Israel Assassinates Iranian Commander During Ceasefire Talks, Escalating Regional Tensions
WHAT HAPPENED Israel assassinated a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander during active ceasefire mediation efforts, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions. The strike o...
Trump Threatens Iran, Escalating Disruption Risk at Strait of Hormuz
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued escalatory warning language targeting Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy chokepoint handling approximately 21% of global seaborne petroleum...
Israel Strikes Iranian Petrochemical Plant as Ceasefire Negotiations Resume
WHAT HAPPENED Israel conducted airstrikes on an Iranian petrochemical complex located within a major natural gas field, marking direct targeting of Iranian energy infrastructure. The strikes occurr...
Trump Demands Iran Guarantee Strait of Hormuz Access; Oil Markets Spike
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran demanding guaranteed access through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 21% of global petroleum transits. The threat triggered immediate volatility i...
Israel Strikes Iran's South Pars Petrochemical Facility During Ceasefire Negotiations
WHAT HAPPENED Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran's South Pars petrochemical facility whilst regional mediators circulated new ceasefire proposals. South Pars represents Iran's largest gas condensa...
Airstrikes Target Iran's South Pars Gas Field, Threatening Global Energy Infrastructure
WHAT HAPPENED Airstrikes targeted Iran's South Pars special economic zone, the world's largest gas field containing approximately 30% of global reserves. The attacks occurred near critical energy i...
Trump's Hormuz Ultimatum Escalates Strait Closure Risk for Global Oil Supply
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued an ultimatum targeting Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 21% of global petroleum transits. The threat raises the probability of chokepo...
Israeli strikes target Iran's largest petrochemical facility; exports and revenues at risk.
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli Defence Forces conducted precision strikes against Iran's Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, the country's largest petrochemical facility producing 3.2 million tonnes...