Nvidia (NVDA) vs Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Nvidia is the dominant AI infrastructure company; SMH is the broader VanEck Semiconductor ETF covering the 25 largest US-listed semiconductor firms. As of April 24, 2026, NVDA trades near $199.64 while SMH trades near $482.
Also known as: Nvidia (NVDA) (STK_NVDA, Nvidia) · Semiconductors (SMH) (ETF_SMH, semiconductors, semis, chips)
Why This Comparison Matters
Nvidia is the dominant AI infrastructure company; SMH is the broader VanEck Semiconductor ETF covering the 25 largest US-listed semiconductor firms. As of April 24, 2026, NVDA trades near $199.64 while SMH trades near $482. Nvidia accounts for approximately 20 percent of SMH by weight, so outperformance of NVDA vs SMH typically reflects AI-specific dominance over broader semi demand. Nvidia's market cap crossed $4.4 trillion in December 2025 on fiscal 2026 data center revenue of $194 billion (Q3 FY26 Data Center revenue $51.2B, up 66 percent YoY), making it the largest single-stock AI-cycle exposure in public markets.
What NVDA and SMH Hold
NVDA (Nvidia Corporation) is a single-stock position. Nvidia designs GPUs (graphics processing units) and related data center hardware, with its H100, H200, Blackwell B100/B200, and Grace Hopper platforms powering the majority of AI training and inference workloads globally. As of late 2025, Nvidia held approximately 86 percent market share in AI-specific GPUs. The company derives approximately 91 percent of revenue from data centers.
SMH is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF tracking the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, launched December 20, 2011. It holds 25 of the largest US-listed semiconductor companies including Nvidia, TSMC (ADR), Broadcom, AMD, Qualcomm, ASML, Intel, Applied Materials, Micron, and others. Nvidia typically weights 18-22 percent of SMH, TSMC 12-14 percent, Broadcom 8-9 percent, and AMD 5-6 percent. Expense ratio 0.35 percent, AUM approximately $28 billion.
The AI Data Center Story
Nvidia's rise to $4.4 trillion market cap (December 2025) is almost entirely a data center story. Data center revenue grew from approximately $3 billion annually in fiscal 2020 to $194 billion in fiscal 2026 (Nvidia's fiscal year ends in January). Q3 FY26 (calendar Q3 2025) alone posted $51.2 billion in data center revenue, up 66 percent year-over-year. The company's fiscal 2026 total revenue was $57 billion in Q3 alone.
The driver is enterprise and hyperscaler capex on AI training infrastructure. Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, and others have collectively committed hundreds of billions of dollars to data center buildout through 2027-2028. Nvidia's management estimates that data center capex will grow 40 percent annually through 2030, reaching $3-4 trillion in annual spending by the end of the decade. This is the single largest capex cycle in technology history.
Nvidia's Concentration in SMH
Because Nvidia weights roughly 20 percent of SMH by market cap, a 10 percent move in NVDA translates to approximately 2 percent move in SMH holding other constituents constant. The other 80 percent of SMH tracks a broader semiconductor market that includes foundries (TSMC), memory (Micron, SK Hynix via ASML), analog (Texas Instruments, Analog Devices), equipment (Applied Materials, Lam Research, ASML), and legacy logic (Intel, Qualcomm).
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Semiconductors (SMH) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Nvidia (NVDA). Computed from 1,285 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Semiconductors (SMH) falls 0.42% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.62%. 129 qualifying events; Semiconductors (SMH) closed positive in 45% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between NVDA and SMH?+
NVDA is a single-stock position in Nvidia Corporation, the AI GPU leader with ~86 percent market share in AI chips. SMH is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF holding 25 of the largest US-listed semiconductor companies. Nvidia is approximately 20 percent of SMH by weight, with the other 80 percent spread across TSMC (~13 percent), Broadcom (~8 percent), AMD, Qualcomm, ASML, Intel, Micron, and others. Owning SMH gives sector exposure; owning NVDA gives concentrated AI-cycle exposure with higher volatility and upside.
Why has NVDA outperformed SMH so dramatically?+
Since the November 2022 ChatGPT release, Nvidia stock has risen approximately 14x while SMH has risen approximately 3x, an 11-percentage-point compound annual gap that is among the largest single-stock versus sector divergences in modern history. The driver is Nvidia's dominance in AI GPUs, which drove data center revenue from roughly $3 billion annually in fiscal 2020 to $194 billion in fiscal 2026. Hyperscaler AI capex of approximately $500 billion+ annually has concentrated demand on Nvidia chips specifically, rather than spreading across the broader semiconductor sector.
What is Nvidia's current revenue and market cap?+
As of Q3 fiscal 2026 (calendar Q3 2025), Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion (up 66 percent YoY). Full fiscal 2026 data center revenue reached approximately $194 billion. Market capitalization crossed $4.4 trillion in December 2025, making Nvidia the largest company in the world by market cap. As of April 24, 2026, NVDA trades at $199.64, implying a market cap of roughly $4.8 trillion (share count approximately 24.2 billion after dilution and buybacks).
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.