Historical Year Data · 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2026 at 0.18% and closed at 0.62%, a +244.44% move for the year. The high of 0.62% was reached on August 1, and the low of 0.10% on April 1.
Open
0.18%
2026-01
Close
0.62%
8 data points
High
0.62%
Aug 1
Low
0.10%
Apr 1
Full Year Change
+244.44%
2025 Change
-31.03%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.24% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.62% | +0.00% |
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