Based on current macro regime conditions and uk 10y gilt yield (eom)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 12.66% by 2026-12-31 ( +195.7% from 4.28% today). The 68% confidence range is -173.93% to 199.26%; the wider 95% range is -353.07% to 378.39%. Methodology below the headline.
UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 6,295 observations of UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from -0.8% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 252 | 7.32% | 20.07% | 0.36 | 47.8% | 7.31% |
| 3Y | 758 | 6.06% | 22.80% | 0.27 | 49.0% | 19.26% |
| 5Y | 1,262 | 68.73% | 61.34% | 1.12 | 51.2% | 1267.00% |
| 10Y | 2,526 | 18.76% | 8162.01% | 0.00 | 50.3% | 457.95% |
| All | 6,295 | -0.76% | 5169.52% | -0.00 | 49.2% | -17.36% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 2,063 | 2.15% | 4.93% | 5.80% | -2.22% | 47.5% |
| Normal (15-25) | 2,988 | 21.21% | 45.98% | 135.34% | -8.95% | 37.5% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 935 | -23.56% | 69.54% | 544.27% | -1.29% | 48.6% |
| Extreme (>40) | 191 | -348.57% | -220.85% | 945.99% | 2.87% | 54.5% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 766 | 4.91% | 8.64% | 10.70% | 4.14% | 61.1% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 2,067 | -14.66% | 74.97% | 524.94% | 4.04% | 51.3% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 3,275 | 1.52% | 2.69% | 28.07% | -11.90% | 34.5% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 908 | 7.31% | 23.24% | 139.44% | 4.04% | 57.7% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 1,382 | 81.13% | 154.43% | 386.84% | 6.05% | 53.4% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 558 | -232.84% | -92.53% | 858.44% | 8.78% | 53.4% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 964 | 74.60% | 121.75% | 302.90% | -28.69% | 12.9% |
| Neutral (middle) | 1,206 | 6.43% | 52.73% | 175.03% | 9.40% | 55.1% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 2,550 | -48.41% | -15.22% | 205.80% | -4.49% | 45.4% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM); negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | +55d | 0.965 | -0.002 | leads target by 55d |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | +59d | 0.206 | 0.052 | leads target by 59d |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | +60d | 0.118 | -0.014 | weak |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | +58d | 0.089 | 0.000 | weak |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | +52d | -0.082 | 0.016 | weak |
| VIX | Volatility leader | +1d | 0.075 | -0.020 | weak |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | +56d | 0.066 | -0.002 | weak |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | +58d | -0.048 | 0.005 | weak |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | +59d | 0.025 | 0.008 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | 4.1772 | -2.59% | -6.84% | 7.63% |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 4.2602 | -5.14% | -8.68% | -6.96% |
| Jun 10, 2024 | 4.2067 | -5.48% | -6.52% | -3.42% |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 4.2165 | -13.58% | -6.97% | -2.53% |
| Aug 10, 2023 | 4.4853 | -6.52% | -19.11% | -16.72% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Jun 12, 202025300.00%
- Jan 21, 20211633.33%
- Jan 29, 20211458.33%
- Nov 9, 2020732.61%
- Jun 3, 2020314.10%
- Jun 16, 2020-3566.67%
- Oct 9, 2020-2192.31%
- Jun 24, 2020-981.63%
- May 27, 2020-860.00%
- Oct 27, 2020-538.24%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.61% | 49.8% | 530 |
| February | 0.68% | 48.4% | 504 |
| March | 0.14% | 50.4% | 542 |
| April | 0.27% | 53.4% | 485 |
| May | -2.00% | 48.5% | 495 |
| June | 38.69% | 52.3% | 528 |
| July | -0.86% | 43.7% | 554 |
| August | 0.32% | 47.6% | 529 |
| September | -0.43% | 50.7% | 534 |
| October | -4.99% | 51.2% | 555 |
| November | 1.21% | 47.5% | 535 |
| December | -3.07% | 47.7% | 503 |
N = 6,295 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-17 19:00Z
Forecast Approach
scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. The projection above is the sample-weighted central estimate across current macro regime anchors; the scenario list below adds qualitative context.
Consensus source: ECB/BoE forward guidance
Key Drivers & Risks
- •ECB/BoE policy
- •European inflation
- •Growth differentials
- •Political risk
Historical Volatility
Moderate: similar to US rates
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) depend on the current macro regime. European markets carry the sovereign debt overhang of the post-2010 era in their pricing. Bund-BTP spreads remain the cleanest gauge of periphery stress, while HICP drives ECB policy expectations. UK macro diverges post-Brexit, with sterling volatility and Gilt-Bund spreads carrying political risk premia that sometimes detach entirely from U.S. moves. Convex tracks these drivers live across the EU/UK Rates category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM)?▾
Historical ranges for UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for UK 10Y Gilt Yield (EOM) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.