Nvidia (NVDA) vs Microsoft (MSFT)
NVIDIA traded at $208 on April 25, 2026, with market capitalization $5.06 trillion (world's most valuable company). Microsoft traded near $415, with market capitalization $3.14 trillion.
Also known as: Nvidia (NVDA) (STK_NVDA, Nvidia) · Microsoft (MSFT) (STK_MSFT, Microsoft)
Why This Comparison Matters
NVIDIA traded at $208 on April 25, 2026, with market capitalization $5.06 trillion (world's most valuable company). Microsoft traded near $415, with market capitalization $3.14 trillion. The NVDA/MSFT market cap ratio of 1.61x is the largest since NVDA overtook MSFT in mid-2024. The pair captures the AI stack rotation: NVIDIA sells the GPUs that power AI training and inference; Microsoft is one of NVIDIA's largest customers (Azure spends $30+ billion annually on NVIDIA hardware) while also building competing custom silicon (Maia). NVDA gained 540 percent from November 2022 through April 2026; MSFT gained 75 percent over the same window. The 465 percentage point outperformance is the cleanest single mega-cap divergence in modern equity history.
NVDA vs MSFT: The AI Stack Order
NVIDIA designs and sells the AI accelerator GPUs that nearly every modern AI workload requires. Microsoft purchases NVIDIA chips at massive scale (estimated $30+ billion annually for Azure) and packages them into cloud services and Copilot products. The customer-supplier relationship makes the pair one of the cleanest in mega-cap equities: NVIDIA captures hardware margin, Microsoft captures software margin, both win when AI capex grows.
The revenue compositions reflect the stack position. NVIDIA Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue was $68.1 billion (90 percent data center). Microsoft Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue was $81.3 billion (Azure $90 billion annualized, productivity software $30 billion+, balance gaming and other). The data point for AI exposure: roughly $250 billion of NVIDIA annualized revenue versus roughly $90 billion of Azure annualized revenue. NVIDIA has 2.8x larger AI-direct revenue scale than Microsoft Azure.
The 2024 Crossover
NVIDIA briefly overtook Microsoft as the world's most valuable company on June 18, 2024, the first time in nearly two years. Microsoft had been the most valuable company for several months in 2024 after briefly overtaking Apple in January. The June 2024 NVIDIA crossover was a watershed moment: a chipmaker became more valuable than the company that bought its chips at scale.
NVIDIA held the top position briefly before Microsoft regained it through July 2024. The two companies traded the top spot multiple times through Q3 2024 before NVIDIA decisively pulled away in Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 as data center revenue acceleration overwhelmed Microsoft's Azure trajectory. By April 2026, NVIDIA at $5.06 trillion has 1.61x the market cap of Microsoft at $3.14 trillion. The gap is the largest in technology peer history; previous mega-cap leadership transitions (IBM-Microsoft 1990s, Microsoft-Apple 2010s) saw smaller eventual gaps.
The Capex Dynamic
The two companies are linked through capex flows. Microsoft's $110 to $120 billion fiscal 2026 capex is largely spent on NVIDIA accelerators and supporting infrastructure. Estimated $30 to $40 billion of MSFT capex flows directly to NVIDIA. The capex relationship has produced parallel growth: as MSFT capex has expanded from $40 billion in fiscal 2024 to $110+ billion in fiscal 2026, NVIDIA data center revenue has tripled.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Microsoft (MSFT) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Nvidia (NVDA). Computed from 1,281 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Microsoft (MSFT) falls 0.06% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.18%. 129 qualifying events; Microsoft (MSFT) closed positive in 54% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVDA bigger than MSFT?+
Yes, by a substantial margin. NVIDIA traded at $208 on April 25, 2026, with market capitalization $5.06 trillion. Microsoft traded near $415 with market capitalization $3.14 trillion. The NVDA/MSFT ratio is 1.61x, the largest gap since NVDA overtook MSFT in mid-2024. NVIDIA briefly overtook Microsoft as the world's most valuable company on June 18, 2024 (the first chipmaker more valuable than the company buying its chips at scale). The two companies traded the top spot multiple times through Q3 2024 before NVIDIA decisively pulled away in Q4 2024 to Q1 2025.
How are NVDA and MSFT related?+
NVIDIA designs and sells AI accelerator GPUs; Microsoft is one of NVIDIA's largest customers, purchasing an estimated $30+ billion annually of NVIDIA hardware for Azure. The customer-supplier relationship makes the pair one of the cleanest in mega-cap equities: NVIDIA captures hardware margin, Microsoft captures software margin, both win when AI capex grows. Microsoft's $110 to $120 billion fiscal 2026 capex is largely spent on NVIDIA accelerators. As MSFT capex has expanded from $40 billion in fiscal 2024 to $110+ billion in fiscal 2026, NVIDIA data center revenue has tripled.
How much has NVDA outperformed MSFT?+
Substantially. From November 2022 (ChatGPT release) through April 2026, NVDA gained approximately 540 percent versus MSFT 75 percent. The 465 percentage point outperformance is the cleanest single mega-cap divergence in modern equity history. The NVDA/MSFT ratio expanded from 0.06 in November 2022 to 0.50 in April 2026, an approximately 8x relative move. NVDA outperformed MSFT in 9 of 11 quarterly windows from Q4 2022 through Q3 2025. The structural pattern has been remarkably consistent.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.