Historical Year Data · 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2026 at 0.18% and closed at 0.54%, a +200.00% move for the year. The high of 0.54% was reached on May 1, and the low of 0.16% on February 1.
Open
0.18%
2026-01
Close
0.54%
5 data points
High
0.54%
May 1
Low
0.16%
Feb 1
Full Year Change
+200.00%
2025 Change
-31.03%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.16% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.26% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | +0.00% |
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