How often is the EAFE Developed (EFA) forecast updated?

This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.

Is this forecast actionable for trading?

Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.

Last updated October 20, 2026

Model-Based Forecast

EAFE Developed (EFA) Forecast 2026

Q: What is the historical range for EAFE Developed (EFA)?

Historical ranges for EAFE Developed (EFA) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the EAFE Developed (EFA) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.

Scenario-weighted forecast combining current macro regime, active scenarios, and historical patterns.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·Verified Oct 20, 2026

Current EAFE Developed (EFA)

$102.87

as of October 20, 2026

Forecast Approach

scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. This produces a distribution of possible values rather than a point forecast.

Consensus source: Sell-side price targets

Key Drivers & Risks

•Earnings growth
•Valuations
•Monetary policy
•Risk appetite
•Economic growth

Historical Volatility

Moderate-high: 15-25% annual range typical

Scenarios That Affect This Forecast

What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?

International equities get a double boost: local equity gains plus currency appreciation against the...

EAFE Developed (EFA)Chart →Historical Data →Current Regime →Market Outlook →All Forecasts →Methodology →

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could push EAFE Developed (EFA) higher?▾

The primary drivers that tend to lift EAFE Developed (EFA) depend on the current macro regime. iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, developed markets excluding US and Canada. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Equity Index category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.

What factors could push EAFE Developed (EFA) lower?▾

The same transmission channels that drive EAFE Developed (EFA) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.

Where does consensus see EAFE Developed (EFA) heading?▾

Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.

What is the historical range for EAFE Developed (EFA)?▾

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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.