Based on current macro regime conditions and retail sales (ex food svc)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 675,707.8 by 2026-12-31 ( +3.0% from 656,115 today). The 68% confidence range is 639,144.67 to 712,270.94; the wider 95% range is 604,044.05 to 747,371.56. Methodology below the headline.
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 299 observations of Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | 5.23% | 2.41% | 2.17 | 83.3% | 5.23% |
| 3Y | 36 | 3.93% | 2.26% | 1.74 | 71.4% | 11.91% |
| 5Y | 61 | 3.89% | 3.52% | 1.11 | 66.7% | 21.01% |
| 10Y | 121 | 5.31% | 8.75% | 0.61 | 65.0% | 67.76% |
| All | 299 | 3.98% | 6.43% | 0.62 | 66.8% | 163.67% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 65 | 0.22% | 1.05% | 3.33% | 3.88% | 95.4% |
| Normal (15-25) | 91 | 0.27% | 1.13% | 3.46% | 3.91% | 90.5% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 32 | 0.60% | 1.81% | 5.93% | 4.59% | 93.8% |
| Extreme (>40) | 3 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 27 | 0.26% | 1.02% | 3.04% | 2.94% | 100.0% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 63 | 0.87% | 2.13% | 4.78% | 3.82% | 89.5% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 100 | 0.18% | 1.02% | 4.03% | 4.61% | 93.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 25 | 0.14% | 1.37% | 4.52% | 3.82% | 100.0% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 45 | 0.61% | 1.42% | 3.48% | 3.84% | 93.2% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 18 | 1.63% | 3.33% | 8.90% | 4.65% | 100.0% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 34 | 0.37% | 0.63% | 1.32% | 3.59% | 70.6% |
| Neutral (middle) | 39 | 0.32% | 1.51% | 4.61% | 4.44% | 97.1% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 77 | 0.60% | 1.48% | 4.51% | 3.82% | 96.1% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads Retail Sales (ex Food Svc); negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | +1d | 0.645 | -0.468 | coincident |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | -0.457 | -0.457 | coincident |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | 0d | -0.368 | -0.368 | coincident |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | 0d | -0.284 | -0.284 | coincident |
| VIX | Volatility leader | 0d | -0.258 | -0.258 | coincident |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | 0d | 0.254 | 0.254 | coincident |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | -27d | -0.245 | -0.014 | lags target by 27d |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | 0.215 | 0.215 | coincident |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.185 | 0.185 | coincident |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | +11d | -0.154 | -0.061 | leads target by 11d |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 625121.0000 | -0.26% | 0.58% | 4.47% |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 621713.0000 | -1.06% | 0.29% | 2.11% |
| Sep 1, 2024 | 608774.0000 | 0.66% | 1.05% | 3.88% |
| Jun 1, 2024 | 599979.0000 | 0.97% | 2.13% | 4.03% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 595969.0000 | -0.05% | 1.65% | 4.89% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- May 1, 202018.27%
- Mar 1, 202110.39%
- Oct 1, 20018.12%
- Jun 1, 20206.36%
- Jan 1, 20234.01%
- Apr 1, 2020-12.03%
- Mar 1, 2020-6.03%
- Nov 1, 2008-4.39%
- Oct 1, 2008-3.92%
- Nov 1, 2001-3.34%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.54% | 64.0% | 25 |
| February | 0.19% | 64.0% | 25 |
| March | 0.72% | 68.0% | 25 |
| April | -0.18% | 64.0% | 25 |
| May | 0.94% | 58.3% | 24 |
| June | 0.71% | 70.8% | 24 |
| July | 0.30% | 76.0% | 25 |
| August | 0.36% | 68.0% | 25 |
| September | 0.03% | 56.0% | 25 |
| October | 0.48% | 64.0% | 25 |
| November | 0.04% | 76.0% | 25 |
| December | 0.04% | 72.0% | 25 |
N = 299 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-18 10:00Z
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Consensus source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow and Blue Chip consensus
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Consumer spending
- •Business investment
- •Government spending
- •Net exports
- •Inventory cycles
Historical Volatility
Moderate: 2-4% GDP growth range typical
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) depend on the current macro regime. Economic activity indicators reveal whether the economy is expanding or contracting in real time. ISM PMI readings above 50 signal expansion, while GDP growth tells the definitive story each quarter. Leading indicators like the Conference Board LEI can flag downturns months in advance, giving traders a head start on positioning. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Economic Activity category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)?▾
Historical ranges for Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.