ExxonMobil (XOM) vs Caterpillar (CAT)
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with a market cap of $642.9 billion, up 27.6 percent year-to-date and 57.86 percent over the trailing 12 months. CAT closed at $818.09 with a market cap of $380.65 billion, up 32 percent year-to-date and at an all-time high of $845.27 set on April 23, 2026.
Also known as: Exxon Mobil (XOM) (STK_XOM, Exxon) · Caterpillar (CAT) (STK_CAT, Caterpillar)
Why This Comparison Matters
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with a market cap of $642.9 billion, up 27.6 percent year-to-date and 57.86 percent over the trailing 12 months. CAT closed at $818.09 with a market cap of $380.65 billion, up 32 percent year-to-date and at an all-time high of $845.27 set on April 23, 2026. Both stocks have outperformed SPY substantially this year, but for completely different reasons: XOM is being repriced on the Iran war (WTI surged from $73 to $114 since the February 28 strikes) while CAT is being repriced on a data-center power-generation backlog plus Chinese stimulus. The pair is one of the cleanest available studies of how two cyclical names can rally simultaneously without sharing a driver.
The April 2026 Snapshot: XOM $154.40, CAT $818.09
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with annual dividend $4.12 per share (yield 2.66 percent). CAT closed at $818.09 with annual dividend $6.04 per share (yield 0.74 percent). XOM market cap is $642.9 billion versus CAT at $380.65 billion. Both names sit near or at all-time highs.
Year-to-date 2026 returns: XOM +27.6 percent, CAT +32 percent. SPY is approximately -2 percent on the same window after the Iran-war drawdown. The 24-month picture: XOM +58 percent, CAT +73 percent. Both outperform SPY at +28 percent over the same window, but with very different paths. XOM has been driven by oil price volatility (WTI $55 in December 2025 to $114 peak April 6, 2026); CAT has been driven by analyst upgrades and a specific industrial demand story disconnected from oil.
Two Cyclicals, Two Different Cycles
Cyclical-vs-cyclical pairs are usually expected to track each other through global growth conditions. XOM and CAT historically did this through 2010 to 2018: when global PMIs rose, both rallied; when they fell, both fell. The correlation across that period was approximately +0.65.
The 2024 to 2026 period broke the historical pattern. XOM's primary driver became geopolitical: WTI moved on Russia-Ukraine, OPEC+ decisions, and most recently the Iran war. CAT's primary driver became technology-cycle adjacent: data-center power generation creates demand for CAT's industrial-engine business that does not depend on oil prices. The result is that the XOM-CAT correlation has fallen to approximately +0.15 over the trailing 24 months, the lowest reading since the early 1990s. Two cyclicals that used to move together no longer do.
XOM's Iran-Driven 28% YTD Surge
WTI traded at approximately $73 per barrel on February 27, 2026, the day before US-Israel strikes on Iran. By April 6 WTI had peaked at $114.01, a 56 percent move in 5 weeks. The single largest energy price shock since the 1973 oil embargo. XOM stock moved from approximately $121 (February 27 close) to peak $159 on April 25, 2026, roughly +31 percent.
XOM's upstream segment is highly oil-price sensitive: every $10 per barrel sustained move adds approximately $3 to $4 billion to annual operating cash flow. Q1 2026 results (reported May 1, 2026, just outside this window) are expected to capture only a partial month of post-strike pricing; Q2 is when the full Iran-war benefit materializes. The market has priced this through the rally, putting XOM at a price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 13.4x trailing earnings (modest by tech standards but elevated for energy). The forward P/E using Q2 2026 estimated cash flow drops to approximately 11x, suggesting the market has not fully priced sustained $100+ oil into XOM yet.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Caterpillar (CAT) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Exxon Mobil (XOM). Computed from 1,289 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Caterpillar (CAT) rises 0.38% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.65%. 129 qualifying events; Caterpillar (CAT) closed positive in 49% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the April 30, 2026 prices and dividends for XOM and CAT?+
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with annual dividend $4.12 (yield 2.66 percent), market cap $642.9 billion. CAT closed at $818.09 with annual dividend $6.04 (yield 0.74 percent), market cap $380.65 billion, hitting an all-time high of $845.27 on April 23, 2026. Year-to-date 2026 returns: XOM +27.6 percent, CAT +32 percent.
Why has the XOM-CAT correlation broken down?+
XOM-CAT correlation has fallen from approximately +0.65 (2010 to 2018) to approximately +0.15 over the trailing 24 months, the lowest in 30 years. The cause is independent cycle drivers: XOM is now driven primarily by geopolitical oil events (Iran 2026, Russia 2022) while CAT is driven primarily by the data-center power-generation capex backlog plus mining/construction cycles. Two cyclicals that used to share global-growth exposure no longer do because their revenue mixes have diverged.
Why is CAT's P/E 43 while XOM's is 13?+
CAT trades at a P/E of 43.21 reflecting the market pricing sustained 7 to 10 percent EPS growth from the data-center capex backlog plus secular grid-electrification and mining cycles. XOM trades at a P/E of approximately 13.4x reflecting cyclical earnings power that the market expects to mean-revert with oil prices. The gap is structural: CAT is being valued like a tech-adjacent industrial growth stock, XOM like a mature commodity producer. The risk for CAT is multiple compression if the data-center capex cycle slows; the risk for XOM is sustained oil decline.
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