30Y Mortgage Rate

MORTGAGE30US is the average 30-year fixed-rate conventional conforming mortgage rate, published weekly by Freddie Mac via the Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The series is the most-cited US mortgage rate benchmark and is widely used by mortgage originators, real-estate agents, and macro analysts as the primary affordability gauge for housing.

Why it matters: the 30Y mortgage rate is the single largest determinant of US housing affordability and demand. Every 100bp move in mortgage rates changes the monthly payment on a $400K mortgage by approximately $260, which directly affects home-purchase decisions and refinancing volume. Mortgage rates also affect mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) pricing, the GSE earnings cycle, and consumer-balance-sheet dynamics. The mortgage rate spread to the 10Y Treasury is the cleanest read on credit-cost passthrough in the housing finance system.

MORTGAGE30US is at 6.23% in April 2026 (Freddie Mac PMMS), down from the cycle peak of 7.79% in October 2023 but well above the sub-3% lows of 2020-2021. The 10Y Treasury at 4.31% implies a mortgage-Treasury spread of approximately 192bp, in the high range of the 150-200bp post-GFC normal. The elevated spread reflects MBS-market technicals (Fed not buying MBS, GSE balance-sheet limits) plus duration-extension risk pricing.

The current rate level continues to suppress housing transactions: existing-home sales are near multi-decade lows in turnover terms, and the "lock-in effect" (homeowners with sub-4% mortgages reluctant to sell) constrains supply. The April 29 Fed hold with rising cut probability is supportive for mortgage rates if cuts arrive: every 25bp Fed cut historically translates to roughly 15-20bp of mortgage-rate decline. Watch the 10Y Treasury direction (the cleaner driver) and MBS-OAS spreads for technical signals.

Modern MORTGAGE30US range: 2.65% in January 2021 (all-time low, COVID-era ZIRP), 7.79% in October 2023 (cycle peak), 6.23% in April 2026. Pre-2008 range frequently 5-7%; 1981 peak was 18.6% (Volcker era). The drivers are the 10Y Treasury yield (primary, ~80% of variation), MBS-Treasury OAS spread (technical factor, currently elevated), and prepayment speeds (which affect MBS duration and pricing).

First, the 10Y Treasury yield. Mortgage rates track the 10Y closely; sustained 10Y moves below 4% would push mortgage rates toward 5.5%.

Second, MBS-OAS spread. Currently elevated at ~190bp; compression toward 150bp would lift mortgage rates 30-40bp even with stable 10Y.

Third, Existing Home Sales and Pending Home Sales. Mortgage rates near 6% suppress turnover; sustained rates below 5.5% would unlock volume meaningfully.