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Analysis Archive, Page 2 | Convex

Home/Analysis/Archive · Page 2

Analysis Archive

Page 2 of 3 · 72 articles total

Geopolitics · May 6, 2026
Trump Pauses Hormuz Operation: What the Retreat Reveals
A military stand-down mid-operation is not de-escalation, it's a negotiating move with a price tag measured in barrels.
Geopolitics · May 6, 2026
Rubio Says Offensive Over; Tehran Says Otherwise
Contradictory ceasefire signals leave Hormuz risk unresolved and oil markets in limbo
Geopolitics · May 4, 2026
Project Freedom: Washington Escorts Oil Through Hormuz
U.S. military convoy protection for neutral shipping rewrites the Persian Gulf risk calculus overnight.
Equity · May 3, 2026
Spirit Airlines Collapse Puts Aviation's Fuel Bill in Focus
A carrier already on life support meets a war-driven oil spike; the sector math no longer works.
Energy · May 3, 2026

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Syria as Hormuz Bypass: Oil's New Map Prices Monday Open

With Hormuz effectively blocked, Syria's corridor role reframes the entire Middle East energy supply chain overnight.

Energy · Apr 30, 2026

Trump's Iran Blockade Threat Sends WTI Past $107: What Comes Next

A prolonged U.S. naval blockade of Iran would remove roughly 1.5–2 mb/d from a market already running tight on OPEC+ discipline.

Geopolitics · Apr 29, 2026

China's Sulphuric Acid Export Ban: Supply Chain Weaponization Arrives

Beijing's reported move targets the chemical backbone of fertiliser and metal processing worldwide

Credit · Apr 27, 2026

Hormuz Closure Threat Meets Mag-7 Earnings: Credit Is the Canary

Futures slide into thin liquidity while HY spreads sit near cycle tights, that gap is the story.

Energy · Apr 27, 2026

Oil outlook: Hormuz stays constrained as US-Iran talks collapse

With Brent above $101 and talks stalled, the supply-risk premium is repricing in real time

Geopolitics · Apr 21, 2026

US-Iran Ceasefire Expiration: What the Threats Actually Cost

Markets are pricing a fragile truce; the data says the risk premium is still too thin

Crypto · Apr 18, 2026

Kelp DAO's $292M rsETH Exploit Hits DeFi Where It Hurts Most

A LayerZero bridge failure at this scale tests whether restaking's TVL is as deep as it looks

Energy · Apr 18, 2026

Iran Closes Hormuz: What Monday's Open Will Actually Price

Markets are frozen at Friday's close, the repricing queue is building in silence.

Geopolitics · Apr 15, 2026

Hormuz Blockade: Who Bleeds First When 20% of Global Oil Is at Risk

Japan, South Korea, and India face the sharpest immediate exposure; Europe isn't far behind.

Energy · Apr 14, 2026

Iran Oil Blockade: The Supply Math That Moves Crude Prices

With Brent already at $97 and physical WTI near $114, a naval blockade removes ambiguity about the supply shock direction.

Geopolitics · Apr 14, 2026

Bessent's 'Bit of Pain' Framing Hands Markets a Policy Put in Reverse

When the Treasury secretary tells the BBC growth sacrifice is acceptable, that's not reassurance, it's a ceiling on stimulus.

Macro · Apr 14, 2026

Six Policy Signals in Six Hours: What the Noise Is Actually Telling You

From Brazil's rare earth gambit to the Warsh hearing, the signal density is unusually high.

Geopolitics · Apr 14, 2026

Bessent Tells the Fed to Stand Down While Iran Burns

A Treasury Secretary linking war risk to rate guidance is either bold coordination or a very public shove.

Equity · Apr 14, 2026

JPMorgan, Citi, and Bloom Energy Beat in a Single Morning

Trading desks are printing money from volatility; the question is whether the economy is generating it.

Macro · Apr 13, 2026

Signal Cluster: Crypto Inflows, Farm Stress, and Tokenization Mark a Regime Shift

Four converging signals in six hours reveal the fault lines of a reflation-to-stagflation transition.

Crypto · Apr 13, 2026

Crypto Regulatory Inflection: Legislative Momentum Meets Tokenisation Reality

Three signals in six hours mark a structural shift, not noise, for digital asset positioning.

equity · Apr 13, 2026

The Dollar-Oil Dance: When Currency Strength Rewrites Energy Markets

A relationship forged in the 1970s petrodollar era remains one of finance's most consequential, and most frequently misread, inverse correlations.

Equity · Apr 13, 2026

Three Signals, One Direction: Risk Appetite Is Repricing Fast

Goldman, BlackRock, and Brussels all moved in the same 6-hour window, the crowded short is running out of time.

Geopolitics · Apr 13, 2026

Orban's Fall Is a European Risk Repricing, Not a Peace Dividend

Hungary's political rupture reshapes EU cohesion and forint dynamics before markets have had a chance to react.

Rates · Apr 9, 2026

Warsh at the Fed: Hawkish Pivot Risk Collides With Stagflation Trap

A May leadership transition would tighten policy into a weakening economy, the worst possible timing.

Crypto · Apr 9, 2026

Crypto's Regulatory Trilemma: Enforcement, Legitimacy, and the Stablecoin Clock

Three simultaneous signals in six hours reveal a regulatory regime in active, uncoordinated transition.

Macro · Apr 7, 2026

Anthropic's Power Grab Is a Macro Signal, Not Just a Tech Story

Multi-gigawatt AI compute deals are now competing directly with energy markets and capital allocation.

Geopolitics · Apr 5, 2026

Fed's Iran Acknowledgment Is the Stagflation Trap Closing in Real Time

A hold with geopolitical carve-out language locks the Fed into paralysis, and markets haven't priced it yet.

Currency · Apr 4, 2026

The Portfolio Carry Trade Is Starting to Crack: 2026 Analysis

USD/JPY at 160.16 is not a currency position, it is a $4-6 trillion structural risk hiding in plain sight.

Macro · Apr 4, 2026

The April 10 Reckoning That Markets Have Already Lost

WTI at $111 has mechanically pre-loaded the next CPI print, the only question is whether markets are ready for the answer.

Macro · Apr 4, 2026

The Producer Price Pipeline Is the Inflation Story Everyone Is Missing

While markets fixate on CPI headlines, a quieter upstream surge is building the next wave of consumer price pressure.