Job Openings vs Nonfarm Payrolls
JOLTS Job Openings (FRED JTSJOL) measures labor demand from JOLTS survey. Nonfarm Payrolls (FRED PAYEMS) measures total nonfarm employment.
Also known as: JOLTS Job Openings (job openings, JOLTS) · Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP, payrolls, jobs report)
Why This Comparison Matters
JOLTS Job Openings (FRED JTSJOL) measures labor demand from JOLTS survey. Nonfarm Payrolls (FRED PAYEMS) measures total nonfarm employment. April 2026: job openings approximately 7.6 million (down from 12.0M peak March 2022); nonfarm payrolls approximately 159 million total. Job openings/total payrolls ratio approximately 4.8 percent (declining from peak 7.5 percent in March 2022 toward pre-pandemic 3-4 percent). Openings are forward demand. Payrolls are realized hiring stock. The ratio captures labor-demand pipeline trajectory + employer hiring discipline.
The April 2026 Configuration
JOLTS Job Openings ~7.6M (April 2026, latest February 2026 data; March releases mid-May 2026). Down from 12.0M peak March 2022. 2024 average ~8.5M. 2025 average ~7.9M. Steady decline.
Nonfarm payrolls ~159M total (April 2026). Job growth slowing: 369K total Jan 2025 to March 2026 (~25K monthly average vs 200K+ pre-pandemic).
Openings/payroll ratio: 7.6M / 159M = 4.78%. Pre-pandemic average 3.0-4.0%. Currently mid-range.
Openings/unemployed ratio (Beveridge curve): 7.6M openings / 7.0M unemployed = 1.09x. Pre-pandemic 1.0x average. Near normal.
The combined April 2026 reading: labor demand moderating from 2022 peaks. Approaching pre-pandemic equilibrium. Hiring slowing reflecting employer discipline.
Why Openings Lead Payrolls
Openings are forward demand indicator. Employers post openings before hiring (typically 30-90 days lag). Payroll growth reflects realized hiring.
Lead-lag mechanics: openings rise -> hiring follows 1-3 months -> payrolls rise. Openings fall -> hiring slows 1-3 months -> payrolls slow.
Falling openings (current April 2026) signal payroll growth slowing ahead. Already evident in 369K total jobs Jan 2025-March 2026.
The practical implication: monitoring openings provides 1-3 month forward signal for payroll growth. Sustained openings below 7M would signal payroll stalls.
How Openings and Payrolls Diverge
Openings up + payrolls up: tight labor market expansion. 2021-2022 prototype.
Openings down + payrolls down: labor market deterioration. Recession-imminent or recession.
Openings down + payrolls up: 2024-2025 pattern. Demand cooling but hiring continuing at slower pace. Soft landing.
Openings up + payrolls flat: labor supply-constrained. 2022 partial pattern.
April 2026: openings down + payrolls up modestly = soft landing + Beveridge Curve normalization.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are job openings and nonfarm payrolls?+
JOLTS Job Openings (FRED JTSJOL) measures labor demand from JOLTS survey. Nonfarm Payrolls (FRED PAYEMS) measures total nonfarm employment. April 2026: job openings ~7.6M (latest February 2026 data); nonfarm payrolls ~159M total. Down from openings peak 12.0M (March 2022). 2024 average ~8.5M. 2025 ~7.9M. Steady decline. Job growth slowing: 369K total Jan 2025-March 2026 (~25K monthly vs 200K+ pre-pandemic). Openings/payroll ratio 4.78% (pre-pandemic 3.0-4.0%). Openings/unemployed ratio 1.09x (pre-pandemic 1.0x average).
Why do openings lead payrolls?+
Openings are forward demand indicator. Employers post openings before hiring (typically 30-90 days lag). Payroll growth reflects realized hiring. Lead-lag mechanics: openings rise -> hiring follows 1-3 months -> payrolls rise. Openings fall -> hiring slows 1-3 months -> payrolls slow. Falling openings (current April 2026) signal payroll growth slowing ahead. Already evident in 369K total jobs Jan 2025-March 2026. Monitoring openings provides 1-3 month forward signal for payroll growth. Sustained openings below 7M would signal payroll stalls.
How do openings and payrolls diverge?+
Openings up + payrolls up: tight labor market expansion. 2021-2022 prototype. Openings down + payrolls down: labor market deterioration. Recession-imminent or recession. Openings down + payrolls up: 2024-2025 pattern. Demand cooling but hiring continuing at slower pace. Soft landing. Openings up + payrolls flat: labor supply-constrained. 2022 partial pattern. April 2026: openings down + payrolls up modestly = soft landing + Beveridge Curve normalization.
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