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Convex Narrative Velocity Index

Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The Convex Narrative Velocity Index is currently 87.54, last updated . Surging (87.54/100), extreme narrative acceleration, rare macro-event signal

87.54
1W +18.92%1M +2.47%3M +2.47%
Updated 8h ago
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Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for Convex Narrative Velocity Index, blended across current macro regimes.
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Download dataCSV (full history)·JSON (latest)·View on FRED ↗
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Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction.

Updated 8h ago

Current Reading

Surging (87.54/100), extreme narrative acceleration, rare macro-event signal

AI Analysis

May 14, 2026

The highest-conviction trade in this environment is LONG GOLD. Scenario-weighted expected value across 40% stagflation deepening (-8%), 25% soft landing (+12%), 20% hard landing (-20%), 15% inflation re-acceleration (-5%) = approximately -2.5% expected return on SPX over 4-8 weeks — not enough conviction to be outright short given the squeeze risk.

Recent Data

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DateValueChange
May 18, 202687.54+0.95%
May 17, 202686.72+0.12%
May 16, 202686.62+0.19%
May 15, 202686.46+17.11%
May 14, 202673.83+0.52%
May 13, 202673.45-0.15%
May 12, 202673.56-0.07%
May 11, 202673.61-17.03%
May 10, 202688.72+1.09%
May 9, 202687.76+0.49%
May 8, 202687.33-2.87%
May 7, 202689.91+20.56%
May 6, 202674.58+0.08%
May 5, 202674.52-17.82%
May 4, 202690.68+21.75%
May 3, 202674.48-14.01%
May 2, 202686.61+0.05%
May 1, 202686.57+23.06%
Apr 30, 202670.35-4.82%
Apr 29, 202673.91-0.99%
Apr 28, 202674.65-17.83%
Apr 27, 202690.85+21.64%
Apr 26, 202674.69-12.57%
Apr 25, 202685.43—

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Explore Further

Forecast 2026
Convex Narrative Velocity Index Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using trend extrapolation approach.
Category
All Positioning & Sentiment Data
AAII and NAAIM sentiment surveys, CFTC futures positioning, and FINRA margin debt. The behavior of the marginal trader....

Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Convex Narrative Velocity Index?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale.
▶How does Convex Narrative Velocity Index relate to sentiment & positioning?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index is part of the Sentiment & Positioning category. Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction.
▶How often is Convex Narrative Velocity Index updated?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Convex Narrative Velocity Index data?
Convex sources Convex Narrative Velocity Index data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Convex Narrative Velocity Index chart page?
The Convex Narrative Velocity Index page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.