Based on current macro regime conditions and nvidia (nvda)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects $290 by 2026-12-31 ( +28.8% from $225 today). The 68% confidence range is $199 to $381; the wider 95% range is $112 to $468. Methodology below the headline.
Nvidia (NVDA) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 1,298 observations of Nvidia (NVDA) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from +72.2% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 262 | 66.73% | 33.28% | 2.00 | 52.9% | 66.20% |
| 3Y | 763 | 92.40% | 48.60% | 1.90 | 53.9% | 611.28% |
| 5Y | 1,268 | 73.92% | 51.45% | 1.44 | 53.6% | 1490.63% |
| 10Y | 1,298 | 72.19% | 51.22% | 1.41 | 53.5% | 1510.87% |
| All | 1,298 | 72.19% | 51.22% | 1.41 | 53.5% | 1510.87% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How Nvidia (NVDA) has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 261 | 9.74% | 31.56% | 102.34% | 90.32% | 100.0% |
| Normal (15-25) | 842 | 7.49% | 25.85% | 80.78% | 48.18% | 74.6% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 176 | 7.67% | 14.67% | 122.39% | 112.99% | 83.8% |
| Extreme (>40) | 4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 540 | 13.08% | 48.21% | 156.73% | 183.95% | 99.8% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 573 | 1.29% | 0.41% | 38.56% | 39.40% | 78.6% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 163 | 14.49% | 28.97% | -12.33% | -15.81% | 29.4% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 762 | 6.64% | 16.26% | 20.80% | 29.40% | 69.7% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 469 | 9.68% | 38.50% | 157.08% | 184.27% | 93.4% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 53 | 13.99% | 36.29% | 220.39% | 234.86% | 100.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 115 | 10.18% | 38.69% | 7.03% | 9.19% | 63.5% |
| Neutral (middle) | 336 | 7.68% | 9.07% | -4.44% | -21.76% | 18.6% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 818 | 8.02% | 31.19% | 117.71% | 93.62% | 95.9% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads Nvidia (NVDA); negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | Volatility leader | 0d | -0.514 | -0.514 | coincident |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | -0.393 | -0.393 | coincident |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | 0d | -0.184 | -0.184 | coincident |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | 0.170 | 0.170 | coincident |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | 0d | -0.146 | -0.146 | weak |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | -3d | -0.095 | -0.037 | weak |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | +4d | -0.091 | -0.071 | weak |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | -27d | -0.076 | 0.024 | weak |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | -57d | 0.073 | -0.005 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where Nvidia (NVDA) sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2025 | 140.1100 | -27.34% | 9.41% | 36.71% |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 141.9500 | -1.30% | -31.22% | 26.99% |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 129.3700 | -1.28% | 6.91% | 40.37% |
| May 24, 2024 | 106.4690 | 26.71% | 15.39% | 30.73% |
| Feb 23, 2024 | 78.8170 | 10.55% | 62.76% | 66.56% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- May 25, 202324.37%
- Apr 9, 202518.72%
- Feb 22, 202416.40%
- Nov 10, 202214.33%
- Feb 23, 202314.02%
- Jan 27, 2025-16.97%
- Apr 19, 2024-10.00%
- Sep 3, 2024-9.53%
- Sep 13, 2022-9.47%
- May 9, 2022-9.24%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.30% | 59.4% | 101 |
| February | 0.48% | 55.2% | 96 |
| March | 0.30% | 53.2% | 109 |
| April | -0.11% | 50.0% | 128 |
| May | 0.86% | 55.3% | 123 |
| June | 0.42% | 56.3% | 103 |
| July | 0.35% | 54.3% | 105 |
| August | 0.05% | 51.4% | 111 |
| September | -0.29% | 48.5% | 103 |
| October | 0.42% | 60.0% | 110 |
| November | 0.56% | 53.9% | 102 |
| December | -0.12% | 45.3% | 106 |
N = 1,298 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-17 18:00Z
Forecast Approach
scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. The projection above is the sample-weighted central estimate across current macro regime anchors; the scenario list below adds qualitative context.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Company earnings
- •Sector dynamics
- •Macro environment
- •Valuation
Historical Volatility
High: individual stock vol exceeds index vol
How NVDA Forecasts Have Held Up Historically
NVIDIA forecasts have the most volatile track record of any major stock. The 2023-2025 datacenter revenue explosion (from $4B/Q to $35B/Q) was missed by every major bank's January 2023 forecast; consensus EPS estimates have been raised 200%+ cumulatively over that period without the price catching down to the prior multiples.
Regime-conditional models on NVDA achieve only 55% directional accuracy on monthly windows, the lowest of any major name, because NVDA's price is dominated by the AI capex cycle which has no historical analogue in the regime classifier. The 2022 drawdown (-66% peak to trough) and the 2025 air pockets (multiple 15%+ drawdowns within an uptrend) were all missed by the regime model on magnitude despite often getting direction correct.
Regime Sensitivity for NVDA
NVDA is the highest-beta major stock to the AI capex regime, with realized vol roughly 1.5-2x SPY's. Hyperscaler capex (the four-customer concentration of MSFT + GOOG + META + AMZN representing 50%+ of NVDA datacenter revenue) is the single most-important regime variable.
The April 2026 setup has NVDA in a $130-$160 range with quarterly datacenter revenue exceeding $35B. Goldilocks regimes map to forward 252-day NVDA returns averaging +35%; stagflation near -15%; reflation near +20%; deflation near -25%. The amplification factor versus the regime model's central tendency is the largest of any major name.
What Drives NVDA Forecast Errors
Three structural issues drive NVDA forecast errors. First, the AI capex cycle has no historical regime template. From November 2022 (ChatGPT launch) to 2025, hyperscaler capex grew from roughly $150B to $300B+ annually with no precedent for the speed of the spend. The regime model has no comparable cycle in 25 years of data.
Second, customer concentration is extreme. The top four customers represent 50%+ of datacenter revenue; any single customer's capex revision can move NVDA 5-8% in a session. The regime model treats these as independent customers but they are highly correlated through the common AI-capex narrative.
Third, the China export-control regime is binary and unpredictable. Each escalation or de-escalation produces 5-10% NVDA moves that no macro classifier captures ex-ante.
How to Use This Forecast in Practice
For NVDA, the regime conditional is best treated as a direction-only signal, not a magnitude signal. The 68% band should be treated as 50%+ wider than the historical bootstrap implies because of the AI-capex regime change.
The cleanest single cross-check is the four hyperscalers' combined capex guidance per Q. When all four guide capex flat or up, NVDA's datacenter revenue trajectory is supported and the regime conditional is high-conviction constructive. When any single hyperscaler guides capex down materially, scale position size down regardless of what the macro classifier says. The NVDA-SMH spread is a useful tactical signal: NVDA leading SMH flags continued single-name dominance, SMH leading flags broader semi-cycle participation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Nvidia (NVDA) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Nvidia (NVDA) depend on the current macro regime. Nvidia Corp., the AI/GPU chip leader driving the AI capex cycle. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Equity Stock category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Nvidia (NVDA) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Nvidia (NVDA) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Nvidia (NVDA) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Nvidia (NVDA)?▾
Historical ranges for Nvidia (NVDA) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the Nvidia (NVDA) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the Nvidia (NVDA) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for Nvidia (NVDA) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.