JPMorgan vs 10Y-2Y Yield Curve
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread (FRED series T10Y2Y) sit in a textbook bank-NIM relationship that broke down during the 2022-2024 inversion and has reasserted dramatically through the 'Great Un-Inversion' of 2025-2026. The 2s10s spread reached roughly +54 basis points by mid-April 2026 with the 2-year near 3.75 percent and the 10-year near 4.31 percent, the widest steepening since 2022.
Also known as: JPMorgan (JPM) (STK_JPM, JPMorgan) · 10Y-2Y Yield Spread (yield curve, yield spread, 10-2 spread, 2s10s)
Why This Comparison Matters
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread (FRED series T10Y2Y) sit in a textbook bank-NIM relationship that broke down during the 2022-2024 inversion and has reasserted dramatically through the 'Great Un-Inversion' of 2025-2026. The 2s10s spread reached roughly +54 basis points by mid-April 2026 with the 2-year near 3.75 percent and the 10-year near 4.31 percent, the widest steepening since 2022. JPM's Q1 2026 print on April 14 delivered EPS of $5.94 against an estimate near $5.45, revenue up 10 percent year-over-year to $50.5 billion, net income of $16.5 billion, and 23 percent ROTCE. The bank guided full-year 2026 net interest income to a record $104.5 billion, anchoring the curve-leads-NIM template that the pair was built to capture.
What JPM and the 2s10s spread actually measure
JPMorgan Chase is the largest US bank by assets at roughly $4.0 trillion as of Q1 2026 and the most diversified major bank, with Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management all sized at meaningful contribution. The 2s10s spread is the difference between the 10-year and 2-year constant-maturity Treasury yields, available daily on FRED as T10Y2Y, and is the canonical signal both for recession probability (when inverted) and for bank net-interest-margin tailwinds (when steeply positive).
The textbook relationship runs through the deposit-and-loan repricing channel: banks fund roughly two-thirds of their book through deposits with effective duration under one year, while the loan and securities book has duration concentrated in the 5 to 10-year segment. A positively sloped curve therefore translates mechanically into a positive net interest margin spread, while an inverted curve compresses margins. JPM has historically been the cleanest single-name proxy for this dynamic among the major US banks because of its scale and its diversified deposit base.
The Great Un-Inversion and how the pair reasserted
From July 2022 through August 2024, the 2s10s curve was inverted continuously, hitting a deepest point of -110 basis points in March 2023 (the deepest inversion since 1981). JPM rallied roughly 60 percent over that window despite the textbook NIM headwind, driven by trading revenue strength, the May 2023 First Republic acquisition for $10.6 billion that added roughly $173 billion in assets, and an outsized investment-banking share of capital markets activity that overrode the NIM compression in the deposit-and-loan book.
The pair reasserted from August 2024 onward as the curve disinverted and then steepened. By March 2026 the 2-year had fallen to roughly 3.75 percent on Fed cuts while the 10-year held near 4.30 percent on persistent term-premium widening, opening the +54 basis point spread that prevailed through April 2026 reporting. JPM's April 14 Q1 2026 print captured the steepening directly: net interest income guidance of $104.5 billion for FY2026 is the highest in the bank's history and roughly $7 billion above the Q4 2025 trailing run-rate. The financial-sector outperformance documented in the FinancialContent April 14 bond-market review is the cross-asset confirmation of the pair signal.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 10Y-2Y Yield Spread has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in JPMorgan (JPM). Computed from 1,225 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 10Y-2Y Yield Spread falls 0.00% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of -3.85%. 123 qualifying events; 10Y-2Y Yield Spread closed positive in 41% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 2s10s spread and where do I find current data?+
The 2s10s spread, also called T10Y2Y on FRED, is the difference between the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield and the 2-year constant-maturity Treasury yield. The Federal Reserve Board publishes both component series daily, and FRED computes T10Y2Y as a derived series back to 1976. As of mid-April 2026 the spread was approximately +54 basis points with the 2-year near 3.75 percent and the 10-year near 4.31 percent.
How does curve steepening help JPMorgan earnings?+
Banks fund roughly two-thirds of their book through deposits with effective duration under one year, while loans and securities sit at 5 to 10-year duration. A positively sloped curve therefore expands net interest margin mechanically as deposit costs reprice slower than asset yields. JPM's Q1 2026 NIM expanded to 2.74 percent from 2.66 percent in Q4 2025, the largest sequential expansion since 2022, and management guided FY2026 NII to a record $104.5 billion.
Why did JPM rally during the 2022-2024 curve inversion?+
Three drivers overrode the NIM headwind during the deepest inversion since 1981 (-110 basis points in March 2023). First, JPM's deposit beta ran near 0.3 versus the textbook assumption of 0.5, so deposit costs rose less than expected. Second, the May 2023 First Republic acquisition added roughly $173 billion in assets at favorable terms. Third, capital markets revenue benefited from the volatility cycle. The 60 percent JPM rally during a deep inversion is the historical reminder that the textbook bank-NIM template has multiple working channels.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.