Amazon (AMZN) vs Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Amazon (AMZN) is approximately 27% of XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR), the largest single-name weight in any sector ETF outside XLY's own Tesla position at roughly 18%. Amazon plus Tesla together represent more than 40% of XLY assets, making the fund a two-stock proxy more than a diversified consumer basket.
Also known as: Amazon (AMZN) (STK_AMZN, Amazon) · Consumer Discretionary (XLY) (ETF_XLY, consumer discretionary)
Why This Comparison Matters
Amazon (AMZN) is approximately 27% of XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR), the largest single-name weight in any sector ETF outside XLY's own Tesla position at roughly 18%. Amazon plus Tesla together represent more than 40% of XLY assets, making the fund a two-stock proxy more than a diversified consumer basket. AMZN reported Q1 2026 revenue of $181.5 billion, up 17% year-on-year, with AWS growth accelerating to 28% (a 15-quarter high) and capex jumping to $44.2 billion versus $25 billion a year earlier. The pair captures whether consumer-discretionary strength is being driven by Amazon-specific AI-and-cloud economics or by broader retail-and-services demand. The April 2026 picture says it is overwhelmingly the former.
What XLY actually holds and the Amazon-Tesla concentration
XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) holds 51 stocks tracking the S&P 500 consumer-discretionary industry sub-set. As of late April 2026 the top weights are Amazon at roughly 27.30%, Tesla at roughly 17.88%, Home Depot at 5.69%, TJX Companies at 4.05%, and McDonald's at 4.05%. The top ten holdings represent 70.91% of fund assets. Amazon and Tesla combined are over 45% of the ETF, the highest two-stock concentration of any major sector SPDR.
The practical implication is that XLY moves like a leveraged Amazon-and-Tesla wrapper rather than a diversified consumer basket. The 2024 calendar year saw XLY return 30% versus SPY 25%, almost entirely driven by Tesla's 63% gain and Amazon's 44% gain. The 2022 selloff saw XLY decline 36% versus SPY 19%, again driven by Amazon down 50% and Tesla down 65%. The 'consumer-discretionary' label substantially understates the actual concentration risk and the tech-and-AI exposure embedded in the fund.
Amazon's Q1 2026 results and the AWS reacceleration
Amazon reported Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026. Total revenue printed at $181.5 billion, up 17% year-on-year versus consensus of $176 billion. The headline beat was concentrated in AWS, which grew 28% year-on-year on a $150 billion annualized run-rate, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters and well above the 26% consensus. AWS operating income of $14.2 billion at a 37.7% operating margin showed the AI-capex monetization translating to bottom-line economics rather than burning cash.
Capital expenditure jumped to $44.2 billion in Q1 2026 versus $25 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting AI-infrastructure buildout (Trainium chip deployment, Anthropic-related capacity, custom Nvidia GB200 clusters). Advertising revenue printed at $17.24 billion, with trailing-twelve-month ad revenue above $70 billion at high incremental margins. North America retail revenue grew 12% to $104.1 billion with operating margin expanding from 8.0% to 9.0% year-on-year. Diluted EPS of $2.78 trounced the $1.64 consensus.
The AMZN-XLY ratio: what spread divergences actually reveal
The AMZN/XLY ratio is structurally tight because Amazon is 27% of XLY by construction. AMZN outperforming XLY by 100 basis points means the other 73% of XLY (led by Tesla, Home Depot, TJX, McDonald's, Booking, Lowes, Starbucks, Nike) is underperforming AMZN by approximately 370 basis points. The ratio is a direct read on relative consumer-discretionary breadth.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Consumer Discretionary (XLY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Amazon (AMZN). Computed from 1,285 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rises 0.23% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.09%. 128 qualifying events; Consumer Discretionary (XLY) closed positive in 55% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much of XLY is Amazon?+
Approximately 27.30% as of late April 2026, the largest single-name weight in any major sector SPDR. Tesla is the second-largest at roughly 17.88%, putting Amazon plus Tesla at over 45% of XLY assets. Home Depot at 5.69%, TJX Companies at 4.05%, and McDonald's at 4.05% round out the top five. The top ten holdings represent 70.91% of fund assets across only 51 total holdings. The Amazon-Tesla concentration makes XLY function more like a two-stock proxy than a diversified consumer-discretionary basket.
What did Amazon report in Q1 2026?+
Total revenue $181.5 billion, up 17% year-on-year versus $176 billion consensus. AWS grew 28% on a $150 billion annualized run-rate, the fastest in 15 quarters and well above the 26% consensus. AWS operating income $14.2 billion at 37.7% margin. Advertising revenue $17.24 billion (TTM above $70 billion). North America retail revenue grew 12% to $104.1 billion with operating margin expanding from 8.0% to 9.0%. Diluted EPS of $2.78 versus $1.64 consensus. Capital expenditure jumped to $44.2 billion versus $25 billion in Q1 2025.
What does AMZN outperforming XLY actually signal?+
AMZN is 27% of XLY by construction, so AMZN outperforming XLY by 100 basis points means the other 73% of XLY (Tesla, Home Depot, TJX, McDonald's, Booking, Lowes, Starbucks, Nike) is underperforming AMZN by approximately 370 basis points. The spread is a direct read on consumer-discretionary breadth: AMZN-leadership flags concentration into AI-and-cloud economics, while XLY-leadership flags rotation into Tesla-specific drivers or traditional retail-cyclical breadth.
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