Based on current macro regime conditions and trade-weighted dollar (broad)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 119.13 by 2026-12-31 ( +0.9% from 118.04 today). The 68% confidence range is 113.95 to 124.3; the wider 95% range is 108.99 to 129.27. Methodology below the headline.
Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 5,102 observations of Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/03]
Δ = divergence from +0.7% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 251 | -3.85% | 4.37% | -0.88 | 50.8% | -3.84% |
| 3Y | 751 | -0.22% | 4.82% | -0.05 | 50.7% | -0.66% |
| 5Y | 1,251 | 1.28% | 5.12% | 0.25 | 49.9% | 6.54% |
| 10Y | 2,496 | 0.62% | 5.03% | 0.12 | 48.3% | 6.39% |
| All | 5,102 | 0.75% | 5.43% | 0.14 | 49.3% | 16.39% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 1,739 | 0.28% | 0.84% | 1.50% | 2.00% | 60.8% |
| Normal (15-25) | 2,444 | 0.18% | 0.62% | 2.19% | 1.60% | 66.7% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 696 | -0.50% | -0.91% | -0.42% | -1.28% | 36.5% |
| Extreme (>40) | 178 | 0.19% | -2.07% | -7.27% | -8.11% | 4.5% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 777 | -0.14% | -0.46% | -1.34% | -1.70% | 39.3% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 1,874 | -0.01% | 0.07% | -0.11% | -0.23% | 48.7% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 2,408 | 0.31% | 0.90% | 2.95% | 2.30% | 70.4% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 913 | 0.36% | 0.85% | 2.50% | 3.42% | 66.1% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 1,356 | 0.12% | 0.49% | 1.08% | 1.54% | 63.6% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 549 | -0.06% | -0.30% | -0.43% | -0.43% | 48.5% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad); negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | -0.443 | -0.443 | coincident |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | 0.287 | 0.287 | coincident |
| VIX | Volatility leader | 0d | 0.212 | 0.212 | coincident |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | -7d | 0.113 | 0.060 | weak |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | -2d | 0.079 | 0.050 | weak |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | +49d | -0.050 | -0.033 | weak |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | -19d | -0.032 | -0.023 | weak |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | +59d | -0.031 | -0.013 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2022 | 114.5527 | 1.08% | 5.32% | 4.69% |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 114.1484 | 1.16% | 1.59% | 7.79% |
| Aug 12, 2021 | 113.2691 | 0.43% | 2.19% | 7.43% |
| May 5, 2021 | 112.1514 | 0.38% | 0.79% | 6.87% |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 112.7469 | 0.20% | -1.58% | 2.01% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Sep 22, 20111.91%
- Mar 12, 20201.89%
- Oct 22, 20081.80%
- Jun 20, 20131.78%
- Dec 15, 20161.78%
- Mar 19, 2009-2.53%
- Oct 29, 2008-2.27%
- Mar 17, 2016-2.07%
- Nov 24, 2008-2.05%
- Mar 26, 2020-1.89%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.00% | 50.8% | 423 |
| February | 0.01% | 49.7% | 398 |
| March | -0.01% | 48.7% | 458 |
| April | -0.03% | 45.3% | 450 |
| May | 0.02% | 49.9% | 433 |
| June | -0.00% | 48.3% | 424 |
| July | -0.02% | 45.1% | 426 |
| August | 0.03% | 54.0% | 443 |
| September | 0.02% | 48.7% | 411 |
| October | 0.02% | 50.4% | 425 |
| November | 0.02% | 53.4% | 393 |
| December | -0.01% | 48.0% | 417 |
N = 5,102 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-18 05:00Z
Forecast Approach
scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. The projection above is the sample-weighted central estimate across current macro regime anchors; the scenario list below adds qualitative context.
Consensus source: Forward rates
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Rate differentials
- •Trade balances
- •Capital flows
- •Risk appetite
- •Central bank policy
Historical Volatility
Moderate: 10-15% annual range for DXY
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
How Trade-Weighted Dollar Forecasts Have Held Up Historically
Trade-weighted dollar forecasts have consistently missed the realized peak in dollar bull cycles. The 2014-2015 dollar bull (+25% trade-weighted), the 2022 surge (DXY to 114, the highest since 2002), and the 2024-2026 oscillation have all been dominated by rate-differential and policy-divergence dynamics that point forecasts couldn't predict.
Regime-conditional models on the trade-weighted dollar achieve approximately 65% directional accuracy. The cleanest single signal is the US-versus-rest-of-world rate differential at the front end (2Y differentials versus G10).
Regime Sensitivity for DTWEXBGS
The trade-weighted dollar has clean regime sensitivity. Hawkish Fed regimes (when Fed is leading the global cycle) anchor the dollar higher; dovish Fed regimes (Fed cutting ahead of others) anchor it lower. Risk-off regimes typically support the dollar through safe-haven demand; risk-on regimes pressure it.
The April 2026 setup has the Fed at 3.50-3.75% versus ECB at 2.0%, BoE at 3.25%, BoJ at 0.5%. The 150bp Fed-ECB differential supports the dollar at the margin; the BoJ normalization narrative could pressure dollar-yen and via JPY weight in the trade-weighted index. The regime conditional reads as range-bound with the bull case requiring Fed-pause-while-others-cut and the bear case requiring Fed-cuts-faster-than-others.
What Drives DTWEXBGS Forecast Errors
Three structural issues drive trade-weighted dollar forecast errors. First, the index weighting includes EUR (~58%), CNY (~15%), JPY (~6%), GBP (~5%), CAD/MXN (~13%) plus others. Each currency pair has its own driver mix; the aggregate moves with whichever pair has the dominant variance in any window.
Second, dedollarization-narrative pricing is regime-dependent. From 2014-2022 the dollar appreciated despite reserve-share decline because rate differentials dominated. From 2024-2026 dedollarization is gaining attention but hasn't translated into sustained DXY decline.
Third, central bank intervention regimes (Japanese MOF interventions in 2022 and 2024, PBoC fixings) produce step-changes in specific pairs that the regime classifier doesn't capture.
How to Use This Forecast in Practice
For the trade-weighted dollar, watch the Fed-ECB rate differential as the cleanest single rate signal, the China current-account dynamics (PBoC fixing pressure), and Japanese intervention thresholds. When all three point in the same direction, the dollar's path is high-conviction.
The cleanest cross-check is the dollar-gold relationship. When gold rises while the dollar holds (the 2024-2026 pattern), the structural-debasement narrative dominates and traditional rate-differential models under-state the dollar's downside. The 68% band on the trade-weighted dollar should be treated as moderately tight in normal regimes and 25%+ wider during policy-divergence shifts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) depend on the current macro regime. The dollar is the single largest macro variable for cross-asset returns. A rising dollar tightens global financial conditions, pressures emerging-market funding, and compresses commodity prices denominated in USD. Real effective exchange rates strip out inflation differentials, revealing whether a currency is genuinely appreciating or just keeping pace with domestic price levels. Convex tracks these drivers live across the FX & Dollar category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)?▾
Historical ranges for Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.