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PCE Price Index

Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The PCE Price Index is currently 130.34, last updated .

130.34
1W +0.66%1M +0.66%3M +0.66%
Updated 4h ago
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Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for PCE Price Index, blended across current macro regimes.
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Download dataCSV (full history)·JSON (latest)·View on FRED ↗
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Inflation erodes purchasing power and forces central banks to tighten, squeezing equity multiples and increasing credit stress. Breakeven rates reveal what the bond market expects for future inflation, while CPI and PCE measure what consumers actually experience. Divergences between market expectations and realized prints create some of the highest-impact trading events of the year.

Updated 4h ago

AI Analysis

May 14, 2026

Cleveland PCE nowcast at 4.58%. KEY TENSION: ES CFTC shows specs are heavily short (98th pctile of net short positioning) while NAAIM is near zero — this creates a VIOLENT SQUEEZE RISK if any positive catalyst emerges (geopolitical de-escalation, soft PCE).

Recent Data

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DateValueChange
Mar 1, 2026130.34+0.66%
Feb 1, 2026129.48+0.38%
Jan 1, 2026129+0.33%
Dec 1, 2025128.58+0.33%
Nov 1, 2025128.15+0.22%
Oct 1, 2025127.87+0.19%
Sep 1, 2025127.63+0.26%
Aug 1, 2025127.29+0.26%
Jul 1, 2025126.96+0.17%
Jun 1, 2025126.74+0.29%
May 1, 2025126.38+0.18%
Apr 1, 2025126.15+0.17%
Mar 1, 2025125.94+0.02%
Feb 1, 2025125.92+0.40%
Jan 1, 2025125.42+0.35%
Dec 1, 2024124.98+0.27%
Nov 1, 2024124.64+0.11%
Oct 1, 2024124.49+0.27%
Sep 1, 2024124.16+0.22%
Aug 1, 2024123.89+0.12%
Jul 1, 2024123.74+0.16%
Jun 1, 2024123.54+0.15%
May 1, 2024123.35+0.01%
Apr 1, 2024123.34—

Related in Inflation

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Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge.
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US consumer price index, year-on-year change (OECD MEI). Feed stopped updating in April 2025; CPIAUCNS_YOY is the live replacement.
US CPI YoY
US headline CPI year-over-year, derived in-house from CPIAUCNS (NSA, BLS headline methodology). Replaced the stale OECD MEI CPALTT01USM659N feed.
Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)
CPI excluding food and energy, less volatile measure of underlying inflation.

Explore Further

Forecast 2026
PCE Price Index Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using regime implied approach.
Comparison
Core PCE vs Headline PCE
Headline PCE (PCEPI) includes food and energy; Core PCE (PCEPILFE) excludes them. The Fed targets 2% on Core PCE because...
Comparison
Headline CPI vs Headline PCE
Headline CPI (BLS, FRED series CPIAUCSL) and Headline PCE (BEA, FRED series PCEPI) diverge primarily because shelter car...
Category
All Inflation Data
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Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is PCE Price Index?
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
▶How does PCE Price Index relate to inflation?
PCE Price Index is part of the Inflation category. Inflation erodes purchasing power and forces central banks to tighten, squeezing equity multiples and increasing credit stress. Breakeven rates reveal what the bond market expects for future inflation, while CPI and PCE measure what consumers actually experience. Divergences between market expectations and realized prints create some of the highest-impact trading events of the year.
▶How often is PCE Price Index updated?
PCE Price Index is updated once per month when the releasing agency publishes new data. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source PCE Price Index data?
Convex sources PCE Price Index data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the PCE Price Index chart page?
The PCE Price Index page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated monthly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.