Based on current macro regime conditions and snb currency reserves (chf)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 862,145.51 by 2026-12-31 ( -1.8% from 877,670 today). The 68% confidence range is 805,471.59 to 918,819.43; the wider 95% range is 751,064.63 to 973,226.4. Methodology below the headline.
SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 34 observations of SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | 1.77% | 5.72% | 0.31 | 50.0% | 1.77% |
| 3Y | 34 | -2.11% | 7.06% | -0.30 | 51.5% | -5.70% |
| 5Y | 34 | -2.11% | 7.06% | -0.30 | 51.5% | -5.70% |
| 10Y | 34 | -2.11% | 7.06% | -0.30 | 51.5% | -5.70% |
| All | 34 | -2.11% | 7.06% | -0.30 | 51.5% | -5.70% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Sep 30, 20254.02%
- Sep 30, 20243.48%
- Mar 31, 20243.28%
- Feb 29, 20242.48%
- Jun 30, 20251.85%
- Jun 30, 2023-4.85%
- Jul 31, 2023-3.94%
- Apr 30, 2025-2.67%
- Jun 30, 2024-2.52%
- Nov 30, 2023-2.39%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.34% | 66.7% | 3 |
| February | 0.51% | 66.7% | 3 |
| March | 1.88% | 100.0% | 2 |
| April | -0.73% | 50.0% | 2 |
| May | -1.27% | 0.0% | 2 |
| June | -1.84% | 33.3% | 3 |
| July | -1.60% | 33.3% | 3 |
| August | -0.92% | 0.0% | 3 |
| September | 1.88% | 66.7% | 3 |
| October | -0.51% | 66.7% | 3 |
| November | -0.25% | 66.7% | 3 |
| December | 0.75% | 66.7% | 3 |
N = 34 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-17 17:00Z
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Fed balance sheet
- •Bank reserves
- •Treasury General Account
- •Reverse repo facility
Historical Volatility
Low: trends are persistent, reversals are policy-driven
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) depend on the current macro regime. Financial conditions indexes are the Fed's dashboard. The Chicago Fed's NFCI blends over 100 inputs spanning equity volatility, credit spreads, funding stress, and leverage. Real yields across the TIPS curve reveal the true cost of capital after inflation, while liquidity measures (reverse repo, TGA, reserves) show whether the system is flush or stressed. Together they form the transmission belt from policy rate to real economy. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Liquidity category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for SNB Currency Reserves (CHF)?▾
Historical ranges for SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the SNB Currency Reserves (CHF) forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.