30Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.91 percent and the 10-year at 4.31 percent on April 24, 2026, putting the 30Y-10Y spread at 60 basis points. Through April 2026, the spread has held in a tight 57 to 62 basis point range.
Also known as: 30Y Treasury Yield (30Y yield, 30 year treasury, long bond) · 10Y Treasury Yield (10Y yield, 10 year treasury, TNX)
Why This Comparison Matters
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.91 percent and the 10-year at 4.31 percent on April 24, 2026, putting the 30Y-10Y spread at 60 basis points. Through April 2026, the spread has held in a tight 57 to 62 basis point range. The spread captures long-end term premium: compensation investors demand for holding 30-year duration over 10-year duration. Historically the spread averaged 75 to 100 basis points from 1990 to 2007, compressed to 30 to 60 basis points during the 2009 to 2021 QE era, and has stabilized in the 50 to 80 basis-point range post-2022 as fiscal pressures and Treasury issuance pushed term premium higher. The current spread sits near the post-2022 average and meaningfully above the QE-era lows.
The April 2026 Configuration
Three trading days in April 2026 illustrate the spread's stability: April 2 saw 10Y at 4.31 percent, 30Y at 4.88 percent (57 bp spread). April 17 saw 10Y at 4.26 percent, 30Y at 4.88 percent (62 bp spread). April 24 saw 10Y at 4.31 percent, 30Y at 4.91 percent (60 bp spread). The narrow range reflects the absence of major catalysts: no FOMC meeting, no Treasury refunding announcement, and stable fiscal projections.
The 60 basis-point spread is approximately 15 basis points above its November 2024 low of 45 bps and 20 basis points below its August 2025 peak of 80 bps. The 12-month average is approximately 65 basis points. The current level prices in moderate fiscal concerns, modest Fed easing expectations (two to three cuts in 2026 base case per Schwab outlook), and stable inflation expectations.
What the Spread Actually Measures
The 30Y-10Y spread isolates pure term premium at the long end. The 10Y yield contains a 10-year expected-policy-path component plus 10-year term premium. The 30Y yield contains a 30-year expected-policy-path component plus 30-year term premium. The spread equals the difference between 30Y term premium and 10Y term premium plus the difference between 30Y and 10Y expected-policy-path components.
In practice, expectations for Fed policy 10 to 30 years out are roughly equal (the Fed neutral rate is the dominant assumption beyond 10 years). So the spread approximates the marginal term premium added by extending duration from 10 years to 30 years. Higher 30Y-10Y spread indicates higher long-end term premium; lower spread indicates lower term premium. Currently the marginal long-end term premium is approximately 60 basis points.
Long-Run Term Premium History
The historical pattern reveals the regime shifts. From 1960 to 2007, the 10-year term premium itself averaged approximately 150 basis points. From 2009 to 2021, the 10-year term premium fluctuated between negative 100 and positive 50 basis points, a dramatic compression driven by Fed QE absorbing duration.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 10Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in 30Y Treasury Yield. Computed from 1,236 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield rises 0.25% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.58%. 124 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 48% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current 30Y-10Y Treasury spread?+
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 4.91 percent and the 10-year at 4.31 percent on April 24, 2026, putting the 30Y-10Y spread at 60 basis points. Through April 2026, the spread has held in a tight 57 to 62 basis point range. The spread captures long-end term premium: compensation investors demand for holding 30-year duration over 10-year duration. The current 60 basis-point level is approximately 15 basis points above the November 2024 low of 45 bps and 20 basis points below the August 2025 peak of 80 bps. The 12-month average is approximately 65 basis points.
What does the 30Y-10Y spread measure?+
The spread isolates pure long-end term premium. The 10Y yield contains a 10-year expected-policy-path component plus 10-year term premium; the 30Y yield contains a 30-year expected-policy-path component plus 30-year term premium. Since expectations for Fed policy 10 to 30 years out are roughly equal (the Fed neutral rate dominates beyond 10 years), the spread approximates the marginal term premium added by extending duration from 10 years to 30 years. Currently the marginal long-end term premium is approximately 60 basis points.
How has the spread changed historically?+
From 1990 to 2007, the spread averaged 75 to 100 basis points (peaking 200+ bps during 1992 and 2003 steepenings). From 2009 to 2021, the spread compressed to 30 to 60 basis points during QE programs as the Fed absorbed duration. Post-2022, the spread has stabilized in the 50 to 80 bps range as fiscal-driven supply pressures and Fed QT have rebuilt long-end term premium. The 10-year term premium itself averaged approximately 150 basis points from 1960 to 2007 and fluctuated between negative 100 and positive 50 basis points from 2009 to 2021 before normalizing.
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