10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds

Spread of 10-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; an alternative yield-curve recession gauge with longer record.

10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds is part of the Yield Curve & Rates category. Interest rates set the price of money and ripple through every asset class. An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s, making this the single most-watched corner of fixed income. Monitoring rate differentials, real yields, and forward expectations helps traders anticipate risk-on or risk-off regime shifts.

10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.

Convex sources 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.

The 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.