Amazon (AMZN) vs Microsoft (MSFT)
Amazon traded at $250.56 in mid-April 2026 with market capitalization $2.84 trillion. Microsoft traded near $415 with market capitalization $3.14 trillion.
Also known as: Amazon (AMZN) (STK_AMZN, Amazon) · Microsoft (MSFT) (STK_MSFT, Microsoft)
Why This Comparison Matters
Amazon traded at $250.56 in mid-April 2026 with market capitalization $2.84 trillion. Microsoft traded near $415 with market capitalization $3.14 trillion. The MSFT/AMZN market cap ratio of 1.11x has narrowed from 1.40x in early 2024 as AMZN regained ground through AWS acceleration. The pair captures the cloud market leadership war: AWS at $142 billion annualized (32 percent market share) vs Azure at $90 billion (25 percent). Both compete head-to-head for hyperscale cloud and AI workloads, with the customer-supplier relationship absent (each builds infrastructure separately). Combined 2026 capex commitments of $310 to $320 billion ($200 billion AMZN + $110 to $120 billion MSFT) represent the largest two-company capital deployment in tech history.
AMZN and MSFT: The Cloud Duopoly Plus
Amazon and Microsoft are the two largest cloud infrastructure providers globally. Q4 2025 / Q2 fiscal 2026: AWS revenue $35.6 billion (annualized $142 billion, 32 percent market share); Azure revenue approximately $22 billion (annualized $90 billion, 25 percent market share). Combined the two represent 57 percent of cloud infrastructure spending, with Google Cloud (11 percent), Alibaba Cloud (5 percent), Oracle Cloud (3 percent), and others making up the remainder.
The pair captures the cloud leadership war. AWS holds first position by share but Azure has been growing faster (39 percent constant currency in Q2 fiscal 2026 vs AWS 24 percent). The 14 percentage point growth differential has narrowed AWS's share lead from 8 percentage points in 2022 to 7 points in 2026. Markets reward MSFT for the share gain trajectory; AMZN gets credit for absolute revenue scale and AI-specific revenue acceleration.
AWS vs Azure Growth Rates
AWS Q4 2025 growth was 24 percent year-on-year, the highest in 6 quarters. Azure Q2 fiscal 2026 growth was 39 percent in constant currency. The 15 percentage point growth gap has been the central pair driver: when Azure pulls further ahead in growth, MSFT outperforms AMZN; when AWS narrows the gap, AMZN outperforms MSFT.
The growth rate convergence has been driven by AI-specific revenue. AWS AI-specific revenue (Bedrock, SageMaker, Trainium, Inferentia) crossed $10 billion annualized in Q4 2025, growing triple-digit percentages. Azure AI revenue is approximately 15 to 20 percent of Azure (estimated $13 to $18 billion annualized), also growing rapidly. Both companies are competing for the same AI workload share, with MSFT-OpenAI partnership giving Azure first-mover advantage and AMZN-Anthropic partnership providing alternative AI model exposure. The competition is intense and will define the pair through 2026 to 2028.
Capex Race: $200 Billion vs $110 Billion
Amazon's 2026 capex commitment of approximately $200 billion is the largest single-year capex in US corporate history. Microsoft's $110 to $120 billion fiscal 2026 capex is the third-largest (after AMZN and ahead of GOOGL's $175 to $185 billion calendar 2026). Combined AMZN + MSFT capex approaches $320 billion in 2026 across overlapping AI infrastructure investments.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Microsoft (MSFT) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Amazon (AMZN). Computed from 1,285 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Microsoft (MSFT) rises 0.32% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.25%. 128 qualifying events; Microsoft (MSFT) closed positive in 55% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMZN bigger than MSFT?+
No, MSFT is slightly larger. Microsoft traded near $415 with market capitalization $3.14 trillion. Amazon traded at $250.56 in mid-April 2026 with market capitalization $2.84 trillion. The MSFT/AMZN market cap ratio is 1.11x. The gap has narrowed from 1.40x in early 2024 as AMZN regained ground through AWS acceleration. The two are typically the third and fourth largest US public companies (NVIDIA $5.06T first, Apple $4.04T second, Alphabet $4.1T third) with the AMZN-MSFT ranking depending on the specific date.
How big is AWS vs Azure?+
AWS Q4 2025 revenue was $35.6 billion (annualized $142 billion, 32 percent cloud market share). Azure Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue was approximately $22 billion (annualized $90 billion, 25 percent market share). Combined the two represent 57 percent of cloud infrastructure spending. AWS has the larger absolute scale; Azure has been growing faster (39 percent constant currency in Q2 fiscal 2026 vs AWS 24 percent). The 15 percentage point growth gap has narrowed AWS's share lead from 8 percentage points in 2022 to 7 points in 2026.
Whose 2026 capex is bigger?+
Amazon by a substantial margin. AMZN committed approximately $200 billion in 2026 capex (largest single-year capex in US corporate history). MSFT committed $110 to $120 billion in fiscal 2026 (third-largest after AMZN and GOOGL's $175 to $185 billion). Combined AMZN + MSFT capex approaches $320 billion in 2026. The capex differential favors AMZN scale-up. Both companies are buying NVIDIA accelerators at scale and developing custom AI silicon (AMZN Trainium and Inferentia, MSFT Maia and Cobalt). The combined capex flowing largely to NVIDIA produces an estimated $80 to $120 billion of NVDA revenue in 2026 to 2027.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.