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Fed Policy Expectationsdaily
FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps)
Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M1, in basis points.
Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps), blended across current macro regimes.
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Related in Fed Policy Expectations
FedWatch Next-Meeting Cut Probability
Market-implied probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, derived from CME Fed Funds futures.
FedWatch Next-Meeting Implied Rate
Market-implied effective fed funds rate priced for the next FOMC meeting, from CME Fed Funds futures.
FedWatch Implied Rate (M1)
Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the next FOMC meeting from CME Fed Funds futures.
FedWatch Cut Probability (M1)
Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M1 priced in CME Fed Funds futures.
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Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps)?
Implied change in the fed funds rate between current EFFR and meeting M1, in basis points.
▶How often is FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps) updated?
FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps) is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps) data?
Convex sources FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps) data from official government and market data providers. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps) chart page?
The FedWatch Implied Change (M1, bps) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.