Macro Event Feed

Oil fell 9%. Gold rose. This was not a peace trade

Brent shed the war premium as U.S.-Iran strikes paused, yet gold climbed and Convex's NVI held at 81.77. Markets removed one inflation tail without pricing a durable settlement.

Bitcoin falls below $65,000 as the crowded long starts to crack

A 92nd-percentile speculative long, a collapsing hash rate and real yields at a 2.7-sigma extreme are converging on the asset built to fall first.

Brent jumped to $96.72 and the oil view it broke is 33 hours old

Crude rose 3.9% in a session, clearing the $78-90 range the house view carried on Tuesday night. The inflation and credit readings it should be judged against have not been marked since.