Based on current macro regime conditions and m1 velocity's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 1.54 by 2026-12-31 ( -6.8% from 1.65 today). The 68% confidence range is 1.29 to 1.79; the wider 95% range is 1.05 to 2.03. Methodology below the headline.
M1 Velocity Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 98 observations of M1 Velocity history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 5 | 1.54% | 1.14% | 1.36 | 75.0% | 1.54% |
| 3Y | 12 | 3.90% | 2.49% | 1.57 | 72.7% | 11.13% |
| 5Y | 21 | 5.96% | 3.80% | 1.57 | 70.0% | 33.55% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Macro regime
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
Historical Volatility
Moderate
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push M1 Velocity higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift M1 Velocity depend on the current macro regime. Ratio of nominal GDP to M1; falling velocity signals hoarded liquidity, rising velocity signals accelerating spending. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Money Supply category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push M1 Velocity lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive M1 Velocity higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see M1 Velocity heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for M1 Velocity?▾
Get forecast updates for M1 Velocity and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.