FTSE 100 vs S&P 500
The FTSE 100 is the UK large-cap equity benchmark of 100 most liquid stocks listed on London Stock Exchange. Top weights: AstraZeneca (8.90 percent, healthcare), HSBC Holdings (8.48 percent, financials), Shell (8.24 percent, energy), BP (3.85 percent, energy).
Also known as: FTSE 100 (FTSE, UK equities) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
The FTSE 100 is the UK large-cap equity benchmark of 100 most liquid stocks listed on London Stock Exchange. Top weights: AstraZeneca (8.90 percent, healthcare), HSBC Holdings (8.48 percent, financials), Shell (8.24 percent, energy), BP (3.85 percent, energy). Energy + Materials approximately 22 percent of FTSE 100 vs S&P 500 6 percent. ~70 percent of FTSE 100 revenues are non-GBP. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) tracks cap-weighted S&P 500 with current price $708. The FTSE 100 sits 4.66 percent below all-time high 10,934.90 (set February 27, 2026). FTSE has gained 24 percent over past twelve months and is up nearly 5 percent YTD 2026. The FTSE 100 makes a natural hedge against tech-driven S&P drawdowns through energy, mining, banking, and consumer staples weighting.
The April 2026 Configuration
FTSE 100 closes April 24, 2026 at 10,425.07 (down 0.31 percent from Thursday). The index hit ATH 10,934.90 on February 27, 2026. FTSE has fallen for five straight trading sessions touching a more than two-week low. SPY closes at $708.
FTSE 100 is up nearly 5 percent YTD 2026 and 24 percent over past twelve months. The April 2026 weakness reflects: (1) US-Iran negotiation deadlock, (2) Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed, (3) sector-specific headwinds. Oil price elevation supports Shell + BP (combined ~12 percent of FTSE 100) but pressures industrials.
The combined April 2026 reading: FTSE 100 in clear outperformance phase versus S&P 500. The 5 percent YTD gain plus 24 percent 12-month gain contrasts with SPY YTD -2.5 percent and full S&P 500 in EUR-translated terms approximately flat YTD. The FTSE/SPY ratio has expanded approximately 8-10 percent YTD reflecting UK value-cycle catching up after years of underperformance.
FTSE 100 Composition: Value + Commodities + Dividends
FTSE 100 sector composition (April 2026): Energy approximately 12 percent (Shell 8.24 percent, BP 3.85 percent); Materials/Mining approximately 10 percent (Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Antofagasta); Financials approximately 18 percent (HSBC 8.48 percent, Lloyds, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Prudential, Aviva); Healthcare approximately 11 percent (AstraZeneca 8.90 percent dominant); Consumer Staples approximately 14 percent (Unilever, Diageo, British American Tobacco, Reckitt Benckiser); Consumer Discretionary approximately 5 percent; Industrials approximately 8 percent (BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Compass Group); Telecom approximately 3 percent; Utilities approximately 3 percent; Tech approximately 1 percent (vs S&P 500 ~32 percent tech).
The practical implication: FTSE 100 is a value-and-dividend-yield index with heavy commodity exposure. Dividend yield approximately 3.5-4 percent (vs S&P 500 1.3 percent). Approximately 70 percent of FTSE 100 revenues derive from international operations, making the index highly sensitive to global commodity prices, currency movements, and geopolitical developments.
Key individual names: AstraZeneca (8.90 percent, oncology + pipeline drugs), HSBC (8.48 percent, Asia banking exposure), Shell (8.24 percent, oil + LNG), BP (3.85 percent, oil + transition), GSK (pharma), Unilever (FMCG), Diageo (spirits), Glencore (commodities trading), Rio Tinto (iron ore + copper).
How FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Diverge
FTSE 100 and SPY have fundamentally different sector compositions and macro exposures. FTSE 100 is heavy energy + materials + banking + healthcare; S&P 500 is heavy tech + financials + healthcare + consumer discretionary.
The practical implication: FTSE 100 outperforms during specific macro regimes. Commodity price spikes: FTSE 100 benefits from Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, Glencore exposure. Energy supply tightness (Iran war, Russia-Ukraine): FTSE 100 outperforms substantially. Banking sector strength: HSBC + Lloyds + Barclays leverage to global banking. Healthcare innovation: AstraZeneca pipeline catalysts. Inflation regimes: FTSE 100 outperforms (commodity exposure offsets inflation). Risk-off + flight-to-safety: FTSE 100 outperforms (defensive value characteristics, dividend yield).
S&P 500 outperforms during US tech-led growth narratives, AI capex booms, dollar strength regimes (FTSE 100 GBP weakness adds drag for USD investors), Treasury yield falls (less discount-rate-sensitive than tech).
Correlation between FTSE 100 (USD terms) and SPY averages 0.65-0.80 in normal conditions. During global risk-off correlation rises to 0.85+. During US-specific events correlation drops to 0.40-0.55. Beta of FTSE 100 to SPY: approximately 0.75-1.00 over 2020-2026 (lower than DAX/Euro Stoxx due to value/defensive composition).
The 2024-2026 FTSE Comeback
FTSE 100 gained 24 percent over past twelve months. Key drivers.
Value rotation: FTSE 100 trades at approximately 12x forward earnings vs S&P 500 22x. The valuation gap widened to extreme levels by 2023, attracting value rotation flows. UK equity allocations were near multi-decade lows.
Commodity supercycle: Oil supply tightness (Russia-Ukraine continued, Iran war 2026), industrial metals demand (electrification, AI infrastructure copper), gold safe-haven demand. Shell + BP + Rio Tinto + Glencore + Anglo American benefited.
Banking sector tailwinds: BoE rate hold at 3.75 percent (paused December 2025) provides NIM support. UK CPI 4 percent expectations supports banking earnings.
AstraZeneca momentum: oncology pipeline + Alexion acquisition continued to drive healthcare sector outperformance.
GBP/USD recovery: GBP/USD recovered from 2024 lows ~$1.21 to current $1.345-$1.35 (April 2026). Currency tailwind for USD investors.
The combination has produced approximately 24 percent FTSE 100 gain over 12 months, with FTSE/SPY ratio expanding substantially as UK equity rerated.
FTSE 100 hit ATH 10,934.90 February 27, 2026 marking historic milestone (first time FTSE 100 reached 10,000-plus territory).
How the Pair Performed Through Cycles
Three macro cycle examples of FTSE 100-vs-SPY dynamics. 2010-2015 commodity supercycle end: FTSE 100 rose from 5,400 to 6,500 (+20 percent in GBP terms). SPY rose from $130 to $200 (+54 percent USD). SPY outperformed by ~34 percentage points (commodity-cycle peak in 2011 then decline weighed on FTSE).
2017-2021 US tech dominance: FTSE 100 rose from 7,200 to 7,400 (+3 percent GBP, near-zero USD-translated). SPY rose +109 percent USD. SPY outperformance gap ~106 percent (extreme).
2022 Russia invasion: FTSE 100 fell from 7,650 to 6,800 (-11 percent peak-to-trough). SPY fell 25 percent peak-to-trough. FTSE 100 substantially outperformed SPY (commodity exposure positive in inflation regime + defensive value composition). FTSE/SPY ratio expanded approximately 14 percent during 2022 episode.
2024-2026 FTSE comeback: FTSE 100 from 7,500 (early 2024) to 10,425 (April 2026, +39 percent GBP). SPY from $470 to $708 (+51 percent USD). In USD terms, FTSE 100 +50 percent (GBP/USD also strengthened). Roughly parallel performance with slight SPY edge.
The pattern: SPY outperforms FTSE 100 substantially during US tech-led growth narratives. FTSE 100 outperforms during commodity supercycles, energy supply shocks, and inflation-driven value rotations.
How the Pair Performs in Stress
Stress history shows specific FTSE 100-vs-SPY patterns. 2008-09 GFC: FTSE 100 fell from 6,800 to 3,500 (-49 percent peak-to-trough); SPY fell 57 percent. FTSE 100 outperformed by approximately 8 percentage points (less tech exposure).
2011 European debt crisis: FTSE 100 fell from 6,100 to 5,000 (-18 percent); SPY fell 19 percent. Roughly parallel decline.
2016 Brexit referendum: FTSE 100 actually rose 8 percent following June 23, 2016 vote (despite GBP -11 percent in 13 days) due to FTSE 100 ~70 percent international revenues and commodity composition. SPY rose 2 percent same period. FTSE 100 outperformed substantially in GBP terms; underperformed in USD terms due to GBP depreciation.
2020 COVID flash crash: FTSE 100 fell from 7,400 to 5,000 (-32 percent March 2020); SPY fell 34 percent. Roughly parallel.
2022 Russia invasion: FTSE 100 -11 percent peak-to-trough; SPY -25 percent. FTSE 100 outperformed +14 percent (commodity exposure positive).
2026 Iran war: FTSE 100 fell five sessions to 10,425 (-4.66 percent from ATH 10,934); SPY down ~8 percent peak-to-trough. FTSE 100 modestly outperformed (Shell + BP energy tailwind partially offset by Iran-driven risk-off).
The pattern: FTSE 100 outperforms SPY during commodity supercycles and energy supply shocks. The pair compresses during US-led growth phases and tech rallies.
Volatility and Trading
FTSE 100 realized volatility approximately 13-18 percent annualized vs SPY 13-18 percent. Roughly equal volatility profiles. The lower FTSE volatility (relative to DAX/CAC 40) reflects defensive value composition with high dividend yield providing buffer.
60-day rolling correlation between FTSE 100 (USD terms) and SPY averages 0.65-0.80 (positive but variable). During global risk-off correlation rises to 0.85+. During US-specific events correlation drops to 0.40-0.55. Beta of FTSE 100 to SPY approximately 0.75-1.00 over 2020-2026.
For pair-trade implementation, FTSE 100 exposure through EWU ETF (iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, USD-quoted), HEWU (iShares Currency Hedged United Kingdom, currency-hedged), Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (European-listed), or FTSE 100 futures (Z on ICE Liffe). UK equity ADRs through major names: BTI (British American Tobacco), BP, SHEL (Shell), AZN (AstraZeneca), HSBC. SPY exposure through SPY ETF, IVV, or VOO.
The pair has produced cyclical returns. 2024-2026 long FTSE short SPY (USD) gained roughly parallel (no major edge). 2017-2021 long SPY short FTSE gained 100+ percentage points (US tech dominance era). 2022 Russia long FTSE short SPY gained 14 percentage points.
The GBP/USD Component
FTSE 100 USD performance is heavily affected by GBP/USD direction. The 2016-2020 era of GBP weakness (post-Brexit) hurt FTSE 100 USD returns despite FTSE 100 GBP performance being acceptable.
2024-2026 GBP recovery: GBP/USD rose from 2024 lows of $1.21 to $1.345-$1.35 (April 2026), +11 percent currency tailwind for USD investors. The recovery reflects: (1) BoE relative tightness vs Fed (BoE held at 3.75 percent vs Fed at 3.50-3.75 percent - effectively parallel but BoE less likely to cut); (2) UK CPI 4 percent expectations creating some sticky inflation premium; (3) global risk appetite supporting carry trades.
The practical implication: USD-based investors get FTSE 100 GBP performance plus GBP/USD currency move. Currency-hedged ETFs (HEWU) remove the FX exposure but lock in BoE/Fed differential. Watching GBP/USD direction is critical for USD-based FTSE positioning.
Forward-looking: GBP/USD direction depends on BoE/Fed policy divergence. BoE rate hike paths favor GBP. Fed cut paths favor GBP. Sustained GBP/USD move above $1.40 would meaningfully boost FTSE USD returns; below $1.30 would compress them.
Reading the Pair as a Trading Tool
For pair traders comparing FTSE 100 to SPY, focus on relative performance ratios in common currency. Convert to USD for like-for-like comparison.
Long FTSE 100 / short SPY (USD) captures commodity supercycle + value rotation scenarios: benefits from oil supply tightness (Shell, BP), industrial metals demand (Rio Tinto, Glencore), AstraZeneca pipeline catalysts, BoE policy stability, GBP/USD strength, US tech multiple compression.
Long SPY / short FTSE 100 captures continued US tech dominance: benefits from AI capex narrative, Fed cut paths weakening GBP, commodity price weakness, US growth outperformance.
Position sizing: FTSE 100 13-18 percent annualized vol vs SPY 13-18 percent (parallel). Pair has produced cyclical returns: 2024-2026 roughly parallel; 2022 Russia long FTSE short SPY +14pp; 2017-2021 long SPY short FTSE +100pp.
Most actionable when commodity price direction divergent from US tech narrative. April 2026 setup: oil price elevated (Iran war), value rotation favoring FTSE, GBP/USD strong. Setup favors continued FTSE outperformance unless Iran ceasefire normalizes oil + AI narrative reasserts.
How FTSE-vs-SPY Compares to Other International Pairs
FTSE 100/SPY captures UK-specific value + commodity + banking exposure. Compared to other international pairs.
Vs DAX/SPY: DAX is Germany-only with industrial concentration. FTSE 100 has commodity + banking concentration. Different sector tilts: DAX cyclical industrial; FTSE value commodity.
Vs CAC 40/SPY: CAC 40 is France with luxury concentration. FTSE 100 is UK with energy + banking + healthcare. Different consumer/industrial mix.
Vs Euro Stoxx 50/SPY: Euro Stoxx 50 is broader eurozone. FTSE 100 is non-eurozone (UK). FTSE has different currency dynamics (GBP vs EUR), different sector composition (more commodity-heavy).
Vs EFA/SPY: EFA (developed ex-US) broader proxy including UK, Germany, France, Japan. FTSE 100 is UK subset within EFA. EFA captures broader DM rotation.
Vs EWU/SPY: EWU (iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF) broader UK exposure (60+ stocks). FTSE 100 narrower (top 100). EWU is the USD-tradable broader UK exposure.
For allocator monitoring, FTSE 100/SPY serves as the UK value + commodity vs US tech gauge. April 2026 reading: FTSE 100 +5 percent YTD vs SPY -2.5 percent YTD, +24 percent 12-month vs SPY mixed. UK comeback era. Pair complements DAX/SPY (Germany industrial), CAC 40/SPY (France luxury), Euro Stoxx 50/SPY (broader eurozone), EFA/SPY (broader DM) for comprehensive country-rotation read.
Forward View: Watch Oil and BoE
FTSE 100 10,425 (April 24 2026, -4.66 percent from ATH 10,934.90 set February 27 2026), SPY $708. FTSE 100 +5 percent YTD, +24 percent past 12 months. Top weights: AstraZeneca 8.90 percent, HSBC 8.48 percent, Shell 8.24 percent, BP 3.85 percent. GBP/USD $1.345-$1.35.
Forward-looking through 2026: oil price direction key catalyst. Iran ceasefire stabilization could compress oil price (negative for Shell + BP). Sustained Strait of Hormuz tension supports oil + FTSE 100. AstraZeneca pipeline catalysts (oncology + autoimmune drug approvals). HSBC + UK banks BoE rate stability supportive. UK consumer staples (Unilever, Diageo) defensive in any growth deceleration.
Risk factors: oil price collapse (negative for Shell + BP); China consumer weakness (negative for HSBC, Unilever, Diageo); GBP/USD reversal; US tech multiple resurgence pulling capital away from value.
Watch oil prices for Shell + BP catalysts. Watch BoE rate decisions (next April 30, 2026). Watch GBP/USD direction (above $1.40 supports translation; below $1.30 hurts). Watch AstraZeneca pipeline announcements. Expected FTSE 100 range-bound 10,300-10,800 absent major catalyst. Mean reversion vs SPY would require oil price collapse + AI narrative resurgence, or commodity supercycle + value rotation continuation.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in FTSE 100. Computed from 1,230 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.46% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.26%. 122 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 61% of them.
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.19% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.26%. 123 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 60% of them.
Past behavior in the tails is descriptive, not predictive. Mean response is the simple arithmetic mean of compounded 5-day forward returns following each trigger event; baseline is the unconditional mean across the full sample window. Edge measures the gap between the two.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are FTSE 100 and SPY?+
FTSE 100 is the UK large-cap equity benchmark of 100 most liquid stocks listed on London Stock Exchange. Currently 10,425 (April 24 2026, -4.66% from ATH 10,934.90 set February 27 2026). +5% YTD; +24% over past 12 months. Top weights: AstraZeneca 8.90% (healthcare), HSBC Holdings 8.48% (financials), Shell 8.24% (energy), BP 3.85% (energy). Energy + Materials ~22% (vs S&P 500 6%). ~70% of FTSE 100 revenues are non-GBP. Dividend yield ~3.5-4% (vs S&P 500 1.3%). SPY tracks cap-weighted S&P 500 at $708. FTSE 100 makes natural hedge against tech-driven SPY drawdowns.
How does FTSE composition differ from SPY?+
FTSE 100 sectors: Energy ~12% (Shell 8.24%, BP 3.85%); Materials/Mining ~10% (Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Glencore); Financials ~18% (HSBC 8.48%, Lloyds, Barclays); Healthcare ~11% (AstraZeneca 8.90%); Consumer Staples ~14% (Unilever, Diageo, BAT, Reckitt Benckiser); Industrials ~8% (BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce); Tech ~1%. SPY: Tech + Communication Services ~35% (mega-cap AAPL, MSFT, NVDA), Healthcare 13%, Financials 13%. FTSE value-and-dividend-yield index with heavy commodity exposure. ~70% FTSE 100 revenues international. SPY tech-growth heavy. Different macro tilts: FTSE value commodity; SPY tech-growth.
How do FTSE 100 and SPY diverge?+
FTSE 100 outperforms during specific macro regimes. Commodity price spikes: benefits Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, Glencore. Energy supply tightness (Iran war, Russia-Ukraine): outperforms substantially. Banking sector strength: HSBC + Lloyds + Barclays. Healthcare innovation: AstraZeneca pipeline. Inflation regimes: outperforms (commodity offsets inflation). Risk-off: outperforms (defensive value, dividend yield). SPY outperforms during US tech-led growth narratives, AI capex booms, dollar strength regimes (GBP weakness adds drag for USD), Treasury yield falls. Correlation 0.65-0.80 normal. Beta 0.75-1.00 (lower than DAX/Euro Stoxx).
What drove the 2024-2026 FTSE comeback?+
(1) Value rotation: FTSE forward P/E ~12x vs SPY 22x. Valuation gap widened to extreme levels by 2023. UK equity allocations near multi-decade lows. (2) Commodity supercycle: Oil supply tightness (Russia-Ukraine, Iran war 2026), industrial metals demand (electrification, AI infrastructure copper). Shell + BP + Rio Tinto + Glencore + Anglo American benefited. (3) Banking tailwinds: BoE rate hold at 3.75% (paused December 2025) NIM support. (4) AstraZeneca momentum: oncology pipeline + Alexion. (5) GBP/USD recovery: $1.21 (2024 lows) to $1.345-$1.35 (April 2026), +11% currency tailwind. Combination drove 24% FTSE 100 gain over 12 months. FTSE hit ATH 10,934.90 February 27 2026 (first 10,000-plus territory).
How does the pair perform through cycles?+
2010-2015 commodity supercycle end: FTSE +20% GBP; SPY +54% USD. SPY outperformed ~34pp. 2017-2021 US tech dominance: FTSE +3% GBP (~zero USD); SPY +109% USD. SPY outperformance ~106pp (extreme). 2022 Russia invasion: FTSE -11% peak-to-trough; SPY -25%. FTSE substantially outperformed (commodity + defensive value). FTSE/SPY ratio expanded ~14%. 2024-2026 FTSE comeback: FTSE +39% GBP; SPY +51% USD. In USD: FTSE +50% (GBP/USD strengthened). Roughly parallel with slight SPY edge. Pattern: SPY outperforms during US tech-led narratives. FTSE outperforms during commodity supercycles, energy supply shocks, inflation-driven value rotations.
How does the pair perform in stress?+
2008-09 GFC: FTSE -49% peak-to-trough; SPY -57%. FTSE outperformed ~8pp (less tech). 2011 European debt: FTSE -18%; SPY -19%. Parallel. 2016 Brexit: FTSE +8% in GBP (despite GBP -11% in 13 days) due to ~70% international revenues + commodity composition. SPY +2%. FTSE outperformed in GBP; underperformed in USD due to GBP depreciation. 2020 COVID: FTSE -32%; SPY -34%. Parallel. 2022 Russia: FTSE -11%; SPY -25%. FTSE outperformed +14% (commodity exposure positive). 2026 Iran war: FTSE -4.66% from ATH; SPY -8%. FTSE modestly outperformed (Shell + BP energy tailwind). Pattern: FTSE outperforms during commodity supercycles + energy supply shocks; compresses during US-led growth + tech rallies.
How does GBP/USD affect the pair?+
FTSE 100 USD performance heavily affected by GBP/USD direction. 2016-2020 GBP weakness (post-Brexit) hurt FTSE 100 USD returns despite acceptable GBP performance. 2024-2026 GBP recovery: GBP/USD rose 2024 lows $1.21 to $1.345-$1.35 (April 2026), +11% currency tailwind for USD investors. Reflects: (1) BoE relative tightness vs Fed (BoE held 3.75% vs Fed 3.50-3.75% paralleled but BoE less likely to cut); (2) UK CPI 4% expectations sticky inflation premium; (3) global risk appetite carry trades. Currency-hedged ETFs (HEWU) remove FX exposure but lock in BoE/Fed differential. Sustained GBP/USD above $1.40 boosts FTSE USD returns; below $1.30 compresses.
How do I trade FTSE 100 vs SPY?+
Long FTSE 100 / short SPY (USD) captures commodity supercycle + value rotation: benefits from oil supply tightness (Shell, BP), industrial metals demand (Rio Tinto, Glencore), AstraZeneca pipeline catalysts, BoE policy stability, GBP/USD strength, US tech multiple compression. Long SPY / short FTSE 100 captures continued US tech dominance: benefits from AI capex narrative, Fed cut paths weakening GBP, commodity price weakness, US growth outperformance. Position sizing: FTSE 100 13-18% vol vs SPY 13-18% (parallel). 2022 Russia long FTSE short SPY +14pp. 2017-2021 long SPY short FTSE +100pp. FTSE exposure: EWU ETF (iShares MSCI UK USD), HEWU (currency-hedged), or FTSE 100 futures.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.