Based on current macro regime conditions and vix's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 20.18 by 2026-12-31 ( +16.9% from 17.26 today). The 68% confidence range is 3.63 to 36.74; the wider 95% range is -12.26 to 52.63. Methodology below the headline.
VIX Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 6,315 observations of VIX history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/03]
Δ = divergence from -0.9% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 259 | -7.31% | 115.51% | -0.06 | 46.5% | -7.30% |
| 3Y | 775 | 0.27% | 128.89% | 0.00 | 45.0% | 0.82% |
| 5Y | 1,285 | -1.71% | 124.36% | -0.01 | 44.5% | -8.24% |
| 10Y | 2,543 | 1.63% | 136.01% | 0.01 | 45.0% | 17.57% |
| All | 6,315 | -0.87% | 120.74% | -0.01 | 45.5% | -19.61% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How VIX has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 780 | 0.97% | 2.00% | 22.23% | 9.90% | 57.1% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 2,124 | 7.84% | 13.97% | 20.40% | 1.31% | 50.7% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 3,335 | 2.28% | 3.73% | -0.12% | -6.38% | 42.6% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 939 | 12.25% | 20.97% | 30.05% | 26.81% | 78.6% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 1,389 | 4.08% | 10.70% | 20.69% | 3.83% | 52.1% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 558 | -3.83% | -13.41% | -30.04% | -31.76% | 9.5% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 992 | 10.88% | 27.33% | 37.65% | 29.21% | 70.4% |
| Neutral (middle) | 1,227 | 2.78% | 2.58% | 2.92% | -4.49% | 44.8% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 2,596 | 3.91% | 5.48% | 6.44% | -5.68% | 44.8% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads VIX; negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | 0.476 | 0.476 | coincident |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | 0d | -0.241 | -0.241 | coincident |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | 0d | -0.215 | -0.215 | coincident |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | 0d | 0.214 | 0.214 | coincident |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | 0d | 0.206 | 0.206 | coincident |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | +56d | 0.101 | -0.013 | weak |
| NFCI | Financial conditions | -1d | 0.043 | -0.001 | weak |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | -3d | 0.036 | 0.016 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where VIX sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 17.1500 | 37.32% | -9.74% | 30.44% |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 16.7800 | -6.02% | 46.60% | -1.67% |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 17.6100 | 9.82% | -14.71% | -14.59% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | 16.9400 | -22.61% | -4.66% | 121.72% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 16.8700 | -27.74% | -12.63% | 14.05% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Feb 5, 2018115.60%
- Dec 18, 202474.04%
- Aug 5, 202464.90%
- Feb 27, 200764.22%
- Jan 27, 202161.64%
- Apr 9, 2025-35.75%
- May 10, 2010-29.57%
- Aug 6, 2024-28.16%
- Aug 9, 2011-26.96%
- Jun 15, 2006-25.91%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.48% | 46.6% | 511 |
| February | 0.49% | 42.9% | 483 |
| March | 0.05% | 44.6% | 545 |
| April | 0.11% | 42.8% | 519 |
| May | 0.18% | 45.8% | 531 |
| June | 0.25% | 45.7% | 534 |
| July | 0.21% | 45.4% | 533 |
| August | 0.58% | 44.8% | 554 |
| September | 0.57% | 48.4% | 510 |
| October | 0.32% | 47.7% | 553 |
| November | -0.30% | 43.4% | 514 |
| December | 0.28% | 48.4% | 527 |
N = 6,315 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-18 05:00Z
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Market stress
- •Options positioning
- •Leverage
- •Event risk
- •Correlation
Historical Volatility
Mean-reverting but with explosive tail events
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
How VIX Forecasts Have Held Up Historically
VIX forecasts are notoriously unreliable as point predictions because the index is a function of equity option prices that themselves react to events. The 2020 spike (VIX to 82.69 March 16, 2020), 2018 February episode (VIX to 50 in a single day, the "volmageddon"), and August 5, 2024 yen-carry-unwind episode (VIX intraday 65, a 1-in-100-day event) were all missed.
Regime-conditional models on VIX achieve approximately 70% directional accuracy on the regime label (low-vol vs high-vol) but materially worse on the level. VIX is itself a regime variable, so the classifier reads back rather than predicts.
Regime Sensitivity for VIX
VIX is the equity-volatility regime variable. Sub-15 VIX anchors goldilocks regimes; 15-20 anchors normal regimes; 20-30 signals stress; above 30 signals crisis. The historical mean-reversion speed varies by regime: VIX above 30 typically reverts within 2-3 weeks; VIX below 12 can persist for months in extended low-vol regimes.
The April 2026 setup has VIX in the high-teens, materially below the 30 stress threshold. The regime conditional reads as constructive on direction (VIX mean-reverts lower from current levels) but with a wider-than-usual band because of geopolitical tail risks (Iran, China-Taiwan, election aftermath).
What Drives VIX Forecast Errors
Two structural issues drive VIX forecast errors. First, VIX is convex to actual realized vol. A 20% S&P drawdown takes VIX from 15 to 60+ but a 5% rally takes VIX from 20 to 16. The convexity isn't captured in linear regime models.
Second, the term structure of vol (VIX vs VIX9D, VIX vs VIX3M) provides regime information that the spot VIX doesn't. Sustained term-structure inversion (VIX9D above VIX3M) signals near-term stress is being priced in.
How to Use This Forecast in Practice
For VIX, the cleanest single signal is mean-reversion from extremes. VIX above 30 typically reverts within 2-3 weeks (the standard short-vol trade); VIX below 12 typically signals complacency that resolves with a vol spike. The regime conditional should be used to size positioning, not to predict the level.
The VIX-MOVE relationship (equity vs rate vol) is a useful cross-check. When MOVE leads VIX higher, rate volatility is the dominant driver; when VIX leads, equity-specific risk is dominant. The 68% band on VIX should be treated as asymmetric: tighter on the downside (VIX has a 12-15 floor in normal regimes) and wider on the upside (VIX can spike to 80+ in genuine crisis).
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push VIX higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift VIX depend on the current macro regime. Volatility is the market's price of uncertainty. The VIX measures 30-day implied equity volatility, the MOVE does the same for Treasuries, and SKEW captures demand for tail-risk protection. Persistent divergences between equity and bond vol often precede regime shifts, while spikes in both simultaneously signal broad deleveraging. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Volatility category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push VIX lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive VIX higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see VIX heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for VIX?▾
Historical ranges for VIX vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the VIX chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the VIX forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for VIX and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.