Based on current macro regime conditions and germany / dax (ewg)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects $42.98 by 2026-12-31 ( +1.8% from $42.2 today). The 68% confidence range is $36.18 to $49.78; the wider 95% range is $29.65 to $56.31. Methodology below the headline.
Germany / DAX (EWG) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 1,298 observations of Germany / DAX (EWG) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from +3.5% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 262 | -0.46% | 16.74% | -0.03 | 49.8% | -0.46% |
| 3Y | 763 | 12.48% | 17.61% | 0.71 | 52.9% | 42.26% |
| 5Y | 1,268 | 3.15% | 20.56% | 0.15 | 51.8% | 16.80% |
| 10Y | 1,298 | 3.50% | 20.48% | 0.17 | 51.8% | 19.26% |
| All | 1,298 | 3.50% | 20.48% | 0.17 | 51.8% | 19.26% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How Germany / DAX (EWG) has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 261 | 0.61% | 4.11% | 20.40% | 19.56% | 100.0% |
| Normal (15-25) | 842 | 0.22% | 1.28% | 2.51% | 7.47% | 66.1% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 176 | 2.48% | 2.83% | 12.56% | 14.38% | 80.0% |
| Extreme (>40) | 4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 540 | 2.14% | 7.11% | 19.00% | 17.81% | 99.8% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 573 | -0.21% | -0.48% | 9.91% | 11.63% | 74.7% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 163 | -1.18% | -6.42% | -31.44% | -32.46% | 0.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 762 | 0.28% | 1.08% | 3.00% | 15.25% | 59.4% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 469 | 0.54% | 2.18% | 12.01% | 12.08% | 91.9% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 53 | 7.70% | 16.27% | 24.74% | 24.97% | 100.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 115 | -2.93% | -4.01% | -28.23% | -26.89% | 0.0% |
| Neutral (middle) | 336 | -1.04% | -5.32% | -23.93% | -30.81% | 9.9% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 818 | 1.81% | 5.49% | 17.34% | 17.81% | 95.1% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads Germany / DAX (EWG); negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | Volatility leader | 0d | -0.550 | -0.550 | coincident |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | 0d | -0.530 | -0.530 | coincident |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | -0.464 | -0.464 | coincident |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | 0.334 | 0.334 | coincident |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | -5d | -0.159 | -0.150 | lags target by 5d |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | -20d | 0.147 | -0.048 | weak |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | -2d | -0.105 | -0.098 | weak |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | +32d | -0.097 | -0.049 | weak |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | -10d | 0.072 | -0.011 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where Germany / DAX (EWG) sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 34.3200 | 21.10% | 23.83% | 16.26% |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 33.1800 | 4.16% | 17.63% | 26.88% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Apr 9, 20259.03%
- Mar 9, 20227.87%
- Nov 10, 20226.87%
- Nov 4, 20225.48%
- Oct 4, 20225.24%
- Apr 4, 2025-6.56%
- Jun 9, 2022-5.74%
- Mar 4, 2022-5.37%
- Sep 13, 2022-4.16%
- Jul 5, 2022-4.04%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.18% | 58.4% | 101 |
| February | 0.01% | 59.4% | 96 |
| March | -0.01% | 48.6% | 109 |
| April | 0.03% | 47.7% | 128 |
| May | 0.11% | 47.2% | 123 |
| June | -0.21% | 45.6% | 103 |
| July | 0.04% | 54.3% | 105 |
| August | -0.04% | 53.2% | 111 |
| September | -0.18% | 41.7% | 103 |
| October | 0.02% | 48.2% | 110 |
| November | 0.22% | 62.7% | 102 |
| December | 0.07% | 57.5% | 106 |
N = 1,298 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-17 17:00Z
Forecast Approach
scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. The projection above is the sample-weighted central estimate across current macro regime anchors; the scenario list below adds qualitative context.
Consensus source: Sell-side price targets
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Earnings growth
- •Valuations
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
- •Economic growth
Historical Volatility
Moderate-high: 15-25% annual range typical
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
How EWG Forecasts Have Held Up Historically
Germany / DAX ETF forecasts have a moderate track record. EWG tracks the DAX in dollar terms with FX translation; the 2022 Russia-Ukraine drawdown (-26%) was the largest miss as the energy-shock specifically hit Germany's industrial complex; the 2024-2026 recovery has been driven by ECB easing and energy price normalization.
Regime-conditional models on EWG achieve approximately 60% directional accuracy. The dominant variables are EUR/USD direction, ECB policy, German industrial PMI, and broader European growth.
Regime Sensitivity for EWG
EWG has triple regime sensitivity: to EUR/USD (FX-leg), to ECB policy (rate-leg), and to German industrial earnings (domestic-leg). Goldilocks regimes with stable EUR map to forward 252-day EWG returns averaging +10%; stagflation regimes with EUR weakness map to -8%; reflation near +6%; deflation near -5%.
The April 2026 setup has the ECB at 2.0% (well below the Fed's 3.50-3.75%), German manufacturing PMI in mid-40s (contractionary), and energy prices normalized but still above pre-Ukraine levels. The regime conditional reads as cautiously constructive: ECB easing supports the multiple but German industrial weakness limits earnings upside.
What Drives EWG Forecast Errors
Three structural issues drive EWG forecast errors. First, German industrial dependence on exports (especially auto sector) makes EWG sensitive to global growth and Chinese demand in ways the EU-only macro classifier under-states. The 2023-2024 China weakness specifically hit BMW, Mercedes, and VW.
Second, energy prices are a structural input cost for German industry; the 2022 Russian-gas-cutoff produced first-order earnings hits that have persisted as Germany has had to import LNG at higher prices.
Third, French-German political coordination dynamics (EU-fiscal coordination, defense spending, ECB voting) move EWG sentiment without changing the underlying earnings outlook.
How to Use This Forecast in Practice
For EWG, watch the EUR/USD direction (the dominant leg), German manufacturing PMI (the domestic earnings indicator), and Chinese demand signals (the export-leg cross-check). When all three align with the regime read, conviction is high.
The cleanest cross-check is the EWG-EZU spread (EZU is broader Eurozone). EWG leading EZU signals German-industrial-cycle dominance; EZU leading flags broader European participation. The 68% band on EWG should be treated as roughly 110% of SPY's because of the FX-and-export tail risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Germany / DAX (EWG) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Germany / DAX (EWG) depend on the current macro regime. iShares MSCI Germany ETF, proxy for the DAX and German equity market. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Equity Index category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Germany / DAX (EWG) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Germany / DAX (EWG) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Germany / DAX (EWG) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Germany / DAX (EWG)?▾
Historical ranges for Germany / DAX (EWG) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the Germany / DAX (EWG) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the Germany / DAX (EWG) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for Germany / DAX (EWG) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.