10Y vs 5Y Treasury Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31 percent on April 24, 2026, and the 5-year at 3.94 percent on April 23, 2026, putting the 10Y-5Y spread at approximately 37 basis points. The spread captures the back of the belly: the segment between the rate-expectations-dominated belly (2Y to 5Y) and the term-premium-dominated long end (10Y onwards).
Also known as: 10Y Treasury Yield (10Y yield, 10 year treasury, TNX) · 5Y Treasury Yield (5Y yield, 5 year treasury)
Why This Comparison Matters
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31 percent on April 24, 2026, and the 5-year at 3.94 percent on April 23, 2026, putting the 10Y-5Y spread at approximately 37 basis points. The spread captures the back of the belly: the segment between the rate-expectations-dominated belly (2Y to 5Y) and the term-premium-dominated long end (10Y onwards). Historically the spread has averaged 30 to 50 basis points, with regime-dependent variation. The current 37 bp spread sits in the middle of its three-year range. The spread inverted briefly during the deepest 2022-2023 inversions but for most of that cycle stayed marginally positive. The 10Y-5Y is one of the cleanest term-premium gauges available because expected rate paths at 5Y and 10Y differ by only a small amount.
The April 2026 Configuration
Three readings define the April 2026 setup. 10Y at 4.31 percent (April 24), 5Y at 3.94 percent (April 23), spread at 37 basis points. The 5Y is approximately 16 bps above the 2Y (3.78 percent) and 26 bps below the 10Y. The 37 bp spread sits comfortably within the post-2022 range of approximately 30 to 60 basis points.
The spread reflects normal term-premium accumulation between 5Y and 10Y. The 5Y-implied policy path averages fed funds at approximately 3.94 percent over the next 60 months. The 10Y-implied policy path averages fed funds at approximately 3.85 to 3.95 percent over the next 120 months (subtracting term premium of approximately 80-90 bps from 4.31 percent yields approximately 3.45 percent expected average). The 37 bp spread approximates the marginal term premium added by extending duration from 5 years to 10 years.
What the Spread Measures
The 10Y-5Y spread isolates marginal term premium between 5-year and 10-year duration. Both maturities have meaningful term premium components, but the difference in expected-policy-path between 5Y and 10Y is small (the Fed neutral rate is the dominant assumption beyond approximately 5 years).
This means the 10Y-5Y spread is approximately equal to: term premium at 10Y minus term premium at 5Y. Term premium at 5Y is typically small (10 to 30 bps in recent years). Term premium at 10Y is typically 50 to 90 bps. The difference produces the 30 to 50 bp spread that has been the long-run average. The spread becomes more sensitive to fiscal-driven term premium shifts than to Fed policy expectations: rate-expectations changes at horizons of 5 to 10 years move the spread less than they move 2Y-5Y or 5Y-10Y differentials.
Why the Back of the Belly Matters
The 10Y-5Y spread is the cleanest gauge of term-premium evolution at the most-traded duration points. The 5Y is the workhorse for many fixed-income strategies (corporate credit issuance benchmark, mortgage-related curve points, swap-curve benchmarks). The 10Y is the global risk-free benchmark. The spread between them is therefore the most-watched intermediate term-premium signal.
For fixed-income portfolio managers, the 10Y-5Y is often the duration tilt decision: long the spread (long 10Y, short 5Y duration-weighted) is a bet on term-premium expansion (fiscal deficits, Fed QT, foreign demand decline). Short the spread is a bet on term-premium compression (Fed easing, recession-driven safe-haven flows into 10Y, foreign demand acceleration).
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 5Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in 10Y Treasury Yield. Computed from 1,236 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 5Y Treasury Yield rises 0.76% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.71%. 124 qualifying events; 5Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 52% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current 10Y-5Y Treasury spread?+
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.31 percent on April 24, 2026, and the 5-year at 3.94 percent on April 23, 2026, putting the 10Y-5Y spread at approximately 37 basis points. The 5Y is approximately 16 bps above the 2Y (3.78 percent) and 26 bps below the 10Y. The 37 bp spread sits in the middle of the three-year range. Historically the spread has averaged 30 to 50 basis points; the current level is consistent with normal term-premium accumulation between 5Y and 10Y.
What does the 10Y-5Y spread measure?+
The 10Y-5Y spread isolates marginal term premium between 5-year and 10-year duration. Both maturities have term premium, but the difference in expected-policy-path between 5Y and 10Y is small (Fed neutral rate dominates beyond ~5 years). The spread approximately equals term premium at 10Y minus term premium at 5Y. Term premium at 5Y is typically 10-30 bps; term premium at 10Y is typically 50-90 bps. The difference produces the 30-50 bp spread that has been the long-run average. The spread is more sensitive to fiscal-driven term premium shifts than to Fed policy expectations.
How does 10Y-5Y compare to 30Y-10Y?+
Both are pure term-premium gauges but capture different segments. 10Y-5Y at 37 bps captures marginal term premium from 5Y to 10Y (7.4 bps per additional year of duration). 30Y-10Y at 60 bps captures marginal term premium from 10Y to 30Y (3.0 bps per year). The convex shape (front-loaded term premium) is normal: term premium accumulates faster at shorter durations because uncertainty is more concentrated near-term and decays at very long horizons. The 7.4 vs 3.0 bps per year ratio reflects current fiscal-driven term-premium environment.
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