1Y vs 2Y Treasury Yield: The Treasury Yield Curve Hub
The Treasury yield curve has fully un-inverted from its 2022 to 2024 deep inversion. As of April 29, 2026, the curve reads 1Y at 3.85 percent, 2Y at 3.90 percent, 10Y at 4.31 percent, 30Y at 4.55 percent, with SOFR at 3.62 percent and EFFR at 3.63 percent (all anchored within the FOMC range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent).
Also known as: 1Y Treasury Yield (1Y yield, 1 year treasury) · 2Y Treasury Yield (2Y yield, 2 year treasury)
Why This Comparison Matters
The Treasury yield curve has fully un-inverted from its 2022 to 2024 deep inversion. As of April 29, 2026, the curve reads 1Y at 3.85 percent, 2Y at 3.90 percent, 10Y at 4.31 percent, 30Y at 4.55 percent, with SOFR at 3.62 percent and EFFR at 3.63 percent (all anchored within the FOMC range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent). The 1Y-2Y spread is positive 5 basis points, the 2Y-10Y spread is positive 41 basis points, the 1Y-30Y spread is positive 70 basis points. This represents the cleanest positive-normal-shaped curve since 2021 and a 199 basis point swing from the October 2023 minimum. This hub page covers the full Treasury curve in dedicated sections covering 1Y-2Y, 1Y-30Y, 2Y-30Y, and EFFR-SOFR plumbing, plus the broader curve regime story.
The April 2026 Snapshot: Full Curve Map
As of April 29, 2026, the Treasury yield curve is fully positive normal-shaped. Key levels: SOFR 3.62 percent, EFFR 3.63 percent, FOMC target 3.50-3.75 percent. 1Y Treasury 3.85 percent, 2Y Treasury 3.90 percent, 5Y approximately 4.10 percent, 10Y 4.31 percent, 30Y 4.55 percent. The 1Y-2Y spread is positive 5 basis points (slight upward slope at the short end). The 2Y-10Y spread is positive 41 basis points (the most-watched recession indicator, now well into normal territory). The 1Y-30Y spread is positive 70 basis points (full curve capture). The 2Y-30Y spread is positive 65 basis points.
The full curve is steeper than at any time since 2021. The cleanest summary: markets expect the Fed to deliver an additional 50 to 75 basis points of cuts through 2026 (priced into the front end), with the long end normalizing higher on term premium reconstitution. Positive curve means the recession indicator that flashed continuously from July 2022 through August 2024 is now off; whether the eventual recession materializes from current re-steepening or whether the steepening signals continued expansion is the central macro question.
Why the 1Y-2Y Spread Decodes Fed Expectations
The 1Y Treasury yield averages expected fed funds over the next 12 months. The 2Y Treasury averages expected fed funds over the next 24 months. The difference (1Y minus 2Y) therefore encodes one specific question: is the market pricing more easing in months 13 to 24 than in months 1 to 12?
When 1Y trades above 2Y, the curve is "humped" or partially inverted at the short end, signaling the market expects more cuts in months 13 to 24 than in months 1 to 12. This often happens when the Fed has begun a hiking cycle but markets price an eventual reversal (1979-1980, 2000, 2007, 2022-2023). When 1Y trades below 2Y (current April 2026 setup with 1Y at 3.85 vs 2Y at 3.90), the market expects rate cuts to slow or stop in months 13 to 24, with rates settling near a terminal level. This is the classic post-easing-cycle configuration. The pair therefore captures Fed-cycle phase: hiking, peak, easing, terminal, or expansion. Each phase has a characteristic 1Y-2Y signature.
The Fed Funds → 1Y → 2Y → 10Y → 30Y Cascade
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 2Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in 1Y Treasury Yield. Computed from 1,245 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 2Y Treasury Yield rises 4.49% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +1.48%. 125 qualifying events; 2Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 65% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the April 30, 2026 Treasury yields across the curve?+
Full curve: SOFR 3.62 percent, EFFR 3.63 percent, FOMC target 3.50-3.75 percent. 1Y Treasury 3.85 percent, 2Y 3.90 percent, 5Y approximately 4.10 percent, 10Y 4.31 percent, 30Y 4.55 percent. Key spreads: 1Y-2Y +5bp, 2Y-10Y +41bp (the most-watched recession indicator), 1Y-30Y +70bp, 2Y-30Y +65bp. The full curve is positive normal-shaped, the steepest configuration since 2021 and a 199 basis point swing from the October 2023 minimum.
Is the yield curve still inverted in April 2026?+
No. The curve fully un-inverted in August 2024 after 26 consecutive months of inversion (July 2022 to August 2024). All major spread measures are now positive: 2Y-10Y at +41bp, 3M-10Y at +69bp, 1Y-30Y at +70bp. The re-steepening has continued through 2025 and 2026 as the Fed delivered 100 basis points of cuts (September to December 2024) and term premium continues normalizing. The most recent year and a half has seen the full curve transition from deeply inverted to fully normal.
Why didn't the 2022-2024 inversion produce a recession?+
Three explanations. First, term premium was structurally suppressed by 2010-2022 Fed QE, making rate-hike-driven front-end rises produce mechanical inversion without recessionary force. Second, post-COVID nominal GDP growth (5-7 percent) plus large fiscal deficits ($2 trillion+) supported corporate earnings and consumer balance sheets through the rate-hike cycle. Third, the labor market remained tight (unemployment 3.5-4.5 percent), preventing the layoff cascade that traditionally amplifies recession transmission. The 26-month inversion is the longest false-positive yield curve signal in 50+ years.
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