Based on current macro regime conditions and usd/thb's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 32.22 by 2026-12-31 ( +0.0% from 32.21 today). The 68% confidence range is 30.57 to 33.87; the wider 95% range is 28.99 to 35.45. Methodology below the headline.
USD/THB Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 6,259 observations of USD/THB history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from -1.4% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 251 | -2.19% | 8.18% | -0.27 | 46.4% | -2.19% |
| 3Y | 751 | -1.53% | 8.30% | -0.18 | 47.9% | -4.51% |
| 5Y | 1,251 | 0.72% | 8.14% | 0.09 | 48.9% | 3.67% |
| 10Y | 2,498 | -0.88% | 6.65% | -0.13 | 46.1% | -8.49% |
| All | 6,259 | -1.38% | 6.34% | -0.22 | 45.9% | -29.27% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How USD/THB has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 2,077 | -0.19% | -0.67% | -2.65% | -1.73% | 35.9% |
| Normal (15-25) | 3,018 | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.38% | -0.33% | 47.6% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 938 | -0.32% | -0.65% | -1.48% | -2.39% | 30.4% |
| Extreme (>40) | 191 | 0.18% | -1.05% | -4.74% | -4.82% | 5.2% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 781 | -1.08% | -2.81% | -5.54% | -5.24% | 22.3% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 2,114 | -0.10% | -0.30% | -1.59% | -1.47% | 37.5% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 3,338 | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.19% | -0.64% | 44.7% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 913 | 0.19% | -0.35% | -0.83% | -2.36% | 35.4% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 1,361 | 0.09% | 0.63% | -0.12% | -0.07% | 49.1% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 551 | -0.44% | -1.05% | -0.73% | -1.85% | 25.4% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 997 | 0.40% | 1.11% | 3.25% | 3.41% | 71.0% |
| Neutral (middle) | 1,232 | -0.19% | 0.04% | 1.07% | 0.03% | 50.0% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 2,604 | -0.10% | -0.47% | -1.31% | -1.72% | 36.5% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads USD/THB; negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | 0d | 0.467 | 0.467 | coincident |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | -0.219 | -0.219 | coincident |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | 0.146 | 0.146 | weak |
| VIX | Volatility leader | 0d | 0.109 | 0.109 | weak |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | +52d | 0.074 | 0.017 | weak |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | -55d | 0.057 | 0.023 | weak |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | +1d | 0.055 | 0.036 | weak |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | +44d | 0.054 | -0.014 | weak |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | -1d | 0.040 | -0.002 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where USD/THB sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2024 | 32.3300 | 7.89% | 5.47% | 0.53% |
| Feb 18, 2022 | 32.1700 | 3.98% | 9.39% | 7.99% |
| Jul 2, 2021 | 32.1000 | 4.02% | 2.06% | 12.37% |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 31.6400 | -4.52% | -5.37% | 6.89% |
| May 29, 2020 | 31.8200 | -1.45% | -1.98% | -2.04% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Feb 29, 20084.57%
- Oct 14, 20032.58%
- Dec 29, 20062.50%
- Jan 18, 20082.33%
- Jul 26, 20022.12%
- Feb 26, 2008-3.46%
- Jan 25, 2007-3.18%
- Dec 14, 2023-2.66%
- Mar 21, 2007-2.60%
- Jul 11, 2007-2.37%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.04% | 41.4% | 505 |
| February | 0.01% | 45.0% | 478 |
| March | 0.00% | 48.9% | 552 |
| April | 0.01% | 51.2% | 537 |
| May | 0.02% | 46.4% | 522 |
| June | 0.01% | 50.2% | 530 |
| July | -0.01% | 47.0% | 530 |
| August | -0.00% | 46.2% | 554 |
| September | 0.01% | 48.2% | 510 |
| October | -0.01% | 45.4% | 531 |
| November | -0.03% | 40.3% | 486 |
| December | -0.03% | 40.2% | 523 |
N = 6,259 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-18 13:00Z
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Macro regime
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
Historical Volatility
Moderate
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push USD/THB higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift USD/THB depend on the current macro regime. Emerging markets amplify every dollar and rate cycle. Central banks in Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey have typically led the Fed by months, cutting or hiking before the U.S. does. FX volatility vs the dollar is the dominant driver of EM equity and debt returns, so tracking local rates, inflation, and currency together is essential for separating idiosyncratic stress from generic dollar strength. Convex tracks these drivers live across the EM FX category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push USD/THB lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive USD/THB higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see USD/THB heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for USD/THB?▾
Historical ranges for USD/THB vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the USD/THB chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the USD/THB forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for USD/THB and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.