Quick Answer
As of July 28, 2026, Natural Gas is $2.71. Source: Live market data via Convex.
Cite this: https://convextrade.com/metrics/natgas#answer · Data: CSV (stable URL)
Natural Gas
Henry Hub natural gas spot price, updated during NYMEX trading hours. Convex frames the live tape with storage context, term-structure signals, and seasonal demand patterns.
The Natural Gas is currently $2.71, last updated .
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Free macro alerts →Commodities sit at the intersection of monetary and physical reality. Oil and gas prices flow almost directly into headline CPI, while copper and iron ore track global industrial activity ahead of official releases. Tracking each complex alongside its supply signal (EIA inventories, rig counts, seaborne cargo flows) separates genuine demand moves from inventory-cycle noise.
AI Analysis
Jul 21, 2026The regime is STAGFLATION and DEEPENING: growth is decelerating on every rate-of-change measure that leads (GDPNow 1.3% from ~3%, semis and homebuilders rolling over, housing troughing, quit rate and real wages softening) while inflation is sticky-to-rising (PPI pipeline building, shelter/supercore firm, breakevens inverted). The bond market has this right — bear steepening with 10Y real yields at a +2.7σ extreme is a pure stagflation signal. What keeps it a slow burn rather than a crash is the plumbing: net liquidity is expanding (+$285bn 3M), the credit impulse is easing (+5.4%), and financial conditions are loose (NFCI -0.538).
What Natural Gas Tracks and Why It Matters
Natural gas is the Henry Hub Louisiana benchmark, traded on NYMEX in million-British-thermal-units (MMBtu). Unlike crude oil, natural gas is a regional market: US prices have decoupled from European TTF and Asian JKM benchmarks since the 2014 shale revolution and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. US natgas typically trades $2-$5 per MMBtu while European TTF can trade $20-$40+.
Why it matters: natural gas is the largest single fuel for US electricity generation (~40%) and a critical input for fertilizer, chemicals, and industrial heat. A sustained natgas spike above $5 raises industrial production costs across the manufacturing base and feeds into PPI. It is also the cleanest single read on weather extremes in the US Northeast, the largest consuming region. For 2026, natgas is structurally bullish because of LNG export expansion (Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3) and AI data center electricity demand growth.
How to Read Natural Gas Right Now
In April 2026 US natural gas trades in the $3.50-$4.50/MMBtu range, well above the 2024 lows near $1.50 but below the 2022 peak of $9. The structural drivers are LNG export capacity (US is now the world's largest LNG exporter with capacity adding through 2027), AI data center electricity demand (datacenter peak load is doubling every 18-24 months in some Midwest grids), and producer discipline after the 2024 capex retrenchment.
The risk is mild weather: a warm winter or cool summer could collapse demand and pressure prices back toward $2.50. The bull case is sustained LNG bid plus a single cold-weather event. Natgas has the highest realized volatility of any major commodity because its storage is physical and seasonal and arbitrage to Europe is capped by liquefaction capacity.
Historical Range and Drivers
Modern Henry Hub range: $2 in the 2015-2016 shale glut, $4-$6 in normal 2017-2021 conditions, $9 in August 2022 (Russia-driven LNG arbitrage), $1.50 in early 2024 (mild winter, oversupply), and $3.50-$4.50 in 2026. The three drivers are weather (heating-degree-days and cooling-degree-days), LNG export capacity utilization, and US storage levels (the EIA weekly storage report drives short-term moves of 5-10% routinely).
What to Watch in Natural Gas
First, EIA weekly storage report (Thursdays at 10:30am ET). Surprises versus consensus drive 3-5% same-day moves.
Second, LNG export terminal utilization. Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramps shift the demand curve permanently higher.
Third, 8-14 day weather forecasts. Most natgas trading is weather-driven on the margin; the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks frequently move the front-month contract.
Recent Data
Download CSV| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | $2.71 | -2.02% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | $2.77 | -2.64% |
| Jul 26, 2026 | $2.85 | -1.49% |
| Jul 25, 2026 | $2.89 | -0.69% |
| Jul 24, 2026 | $2.91 | -0.14% |
| Jul 23, 2026 | $2.91 | -0.99% |
| Jul 22, 2026 | $2.94 | +1.98% |
| Jul 21, 2026 | $2.88 | +1.55% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | $2.84 | -1.49% |
| Jul 19, 2026 | $2.88 | -0.96% |
| Jul 18, 2026 | $2.91 | -0.17% |
| Jul 17, 2026 | $2.92 | +0.80% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | $2.89 | -0.58% |
| Jul 15, 2026 | $2.91 | +0.03% |
| Jul 14, 2026 | $2.91 | +0.41% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | $2.9 | -0.82% |
| Jul 12, 2026 | $2.92 | -0.65% |
| Jul 11, 2026 | $2.94 | -0.27% |
| Jul 10, 2026 | $2.95 | -2.03% |
| Jul 9, 2026 | $3.01 | -7.87% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | $3.27 | +0.09% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | $3.26 | +0.37% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | $3.25 | +1.37% |
| Jul 5, 2026 | $3.21 | — |
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