ExxonMobil (XOM) vs Caterpillar (CAT)
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with a market cap of $642.9 billion, up 27.6 percent year-to-date and 57.86 percent over the trailing 12 months. CAT closed at $818.09 with a market cap of $380.65 billion, up 32 percent year-to-date and at an all-time high of $845.27 set on April 23, 2026.
Also known as: Exxon Mobil (XOM) (STK_XOM, Exxon) · Caterpillar (CAT) (STK_CAT, Caterpillar)
Why This Comparison Matters
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with a market cap of $642.9 billion, up 27.6 percent year-to-date and 57.86 percent over the trailing 12 months. CAT closed at $818.09 with a market cap of $380.65 billion, up 32 percent year-to-date and at an all-time high of $845.27 set on April 23, 2026. Both stocks have outperformed SPY substantially this year, but for completely different reasons: XOM is being repriced on the Iran war (WTI surged from $73 to $114 since the February 28 strikes) while CAT is being repriced on a data-center power-generation backlog plus Chinese stimulus. The pair is one of the cleanest available studies of how two cyclical names can rally simultaneously without sharing a driver.
The April 2026 Snapshot: XOM $154.40, CAT $818.09
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with annual dividend $4.12 per share (yield 2.66 percent). CAT closed at $818.09 with annual dividend $6.04 per share (yield 0.74 percent). XOM market cap is $642.9 billion versus CAT at $380.65 billion. Both names sit near or at all-time highs.
Year-to-date 2026 returns: XOM +27.6 percent, CAT +32 percent. SPY is approximately -2 percent on the same window after the Iran-war drawdown. The 24-month picture: XOM +58 percent, CAT +73 percent. Both outperform SPY at +28 percent over the same window, but with very different paths. XOM has been driven by oil price volatility (WTI $55 in December 2025 to $114 peak April 6, 2026); CAT has been driven by analyst upgrades and a specific industrial demand story disconnected from oil.
Two Cyclicals, Two Different Cycles
Cyclical-vs-cyclical pairs are usually expected to track each other through global growth conditions. XOM and CAT historically did this through 2010 to 2018: when global PMIs rose, both rallied; when they fell, both fell. The correlation across that period was approximately +0.65.
The 2024 to 2026 period broke the historical pattern. XOM's primary driver became geopolitical: WTI moved on Russia-Ukraine, OPEC+ decisions, and most recently the Iran war. CAT's primary driver became technology-cycle adjacent: data-center power generation creates demand for CAT's industrial-engine business that does not depend on oil prices. The result is that the XOM-CAT correlation has fallen to approximately +0.15 over the trailing 24 months, the lowest reading since the early 1990s. Two cyclicals that used to move together no longer do.
XOM's Iran-Driven 28% YTD Surge
WTI traded at approximately $73 per barrel on February 27, 2026, the day before US-Israel strikes on Iran. By April 6 WTI had peaked at $114.01, a 56 percent move in 5 weeks. The single largest energy price shock since the 1973 oil embargo. XOM stock moved from approximately $121 (February 27 close) to peak $159 on April 25, 2026, roughly +31 percent.
XOM's upstream segment is highly oil-price sensitive: every $10 per barrel sustained move adds approximately $3 to $4 billion to annual operating cash flow. Q1 2026 results (reported May 1, 2026, just outside this window) are expected to capture only a partial month of post-strike pricing; Q2 is when the full Iran-war benefit materializes. The market has priced this through the rally, putting XOM at a price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 13.4x trailing earnings (modest by tech standards but elevated for energy). The forward P/E using Q2 2026 estimated cash flow drops to approximately 11x, suggesting the market has not fully priced sustained $100+ oil into XOM yet.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Caterpillar (CAT) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Exxon Mobil (XOM). Computed from 1,281 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Caterpillar (CAT) rises 0.19% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.66%. 129 qualifying events; Caterpillar (CAT) closed positive in 48% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the April 30, 2026 prices and dividends for XOM and CAT?+
XOM closed at $154.40 on April 29, 2026 with annual dividend $4.12 (yield 2.66 percent), market cap $642.9 billion. CAT closed at $818.09 with annual dividend $6.04 (yield 0.74 percent), market cap $380.65 billion, hitting an all-time high of $845.27 on April 23, 2026. Year-to-date 2026 returns: XOM +27.6 percent, CAT +32 percent.
Why has the XOM-CAT correlation broken down?+
XOM-CAT correlation has fallen from approximately +0.65 (2010 to 2018) to approximately +0.15 over the trailing 24 months, the lowest in 30 years. The cause is independent cycle drivers: XOM is now driven primarily by geopolitical oil events (Iran 2026, Russia 2022) while CAT is driven primarily by the data-center power-generation capex backlog plus mining/construction cycles. Two cyclicals that used to share global-growth exposure no longer do because their revenue mixes have diverged.
Why is CAT's P/E 43 while XOM's is 13?+
CAT trades at a P/E of 43.21 reflecting the market pricing sustained 7 to 10 percent EPS growth from the data-center capex backlog plus secular grid-electrification and mining cycles. XOM trades at a P/E of approximately 13.4x reflecting cyclical earnings power that the market expects to mean-revert with oil prices. The gap is structural: CAT is being valued like a tech-adjacent industrial growth stock, XOM like a mature commodity producer. The risk for CAT is multiple compression if the data-center capex cycle slows; the risk for XOM is sustained oil decline.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.