Treasury Bond Net Speculative Positioning in 2015
Treasury Bond Net Speculative Positioning opened 2015 at -35,365 and closed at -11, a +99.97% move for the year. The high of 29,010 was reached on March 17, and the low of -35,365 on January 6.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -35,365 | -10,105 | -5,432 | -35,365 | +71.43% |
| Feb | -15,337 | 8,695 | 8,695 | -18,626 | +156.69% |
| Mar | -1,659 | 17,242 | 29,010 | -1,659 | +1139.30% |
| Apr | 13,760 | 3,450 | 26,449 | 3,450 | -74.93% |
| May | 10,973 | 8,469 | 26,859 | 8,469 | -22.82% |
| Jun | 6,225 | -4,105 | 23,473 | -4,105 | -165.94% |
| Jul | 10,857 | 1,158 | 10,857 | -5,271 | -89.33% |
| Aug | 14,222 | -7,191 | 14,222 | -7,191 | -150.56% |
| Sep | -6,651 | -9,074 | 9,489 | -9,074 | -36.43% |
| Oct | -7,145 | -20,165 | 6,706 | -20,165 | -182.23% |
| Nov | -21,886 | -21,936 | -16,684 | -21,936 | -0.23% |
| Dec | -25,530 | -11 | -11 | -25,530 | +99.96% |
Events During 2015
The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed.
Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments.
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