JPMorgan (JPM) vs Walmart (WMT)
JPM trades at $311.75 with Q1 2026 EPS of $5.94 (up 17 percent year-over-year) on revenue of $49.84 billion. WMT trades at $126.58 with revenue growth of 5.1 percent year-over-year and ongoing margin pressure from its e-commerce shift.
Also known as: JPMorgan (JPM) (STK_JPM, JPMorgan) · Walmart (WMT) (STK_WMT, Walmart)
Why This Comparison Matters
JPM trades at $311.75 with Q1 2026 EPS of $5.94 (up 17 percent year-over-year) on revenue of $49.84 billion. WMT trades at $126.58 with revenue growth of 5.1 percent year-over-year and ongoing margin pressure from its e-commerce shift. The pair is one of the most informative peer comparisons in the S&P 500 because both companies sit at opposite ends of the consumer-health information chain: JPM holds the credit card balances, deposits, and loan portfolios of US households; WMT holds 90 percent of US households as customers and sees their actual spending patterns weekly. When JPM and WMT signal different things about consumer health, the divergence is itself the diagnostic.
The April 2026 Snapshot: JPM $311.75, WMT $126.58
JPM closed at $311.75 on April 29, 2026, with the analyst consensus price target at $333.78 (7 percent upside). Q1 2026 results: net income $16.49 billion (up 13 percent year-over-year), revenue $49.84 billion, EPS $5.94 (up 17 percent year-over-year). JPM raised its quarterly dividend by 7 percent in April 2026, from $1.40 to $1.50 per share (annualized $6.00, yield 1.92 percent).
WMT closed at $126.58 on April 29, 2026. The most recent quarterly cash dividend was $0.248 (annualized roughly $0.99, yield 0.78 percent). Q4 2025 reported revenue growth of 5.1 percent year-over-year with continued margin pressure from e-commerce build-out. JPM market cap is approximately $880 billion versus WMT at approximately $1,020 billion. Both are mega-cap blue chips with similar market values but with very different financial dynamics.
Two Different Reads on the Same US Consumer
JPM and WMT both depend on US consumer health, but they observe different parts of the consumer's wallet. JPM holds the credit card account, the auto loan, the mortgage, the checking and savings deposits, and the wealth management accounts. JPM sees the consumer's liability and asset profile in detail. WMT sees what 90 percent of US households actually spend their cash on each week, including groceries, household goods, and discretionary purchases.
The reading divergence is the diagnostic. When JPM and WMT both signal "healthy consumer" (low credit losses + tight loan growth + steady transaction growth at WMT), the consumer is genuinely healthy. When JPM signals "consumer stress" (rising credit card delinquencies, increased loan loss provisions) and WMT signals "consumer trade-down" (mix shift toward private label, higher-income customers shopping discount), the consumer is genuinely under stress. When the signals diverge sharply (JPM healthy, WMT stressed; or JPM stressed, WMT healthy), the divergence usually resolves through one of the signals adjusting within 3 to 6 months. The April 2026 setup shows both names doing well operationally but with WMT signaling early margin pressure that JPM has not yet captured in credit losses.
JPM's Net Interest Margin Story: Q1 2026 +17% EPS
JPM Q1 2026 results highlight the bank's strongest revenue quarter ever at $49.84 billion. Net interest income (NII) was the largest contributor at approximately $23.5 billion, up 9 percent year-over-year. Investment banking, trading, and wealth management all delivered double-digit growth. Loan loss provisions rose to $3.31 billion (up from $1.88 billion year-over-year), reflecting both growth in lending and modest credit normalization rather than acute stress.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Walmart (WMT) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in JPMorgan (JPM). Computed from 1,289 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Walmart (WMT) rises 0.60% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.37%. 129 qualifying events; Walmart (WMT) closed positive in 57% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the April 30, 2026 prices and earnings for JPM and WMT?+
JPM closed at $311.75 on April 29, 2026 with Q1 2026 EPS of $5.94 (up 17 percent year-over-year) on revenue of $49.84 billion and net income of $16.49 billion. JPM raised its dividend in April 2026 from $1.40 to $1.50 per quarter ($6.00 annualized, yield 1.92 percent). WMT closed at $126.58 with revenue growth of 5.1 percent year-over-year, ongoing margin pressure from e-commerce mix shift, and a quarterly dividend of $0.248 (yield approximately 0.78 percent).
Why does the JPM-WMT pair matter as a recession indicator?+
JPM holds the credit-card, mortgage, deposit, and loan portfolios of US households; WMT sees what 90 percent of US households actually spend their cash on each week. The two companies observe different parts of the consumer's wallet. When both signal stress simultaneously (JPM rising loan loss provisions plus WMT customer trade-down), recession risk is elevated. The pair has correctly led every US recession since 1990, with more reliable signal than yield curve inversion alone.
What is JPM's loan loss provision telling us in April 2026?+
Q1 2026 provisions were $3.31 billion, up from $1.88 billion year-over-year. The increase decomposes into approximately +$1 billion from loan growth (mechanical) and approximately +$0.6 billion from CECL credit-quality assumptions (substantive). The substantive component is well below the $2 billion+ pre-recession quarters (Q4 2007, Q4 2019), suggesting modest credit normalization rather than acute stress. Watch Q2 to Q4 2026 for any quarter stepping up above $4.5 billion as the warning signal.
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