Based on current macro regime conditions and hy credit spread (oas)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 281 bps by 2026-12-31 ( +1.6% from 276 bps today). The 68% confidence range is 207 bps to 354 bps; the wider 95% range is 137 bps to 424 bps. Methodology below the headline.
HY Credit Spread (OAS) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 2,970 observations of HY Credit Spread (OAS) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/03]
Δ = divergence from -5.2% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 265 | -10.97% | 30.96% | -0.35 | 42.4% | -10.97% |
| 3Y | 787 | -16.68% | 33.65% | -0.50 | 41.9% | -42.14% |
| 5Y | 1,309 | -3.80% | 36.15% | -0.11 | 43.7% | -17.61% |
| 10Y | 2,614 | -7.93% | 34.39% | -0.23 | 41.8% | -56.19% |
| All | 2,970 | -5.23% | 33.43% | -0.16 | 42.6% | -45.67% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How HY Credit Spread (OAS) has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 1,047 | 0.91% | 7.67% | 4.55% | -2.22% | 45.6% |
| Normal (15-25) | 1,444 | 1.51% | -1.08% | 3.07% | -4.35% | 45.9% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 355 | -4.47% | -8.33% | -20.91% | -22.53% | 21.8% |
| Extreme (>40) | 40 | -10.70% | -32.01% | -52.38% | -57.88% | 0.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 543 | -1.69% | -7.40% | -15.94% | -18.38% | 10.3% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 1,626 | 1.21% | 2.89% | 1.22% | 0.27% | 50.2% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 670 | 0.01% | 2.78% | 9.70% | 2.63% | 51.6% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 173 | -1.19% | -7.75% | 11.52% | 5.57% | 60.5% |
| Neutral (middle) | 557 | -0.74% | 2.17% | 19.03% | 14.88% | 72.7% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 2,088 | 0.81% | 0.99% | -4.35% | -10.00% | 35.6% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads HY Credit Spread (OAS); negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | 0d | 0.545 | 0.545 | coincident |
| VIX | Volatility leader | 0d | 0.478 | 0.478 | coincident |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | 0d | -0.409 | -0.409 | coincident |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | 0d | 0.283 | 0.283 | coincident |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | -0.260 | -0.260 | coincident |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | -10d | 0.169 | 0.072 | lags target by 10d |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | -4d | 0.159 | 0.046 | coincident |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | -3d | 0.067 | 0.046 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where HY Credit Spread (OAS) sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2025 | 3.0900 | 0.97% | -9.71% | -8.09% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 2.6500 | 20.38% | 19.25% | 5.66% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2.6000 | 10.00% | 23.46% | 16.92% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | 3.2000 | 5.00% | -14.37% | -9.06% |
| May 1, 2024 | 3.2100 | -3.74% | -1.25% | 25.23% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Mar 9, 202018.44%
- Apr 3, 202517.25%
- Mar 16, 202014.64%
- Mar 12, 202012.25%
- Mar 6, 202011.68%
- May 12, 2025-10.76%
- Apr 9, 2020-9.65%
- Nov 9, 2020-9.64%
- Feb 2, 2023-8.58%
- Dec 14, 2023-8.44%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.00% | 41.6% | 257 |
| February | 0.00% | 39.8% | 246 |
| March | 0.36% | 50.4% | 266 |
| April | -0.14% | 39.1% | 253 |
| May | 0.01% | 44.9% | 256 |
| June | 0.02% | 41.8% | 239 |
| July | -0.22% | 42.3% | 246 |
| August | 0.04% | 43.3% | 247 |
| September | 0.04% | 42.3% | 239 |
| October | -0.00% | 39.8% | 246 |
| November | -0.03% | 44.5% | 238 |
| December | -0.08% | 40.7% | 236 |
N = 2,970 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-18 09:30Z
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Default rates
- •Monetary policy
- •Economic growth
- •Risk appetite
- •Leverage levels
Historical Volatility
Asymmetric: tight in calm, explosive in stress
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
How HY OAS Forecasts Have Held Up Historically
High-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) forecasts share the same track record as HYG: strong on direction (HY OAS direction tends to be persistent) but weak on magnitude. Consensus year-ahead OAS forecasts have missed the realized peak by 200bp+ in every recession cycle since 2000. The fastest historical widening was March 2020 (1,100bp peak in 23 business days).
Regime-conditional models on HY OAS achieve approximately 72% directional accuracy on monthly windows, the highest of any single-asset regime read because OAS is itself the regime variable.
Regime Sensitivity for HY OAS
HY OAS is the credit-side regime variable. Below 350bp signals late-cycle complacency; 350-600bp normal; 600-800bp stress; above 800bp recession-imminent or recession-confirmed.
The April 2026 setup has HY OAS at 284bp (2.84%), below the 350bp complacency threshold and tighter than the post-2021 average. The regime conditional reads as unambiguously credit-Goldilocks but with a structural caveat: spreads this tight historically have either preceded extension melt-ups (1996-1999) or sharp risk-off corrections when complacency breaks (2007 H2, 2018 Q4).
What Drives HY OAS Forecast Errors
Three issues drive HY OAS forecast errors. First, retail flow in and out of HY products is large as a share of market liquidity, producing dislocations during stress that the index OAS doesn't fully capture. Authorized-participant arbitrage normalizes most disconnects within a week but the path matters for short-horizon forecasts.
Second, energy-sector weight (~14% of HY) means oil price shocks transmit to the index OAS even when broad credit is stable. WTI moves below $60 push energy issuers toward distress and widen the index by 20-50bp.
Third, the default-rate signal is lagging. Realized defaults follow OAS widening with a 6-12 month lag, not lead it. Models that use trailing default rates as a credit-quality input are systematically late.
How to Use This Forecast in Practice
For HY OAS, the level itself is the forecast. Below 350bp positions are at late-cycle complacency, scale risk down; above 600bp positions are stressed, scale risk up if regime is shifting toward recovery.
The cleanest cross-asset stress signal is the HY-IG spread. When HY widens faster than IG, credit stress is concentrating in lower-quality issuers; when both widen together, broad credit deterioration is underway. The 68% band on HY OAS should be treated as asymmetric: tighter on the upside (OAS floors near 250bp limit further compression), wider on the downside (OAS can widen 500bp+ in a month under stress).
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push HY Credit Spread (OAS) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift HY Credit Spread (OAS) depend on the current macro regime. Financial conditions indexes are the Fed's dashboard. The Chicago Fed's NFCI blends over 100 inputs spanning equity volatility, credit spreads, funding stress, and leverage. Real yields across the TIPS curve reveal the true cost of capital after inflation, while liquidity measures (reverse repo, TGA, reserves) show whether the system is flush or stressed. Together they form the transmission belt from policy rate to real economy. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Credit & Financial Stress category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push HY Credit Spread (OAS) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive HY Credit Spread (OAS) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see HY Credit Spread (OAS) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for HY Credit Spread (OAS)?▾
Historical ranges for HY Credit Spread (OAS) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the HY Credit Spread (OAS) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the HY Credit Spread (OAS) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for HY Credit Spread (OAS) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.