Bitcoin
Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer.
The Bitcoin is currently $77,251, last updated . Live BTC spot price from exchange feeds
Crypto is the highest-beta macro asset. Bitcoin correlates loosely with tech equities and inversely with real yields, while Ethereum trades more like a high-beta call on network adoption. ETF flows, stablecoin supply, and exchange balances reveal the positioning underneath the price.
Current Reading
Live BTC spot price from exchange feeds
AI Analysis
May 14, 2026THESIS HEALTH: INTACT. BTC at $79,351 (essentially unchanged from prior $79,373.6, -0.03%, STABLE). Range-bound behavior ($73K-$88K) has held. CHANGE: NEUTRAL/LOW → BEARISH/LOW. Trigger: HOT CPI print (pending event, score 7, MAJOR_SIGNAL) is a confirmed risk-off catalyst that the prior thesis identified as the key unwind trigger. The playbook explicitly states 'crypto sells on risk-off' for HOT_CPI events. KEY DATA: (1) CFTC BTC net spec at 1,441 (100th pctile, STABLE) — maximum crowding, no marginal buyer. This is the dominant bearish signal. (2) Net liquidity -$114bn 1M (CONTRACTING, STABLE direction) — mechanical headwind for risk assets. (3) Hot CPI confirmed 24h ago — risk-off catalyst is now active, not hypothetical. COUNTER-THESIS: BTC has shown resilience to macro headwinds in prior cycles; institutional adoption (ETF flows) may provide a structural bid that overwhelms spec positioning. DeFi TVL at $95.4bn (stable) suggests on-chain activity is not collapsing. The geopolitical de-escalation (Trump-Xi) is risk-on and could support BTC. PAYOFF ASYMMETRY: If right (unwind to $68-72K): -14% from current. If wrong (squeeze to $88-95K): +12-20%. R/R: 1.2:1 in favor of downside, but not compelling enough for high conviction. The squeeze risk from geopolitical de-escalation tempers conviction. INVALIDATION: BTC above $88,000 for 2 consecutive daily closes with CFTC net spec declining below 85th pctile (crowding unwinding into strength). BTC below $68,000 for 2 consecutive closes (unwind confirmed, would upgrade to BEARISH/MODERATE).
What BTC Tracks and Why It Matters
BTC is Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency, traded 24/7 on global exchanges and held in approximately $1.5 trillion of market cap as of early 2026. Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, with new issuance halving roughly every four years; the most recent halving (April 19, 2024) cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
Why it matters: BTC is the cleanest expression of the digital-scarcity narrative and is increasingly behaving like a macro asset rather than a pure tech-startup speculation. The January 2024 launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, others) brought $37 billion of inflows in the first year and pushed BTC into mainstream institutional portfolios. Post-ETF, the BTC-SPX rolling 50-day correlation has averaged approximately 0.5 (versus near 0 in 2022), indicating partial integration with traditional risk markets.
How to Read BTC Right Now
BTC traded $77,160.91 on the morning of April 29, 2026, off the all-time high of $126,198 set on October 6, 2025. Total spot Bitcoin ETF AUM reached approximately $102 billion through April 23, 2026, with IBIT alone at $63.1 billion and weekly inflows running $824 million in the week of April 20-24.
The drawdown from $126K to $77K (-39%) over six months is a substantial correction but well within historical Bitcoin cycle norms (prior cycles drew down 75-93% peak-to-trough). The bull case is that ETF flows are providing a structural bid that breaks the historical 4-year cycle and that BTC re-rates higher as a sovereign-debasement hedge. The bear case is that the post-halving cycle bottom has not yet arrived and that further drawdowns are typical of post-ATH bear markets in crypto.
Historical Range and Drivers
Modern BTC range: $1 in 2010-2011, $19,783 in December 2017 (cycle 1 ATH), $3,250 in December 2018 (-73% calendar 2018), $68,789 in November 2021 (cycle 2 ATH), $15,480 in November 2022 (FTX collapse), $126,198 in October 2025 (cycle 3 ATH), $77,160 April 2026. The four-year halving cycle has historically anchored major peaks 12-18 months post-halving and major troughs 18-24 months post-peak. The post-2024 ETF era is the test of whether this cycle persists.
What to Watch in BTC
First, weekly spot ETF net flows. Sustained positive flows above $500M/week support price; sustained outflows above $500M/week signal institutional rotation away.
Second, the BTC-SPX rolling correlation. Above 0.6 indicates BTC is trading as risk asset, below 0.2 signals decoupling and digital-gold thesis activation.
Third, on-chain metrics: realized cap, exchange balances, and long-term holder supply. Long-term holder net selling at scale historically marks cycle tops.
Recent Data
Download CSV| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | $77,251 | -0.25% |
| May 17, 2026 | $77,445.9 | -0.93% |
| May 16, 2026 | $78,173.4 | -1.18% |
| May 15, 2026 | $79,107 | -2.42% |
| May 14, 2026 | $81,066.9 | +2.20% |
| May 13, 2026 | $79,320.5 | -1.46% |
| May 12, 2026 | $80,492.1 | -1.53% |
| May 11, 2026 | $81,741.3 | -0.52% |
| May 10, 2026 | $82,171.4 | +1.85% |
| May 9, 2026 | $80,677.4 | +0.60% |
| May 8, 2026 | $80,196.4 | +0.21% |
| May 7, 2026 | $80,026.2 | -1.75% |
| May 6, 2026 | $81,450 | +0.65% |
| May 5, 2026 | $80,926.1 | +1.37% |
| May 4, 2026 | $79,833.5 | +1.62% |
| May 3, 2026 | $78,563.3 | -0.16% |
| May 2, 2026 | $78,692.9 | +0.60% |
| May 1, 2026 | $78,226.6 | +2.49% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $76,324.3 | +0.69% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $75,803.9 | -0.70% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $76,342.1 | -1.33% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | $77,371.3 | -1.61% |
| Apr 26, 2026 | $78,638.5 | +1.34% |
| Apr 25, 2026 | $77,595.9 | — |
Featured Scenario AnalysisHow Bitcoin responds to macro scenarios
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC ~$77,000 After a 14-Month Bear vs Gold
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?VIX 17.83, BTC $77,160
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC ~$77,000 After the October 2025 Peak
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?BTC ~$77,000, Memory of the 2022 Drawdown Is Fresh
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?DXY 98.92, BTC ~$77,000
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Gold $4,613, BTC $77,160, Ratio 16.3
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?Real Yield 1.93%, BTC ~$77,000
Where Do Things Stand in April 2026?SPY $711, BTC $77,160
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated real-time. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.