Based on current macro regime conditions and equity put/call ratio's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 0.36 by 2026-12-31 ( -61.5% from 0.94 today). The 68% confidence range is -2.03 to 2.76; the wider 95% range is -4.33 to 5.06. Methodology below the headline.
Equity Put/Call Ratio Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 45 observations of Equity Put/Call Ratio history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 45 | -98.71% | 321.61% | -0.31 | 36.4% | -41.50% |
| 3Y | 45 | -98.71% | 321.61% | -0.31 | 36.4% | -41.50% |
| 5Y | 45 | -98.71% | 321.61% | -0.31 | 36.4% | -41.50% |
| 10Y | 45 | -98.71% | 321.61% | -0.31 | 36.4% | -41.50% |
| All | 45 | -98.71% | 321.61% | -0.31 | 36.4% | -41.50% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Apr 8, 202668.29%
- May 2, 202635.26%
- Apr 21, 202633.81%
- Apr 24, 202633.61%
- Apr 15, 202631.33%
- Apr 9, 2026-36.36%
- Apr 25, 2026-33.08%
- May 14, 2026-32.62%
- Apr 7, 2026-26.91%
- May 7, 2026-23.97%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.42% | 42.9% | 28 |
| May | -2.29% | 25.0% | 16 |
N = 45 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-17 18:30Z
Forecast Approach
trend extrapolation: Near-term trajectory extrapolation adjusted for mean-reversion tendencies and overhead resistance levels from technical analysis.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Price momentum
- •Institutional flows
- •Retail sentiment
- •Contrarian signals
Historical Volatility
Moderate: sentiment oscillates around extremes
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Equity Put/Call Ratio higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Equity Put/Call Ratio depend on the current macro regime. Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Sentiment & Positioning category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Equity Put/Call Ratio lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Equity Put/Call Ratio higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Equity Put/Call Ratio heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Equity Put/Call Ratio?▾
Historical ranges for Equity Put/Call Ratio vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the Equity Put/Call Ratio chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the Equity Put/Call Ratio forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.