Fear & Greed Index vs S&P 500
The CNN Fear & Greed Index closed at 70 on April 28, 2026, just five points below the Extreme Greed threshold. That reading represents a 55-point swing from a month earlier, when the index sat in Extreme Fear at 8 after the Iran war broke out.
Also known as: Crypto Fear & Greed Index (fear greed, crypto fear, fear and greed, crypto sentiment) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
The CNN Fear & Greed Index closed at 70 on April 28, 2026, just five points below the Extreme Greed threshold. That reading represents a 55-point swing from a month earlier, when the index sat in Extreme Fear at 8 after the Iran war broke out. The S&P 500 has rallied alongside, recovering most of its March drawdown to trade near $712. The pair captures a contrarian truth: extreme readings (below 20 or above 80) have historically marked the best entry and exit points in S&P 500 cycles. The middle is mostly noise.
The April 2026 Reading: 70 (Greed)
The CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 70 on April 28, 2026, in the Greed zone five points below the 75 threshold for Extreme Greed. The reading marks a 55-point swing in one month from Extreme Fear levels around 15 in late March, when the index dropped on the Iran war outbreak.
The current configuration places sentiment near the upper end of the post-2022 range but not yet at the contrarian-warning extreme. Historical context: the index has only edged into Extreme Greed (above 75) twice in the past 18 months, and the most recent Extreme Greed reading in November 2021 preceded the 2022 bear market by roughly six weeks. The current 70 is consistent with the late stage of a sentiment recovery, the kind of reading that historically requires another 10 to 15 points of additional Greed before producing serious downside risk.
The Seven Inputs Inside the Index
The Fear & Greed Index aggregates seven sub-indicators, each weighted equally. Stock Price Momentum compares the S&P 500 to its 125-day moving average. Stock Price Strength measures the number of NYSE stocks hitting 52-week highs versus lows. Stock Price Breadth uses the McClellan Volume Summation Index to track advancing versus declining volume. Put/Call Options uses the 5-day average put-to-call ratio: bullish put-buying signals fear, complacent call-buying signals greed. Market Volatility tracks the VIX relative to its 50-day average. Junk Bond Demand uses the spread between investment-grade and high-yield yields: tightening spreads signal greed. Safe Haven Demand compares 20-day equity returns versus Treasury bond returns: equity outperformance signals greed.
The current 70 reading reflects high contributions from momentum and strength (the S&P 500 sits comfortably above its 125-day moving average), while the put/call ratio is showing a mild fear signal. Junk bond demand is contributing the strongest greed signal: HY OAS sits at 280bp near 25-year tights, the textbook configuration for a complacent credit market. No single sub-indicator is at an extreme; the composite reflects broad-based but not euphoric greed.
Why Sentiment Extremes Matter More Than the Middle
The Fear & Greed Index has minimal predictive value when the reading sits between 30 and 70. Mid-range readings reflect normal market conditions where sentiment moves with price action and offers no contrarian information.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Computed from 1,284 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.28% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.22%. 131 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 57% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Fear & Greed Index measure?+
The CNN Fear & Greed Index aggregates seven equally-weighted sub-indicators of investor sentiment: stock price momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put/call options ratio, market volatility (VIX), junk bond demand, and safe haven demand. The composite reading runs from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed). The April 28, 2026 reading is 70 (Greed), five points below the 75 Extreme Greed threshold.
Is below 20 a reliable buy signal?+
Below 20 (Extreme Fear) has historically produced an average plus 8.6 percent S&P 500 return over the following 90 days since 2019, versus an unconditional baseline of approximately plus 2.4 percent, a 6 percentage point contrarian edge per Nationwide Financial research. The signal works on average but is not foolproof. The October 2008 Extreme Fear reading produced negative 23 percent over the next 90 days as the GFC deepened. Sentiment signals work within cyclical regimes; they fail during structural breaks.
What does the current 70 reading mean for SPY?+
A reading of 70 reflects normal-bull-market positioning, not contrarian extremes. At 70, the index has substantial upside before reaching the 75 Extreme Greed threshold and meaningful downside before reaching the 20 Extreme Fear threshold. The 70 reading carries no actionable contrarian signal; SPY positioning should be guided by other inputs at this level. The index would need to break above 80 sustained or below 20 sustained to provide actionable counter-trend information.
Why did the index swing 55 points in a month?
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.