30Y Mortgage Rate vs 30Y Treasury Yield
The Bankrate national-average 30Y fixed APR sat at 6.46 percent on April 28, 2026 against a 30Y Treasury yield near 4.92 percent (FRED DGS30, April monthly average). The ~154 basis point spread is below the pre-2022 long-run average of roughly 150 to 170 basis points (mortgage-to-10Y), but the 30Y-vs-30Y spread is structurally tighter than the conventional mortgage-to-10Y because it removes curve-slope contamination.
Also known as: 30Y Mortgage Rate (mortgage rate, 30 year mortgage, mortgage) · 30Y Treasury Yield (30Y yield, 30 year treasury, long bond)
Why This Comparison Matters
The Bankrate national-average 30Y fixed APR sat at 6.46 percent on April 28, 2026 against a 30Y Treasury yield near 4.92 percent (FRED DGS30, April monthly average). The ~154 basis point spread is below the pre-2022 long-run average of roughly 150 to 170 basis points (mortgage-to-10Y), but the 30Y-vs-30Y spread is structurally tighter than the conventional mortgage-to-10Y because it removes curve-slope contamination. The spread reflects three structural forces working at once: deeply negative MBS convexity (TCW reports current-coupon convexity at minus 3.3, among the most negative readings on record), the lingering effect of Fed quantitative tightening, and the lock-in effect that has frozen housing transaction volume because most outstanding mortgages carry rates well below 5 percent. The structural bid for MBS is weaker than during the 2010 to 2021 era of bank portfolio accumulation and Fed balance-sheet expansion.
The April 2026 Snapshot: 6.46% APR vs 4.92% 30Y
The Bankrate national-average 30Y fixed APR was 6.46 percent on April 28, 2026 (note: the underlying par rate Bankrate reports the same week was 6.40 percent; the 6 basis point gap is points and origination fees baked into the APR). The 30Y Treasury yield was approximately 4.92 percent (FRED DGS30 April 2026 monthly average), sitting above the 10Y Treasury at 4.31 percent (the 30Y to 10Y term-structure premium ran ~60 basis points across the month). The mortgage-APR-to-30Y spread is therefore ~154 basis points.
For context against the conventional mortgage-to-10Y spread (more commonly cited): 6.46 percent minus 4.31 percent equals 215 basis points. The mortgage-to-10Y spread is wider because the comparison ignores the fact that prepayment optionality shortens MBS effective duration well below the stated 30 years. The 30Y-to-30Y comparison is duration-cleaner: both legs nominally mature in 30 years; the spread isolates the option-adjusted spread plus credit and liquidity premia.
Why 30Y vs 30Y Beats the Conventional Mortgage-10Y Pair
The dominant published mortgage-Treasury reference uses the 10Y Treasury as the benchmark. That convention exists because effective MBS duration historically clusters near the 10Y point on the curve once prepayment optionality is priced. The convention is useful for trader-level comparisons but loses information about the term-structure component of the spread.
Using the 30Y Treasury as the benchmark holds nominal maturity equal at 30 years on both legs. The remaining spread is the cleanest available measure of three components: (1) the option-adjusted spread compensating MBS investors for negative convexity from the prepayment option; (2) credit and servicing premium for non-Treasury credit risk and operational overhead; (3) a small liquidity premium because TBA MBS trade actively but with less daily volume than 30Y Treasuries. Spread changes can then be decomposed into curve-slope versus OAS effects in a way the 10Y-benchmarked spread cannot support.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 30Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in 30Y Mortgage Rate. Computed from 258 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 30Y Treasury Yield rises 6.75% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +2.35%. 25 qualifying events; 30Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 76% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the mortgage-Treasury spread on April 28, 2026?+
The Bankrate national-average 30Y fixed APR was 6.46 percent on April 28, 2026 against a 30Y Treasury yield near 4.92 percent (FRED DGS30 April 2026 monthly average), producing a spread of approximately 154 basis points. The conventionally cited mortgage-to-10Y spread is wider at ~215 basis points (10Y Treasury at 4.31 percent). The 30Y benchmark version of the spread is duration-cleaner because both legs nominally mature in 30 years, isolating the option-adjusted spread and credit-liquidity premium without curve-slope contamination.
Why is the spread so much wider than its pre-2022 average?+
Three structural forces. First, MBS current-coupon convexity stands at minus 3.3, the most negative reading on record per TCW research, demanding more option-adjusted spread compensation. Second, Fed quantitative tightening has removed the price-insensitive MBS bid that compressed spreads through the 2010-2021 era. Third, banks have not fully absorbed the Fed gap because tighter capital and liquidity rules disincentivize MBS portfolio growth. The combination has shifted the spread's natural range from the 150-170 basis point pre-2022 norm to roughly 180-220 basis points.
How much would mortgage rates fall if the spread normalized?+
A 100 basis point spread compression with the 30Y Treasury holding at 4.92 percent would take the mortgage APR from 6.46 percent toward roughly 5.46 percent. On a $336,480 loan at the median home price minus 20 percent down, that is approximately $215 less per month in principal-and-interest payments. The realistic 12-month path is probably 30 to 50 basis points of compression unless either Fed MBS QE restarts or a refinance wave resets MBS convexity by triggering substantial repayment of the negative-convexity 6 to 7 percent coupon stack.
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