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Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM)

Cleveland Fed nowcast of headline PCE inflation MoM change, the Fed's statutory target measure.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) is currently 4.58%, last updated .

4.58%
1W +7.89%1M +7.89%3M +7.89%
Updated 29d ago
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Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM), blended across current macro regimes.
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The Fed balance sheet and Treasury General Account together determine the volume of reserves circulating in the banking system. Nowcasts from Atlanta, New York, and Cleveland Fed staff provide real-time estimates of GDP and inflation, often weeks ahead of official releases. These operational metrics are what actually moves rates and reserves, as opposed to the policy statements that describe intent.

Updated 29d ago

AI Analysis

May 14, 2026

Cleveland PCE nowcast at 4.58%.

Recent Data

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DateValueChange
Apr 1, 20264.58%+7.89%
Jan 1, 20264.25%+62.28%
Oct 1, 20252.62%-5.21%
Jul 1, 20252.76%+55.33%
Apr 1, 20251.78%-44.52%
Jan 1, 20253.20%+37.73%
Oct 1, 20242.33%+66.34%
Jul 1, 20241.40%-42.13%
Apr 1, 20242.42%-24.12%
Jan 1, 20243.18%+75.59%
Oct 1, 20231.81%-39.52%
Jul 1, 20233.00%+8.75%
Apr 1, 20232.76%-29.89%
Jan 1, 20233.93%+24.73%
Oct 1, 20223.15%-25.84%
Jul 1, 20224.25%-40.30%
Apr 1, 20227.12%-2.77%
Jan 1, 20227.32%+13.30%
Oct 1, 20216.46%+20.02%
Jul 1, 20215.39%-20.48%
Apr 1, 20216.77%+89.57%
Jan 1, 20213.57%+171.83%
Oct 1, 20201.31%-68.96%
Jul 1, 20204.23%—

Related in Fed Nowcasts

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Atlanta Fed real-time nowcast of current-quarter real GDP growth, updated 6-7 times per quarter as new data releases arrive.
Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast (MoM)
Cleveland Fed nowcast of the current-month CPI MoM change, using a dynamic factor model updated daily as price data releases arrive.
Cleveland Fed Core CPI Nowcast (MoM)
Cleveland Fed nowcast of core CPI MoM change, the inflation signal excluding food and energy that the Fed watches most closely.
Cleveland Fed Core PCE Nowcast (MoM)
Cleveland Fed nowcast of core PCE MoM change, the single most important inflation reading for FOMC decisions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM)?
Cleveland Fed nowcast of headline PCE inflation MoM change, the Fed's statutory target measure.
▶How does Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) relate to fed nowcasts?
Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) is part of the Fed Nowcasts category. The Fed balance sheet and Treasury General Account together determine the volume of reserves circulating in the banking system. Nowcasts from Atlanta, New York, and Cleveland Fed staff provide real-time estimates of GDP and inflation, often weeks ahead of official releases. These operational metrics are what actually moves rates and reserves, as opposed to the policy statements that describe intent.
▶How often is Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) updated?
Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) data?
Convex sources Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) chart page?
The Cleveland Fed PCE Nowcast (MoM) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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