Historical Year Data · 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2026 at 0.18% and closed at 0.76%, a +322.22% move for the year. The high of 0.76% was reached on July 1, and the low of 0.18% on January 1.
Open
0.18%
2026-01
Close
0.76%
7 data points
High
0.76%
Jul 1
Low
0.18%
Jan 1
Full Year Change
+322.22%
2025 Change
-31.03%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.56% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.76% | +0.00% |
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