CAC 40 vs S&P 500
The CAC 40 is the French large-cap equity benchmark of 40 most liquid stocks listed on Euronext Paris. Top weights include TotalEnergies (TTE) at approximately 9.52 percent (energy), Schneider Electric at 7.57 percent (industrial automation, electrification), Sanofi (healthcare, pharmaceutical), LVMH (luxury), Hermes (luxury), L'Oreal (consumer staples), Airbus (aerospace), and Stellantis (automotive).
Also known as: CAC 40 (CAC, French equities) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
The CAC 40 is the French large-cap equity benchmark of 40 most liquid stocks listed on Euronext Paris. Top weights include TotalEnergies (TTE) at approximately 9.52 percent (energy), Schneider Electric at 7.57 percent (industrial automation, electrification), Sanofi (healthcare, pharmaceutical), LVMH (luxury), Hermes (luxury), L'Oreal (consumer staples), Airbus (aerospace), and Stellantis (automotive). SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) tracks the cap-weighted S&P 500 with current price $708. The pair captures luxury + industrial + energy French composition vs US tech-led broad-market. CAC 40 outperforms during luxury spending cycles and EU industrial recovery. CAC 40 underperforms during US tech-led narratives and luxury demand contraction.
The April 2026 Configuration
CAC 40 closes April 24, 2026 at 8,249 (intraday range April 9 was 8,183.36 to 8,254.56). SPY closes at $708. CAC 40 is down approximately 6-7 percent year-to-date, placing it among underperformers within developed markets in 2026.
The luxury sector experienced significant volatility in April 2026: April 8 rally LVMH +6.9 percent and Hermes +7.3 percent on improved geopolitical backdrop following ceasefire announcements; mid-April decline LVMH -1.9 percent on Q1 fashion/leather goods miss; April 16 LVMH -7.5 percent on full Q1 sales -3 percent vs +2 percent expected. LVMH management warned that Iran conflict had reduced group sales by at least 1 percentage point in the quarter.
The combined April 2026 reading: CAC 40 facing renewed selling pressure with luxury heavyweights weighing on sentiment after disappointing Q1 earnings reports. The 6-7 percent YTD decline contrasts with broader European outperformance (STOXX 600 +17.5 percent YTD in EUR). CAC 40 underperformance reflects luxury sector weakness specific to French composition.
CAC 40 Composition: Luxury Plus Energy Plus Healthcare
CAC 40 sector composition (April 2026): Energy approximately 10 percent (TotalEnergies dominant); Industrial Goods/Services approximately 18 percent (Schneider Electric, Airbus, Vinci, Saint-Gobain); Luxury/Consumer Discretionary approximately 22 percent (LVMH, Hermes, Kering, EssilorLuxottica); Healthcare approximately 13 percent (Sanofi, Pernod Ricard, EssilorLuxottica); Banks/Insurance approximately 13 percent (BNP Paribas, AXA, Credit Agricole, SocGen); Consumer Staples approximately 8 percent (L'Oreal, Pernod Ricard); Technology approximately 5 percent (Capgemini, Dassault Systemes); Other approximately 11 percent.
Top weights detail: TotalEnergies (TTE) 9.52 percent (Energy Minerals); Schneider Electric (SU) 7.57 percent (Producer Manufacturing); Sanofi (SAN) approximately 6 percent (Health Technology); LVMH approximately 8 percent (Consumer Discretionary luxury); Hermes approximately 5 percent (luxury); L'Oreal approximately 5 percent (consumer staples); Airbus approximately 4 percent (aerospace); Air Liquide approximately 3 percent (industrial gases).
The practical implication: CAC 40 is a unique blend of luxury (Tier-1 global luxury exposure), energy (TotalEnergies leverage to oil), industrial automation (Schneider Electric electrification leader), and healthcare (Sanofi vaccine and pharma exposure). The composition makes CAC 40 sensitive to global luxury demand (China consumer rebound), oil prices (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), industrial capex cycles (electrification, AI infrastructure), and healthcare innovation cycles.
How CAC 40 and S&P 500 Diverge
CAC 40 and SPY have distinct compositions and macro exposures. CAC 40 has zero direct AI/mega-cap tech exposure (Capgemini and Dassault Systemes provide minimal tech). SPY has top 7 mega-cap tech ~32 percent of index. CAC 40 has luxury heavyweight exposure (LVMH, Hermes, Kering combined ~17 percent). SPY has minimal luxury exposure.
The practical implication: CAC 40 outperforms during specific macro regimes. Global luxury demand recovery: CAC 40 outperforms substantially as China consumer rebounds, US wealthy consumer spending strong. EU industrial expansion: CAC 40 benefits from Schneider Electric (electrification capex) and Airbus (aerospace). Energy supply shocks: CAC 40 benefits from TotalEnergies leverage to oil. Healthcare innovation: CAC 40 benefits from Sanofi pharma. AI capex narrative: SPY dominates over CAC 40 (no direct tech exposure).
Correlation between CAC 40 (USD terms) and SPY averages 0.65-0.80 in normal conditions. During global risk-off correlation rises to 0.85+. During US-specific events correlation drops. Beta of CAC 40 to SPY: approximately 1.10-1.30 over 2020-2026 (similar to DAX due to currency exposure plus cyclical sensitivity).
The Luxury Cycle Drives CAC 40
Luxury sector approximately 22 percent of CAC 40 makes it the most luxury-exposed major developed-market index. The luxury cycle has been the dominant driver of CAC 40 dispersion vs other European indices.
2010-2018 luxury supercycle: China consumer wealth expansion drove LVMH revenue growth 8-12 percent annually. LVMH stock rose from EUR 100 to EUR 800 over the period (8x). CAC 40 outperformed European peers significantly.
2020-2021 COVID rebound + revenge spending: LVMH revenue grew 36 percent in 2021 as wealthy consumers spent revenge dollars on luxury. CAC 40 reached new highs.
2022-2023 China zero-COVID drag: China consumer demand weakness pressured LVMH revenue. LVMH stock fell from EUR 850 (April 2023 peak) to EUR 600 by end of 2024.
2024-2025 China stimulus uncertainty: LVMH revenue +4 percent in 2024 (modest recovery). Hermes outperformed (+12 percent revenue growth) due to ultra-luxury positioning. The dispersion within luxury supported careful stock-picking.
2026 luxury weakness: LVMH Q1 2026 -3 percent revenue (vs +2 percent expected). Iran conflict reducing group sales by 1+ percentage point. LVMH stock down approximately 25 percent peak-to-trough from 2023 highs. CAC 40 -6-7 percent YTD primarily reflects luxury weakness.
The practical implication: CAC 40 performance leads/lags broader European index based on luxury cycle dynamics. Watch China stimulus for luxury demand catalysts.
How the Pair Performed Through Cycles
Three macro cycle examples of CAC 40-vs-SPY dynamics. 2010-2015 European recovery: CAC 40 rose from 3,800 to 5,000 (+32 percent in EUR terms). SPY rose from $130 to $200 (+54 percent USD). SPY outperformed by approximately 22 percentage points (in EUR-translated terms, gap larger).
2017-2021 US tech dominance: CAC 40 rose from 4,800 to 7,200 (+50 percent EUR). SPY rose from $230 to $480 (+109 percent USD, approximately +95 percent EUR). SPY outperformed CAC 40 by approximately 45 percentage points in EUR terms over the period.
2022 Russia invasion: CAC 40 fell from 7,400 to 5,700 (-23 percent peak-to-trough October 2022). SPY fell 25 percent peak-to-trough. CAC 40 fell less than SPY (luxury and energy more defensive than US tech in inflation regime).
2024-2026 mixed era: CAC 40 from 7,500 (early 2024) to 8,249 (April 2026, +10 percent EUR terms). SPY from $470 to $708 (+51 percent USD, +35 percent EUR-translated). CAC 40 underperformed by approximately 25 percentage points in EUR terms (luxury weakness specific to French composition).
The pattern: SPY outperforms CAC 40 during US tech-led growth narratives. CAC 40 outperforms during luxury demand recoveries plus energy supply tightness.
How the Pair Performs in Stress
Stress history shows specific CAC 40-vs-SPY patterns. 2008-09 GFC: CAC 40 fell from 6,200 to 2,500 (-60 percent peak-to-trough); SPY fell 57 percent. Roughly parallel decline.
2011 European debt crisis: CAC 40 fell from 4,200 to 2,700 (-36 percent peak-to-trough September 2011); SPY fell 19 percent. CAC 40 underperformance gap approximately 17 percent (regional crisis specific to Europe).
2020 COVID flash crash: CAC 40 fell from 6,100 to 3,800 (-38 percent March 2020); SPY fell 34 percent. CAC 40 underperformance gap approximately 4 percent.
2022 Russia invasion: CAC 40 fell from 7,400 to 5,700 (-23 percent peak-to-trough October 2022); SPY fell 25 percent. CAC 40 outperformed (luxury and energy defensive in inflation regime).
2026 Iran war: CAC 40 down approximately 6-7 percent YTD with luxury weakness; SPY down approximately 8 percent peak-to-trough. CAC 40 modestly outperformed in EUR terms (energy benefited, luxury hurt).
The pattern: CAC 40/SPY compresses during European-specific crises (2011) and US-led growth phases. The pair expands during energy supply shocks where CAC 40 has TotalEnergies tailwind.
Volatility and Trading
CAC 40 realized volatility approximately 17-22 percent annualized vs SPY 13-18 percent. The 1.0-1.4x ratio reflects French cyclical exposure plus currency translation effects (EUR/USD adds 5-7 percent annualized vol for USD-based investors).
60-day rolling correlation between CAC 40 (USD terms) and SPY averages 0.70-0.85 (positive, similar to Euro Stoxx 50/SPY due to broader European exposure). During global risk-off correlation rises to 0.90+. During US-specific events correlation drops to 0.45-0.60.
For pair-trade implementation, CAC 40 exposure through EWQ ETF (iShares MSCI France ETF, USD-quoted), Lyxor CAC 40 ETF (European-listed), or CAC 40 futures (FCE on Euronext). Direct trading of French equities through ADRs (LVMUY for LVMH, SNY for Sanofi, TTE for TotalEnergies). SPY exposure through SPY ETF, IVV, or VOO.
The pair has produced cyclical returns. 2024-2026 long SPY short CAC 40 (USD) gained approximately 25 percentage points cumulative as luxury weakness dragged CAC 40. 2017-2021 long SPY short CAC 40 gained 45+ percentage points. 2010-2015 long SPY short CAC 40 gained 22 percentage points.
Reading the Pair as a Trading Tool
For pair traders comparing CAC 40 to SPY, focus on relative performance ratios in common currency. Convert to USD for like-for-like comparison.
Current setup: CAC 40 8,249 EUR, EUR/USD 1.168, equivalent CAC 40 USD value approximately 9,635 in USD-equivalent points. SPY $708 in USD. Compare YTD changes.
Long CAC 40 / short SPY (USD) captures luxury cycle recovery + China rebound scenarios: benefits from China consumer stimulus driving luxury demand, EU industrial capex acceleration (Schneider Electric), oil supply tightness (TotalEnergies), Sanofi pipeline announcements, US tech multiple compression.
Long SPY / short CAC 40 captures continued US tech dominance + luxury weakness: benefits from AI capex narrative, China consumer weakness, dollar strength, LVMH/Hermes/Kering disappointment.
Position sizing: CAC 40 17-22 percent vol vs SPY 13-18 percent (1.0-1.4x). Pair has produced cyclical returns: 2024-2026 long SPY short CAC 40 +25pp; 2017-2021 long SPY short CAC 40 +45pp; 2010-2015 long SPY short CAC 40 +22pp.
Most actionable when luxury demand + energy direction divergent from US tech narrative. April 2026 setup: luxury weakness (LVMH disappointment), AI capex narrative dominant. Setup favors continued SPY outperformance unless China stimulus, EU fiscal acceleration, or US tech multiple compression emerges.
How CAC 40-vs-SPY Compares to Other European Pairs
CAC 40/SPY captures France-specific luxury + energy + healthcare exposure. Compared to other European pairs.
Vs DAX/SPY: DAX is Germany-only with industrial concentration (33 percent industrial). CAC 40 is France-only with luxury concentration (22 percent). Different sector tilts: DAX cyclical industrial; CAC luxury consumer.
Vs Euro Stoxx 50/SPY: Euro Stoxx 50 broader eurozone (50 names from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands). CAC 40 is France subset within Euro Stoxx 50. Approximately 35-45 percent of Euro Stoxx 50 weight is from French companies (LVMH, TotalEnergies, Sanofi, L'Oreal, Schneider Electric, Hermes).
Vs FTSE/SPY: FTSE 100 (UK) non-eurozone with heavy energy + materials (~22 percent). CAC 40 has TotalEnergies but more diverse luxury + healthcare + industrial mix.
Vs EWQ/SPY: EWQ is iShares MSCI France ETF, broader French equity exposure (50+ stocks vs CAC 40's 40). EWQ is the USD-tradable version of CAC exposure.
For allocator monitoring, CAC 40/SPY serves as the French luxury + energy + industrial gauge. April 2026 reading: CAC 40 -6-7 percent YTD reflects luxury weakness (LVMH Q1 disappointment) despite improving European backdrop. The pair complements DAX/SPY (Germany industrial), Euro Stoxx 50/SPY (broader eurozone), FTSE/SPY (UK commodity), EFA/SPY (broader DM) for comprehensive European country-rotation read.
Forward View: Watch Luxury Demand and TotalEnergies
CAC 40 8,249 (April 24 2026), SPY $708. CAC 40 -6-7 percent YTD (vs STOXX 600 +17.5 percent in EUR). LVMH Q1 2026 -3 percent revenue, -7.5 percent on April 16. Hermes performing better. TotalEnergies 9.52 percent of CAC 40, Schneider Electric 7.57 percent, Sanofi ~6 percent. EUR/USD 1.168.
Forward-looking through 2026: luxury cycle remains key driver. China stimulus could catalyze luxury demand recovery. Iran ceasefire stabilization could remove geopolitical drag. Schneider Electric electrification capex tailwind continues. TotalEnergies leverage to oil price (positive in supply shock scenarios). Sanofi vaccine and pharma pipeline catalysts.
Risk factors: continued China consumer weakness; sustained luxury demand contraction; LVMH/Hermes/Kering Q2 2026 earnings disappointment; oil price collapse (negative for TotalEnergies); EUR/USD weakness (negative for translation).
Watch China stimulus announcements for luxury demand catalysts. Watch LVMH and Kering Q2 earnings. Watch oil prices for TotalEnergies leverage. Watch Schneider Electric guidance for electrification capex trajectory. Expected CAC 40 range-bound 8,000-8,500 absent major catalyst. Mean reversion vs SPY would require luxury demand recovery or US tech multiple compression.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in CAC 40. Computed from 1,251 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.11% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.26%. 126 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 52% of them.
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) falls 0.06% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.26%. 125 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 53% of them.
Past behavior in the tails is descriptive, not predictive. Mean response is the simple arithmetic mean of compounded 5-day forward returns following each trigger event; baseline is the unconditional mean across the full sample window. Edge measures the gap between the two.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are CAC 40 and SPY?+
CAC 40 is the French large-cap equity benchmark of 40 most liquid stocks listed on Euronext Paris. Currently 8,249 (April 24 2026, range April 9 was 8,183-8,254). Top weights: TotalEnergies (TTE) 9.52% (energy), Schneider Electric (SU) 7.57% (industrial automation), Sanofi (SAN) ~6% (health), LVMH ~8% (luxury), Hermes ~5% (luxury), L'Oreal ~5% (consumer staples), Airbus ~4% (aerospace). Luxury sector ~22% of CAC 40. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) tracks cap-weighted S&P 500 at $708. CAC 40 -6-7% YTD 2026 (underperformer within DM); STOXX 600 broader benchmark +17.5% YTD in EUR.
How does CAC 40 composition differ from SPY?+
CAC 40 sector composition: Energy ~10% (TotalEnergies); Industrial Goods/Services ~18% (Schneider Electric, Airbus, Vinci, Saint-Gobain); Luxury/Consumer Discretionary ~22% (LVMH, Hermes, Kering, EssilorLuxottica); Healthcare ~13% (Sanofi, Pernod Ricard); Banks/Insurance ~13% (BNP Paribas, AXA, Credit Agricole, SocGen); Consumer Staples ~8% (L'Oreal); Technology ~5% (Capgemini, Dassault Systemes). SPY: Tech + Communication Services ~35% (mega-cap tech), Healthcare 13%, Financials 13%. CAC 40 zero direct AI/mega-cap tech exposure. SPY minimal luxury exposure. Different macro tilts: CAC luxury consumer + energy; SPY tech-growth.
How does the luxury cycle drive CAC 40?+
Luxury ~22% of CAC 40 makes it most luxury-exposed major DM index. Cycle drives dispersion vs other European indices. 2010-2018 luxury supercycle: China consumer wealth drove LVMH revenue +8-12% annually, LVMH stock 8x. 2020-2021 COVID rebound + revenge spending: LVMH revenue +36% in 2021. 2022-2023 China zero-COVID drag: LVMH stock fell EUR 850 (April 2023 peak) to EUR 600 by end 2024. 2024-2025 modest recovery: LVMH +4% in 2024; Hermes +12% (ultra-luxury). 2026 luxury weakness: LVMH Q1 2026 -3% revenue; Iran conflict reduced group sales 1+pp; LVMH stock -25% from 2023 highs. CAC 40 -6-7% YTD primarily reflects luxury weakness.
How did the pair perform through cycles?+
2010-2015 European recovery: CAC 40 +32% EUR; SPY +54% USD. SPY outperformed ~22pp. 2017-2021 US tech dominance: CAC 40 +50% EUR; SPY +109% USD (+95% EUR). SPY outperformed ~45pp in EUR. 2022 Russia: CAC 40 -23% peak-to-trough Oct 2022; SPY -25%. CAC less because luxury and energy more defensive in inflation regime. 2024-2026: CAC 40 +10% EUR; SPY +51% USD (+35% EUR). CAC underperformed ~25pp in EUR (luxury weakness specific). Pattern: SPY outperforms CAC during US tech-led growth narratives. CAC outperforms during luxury demand recoveries plus energy supply tightness.
How does the pair perform in stress?+
2008-09 GFC: CAC 40 -60% peak-to-trough; SPY -57%. Roughly parallel. 2011 European debt: CAC 40 -36% peak-to-trough Sep 2011; SPY -19%. CAC underperformance gap ~17% (regional crisis). 2020 COVID: CAC 40 -38% (March 2020); SPY -34%. Gap ~4%. 2022 Russia: CAC 40 -23% peak-to-trough Oct 2022; SPY -25%. CAC outperformed (luxury and energy defensive). 2026 Iran war: CAC 40 -6-7% YTD with luxury weakness; SPY -8%. CAC modestly outperformed in EUR (energy benefited, luxury hurt). Pattern: CAC/SPY compresses during European-specific crises. Expands during energy supply shocks (TotalEnergies tailwind).
How volatile is the pair?+
CAC 40 realized volatility ~17-22% annualized vs SPY 13-18% (1.0-1.4x ratio reflects French cyclical exposure plus currency translation - EUR/USD adds 5-7% annualized vol for USD investors). 60-day rolling correlation 0.70-0.85 (positive, similar to Euro Stoxx 50/SPY). During global risk-off rises to 0.90+. During US-specific events drops to 0.45-0.60. Beta of CAC 40 to SPY 1.10-1.30. CAC 40 exposure: EWQ ETF (iShares MSCI France USD), Lyxor CAC 40 ETF (European-listed), or CAC 40 futures (FCE on Euronext). French equity ADRs: LVMUY (LVMH), SNY (Sanofi), TTE (TotalEnergies). SPY exposure: SPY, IVV, VOO.
How do I trade CAC 40 vs SPY?+
Long CAC 40 / short SPY (USD) captures luxury cycle recovery + China rebound: benefits from China consumer stimulus driving luxury demand, EU industrial capex acceleration (Schneider Electric), oil supply tightness (TotalEnergies), Sanofi pipeline announcements, US tech multiple compression. Long SPY / short CAC 40 captures continued US tech dominance + luxury weakness: benefits from AI capex narrative, China consumer weakness, dollar strength, LVMH/Hermes/Kering disappointment. Position sizing: CAC 40 17-22% vol vs SPY 13-18% (1.0-1.4x). 2024-2026 long SPY short CAC 40 (USD) gained +25pp. Most actionable when luxury demand + energy direction divergent from US tech narrative.
How does CAC 40-vs-SPY compare to other European pairs?+
Vs DAX/SPY: DAX Germany-only with industrial concentration (33% industrial). CAC 40 France-only with luxury concentration (22%). Different tilts: DAX cyclical industrial; CAC luxury consumer. Vs Euro Stoxx 50/SPY: Euro Stoxx 50 broader eurozone. ~35-45% of Euro Stoxx 50 weight from French companies (LVMH, TotalEnergies, Sanofi, L'Oreal, Schneider Electric, Hermes). CAC 40 is France subset within Euro Stoxx 50. Vs FTSE/SPY: FTSE 100 UK non-eurozone with heavy energy + materials (~22%). CAC has TotalEnergies but more diverse luxury + healthcare + industrial. April 2026 reading CAC 40 -6-7% YTD reflects luxury weakness despite improving European backdrop.
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