Microsoft (MSFT) vs S&P 500
Microsoft traded near $415 in late April 2026, with market capitalization approximately $3.14 trillion. Q2 fiscal 2026 (ended December 2025) revenue was $81.3 billion (up 17 percent YoY), with Microsoft Cloud crossing $51.5 billion and Azure growing 39 percent.
Also known as: Microsoft (MSFT) (STK_MSFT, Microsoft) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
Microsoft traded near $415 in late April 2026, with market capitalization approximately $3.14 trillion. Q2 fiscal 2026 (ended December 2025) revenue was $81.3 billion (up 17 percent YoY), with Microsoft Cloud crossing $51.5 billion and Azure growing 39 percent. SPY closed at $708 on April 23. MSFT represents approximately 5.7 percent of the S&P 500 (second largest holding after NVIDIA at 7.5 to 8 percent). The pair captures the enterprise-AI thesis: MSFT outperformance signals expanding AI infrastructure spending and Copilot adoption; underperformance signals enterprise capex pressure. The April 2026 $110 billion AI capex commitment for fiscal 2026 is a record for any single company in any industry.
MSFT's Position in the S&P 500
Microsoft is the second-largest S&P 500 component at approximately 5.7 percent weight, behind NVIDIA (7.5 to 8 percent). The April 2026 market cap of $3.14 trillion is up from $2.6 trillion at year-end 2024. MSFT has been a top-3 S&P 500 holding for over a decade, with its weight rising from 2.2 percent in 2015 to current levels through sustained outperformance.
The stock's influence on broader index returns is substantial but less concentrated than NVIDIA's. Every 1 percent move in MSFT corresponds to approximately 0.057 percent move in the S&P 500 from index weighting alone. MSFT and NVIDIA combined represent approximately 13 to 14 percent of SPY, meaning AI-related news that moves both stocks produces outsized index moves. The two are highly correlated (NVDA depends on MSFT as one of its largest customers; MSFT depends on NVDA chips for Azure AI capacity).
Azure as the Dominant Growth Engine
Azure cloud revenue grew 39 percent in constant currency in Q2 fiscal 2026 (the quarter ended December 2025). Microsoft Cloud (broader category including Azure plus other commercial cloud) surpassed $51.5 billion in a single quarter for the first time. Azure has been growing 25 to 40 percent quarterly throughout 2024 to 2025, well above the broader cloud market growth rate.
The Azure growth has been driven by AI workloads. AI-specific revenue contribution within Azure has grown from negligible in early 2023 to approximately 15 to 20 percent of Azure revenue by Q2 fiscal 2026. The growth has been supported by exclusive partnerships with OpenAI (Microsoft holds approximately 49 percent economic interest plus exclusive cloud relationship through 2030), enterprise Copilot deployments, and direct AI infrastructure rentals. The Azure growth trajectory is the single most important MSFT financial driver and the strongest argument for sustained MSFT outperformance versus SPY.
The $110 Billion AI Capex Commitment
Microsoft committed approximately $110 to $120 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, the largest single-year capex commitment in any company's history. Q2 fiscal 2026 capex alone hit $37.5 billion, up 66 percent year-on-year. The capex is dominated by data center construction, AI accelerator purchases (largely from NVIDIA), and supporting infrastructure for global Azure and Copilot operations.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Microsoft (MSFT). Computed from 1,281 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.34% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.23%. 129 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 58% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is MSFT's market cap?+
Microsoft traded near $415 in late April 2026, with market capitalization approximately $3.14 trillion. The company is the second-most-valuable in the world after NVIDIA ($5.06 trillion) and ahead of Apple ($3.3 trillion) and Alphabet ($2.7 trillion). MSFT represents approximately 5.7 percent of the S&P 500 (second largest holding after NVIDIA at 7.5 to 8 percent). The market cap reflects fiscal 2026 trajectory with Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17 percent YoY) and accelerating cloud growth.
How fast is Azure growing?+
Azure cloud revenue grew 39 percent in constant currency in Q2 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended December 2025). Microsoft Cloud (broader category) crossed $51.5 billion in a single quarter for the first time. Azure has been growing 25 to 40 percent quarterly through 2024 to 2025, well above the broader cloud market growth rate. AI-specific revenue contribution within Azure has grown from negligible in early 2023 to approximately 15 to 20 percent of Azure revenue by Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by OpenAI compute usage, Copilot deployments, and direct AI infrastructure rentals.
How big is MSFT's AI capex?+
Microsoft committed approximately $110 to $120 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026, the largest single-year capex commitment in any company's history. Q2 fiscal 2026 capex alone hit $37.5 billion (up 66 percent YoY). The capex is dominated by data center construction, NVIDIA AI accelerator purchases, and supporting infrastructure. The central investor debate is whether the capex will translate to corresponding revenue growth: at $110 billion of capex, MSFT needs Azure AI revenue growth above 30 percent to maintain operating margins. April 2026 saw 4 percent stock decline on capex-related employee buyouts.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.