ExxonMobil (XOM) vs S&P 500
ExxonMobil closed at $148.85 on April 25, 2026, with a $627.67 billion market cap. SPY traded near $708 the same week.
Also known as: Exxon Mobil (XOM) (STK_XOM, Exxon) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
ExxonMobil closed at $148.85 on April 25, 2026, with a $627.67 billion market cap. SPY traded near $708 the same week. XOM is approximately 1.3 percent of the S&P 500, making it the largest energy holding and a top-15 S&P 500 component. The pair captures the energy-versus-broad-market rotation in cleaner form than XLE-vs-SPY because XOM has the integrated diversification that approximates a balanced energy bet. Year-to-date 2026, XOM has gained approximately 9 percent versus SPY 1 percent, an 8 percentage point outperformance driven by the Iran war oil shock that lifted WTI from $73 in early February to $95.85 on April 23. The 60-day correlation between XOM and SPY is currently 0.42 versus 0.62 long-run average.
XOM's Position in the S&P 500
XOM at $627.67 billion market cap represents approximately 1.3 percent of the S&P 500. Within energy, XOM is the largest component and 22.85 percent of XLE. The S&P 500 energy sector represents approximately 4 percent of the index, with XOM and Chevron together approximately 2.5 percent.
The XOM/SPY ratio currently trades at approximately 0.21 (XOM $148.85 / SPY $708). The ratio has ranged from 0.13 in early 2020 (oil collapse) to 0.24 in late 2022 (oil rally to $124). Above 0.22 indicates XOM extended outperformance; below 0.18 indicates SPY-dominated regime. The current 0.21 reflects the Iran war driving energy outperformance.
XOM and SPY Correlation Through Cycles
The 60-day rolling correlation between XOM and SPY varies between 0.20 (oil-shock periods) and 0.85 (normal market conditions). Long-run average is approximately 0.62. Three regimes drive the variation.
First, normal markets (60-day correlation 0.65-0.85): XOM trades as a high-quality dividend stock with cyclical exposure. The S&P broad-market beta dominates oil-specific factors. Second, oil-shock regimes (correlation 0.20-0.40, current April 2026): oil-specific factors dominate equity beta. The 2022 oil rally produced 0.25 average correlation; the Iran war Feb-Apr 2026 has produced 0.30-0.40 correlation. Third, oil-decline regimes (correlation 0.40-0.60): oil declines pressure XOM but SPY is range-bound; correlation falls but less than during rallies.
The current 0.42 correlation reflects mid-regime: oil-driven outperformance is occurring but XOM still tracks broader risk-on/risk-off sentiment.
Why XOM Outperformed YTD 2026
XOM's 9 percent year-to-date 2026 gain versus SPY 1 percent is concentrated in February through April. The Iran war began February 2026 and immediately lifted WTI from $73 to $95.85 by April 23, with intraday peaks above $105 during Hormuz disruption. XOM responded with approximately 18 percent gain from early February to late April.
The SPY year-to-date 1 percent reflects offsetting forces. Mega-cap tech (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Nvidia combined approximately 30 percent of SPY) has been roughly flat year-to-date as AI-capex translation questions and Iran war risk weighed. Energy sector +YTD 2026 (only major sector in the green) provided modest support. Financials (~13 percent of SPY) gained approximately 3 percent on JPM record earnings. Consumer discretionary, healthcare, communications all flat-to-down. The result: SPY held near all-time-high $712 set in early April but produced only modest YTD gain.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Exxon Mobil (XOM). Computed from 1,281 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) falls 0.20% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.23%. 129 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 50% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is XOM's position in the S&P 500?+
XOM at $627.67 billion market cap represents approximately 1.3 percent of the S&P 500. Within energy, XOM is the largest component and 22.85 percent of XLE. The S&P 500 energy sector represents approximately 4 percent of the index, with XOM and Chevron together approximately 2.5 percent. The XOM/SPY ratio currently trades at approximately 0.21 (XOM $148.85 / SPY $708). The ratio has ranged from 0.13 in early 2020 (oil collapse) to 0.24 in late 2022 (oil rally to $124). Above 0.22 indicates XOM extended outperformance; below 0.18 indicates SPY-dominated regime.
How correlated are XOM and SPY?+
The 60-day rolling correlation between XOM and SPY varies between 0.20 (oil-shock periods) and 0.85 (normal market conditions). Long-run average is ~0.62. Currently 0.42, reflecting the Iran war oil-shock regime. Three regimes: normal markets (0.65-0.85, broad-market beta dominates), oil-shock regimes (0.20-0.40, current; oil-specific factors dominate), oil-decline regimes (0.40-0.60). The 2022 oil rally produced 0.25 average correlation; the Iran war Feb-Apr 2026 has produced 0.30-0.40 correlation.
Why has XOM outperformed SPY YTD 2026?+
XOM gained 9 percent YTD 2026 versus SPY 1 percent, concentrated in February through April. The Iran war began February 2026 and lifted WTI from $73 to $95.85 by April 23, with intraday peaks above $105. XOM gained ~18 percent from early February to late April. SPY held near all-time-high $712 set in early April but produced only 1 percent YTD: mega-cap tech roughly flat as AI-capex translation questions weighed; energy was the only major sector in the green; financials gained ~3 percent on JPM record earnings; consumer discretionary, healthcare, communications all flat-to-down.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.